Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

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BogleBuddy12
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Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by BogleBuddy12 »

Preface: Jack Bogle is my hero and the Bogleheads community has changed my life.
However I have friends and family asking me the question: “Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?” They question my unwillingness to embrace cryptocurrencies. They claim it’s the future, and the investing opportunity of a lifetime.

Clearly, Bitcoin is pure speculation. This is not debatable in my view. As Larry Swedroe points out here, there are tons of risks and question marks, and little to no logic for the price movements: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inv ... nopaging=1

However it does seem the patient investor has skyrocketed their investment (if they sold today.)

I am sticking to my ways. But I have trouble articulating my positions when debating with the Bitcoin enthusiast. They seem to “know it all.” (If you’ve ever talked with a Bitcoin lover, you will know what I mean. There seems to be a certain personality that goes along with a speculative investor.)
Last edited by BogleBuddy12 on Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2903490324
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by 2903490324 »

Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?
Yes
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anon_investor
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by anon_investor »

BogleBuddy12 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:00 pm Preface: Jack Bogle is my hero and the Bogleheads community has changed my life.
However I have friends and family asking me the question: “Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?” They question my unwillingness to embrace cryptocurrencies. They claim it’s the future, and the investing opportunity of a lifetime.

Clearly, Bitcoin is pure speculation. This is not debatable in my view. As Larry Swedroe points out here, there are tons of risks and question marks, and little to no logic for the price movements: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inv ... nopaging=1

However it does seem the patient investor has skyrocketed their investment (if they sold today.)

I am sticking to my ways. But I have trouble articulating my positions when debating with the Bitcoin enthusiast.
BHs usually don't stock pick either, but that is all the rage now (just like the late 90s...). Who cares what other people thing, worry about your own investments.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Anon9001 »

It's literally just Tether pumping it.
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Mike Scott
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Mike Scott »

Bitcoin is a sure thing when it is up...
tenkuky
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by tenkuky »

Say what you will about crypto, it has the potential to do good.
See here
https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/u ... loping-and
I saw a news story yesterday on this.
Designairohio
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Designairohio »

I put in an order to sell $1000 of Vtsax this morning and plan to buy Bitcoin. It’s only .0008% of my portfolio so it probably won’t make any difference. Just thought it would be fun to have some skin in the game
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by pasadena »

I think there are many parts to this. There is probably a lack of understanding amongst the "older" generations (beyond Millennials), and the non-tech average person, of what it is, how it works, what it's based on, and frankly, what problem it solves. There's also resistance to change, which is very common and gets worse as we get older. It's easy when you grow up with the new thing, a lot less when you don't. You see it all the time with things like new technology (see: Tesla). Betting on something that *might* become, because you just *believe* in its future, is hard.

But beyond all that, bitcoin, as a single asset type, does go against the Boglehead philosophy of "buying the market" and not buying individual assets, whether it's stocks, or something else. Much more when it's so new, and as such, highly speculative. This philosophy also means staying clear of the buzz, the exponential ups and downs of it. Ultimately, it's about renouncing the extremes in order to ensure you get "enough". And it doesn't get much buzzish (new word!) than Bitcoin.
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nedsaid
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by nedsaid »

Yes, Bogleheads are dinosaurs when it comes to Crypto Currencies. Lots are stuck in the tar pits.

I think there is something to this, I would not advocate sinking huge amounts of money into Bitcoin and other Crypto currencies. It is a speculation. I do however believe that there will be a lot of applications for the technologies if not for the Crypto Currencies themselves. We should keep on open mind.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by ivgrivchuck »

BogleBuddy12 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:00 pm However I have friends and family asking me the question: “Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?” They question my unwillingness to embrace cryptocurrencies. They claim it’s the future, and the investing opportunity of a lifetime.
I never invest in anything that I can't fully understand. Sometimes that means missing out on the next big thing. But it's an important risk control measure. Dinosaur? Maybe.

