Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

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GaryA505
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by GaryA505 »

PaulArbie wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:21 pm Coming out of Covid, I think we are seeing a fundamental shift in the economy. So I've decided to reallocate from a 60/40 portfolio to GB.

Over the past 2 years my 60/40 has drifted into 60% equity (with a big bias towards growth and tech), 7% munis, 3% Crypto (BTC and ETH) and 30% cash. The reason I'm so heavily weighted in cash is because rising interest rates are inevitable and LT bonds will get crushed by rising interest rates. And ST bonds? They are simply not paying enough to bother. I guess I'm thinking a bit like Jamie Dimon -- sit on cash and wait for the fed to raise rates.

On this excellent thread, there's an under current of shared skepticism regarding the near term prospects for bonds.

In concrete terms, I'm curious to see how people are thinking about the bond side of GB right now. If you have already implemented a GB portfolio, then the golden rule is "do nothing and don't try to time the market". But if you are someone like me who is doing a major shift, what would you do? My inclination is to implement everything else, but swap the 20% LT Bonds/20% ST bonds for 40% cash. Thoughts?

P.S., how do you include cash in a portfolio on Portfoliocharts.com?
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Iconicus
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Iconicus »

PaulArbie wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 12:21 pm Coming out of Covid, I think we are seeing a fundamental shift in the economy. So I've decided to reallocate from a 60/40 portfolio to GB.

Over the past 2 years my 60/40 has drifted into 60% equity (with a big bias towards growth and tech), 7% munis, 3% Crypto (BTC and ETH) and 30% cash. The reason I'm so heavily weighted in cash is because rising interest rates are inevitable and LT bonds will get crushed by rising interest rates. And ST bonds? They are simply not paying enough to bother. I guess I'm thinking a bit like Jamie Dimon -- sit on cash and wait for the fed to raise rates.

On this excellent thread, there's an under current of shared skepticism regarding the near term prospects for bonds.

In concrete terms, I'm curious to see how people are thinking about the bond side of GB right now. If you have already implemented a GB portfolio, then the golden rule is "do nothing and don't try to time the market". But if you are someone like me who is doing a major shift, what would you do? My inclination is to implement everything else, but swap the 20% LT Bonds/20% ST bonds for 40% cash. Thoughts?

P.S., how do you include cash in a portfolio on Portfoliocharts.com?
I think about the bond side by remembering why bonds are in the portfolio in the first place. They are not there for appreciation but rather to reduce risk. I also think about the bond side by keeping threads like this excellent one in mind. It talks about bonds in a rising interest environment: viewtopic.php?f=10&t=350930&start=50
All Seasons
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by All Seasons »

The GB is pretty much the best all-around portfolio (to the extent to which there is such a thing) that has ever been proposed on this forum.
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Ocean77
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Ocean77 »

I think the GB is a great way to construct a portfolio, or at least a great starting point, for those of us who like to tinker with it. Some time ago, I came upon this portfolio, and it had inspired me to create my own version of it. I didn't know the founder is here on our BH site!

Originally, I had looked into the Permanent Portfolio, at the time when I was thinking of a way to reduce the stock portion from the customary 70/30 or 60/40 split, without necessarily increasing the bond portion. The Permanent Portfolio looked like an interesting approach, but with just 25% in stocks it was a bit overly conservative to my taste. While 25% in gold, cash and LTT each was a bit much on the other hand. Sure it has performed pretty well historically, but that was also during the muti-decade bond bull market.

In my view, the GB moved this portfolio into the right direction, by chipping off 5% each from the gold, cash and LTT portions, and adding that to stock part, to bring the stock portion to 40%. For my own use, I took this even a little bit further by bringing the stock portion to 50% (and mixing in international and EM stocks in that portion). The extra 10% in stocks came at the expense of the cash/STT portion, which in my case is 10%. I left 20% in gold. With the bond portion (supposed to be 20% in LTT), I have to admit I am not sure yet, due to the current concerns with bond yield and future negative real returns. That part is not fully invested yet, for this reason. I hope at some point it will be. I also mixed in some TIPS here.

I ran my version through the PortfolioCharts backtesting, and it comes out with quite similar results as the GB. A bit more risky, as expected with the lower cash and higher stock portions. Of course this is just back testing, how it will perform in the future, nobody knows. But still it is good to know it hold up well under a wide variety of conditions.

Bottom line, I think there are a lot worse ways to build a portfolio than the GB. Either the original one, or something a bit customized to your taste.
30% US Stocks | 30% Int Stocks | 40% Bonds
SML0901
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by SML0901 »

I want to institute this strategy and have a portfolio with a bunch of highly appreciated rental properties (Single family homes). In the absence of being able to sell them all and thus creating a massive tax bill, which GB asset class would these be a good proxy for if we don't want to lose the gold allocation?
bikeeagle1
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by bikeeagle1 »

Here's my GB:

15% VTI
15% IJR
10% VXUS
20% VGLT
20% VGSH
20% GLD

I like GLD because it has a very liquid options market and that allows me to sell covered calls when it is up against resistance. I also sometimes sell puts to acquire shares. By trading options on top of owning shares, you can artificially get GLD to produce yield, which is often the knock against gold. I also wanted to slightly "internationalize" the GB, so I peeled 5% each out of the two US stock funds and put that 10% into VXUS. I'm currently weighing the idea of doing something similar with bonds. Finally, as others have mentioned, I have trimmed my VGLT position down to cash, which I simply keep in cash. I have alerts set on VGLT, TNX (interest rates), and /ZB (bond futures) to trigger re-entry points back into VGLT. Oh, and I'm using IJR instead of VBR simply because it has better returns and a lower expense ratio.

