ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

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TheBoringInvestor
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by TheBoringInvestor »

drk wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:30 pm
bluerafters wrote: Sun Mar 07, 2021 2:25 pm Anyone actively purchasing VXUS/VTIAX at these levels? I've got a couple grand or two just sitting an a Vanguard brokerage account earmarked for something with a 5/10 year time horizon...
Automatically, if not actively: my regular 401k purchases continue to go 50/50 VFIAX/VTIAX.
I'm right there with you. As soon as my 401k started offering cheap index funds years ago, I built my 60/40 US/intl split (with 10% bonds) and plow money in every paycheck. Been waiting patiently for a mean-reversion with some ex-US outperformance. Looking forward to this decade with my fingers crossed. Either way, I'm sticking with my IPS.

2020 was a good year for DCA investors. Here's to many more buying opportunities.
:sharebeer

Now when should I make my Roth IRA contribution this year... I usually wait for mid March. I guess I'll have to just do it next week and pray it works out in the end. Even if I get hit with the Nedsaid effect, I'm a long way from retirement :moneybag :greedy :moneybag

TBI
Last edited by TheBoringInvestor on Thu Mar 11, 2021 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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gtwhitegold
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by gtwhitegold »

I've been 50/50 between US and International stocks for a while now and I see no reason to change at this point. I'm splitting my work plan contributions between international developed markets and US Small Caps and buying emerging markets in my Roth IRAs and taxable accounts. I also try to maintain proper asset allocation through new contributions.

I do expect international stocks to catch up some in my investing period, so I'm not too concerned about their recent underperformance.
Williams57
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Williams57 »

What is happening to VXUS in afterhours??
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jason2459
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Williams57 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:16 pm What is happening to VXUS in afterhours??
Nice little jump there.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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anon_investor
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by anon_investor »

jason2459 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:11 pm
Williams57 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:16 pm What is happening to VXUS in afterhours??
Nice little jump there.
And it's gone...
Robot Monster
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

anon_investor wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:14 pm
jason2459 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:11 pm
Williams57 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:16 pm What is happening to VXUS in afterhours??
Nice little jump there.
And it's gone...
This confuses me. It's the weekend. VXUS doesn't have afterhours on the weekend. VXUS goes home and crashes on the couch.
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anon_investor
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by anon_investor »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:19 pm
anon_investor wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:14 pm
jason2459 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:11 pm
Williams57 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:16 pm What is happening to VXUS in afterhours??
Nice little jump there.
And it's gone...
This confuses me. It's the weekend. VXUS doesn't have afterhours on the weekend. VXUS goes home and crashes on the couch.
I never pay attention to aftermarket, it often times has little impact for the next trading day.
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midareff
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by midareff »

PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
Nathan Drake
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
It wouldn't take much for that catch up rate to materialize. Over the past 10 years, US had 14.42% CAGR while exUS was 5.56%. While this trend could still continue, it's less likely to. Do you expect to live over the next few decades?
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
DB2
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by DB2 »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:19 pm
anon_investor wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:14 pm
jason2459 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:11 pm
Williams57 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:16 pm What is happening to VXUS in afterhours??
Nice little jump there.
And it's gone...
This confuses me. It's the weekend. VXUS doesn't have afterhours on the weekend. VXUS goes home and crashes on the couch.
Every country minus U.S. - makes for a long week. Give VXUS a break!
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midareff
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by midareff »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:40 pm
midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
It wouldn't take much for that catch up rate to materialize. Over the past 10 years, US had 14.42% CAGR while exUS was 5.56%. While this trend could still continue, it's less likely to. Do you expect to live over the next few decades?
I'm 73 Nathan Drake.... I'll not bore you with the medicals and conditions, next decade maybe... next few.. LOL, that's past existing medical science.
Aaand...it'sgone
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

Williams57 wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 5:16 pm What is happening to VXUS in afterhours??
Yeah, does anyone know why it sometimes jumps straight up at the end of the day, and often straight down at the start of the day? Is it something to do with how the fund is managed day-to-day?