I still can't understand why encrypted bits on hard-drive which have very few practical use cases would have such an enormous value. So I opt-out. Then again, maybe some smarter person understands it better than me. They'll get rich and I don't. That's capitalism.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by stan1 »

Most Bogleheads don't invest in gold either. A few do, most don't.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Pandemic Bangs »

Designairohio wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:12 pm I put in an order to sell $1000 of Vtsax this morning and plan to buy Bitcoin. It’s only .0008% of my portfolio so it probably won’t make any difference. Just thought it would be fun to have some skin in the game
You're worth $125 million?! I think BH has a winner. You could put in $2,000. Or is it .0008 of your portfolio...? :D

Many of us will invest in things we don't understand. The problem with BTC is that many of us feel we do understand it -- or at least do understand the carnival atmosphere around it. And its evangelists are a turn-off, too. I know I shouldn't let that second piece get in the way. I was going to post about my Coinbase experience and try to get some opinions.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by oldfort »

Bogleheads are dinosaurs, but this isn't bad. There's a certain tendency in the Bitcoin community to exaggerate the costs of the traditional banking system, I can send a check for free, and a tendency to underestimate the costs of Bitcoin in terms of theft, fraud, loss of coins, and exchanging USD to BTC and vice versa.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by ohboy! »

I think what Bogleheads do not want to accept is the fact that their very success is a trend. It took years for index funds to be adopted. That adoption is only recent history. And as much as we know about diversification it is in my opinion an error to not be diversifying into bitcoin AND ethereum. In my limited time investing ~15 years; including individual stocks, bonds, funds, real estate, and precious metals, nothing has come close to the returns I have made with cryptocurrency in the past 4 years. Those returns came with what I would consider a safe allocation of less than 5%. For those wanting to get into crypto I would really advise to buy and hold Ethereum. We are still pretty far from the previous ATH, though it could be recaptured this week at this rate. I have been saying this for the past month but...

edit to add viewtopic.php?p=5659122#p5659122
Just over two weeks ago when Ethereum was $584 I challenged posters to a gamble of avatars. First one to $800. Well Today Ethereum is... quite a bit higher than $800
Last edited by ohboy! on Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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spanky123
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by spanky123 »

Designairohio wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:12 pm I put in an order to sell $1000 of Vtsax this morning and plan to buy Bitcoin. It’s only .0008% of my portfolio so it probably won’t make any difference. Just thought it would be fun to have some skin in the game
That's the general thinking - put a small amount into cryto to ensure that you do not miss out. This is similar to buying a lottery ticket.

What will happen with bitcoin or cryptocurrencies in the future is anyone's guess. If anyone is so sure how this will plays out is delusional.
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Moondawg
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Moondawg »

I guess I don't understand the question because it assumes that all Bogleheads are alike... seems more like a spectrum than carbon copy to me.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by hunoraut »

ivgrivchuck wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:17 pm.

I still can't understand why encrypted bits on hard-drive which have very few practical use cases would have such an enormous value.
Same goes for wampum, saffron, crystalline carbon, paint splatter, “anonymous” street graffiti, beat up 1950s rolexes, or plain white tee-shirts marketed by rappers
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by jibantik »

When most people talk about crypto, I think they are talking about it in the sense of "investing" in it. I don't "invest" in currency, just like I don't "invest" in gold or other metals. I expect a good number of bogleheads are similar in that regard.

I think the concept, or future, of crypto is OK and may serve a purpose. I would not be opposed to using it as a currency assuming it was easy to use and relatively stable, but it's currently it's not, which makes it useless as a general currency.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by hunoraut »

oldfort wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:27 pm Bogleheads are dinosaurs, but this isn't bad. There's a certain tendency in the Bitcoin community to exaggerate the costs of the traditional banking system, I can send a check for free, and a tendency to underestimate the costs of Bitcoin in terms of theft, fraud, loss of coins, and exchanging USD to BTC and vice versa.
Because traditional financial institutions have never been hacked, robbed, engaged in fraud, charged for currency exchange, or for providing other banking services....
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by ribonucleic »