But that's just me.
Iconicus
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Iconicus »

ijr is small cap. GB is supposed to have small cap value. Have you tested your portfolio and compared it to GB? I tried testing with international once and it didn't seem better?
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Ocean77
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Ocean77 »

Iconicus wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 5:17 pm ijr is small cap. GB is supposed to have small cap value. Have you tested your portfolio and compared it to GB? I tried testing with international once and it didn't seem better?
Keep in mind that this "testing" is backtesting: It shows how a certain portfolio would have performed in the past. Since international did poorly compared to the US during the most recent decade, a portfolio with an international allocation would have suffered as well. How the various asset classes will perform going forward is anyone's guess.
30% US Stocks | 30% Int Stocks | 40% Bonds
Kevin K
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Kevin K »

Tyler 9000, the inventor of the GB, has already shared some great thoughts and links upthread but I wanted to chime in to say that there's a lot of thought that's gone into the portfolio's construction. I'll post a link below to a very long thread on the GB on a forum specifically focused on the Permanent Portfolio that some may enjoy skimming to get a sense of the evolution of the allocation over time.

The GB originally used small cap blend but Tyler switched to small cap value after some time. The reasons are discussed in the aforementioned thread but you could use either and do just fine.

He had this to say regarding including international equities when the question came up:

"I've looked into it several times, and have yet to find a convincing evidence-based reason to add international stocks to a US-based PP. The biggest proponents of international diversification generally cite the very reasonable assumption that US stocks won't always perform so well and you'll need something else to pick up the slack. I completely agree, but the data indicates that gold already fills that role particularly well which is why adding international never seems to improve the numbers. And in the GB, the small caps also pitch in by greatly diversifying away from the relatively small number of large caps that drive returns of a total market fund due to how the index is weighted. There's more to stock performance than the country it's domiciled in.

I'll note, however, that due to macroeconomic forces the negative correlation of gold to stocks is more pronounced in the US than in other countries. If I was a PP investor outside of the US, international investing would look more appealing. And if gold ownership is ever outlawed again in the future or if an individual investor simply has a mental block on owning gold, international stocks are a logical backup choice to fill that role in a portfolio."

Gold's role is discussed in this excellent post:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/08/21/ ... e-of-gold/

And here's the mega-thread on the GB I mentioned:

https://www.gyroscopicinvesting.com/for ... =10&t=7700
Abide
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Abide »

I use a variation of the GB in my taxable account, but I have small cap blend instead of value and I have short term tips instead of Gold (athough I do hold Gold etf in IRA)

20% ITOT (total stock)
20% IJR (small blend)
20% TLT (LTT)
20% STIP (short term tips)
20% Cash (money market, HYSA or tbills)

My goals in taxable are liquidity and some growth while hopefully avoiding huge losses

STIPs 30 day yield has been pretty high recently but that portion of my allocation seems to be the one I’d be most likely to change at some point…feel like that portion should contain something that does well in inflationary periods

Interesting points from Kevin K about Int’l potentially filling the role of Gold…thanks for the info
seajay
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by seajay »

Kevin K wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 6:53 pmGold's role is discussed in this excellent post:

https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/08/21/ ... e-of-gold/
RE: The comparison around a quarter of the way down that document/article of inflation versus gold :

The GB is like 20/80 volatile stock/bonds, where the Permanent Portfolio is employed as the 'bond' holding. In turn the PP is a 50/50 Short/Long dated treasury barbell, that combines to a central 10 year bullet and a 50/50 stock/gold barbell, that also combines to a central bullet but is more akin to a currency unhedged global bond type bullet. Partnering both of those and the PP is a form of 50/50 domestic/global bonds. Neutral.

Looking at just gold versus inflation is comparable to just looking at long dated treasury versus inflation alone. Better instead to compare STT/LTT barbell versus inflation and/or a stock/gold barbell versus inflation.

Long dated treasury since the 1980's high to low interest rate transition performed well aided by such interest rate transition. Despite that the difference between a GB holding STT/LTT barbell 20% each, or 40% 10 year treasury, or even 20% each in STT/10 year (5 year bullet) was relatively small. Similarly for the Permanent Portfolio. In the present low interest rate era I suspect a PP variant of a 50% 5 year Treasury ladder, 25% in each of stock and gold might serve as equally as well, maybe even better, and be more comfortable. After having established a 5 year ladder there's no need to mark to market, just roll a maturing bond into another 5 year as/when each bond matures, along with 'rebalancing' and/or income/savings adjustments. That could even be reduced further, down to a 3 year ladder, where for a PP you have 17% of the portfolio value in maturing bonds each year and possibly rolling into higher yields/interest rates; Or 13% maturing each year in the case of the GB. PV example
ivgrivchuck
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by ivgrivchuck »

zetsui wrote: Sun Oct 25, 2020 4:41 pm How long have you had it? What is your asset allocation? How is gold held (physcically or in an index)?
It is a very interesting portfolio. Arguably the best all weather style portfolio out there.