Also, my October VXUS calls are now ITM! Yay!
Tamalak
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Tamalak »

I've noticed VXUS "after hours" have done ridiculous things. I often see them jump 2-5% or plunge just as much. None of this actually materializes at the next market open.
Nathan Drake
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

Soaring today. Emerging markets strongly positive
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Tamalak
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Tamalak »

Solid rotation into VXUS. Only need 4% more to catch up to VTI this year :wink:
Vtsax100
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

Nice. Maybe it will eventually make it back to 20% for me.
Ramjet
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Ramjet »

midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
It only matter going forward, catching-up is irrelevant
Blue456
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Blue456 »

Good day for foreign stocks today.
Robot Monster
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Blue456 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 5:03 pm Good day for foreign stocks today.
Especially Emerging Markets. +1.45%! And a nice opportunity to remind everyone:

"Bogle said recently that if he were to invest internationally, it would be in emerging markets, but not more than 5 percent." link

I think the US-only folks should live a little on the wild side and go 5% EM.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

abuss368 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 6:36 pm 3 months? When did this start?

Could it be reversion to the mean? Is International finally going to have a day in the sun? Perhaps. I have no doubt that at some point in the future (maybe starting now or already has), that international will perform better (hopefully).

However, international stocks:

35 years since 1986
Less: 3 months ahead of US

34 years and 9 months to catch US!😂

Tony
I'm not investing for the past, so I don't see how this is relevant.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Vtsax100 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 9:23 am Nice. Maybe it will eventually make it back to 20% for me.
When I did invest in Total International, at times it felt like that was all that I was buying!

Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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JonnyDVM
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by JonnyDVM »

Ramjet wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:11 am
midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
It only matter going forward, catching-up is irrelevant
40% International bag holder since 2013 here. Not nearly as bad as some posters but still, c’mon! Let’s go! Time to start flipping the script.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
Nathan Drake
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

JonnyDVM wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 6:58 pm
Ramjet wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:11 am
midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
It only matter going forward, catching-up is irrelevant
40% International bag holder since 2013 here. Not nearly as bad as some posters but still, c’mon! Let’s go! Time to start flipping the script.
So you can complain about your US underperformance instead? Long term investors that believe in diversification shouldn't be concerned about the timing of such matters.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Robot Monster
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

abuss368 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 7:03 pm Will international have a day in the sun?
It had its day in the sun. That would be today. Now it's over. Things are going back to usual e.g. "Japan’s Nikkei 225 falls nearly 2% as Asia-Pacific stocks slip" link

*sigh*
txhill
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by txhill »

abuss368 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 7:03 pm
midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
Wow! I did not realize the difference was that large over 10 years. I recall Jack Bogle’s citing the cumulative difference since 1994.

Will international have a day in the sun? All asset classes eventually do. Could it be different in the future? Perhaps or perhaps not.

It is most important that investors implement a strategy that works for them. Everything else is noise.

Tony
You can tell Tony is a true Boglehead because he has not even checked how international has performed since 1994
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by abuss368 »

txhill wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:51 pm
You can tell Tony is a true Boglehead because he has not even checked how international has performed since 1994
THAT WAS PRICELESS! Actually made me laugh OUT LOUD!😂

Thanks!
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
txhill
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by txhill »

abuss368 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:56 pm
txhill wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:51 pm
You can tell Tony is a true Boglehead because he has not even checked how international has performed since 1994
THAT WAS PRICELESS! Actually made me laugh OUT LOUD!😂

Thanks!
Tony
:sharebeer
Robot Monster
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

abuss368 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:50 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:43 pm
abuss368 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 7:03 pm Will international have a day in the sun?
It had its day in the sun. That would be today. Now it's over. Things are going back to usual e.g. "Japan’s Nikkei 225 falls nearly 2% as Asia-Pacific stocks slip" link

*sigh*
I don’t get it and perhaps I never will. Maybe that is why some investors simply own everything.

I wish international would do much better for sure.

Tony
The Bogle advice to "buy the haystack" gets interpreted by some investors as "simply own everything".
Blue456
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Blue456 »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 5:03 am
abuss368 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:50 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 8:43 pm
abuss368 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 7:03 pm Will international have a day in the sun?
It had its day in the sun. That would be today. Now it's over. Things are going back to usual e.g. "Japan’s Nikkei 225 falls nearly 2% as Asia-Pacific stocks slip" link

*sigh*
I don’t get it and perhaps I never will. Maybe that is why some investors simply own everything.

I wish international would do much better for sure.