Data point: Buffett got very, very rich without investing in things he didn't understand.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by 1210sda »

BogleBuddy12 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:00 pm Clearly, Bitcoin is pure speculation. This is not debatable in my view. As Larry Swedroe points out here, there are tons of risks and question marks, and little to no logic for the price movements: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inv ... nopaging=1
Boglebuddy, thanks for the link to Larry's column. I wish it weren't 3 yrs old.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Skeeter1 »

hunoraut wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:33 pm
oldfort wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:27 pm Bogleheads are dinosaurs, but this isn't bad. There's a certain tendency in the Bitcoin community to exaggerate the costs of the traditional banking system, I can send a check for free, and a tendency to underestimate the costs of Bitcoin in terms of theft, fraud, loss of coins, and exchanging USD to BTC and vice versa.
Because traditional financial institutions have never been hacked, robbed, engaged in fraud, charged for currency exchange, or for providing other banking services....
+1 But also Bogelheads are used to dealing in valuations, P/E, etc. There is no baseline to compare vs pure gambling and speculation.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by dknightd »

2903490324 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:01 pm
Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?
Yes
true
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am
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by am »

Yes dinosaurs. Some are performance chasers (see threads on international).

Some investors who are real smart and have great track records think it can hit 500k

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin- ... 30545.html

Why not put 1% of portfolio in that you had in bonds? That’ll move the needle if it gets to 6 figures, if not then not a big loss especially since bonds have a negative real return going forward.
Last edited by am on Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Designairohio
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Designairohio »

Pandemic Bangs wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:23 pm
Designairohio wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:12 pm I put in an order to sell $1000 of Vtsax this morning and plan to buy Bitcoin. It’s only .0008% of my portfolio so it probably won’t make any difference. Just thought it would be fun to have some skin in the game
You're worth $125 million?! I think BH has a winner. You could put in $2,000. Or is it .0008 of your portfolio...? :D

Many of us will invest in things we don't understand. The problem with BTC is that many of us feel we do understand it -- or at least do understand the carnival atmosphere around it. And its evangelists are a turn-off, too. I know I shouldn't let that second piece get in the way. I was going to post about my Coinbase experience and try to get some opinions.
.08% sorry I got you excited 😝
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by ohboy! »

Skeeter1 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:39 pm
hunoraut wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:33 pm
oldfort wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:27 pm Bogleheads are dinosaurs, but this isn't bad. There's a certain tendency in the Bitcoin community to exaggerate the costs of the traditional banking system, I can send a check for free, and a tendency to underestimate the costs of Bitcoin in terms of theft, fraud, loss of coins, and exchanging USD to BTC and vice versa.
Because traditional financial institutions have never been hacked, robbed, engaged in fraud, charged for currency exchange, or for providing other banking services....
+1 But also Bogelheads are used to dealing in valuations, P/E, etc. There is no baseline to compare vs pure gambling and speculation.
I don't think bogleheads care much about p/e ratios or valuations in determining if they hold the market from what I've seen here. I believe current p/e ratio of s&p 500 is 35 years profit. Imagine if I had a small business that profited $50k a year (edited to clarify) and I could sell it for 1.75m. Because someday my business will grow right? Sure we may make the comparison to baseline, but fundamentally the numbers do not make sense as a business.
Last edited by ohboy! on Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Watty
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Watty »

Just a quibble but since a broad index fund owns a bit of everything Bogleheads have at least gotten a bit of the bitcoin pie by owning companies that sell electricity and computer hardware to bitcoin miners. If bitcoin does actually reduce transactions costs(I am skeptical) then the companies we own in index funds will benefit.
Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?
You are asking that like being a dinosaur is a bad thing.

