Welcome to the 2021 Boglehead Contest designed to demonstrate how difficult it is to forecast future stock prices.
Recap of 2020 contest
On January 1, 2020 the S&P 500 Index was 3230.78 and on December 31, 2020 it closed at 3756.07. Mlretired made a remarkable winning guess that the S&P 500 Index would close at 3755.00, out-guessing 652 Bogleheads and 12 Wall Street expert forecasters.
2020 Boglehead Contest
2021 Boglehead Contest
- Forecast (below) what you think will be the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2021.
- Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
- In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
- Registration ends 11:00 PM ET, January 10, 2021.
Taylor and Ralph Arvesen (programmer)
Update, details about the contest from Barry Barnitz:
The 2021 Boglehead Contest