Tony
The Bogle advice to "buy the haystack" gets interpreted by some investors as "simply own everything".
Or simply spread the sovereign risk.
NiceUnparticularMan
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by NiceUnparticularMan »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 7:00 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 6:58 pm
Ramjet wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:11 am
midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
It only matter going forward, catching-up is irrelevant
40% International bag holder since 2013 here. Not nearly as bad as some posters but still, c’mon! Let’s go! Time to start flipping the script.
So you can complain about your US underperformance instead? Long term investors that believe in diversification shouldn't be concerned about the timing of such matters.
Yeah, I am not necessarily looking forward to the future threads where the "simple" plan is obviously just to global weight, and any fool still stuck with their ancient fixed 40% ex-U.S. plan is hounded to justify the recent underperformance of their portfolio.

Which actually used to be the dominant vibe back in the day, before the recent underperformance of ex-U.S.
Robot Monster
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

"The ECB is worried about financial stability in the face of 'remarkable exuberance' in markets. A 10% correction in US stocks could 'lead to a significant tightening of euro-area financial conditions,' & high corporate debt loads could prompt stress." link
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by retired@50 »

NiceUnparticularMan wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:25 am Yeah, I am not necessarily looking forward to the future threads where the "simple" plan is obviously just to global weight, and any fool still stuck with their ancient fixed 40% ex-U.S. plan is hounded to justify the recent underperformance of their portfolio.

Which actually used to be the dominant vibe back in the day, before the recent underperformance of ex-U.S.
+1
In my case, 20% international is about all I can muster. I keep adding money, but it keeps falling behind.

Regards,
If liberty means anything at all it means the right to tell people what they do not want to hear. -George Orwell
Blue456
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Blue456 »

Robot Monster wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:30 am "The ECB is worried about financial stability in the face of 'remarkable exuberance' in markets. A 10% correction in US stocks could 'lead to a significant tightening of euro-area financial conditions,' & high corporate debt loads could prompt stress." link
Isn't 10% common correction?
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by JonnyDVM »

Nathan Drake wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 7:00 pm
JonnyDVM wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 6:58 pm
Ramjet wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:11 am
midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
It only matter going forward, catching-up is irrelevant
40% International bag holder since 2013 here. Not nearly as bad as some posters but still, c’mon! Let’s go! Time to start flipping the script.
So you can complain about your US underperformance instead? Long term investors that believe in diversification shouldn't be concerned about the timing of such matters.
False. I want an opportunity to mock those who have been relishing spitting on us Bogleheads who hold international.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
Robot Monster
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Blue456 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:10 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:30 am "The ECB is worried about financial stability in the face of 'remarkable exuberance' in markets. A 10% correction in US stocks could 'lead to a significant tightening of euro-area financial conditions,' & high corporate debt loads could prompt stress." link
Isn't 10% common correction?
The ECB is worried about a correction of 10% (or, presumably, higher). 10% is the bare minimum of what's required for it to be called a correction.

"A technical correction is a decrease in the market price of a stock, or index, that is greater than 10%, but lower than 20%, from the recent highs."
Tamalak
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Tamalak »

10% would take us to the beginning of a year.. any plan that would collapse from such a correction, should collapse :oops:
dml130
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by dml130 »

Someone posted in another thread this link which enables inclusion of negative earnings to CAPE:

https://www.validea.com/market-valuation

If accurate, the results of those CAPE numbers (US as compared to international) suggest that international may not be such a bargain after all, no?
asif408
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by asif408 »

dml130 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 8:26 am Someone posted in another thread this link which enables inclusion of negative earnings to CAPE:

https://www.validea.com/market-valuation

If accurate, the results of those CAPE numbers (US as compared to international) suggest that international may not be such a bargain after all, no?
If it's the only metric you use sure. But do you then ignore all the other metrics (trailing P/E, P/S, P/CF, CAPE w/o negative earnings, etc.) that show international at a discount? Sounds like you might be fishing for some justification for an inherent bias you have.

International stocks have underperformed US equities significantly in the last decade, and there was basically no difference in valuations 10-12 years ago between them. So by almost any reasonable metric they should currently be undervalued compared to US equities. Whether that translates into outperformance remains to be seen.

Interesting to note that since early September international equities have outperformed US equities, and international value equities have almost doubled the return of SPY, so maybe the outperformance has already started and few are aware of it yet.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by salisditz »

asif408 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 10:51 am
dml130 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 8:26 am Someone posted in another thread this link which enables inclusion of negative earnings to CAPE:

https://www.validea.com/market-valuation

If accurate, the results of those CAPE numbers (US as compared to international) suggest that international may not be such a bargain after all, no?
If it's the only metric you use sure. But do you then ignore all the other metrics (trailing P/E, P/S, P/CF, CAPE w/o negative earnings, etc.) that show international at a discount? Sounds like you might be fishing for some justification for an inherent bias you have.