As a group dinosaurs were extremely successful and likely would still be around today if a meteor that might have been 25 miles in diameter did not hit the earth at an unusually bad spot and an unusually bad angle.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/news ... h-science/
Last edited by Watty on Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:50 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Valuethinker
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Valuethinker »

BogleBuddy12 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:00 pm Preface: Jack Bogle is my hero and the Bogleheads community has changed my life.
However I have friends and family asking me the question: “Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?” They question my unwillingness to embrace cryptocurrencies. They claim it’s the future, and the investing opportunity of a lifetime.

Clearly, Bitcoin is pure speculation. This is not debatable in my view. As Larry Swedroe points out here, there are tons of risks and question marks, and little to no logic for the price movements: https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inv ... nopaging=1

However it does seem the patient investor has skyrocketed their investment (if they sold today.)

I am sticking to my ways. But I have trouble articulating my positions when debating with the Bitcoin enthusiast. They seem to “know it all.” (If you’ve ever talked with a Bitcoin lover, you will know what I mean. There seems to be a certain personality that goes along with a speculative investor.)
Fear Of Missing Out. FOMO.

People don't understand cryptocurrencies, they just know that they are going up.

Let's say most of us have seen a few investment fads in our time.

Anything for which the investment case is that it will generate no cash flows, but it will be more valuable because someone else will covet it more highly, is in the realm of pure speculation.

If people find a way to leverage that investment - to borrow directly or indirectly against it - then we have the makings of a bubble.

Don't debate. Walk away. Wish them luck - and suggest they take half their winnings off the table. You've not "won" at the Casino until you get out the front door with chips cashed in.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Valuethinker »

ohboy! wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:47 pm
Skeeter1 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:39 pm
hunoraut wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:33 pm
oldfort wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:27 pm Bogleheads are dinosaurs, but this isn't bad. There's a certain tendency in the Bitcoin community to exaggerate the costs of the traditional banking system, I can send a check for free, and a tendency to underestimate the costs of Bitcoin in terms of theft, fraud, loss of coins, and exchanging USD to BTC and vice versa.
Because traditional financial institutions have never been hacked, robbed, engaged in fraud, charged for currency exchange, or for providing other banking services....
+1 But also Bogelheads are used to dealing in valuations, P/E, etc. There is no baseline to compare vs pure gambling and speculation.
I don't think bogleheads care much about p/e ratios or valuations in determining if they hold the market from what I've seen here. I believe current p/e ratio of s&p 500 is 35 years profit. Imagine if I had a small business that made $50k and I could sell it for 1.75m. Because someday my business will grow right? Sure we may make the comparison to baseline, but fundamentally the numbers do not make sense as a business.
Does that PE ratio include loss makers? By lowering total EPS, that would increase the PE.

It all depends on expected EPS growth. In addition, the opportunity cost of investing is very low, as 10 year US Treasury bonds are giving negative real yields.

Thus any speculative asset goes up. It just so happens that there are companies, in the S&P500, that will double their EPS in 10 years. And with a very low interest rate, the market is legit to look 10, 20 years out.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by ohboy! »

Valuethinker wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:50 pm
ohboy! wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:47 pm
Skeeter1 wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:39 pm
hunoraut wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:33 pm
oldfort wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:27 pm Bogleheads are dinosaurs, but this isn't bad. There's a certain tendency in the Bitcoin community to exaggerate the costs of the traditional banking system, I can send a check for free, and a tendency to underestimate the costs of Bitcoin in terms of theft, fraud, loss of coins, and exchanging USD to BTC and vice versa.
Because traditional financial institutions have never been hacked, robbed, engaged in fraud, charged for currency exchange, or for providing other banking services....
+1 But also Bogelheads are used to dealing in valuations, P/E, etc. There is no baseline to compare vs pure gambling and speculation.
I don't think bogleheads care much about p/e ratios or valuations in determining if they hold the market from what I've seen here. I believe current p/e ratio of s&p 500 is 35 years profit. Imagine if I had a small business that made $50k and I could sell it for 1.75m. Because someday my business will grow right? Sure we may make the comparison to baseline, but fundamentally the numbers do not make sense as a business.
Does that PE ratio include loss makers? By lowering total EPS, that would increase the PE.

It all depends on expected EPS growth. In addition, the opportunity cost of investing is very low, as 10 year US Treasury bonds are giving negative real yields.

Thus any speculative asset goes up. It just so happens that there are companies, in the S&P500, that will double their EPS in 10 years. And with a very low interest rate, the market is legit to look 10, 20 years out.
All of your justifications apply to bitcoin :sharebeer
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by finite_difference »

The Bogleheads philosophy is about responsibly protecting and growing people’s life savings. There’s a strong fiduciary responsibility embedded in the Bogleheads ethos. Bogleheads is about investing, not speculating.

Bitcoin is extremely risky. If someone has fiduciary duty, they shouldn’t be putting your money into Bitcoin. It has done well, but that doesn’t mean it will always do well. It could literally go to zero. The total stock market and bond market is a much safer long term investment.

If you have a small allocation to Bitcoin, like 5% or less, then I think it can be justifiable if otherwise you are adhering to Boglehead principles (LBYM, low cost passive indexing, etc.). You have to be very careful, and aware of the fact that it could go to zero.

So I just don’t think Bitcoin is great general advice for the average investor. That could change in the future. Maybe cryptocurrency will become a standard currency like any other. Or maybe it will be globally outlawed.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by spanky123 »

However it does seem the patient investor has skyrocketed their investment (if they sold today.)
Yea - $100 invested in 2011 is worth $3,257,100. :moneybag
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Valuethinker »

nedsaid wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:17 pm Yes, Bogleheads are dinosaurs when it comes to Crypto Currencies. Lots are stuck in the tar pits.

I think there is something to this, I would not advocate sinking huge amounts of money into Bitcoin and other Crypto currencies. It is a speculation. I do however believe that there will be a lot of applications for the technologies if not for the Crypto Currencies themselves. We should keep on open mind.
You can keep "an open mind" on the concept (although I can tell you straight off why Bitcoin won't work as a currency - it can't handle the transactions volume; other cryptos may be better designed) without for one moment thinking these are "investments".

Central Banks may well introduce an electronic currency - in fact I think that will be the first big mainstream use.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Valuethinker »

finite_difference wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:51 pm The Bogleheads philosophy is about responsibly protecting and growing people’s life savings. There’s a strong fiduciary responsibility embedded in the Bogleheads ethos. Bogleheads is about investing, not speculating.

Bitcoin is extremely risky. If someone has fiduciary duty, they shouldn’t be putting your money into Bitcoin. It has done well, but that doesn’t mean it will always do well. It could literally go to zero. The total stock market and bond market is a much safer long term investment.

If you have a small allocation to Bitcoin, like 5% or less, then I think it can be justifiable if otherwise you are adhering to Boglehead principles (LBYM, low cost passive indexing, etc.). You have to be very careful, and aware of the fact that it could go to zero.

So I just don’t think Bitcoin is great general advice for the average investor. That could change in the future. Maybe cryptocurrency will become a standard currency like any other. Or maybe it will be globally outlawed.
In a world where returns are likely to be 5% or below, per annum, generally - given where interest rates are, where markets are - then losing 5% of your portfolio, say, and all future gains on that 5%, is going to really hurt.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by dmcmahon »

jibantik wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:33 pm When most people talk about crypto, I think they are talking about it in the sense of "investing" in it. I don't "invest" in currency, just like I don't "invest" in gold or other metals. I expect a good number of bogleheads are similar in that regard.

I think the concept, or future, of crypto is OK and may serve a purpose. I would not be opposed to using it as a currency assuming it was easy to use and relatively stable, but it's currently it's not, which makes it useless as a general currency.
This is my feeling too. I do understand it from a technical standpoint, and I also can see the usefulness of blockchain. But that said, it still appears to be speculation, that is, relying on increasing rarity, rather than putting capital to work in an asset that over time yields more than the cost to produce it. In that sense not like buying a tractor for your farm, and no different that fine art, commodities, or even land. At least with those other things, there are fundamentals of demand for commodities and land, or a long history for most collectibles.