International stocks have underperformed US equities significantly in the last decade, and there was basically no difference in valuations 10-12 years ago between them. So by almost any reasonable metric they should currently be undervalued compared to US equities. Whether that translates into outperformance remains to be seen.

Interesting to note that since early September international equities have outperformed US equities, and international value equities have almost doubled the return of SPY, so maybe the outperformance has already started and few are aware of it yet.
That's an interesting observation as I was just about to post a question regarding this. I used Fidelity and split my intl fund into developed and EM. I noticed that developed one seems to even being outperformed EM, let alone U.S one. My developed fund includes 63% of Europe and 25% Japan. Seems like these areas are struggling with growth. EM on the other hand seems to be at a much better place with China dominating ( while Latin America lag behind).

Given your statement about intl stocks undervalued, wonder your thoughts on reallocating asset to intl developed vs EM?
dml130
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by dml130 »

asif408 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 10:51 am
dml130 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 8:26 am Someone posted in another thread this link which enables inclusion of negative earnings to CAPE:

https://www.validea.com/market-valuation

If accurate, the results of those CAPE numbers (US as compared to international) suggest that international may not be such a bargain after all, no?
If it's the only metric you use sure. But do you then ignore all the other metrics (trailing P/E, P/S, P/CF, CAPE w/o negative earnings, etc.) that show international at a discount? Sounds like you might be fishing for some justification for an inherent bias you have.

International stocks have underperformed US equities significantly in the last decade, and there was basically no difference in valuations 10-12 years ago between them. So by almost any reasonable metric they should currently be undervalued compared to US equities. Whether that translates into outperformance remains to be seen.

Interesting to note that since early September international equities have outperformed US equities, and international value equities have almost doubled the return of SPY, so maybe the outperformance has already started and few are aware of it yet.
Point taken about the other metrics. However, from what I've seen, the CAPE seems to be the most often pointed to information regarding the value of ex-US. Perhaps you are correct that the other metrics are more useful in this case, though.

On the other hand, you couldn't be more wrong about my motivations for posting the information. In fact, I am more than global weight in Ex-US (close to 50 percent). It's just that I like to periodically reevaluate my understanding and beliefs, in particular if I come across new information that gives me reason to do so.
Nathan Drake
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

dml130 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 2:42 pm
asif408 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 10:51 am
dml130 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 8:26 am Someone posted in another thread this link which enables inclusion of negative earnings to CAPE:

https://www.validea.com/market-valuation

If accurate, the results of those CAPE numbers (US as compared to international) suggest that international may not be such a bargain after all, no?
If it's the only metric you use sure. But do you then ignore all the other metrics (trailing P/E, P/S, P/CF, CAPE w/o negative earnings, etc.) that show international at a discount? Sounds like you might be fishing for some justification for an inherent bias you have.

International stocks have underperformed US equities significantly in the last decade, and there was basically no difference in valuations 10-12 years ago between them. So by almost any reasonable metric they should currently be undervalued compared to US equities. Whether that translates into outperformance remains to be seen.

Interesting to note that since early September international equities have outperformed US equities, and international value equities have almost doubled the return of SPY, so maybe the outperformance has already started and few are aware of it yet.
Point taken about the other metrics. However, from what I've seen, the CAPE seems to be the most often pointed to information regarding the value of ex-US. Perhaps you are correct that the other metrics are more useful in this case, though.

On the other hand, you couldn't be more wrong about my motivations for posting the information. In fact, I am more than global weight in Ex-US (close to 50 percent). It's just that I like to periodically reevaluate my understanding and beliefs, in particular if I come across new information that gives me reason to do so.
I wonder if this has more to do with COVID being a boon to tech earnings, while earnings were artificially depressed for traditional industries.

Kind of like how in March 2009 P/E was sky high due to poor earnings, but at the time was an incredible value
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asif408
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by asif408 »

salisditz wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 11:22 am
asif408 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 10:51 am
dml130 wrote: Tue May 25, 2021 8:26 am Someone posted in another thread this link which enables inclusion of negative earnings to CAPE:

https://www.validea.com/market-valuation

If accurate, the results of those CAPE numbers (US as compared to international) suggest that international may not be such a bargain after all, no?
If it's the only metric you use sure. But do you then ignore all the other metrics (trailing P/E, P/S, P/CF, CAPE w/o negative earnings, etc.) that show international at a discount? Sounds like you might be fishing for some justification for an inherent bias you have.