So I don’t see any real intrinsic value here. Years ago I spent a few 10s of dollars on some magic items for an online game I was into. This game did not offer in game purchases, you had to find the items or trade with someone who had found them. So people began farming for items in developing countries and then selling the items cheaply on eBay. In this case, even though the item is entirely virtual, the intrinsic value was the enormous time saved in trying to find it yourself, and to boot there was a functioning market of buyers and sellers to help price discovery.

I guess that puts me in the dinosaur camp, but I can see the perspective of someone putting a small percentage of their savings into crypto at this point in history, with profligate governments printing money worldwide.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Tamalak »

Those shoeshine boys sure are excited about bitcoin :twisted:

Bitcoin is a currency. It isn't designed to make money, it's designed to be money. Since it's such a new concept, the market is wildly uncertain as to how much value the economy will want bitcoin to represent in the future. So the price swings wildly.. and in the past few years it's swung up.

But it's still a currency. Its average expected future return is zero.
Last edited by Tamalak on Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Kenkat »

Regardless of the long term prospects for Bitcoin, the only reason most people are currently interested in it is because the price has recently gone up.
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by MathWizard »

Who cares if we are called dinosaurs for not jumping on a bandwagon?

Buffett was said to have list his touch in the 1990's because he was not investing in internet stocks.

He looked a lot better after the tech crash.

I invest in stocks because I am buying a piece of a company, and have millions of workers trying to make their companies profitable, and I get a portion of the earnings. It is the value of what is created by the workers that creates value,hence the profits.

Bitcoin does not create value like a company does, so there is no underlying reason that it goes up. Bitcoin smells more like tulips to me.
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aktx97
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by aktx97 »

I just prefer owning assets with internal rates of return like the dividends from stocks, mutuals and ETFS and rent from real estate.
Keep calm and stay the course.
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nedsaid
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by nedsaid »

Valuethinker wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:52 pm
nedsaid wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:17 pm Yes, Bogleheads are dinosaurs when it comes to Crypto Currencies. Lots are stuck in the tar pits.

I think there is something to this, I would not advocate sinking huge amounts of money into Bitcoin and other Crypto currencies. It is a speculation. I do however believe that there will be a lot of applications for the technologies if not for the Crypto Currencies themselves. We should keep on open mind.
You can keep "an open mind" on the concept (although I can tell you straight off why Bitcoin won't work as a currency - it can't handle the transactions volume; other cryptos may be better designed) without for one moment thinking these are "investments".

Central Banks may well introduce an electronic currency - in fact I think that will be the first big mainstream use.
Most currencies are already electronic, I still carry small amounts of cash but I make most all payments electronically or by card. I get my paychecks electronically deposited into my bank account and in turn I send out my bills electronically. I write very few checks anymore.
A fool and his money are good for business.
am
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by am »

MathWizard wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:58 pm Who cares if we are called dinosaurs for not jumping on a bandwagon?

Buffett was said to have list his touch in the 1990's because he was not investing in internet stocks.

He looked a lot better after the tech crash.

I invest in stocks because I am buying a piece of a company, and have millions of workers trying to make their companies profitable, and I get a portion of the earnings. It is the value of what is created by the workers that creates value,hence the profits.

Bitcoin does not create value like a company does, so there is no underlying reason that it goes up. Bitcoin smells more like tulips to me.
How about gold? It’s been around forever, has no underlying reason it goes up but it does and offers returns.
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spanky123
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by spanky123 »

finite_difference wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:51 pm So I just don’t think Bitcoin is great general advice for the average investor. That could change in the future. Maybe cryptocurrency will become a standard currency like any other. Or maybe it will be globally outlawed.
It is plausible the cryptocurrency could become a new standard someday. Currently, it is making a lot of promises according to this paper: The False Premises and Promises of Bitcoin
HenryPorter
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by HenryPorter »

Everybody getting into bitcoin and getting rich off of it ruins the comps. I hope the new found wealth does not drive up the cost of everything ~/s
rebellovw
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by rebellovw »

Tamalak wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:55 pm Those shoeshine boys sure are excited about bitcoin :twisted:

Bitcoin is a currency. It isn't designed to make money, it's designed to be money. Since it's such a new concept, the market is wildly uncertain as to how much value the economy will want bitcoin to represent in the future. So the price swings wildly.. and in the past few years it's swung up.

But it's still a currency. Its average expected future return is zero.
Agreed.
eucalyptus
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by eucalyptus »

I too am much smarter and more knowledgeable than old people. Tesla!
pasadena wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:14 pm I think there are many parts to this. There is probably a lack of understanding amongst the "older" generations (beyond Millennials), and the non-tech average person, of what it is, how it works, what it's based on, and frankly, what problem it solves. There's also resistance to change, which is very common and gets worse as we get older. It's easy when you grow up with the new thing, a lot less when you don't. You see it all the time with things like new technology (see: Tesla). Betting on something that *might* become, because you just *believe* in its future, is hard.
Prahasaurus
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Prahasaurus »

finite_difference wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:51 pm The Bogleheads philosophy is about responsibly protecting and growing people’s life savings. There’s a strong fiduciary responsibility embedded in the Bogleheads ethos. Bogleheads is about investing, not speculating.

Bitcoin is extremely risky. If someone has fiduciary duty, they shouldn’t be putting your money into Bitcoin. It has done well, but that doesn’t mean it will always do well. It could literally go to zero. The total stock market and bond market is a much safer long term investment.

If you have a small allocation to Bitcoin, like 5% or less, then I think it can be justifiable if otherwise you are adhering to Boglehead principles (LBYM, low cost passive indexing, etc.). You have to be very careful, and aware of the fact that it could go to zero.

So I just don’t think Bitcoin is great general advice for the average investor. That could change in the future. Maybe cryptocurrency will become a standard currency like any other. Or maybe it will be globally outlawed.
Great post, I completely agree.
Asset Allocation: BTC, ETH, VT
oldfort
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by oldfort »

hunoraut wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:33 pm
oldfort wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 1:27 pm Bogleheads are dinosaurs, but this isn't bad. There's a certain tendency in the Bitcoin community to exaggerate the costs of the traditional banking system, I can send a check for free, and a tendency to underestimate the costs of Bitcoin in terms of theft, fraud, loss of coins, and exchanging USD to BTC and vice versa.
Because traditional financial institutions have never been hacked, robbed, engaged in fraud, charged for currency exchange, or for providing other banking services....
I'm not aware of any bank in the US, which has ever had money stolen in a hack. Insolvent banks are ultimately backstopped by FDIC insurance and the Federal Reserve. Who makes you whole if your cryptocurrency exchange goes bankrupt?
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vitaflo
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by vitaflo »

Given the only time people go on and on about Bitcoin here is after it has huge gains (strangely, when it tanks everyone is mum), I don't even know what this place is going to be like if and when International significantly outperforms US for a good stretch of time. It's going to be nauseating.
Johm221122
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by Johm221122 »

HenryPorter wrote: Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:03 pm Everybody getting into bitcoin and getting rich off of it ruins the comps. I hope the new found wealth does not drive up the cost of everything ~/s
All the money made comes directly from someone else. It's a zero sum game and worse if you consider taxes and fees. It's simply people trading money for bitcoin.
KlangFool
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Re: Are Bogleheads dinosaurs when it comes to Bitcoin?

Post by KlangFool »

Folks,

Please do not assume that older folks do not technically understand Bitcoin. I filed patents on related area. I just do not believe that it is a good bet. I choose to gamble on physical Silver and Gold instead. It is possible that some older folks technically understand the limitation of the existing Bitcoin implementation too well.


KlangFool
Last edited by KlangFool on Sun Jan 03, 2021 2:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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