International stocks have underperformed US equities significantly in the last decade, and there was basically no difference in valuations 10-12 years ago between them. So by almost any reasonable metric they should currently be undervalued compared to US equities. Whether that translates into outperformance remains to be seen.

Interesting to note that since early September international equities have outperformed US equities, and international value equities have almost doubled the return of SPY, so maybe the outperformance has already started and few are aware of it yet.
That's an interesting observation as I was just about to post a question regarding this. I used Fidelity and split my intl fund into developed and EM. I noticed that developed one seems to even being outperformed EM, let alone U.S one. My developed fund includes 63% of Europe and 25% Japan. Seems like these areas are struggling with growth. EM on the other hand seems to be at a much better place with China dominating ( while Latin America lag behind).

Given your statement about intl stocks undervalued, wonder your thoughts on reallocating asset to intl developed vs EM?
I'm personally about 50% EM, 40% int'l developed, and 10% US, but I wouldn't suggest you do what I do. My only advice would be to own some of each and make an allocation you can stick with.

I don't know enough to reasonably guess on growth, but I look at valuations and to me it appears Europe and Japan don't need to have high growth to outperform the US, they just need to have less contraction (or a greater rise) valuation wise than the US, and since they are starting at a lower point they have less far to fall and/or more room to rise. This is particularly true on the value side of international equities.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

The Financial Times article, "Investors bet eurozone stock rally will gather steam as economy rebounds". link
“Europe is our favourite region right now,” said Azad Zangana, senior European economist at fund manager Schroders. “The economy is really picking up and valuations are much more attractive than the US at present.”
Graph showing CAPE Europe vs US
link

That said, consider this from 2015:
Stocks: Robert Shiller is buying Europe...He's been warning for months that U.S. stocks look expensive..."I'm thinking of getting out of the United States somewhat. Europe is so much cheaper," Shiller said on an appearance on CNBC Wednesday morning.
link
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Da5id »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 11:42 am The Financial Times article, "Investors bet eurozone stock rally will gather steam as economy rebounds". link
“Europe is our favourite region right now,” said Azad Zangana, senior European economist at fund manager Schroders. “The economy is really picking up and valuations are much more attractive than the US at present.”
Graph showing CAPE Europe vs US
link

That said, consider this from 2015:
Stocks: Robert Shiller is buying Europe...He's been warning for months that U.S. stocks look expensive..."I'm thinking of getting out of the United States somewhat. Europe is so much cheaper," Shiller said on an appearance on CNBC Wednesday morning.
link
In the immortal words of Yogi Berra "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future"

The problem with calls like Shiller made is that they can be made too early. Which is often indistinguishable from being wrong.
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pokebowl
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by pokebowl »

International running circles around Total US today. :greedy :greedy
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

pokebowl wrote: Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:27 am International running circles around Total US today. :greedy :greedy
ExUS has done quite well since Sept relative to US

Certainly no premium for a certain range of start/end dates recently
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DarkNyte
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by DarkNyte »

Both my international VXUS allocation and my VNQ REIT allocation up significantly compared to VTI. Might see reversion to the mean after all. Or might not.
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Re: Foreign Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by midareff »

Ramjet wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 11:11 am
midareff wrote: Fri May 14, 2021 6:27 pm
PackersFan12 wrote: Wed Dec 30, 2020 9:22 pm VXUS went up 0.55% today, while VOO went up only 0.13%.

I think reversion to the mean is afoot! :D
I think that's terrific.... so as of today the last ten years are US 272.49% gain and International 70.01% gain per Morningstar. If the catch up rate is 5% a year, even 10% a year, I can't live long enough for this to get me even. So HOORAY for VXUS today.
It only matter going forward, catching-up is irrelevant
That may be very true for you Ramjet, for me I see it otherwise.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Do you see it? Out there in the distance? It's ex-U.S. stocks, up 50 basis points over U.S. stocks to start the trading day!

Only another 8 bajillion percent and they'll catch up!

Holding steady here on ex-U.S., keeping the plane at 30,000 feet.
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Re: ex-US Stocks Continue to Soar!

Post by lostdog »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 9:02 am Do you see it? Out there in the distance? It's ex-U.S. stocks, up 50 basis points over U.S. stocks to start the trading day!

Only another 8 bajillion percent and they'll catch up!

Holding steady here on ex-U.S., keeping the plane at 30,000 feet.
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