It is not the right for me since I'm in the accumulation phase, but around 10 years before retirement I could seriously consider converting into it.

It is not a pure boglehead portfolio, but one needs to keep their mind open to new ideas, and not be overly dogmatic. Holding multiple uncorrelated asset classes has its merits...
25% VTI | 25% VXUS | 12.5% AVUV | 10% AVDV | 2.5% VWO | 25% BND/SCHR/SCHP
Jaymover
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Jaymover »

Looking at the portfolio visualiser it is amazing how well the GB has performed over a long time horizon, even better that 100 percent stocks. It seems like the reward with far less risk. Gold seems a bit kooky to me. You know, stocks are companies etc but gold is just mined metal and they keep pulling it out of the ground and then what....it does seem popular for jewellery in asia and the middle east so maybe a good exposure to EMs....
Last edited by Jaymover on Tue Jun 22, 2021 8:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
jeturn
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by jeturn »

Ocean77 wrote: Wed Jun 16, 2021 10:19 pm I think the GB is a great way to construct a portfolio, or at least a great starting point, for those of us who like to tinker with it. Some time ago, I came upon this portfolio, and it had inspired me to create my own version of it. I didn't know the founder is here on our BH site!

Originally, I had looked into the Permanent Portfolio, at the time when I was thinking of a way to reduce the stock portion from the customary 70/30 or 60/40 split, without necessarily increasing the bond portion. The Permanent Portfolio looked like an interesting approach, but with just 25% in stocks it was a bit overly conservative to my taste. While 25% in gold, cash and LTT each was a bit much on the other hand. Sure it has performed pretty well historically, but that was also during the muti-decade bond bull market.

In my view, the GB moved this portfolio into the right direction, by chipping off 5% each from the gold, cash and LTT portions, and adding that to stock part, to bring the stock portion to 40%. For my own use, I took this even a little bit further by bringing the stock portion to 50% (and mixing in international and EM stocks in that portion). The extra 10% in stocks came at the expense of the cash/STT portion, which in my case is 10%. I left 20% in gold. With the bond portion (supposed to be 20% in LTT), I have to admit I am not sure yet, due to the current concerns with bond yield and future negative real returns. That part is not fully invested yet, for this reason. I hope at some point it will be. I also mixed in some TIPS here.

I ran my version through the PortfolioCharts backtesting, and it comes out with quite similar results as the GB. A bit more risky, as expected with the lower cash and higher stock portions. Of course this is just back testing, how it will perform in the future, nobody knows. But still it is good to know it hold up well under a wide variety of conditions.

Bottom line, I think there are a lot worse ways to build a portfolio than the GB. Either the original one, or something a bit customized to your taste.
I too followed the same path and eventually ended up at the GB. Fortunately, I am able to stand a bit more risk so I also moved to 50% stocks (10% large cap growth and 40% small value) and 30% LTT and 20% gold.

I ran my version through the PortfolioCharts and was very pleased with the results. Having 20% in gold is a new 'perspective' for me. I realize there is a bit more risk than the GB but looking at the backtesting results does give me at least some amount of hope for future results.
Iconicus
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Iconicus »

Many of the retirement tools that are referenced on Bogleheads have you input your portfolio allocation but only allow you to specify stock and bond allocations (for instance, 60/40). With a Golden Butterfly portfolio and its pesky 20% gold portion, what should I say my allocation is? Is it 50/50, counting gold as both kind of stock and kind of bond? Or is it 40/60 where gold is more like a bond? I know that it isn't really either, but if you had to choose how do you treat the gold when entering asset allocation in retirement tools.
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willthrill81
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by willthrill81 »

Iconicus wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:53 pm Many of the retirement tools that are referenced on Bogleheads have you input your portfolio allocation but only allow you to specify stock and bond allocations (for instance, 60/40). With a Golden Butterfly portfolio and its pesky 20% gold portion, what should I say my allocation is? Is it 50/50, counting gold as both kind of stock and kind of bond? Or is it 40/60 where gold is more like a bond? I know that it isn't really either, but if you had to choose how do you treat the gold when entering asset allocation in retirement tools.
There is no good substitute for gold in a backtest. It hasn't behaved like stocks or bonds, so treating as either would just be wrong.

Tyler9000's fantastic site, Portfolio Charts, is free and offers many useful tools for analyzing portfolios and also includes a lot of international data as well. Have you perused the site? What do you want to do that you cannot do there?
The Sensible Steward
secondopinion
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by secondopinion »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:32 pm
Iconicus wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:53 pm Many of the retirement tools that are referenced on Bogleheads have you input your portfolio allocation but only allow you to specify stock and bond allocations (for instance, 60/40). With a Golden Butterfly portfolio and its pesky 20% gold portion, what should I say my allocation is? Is it 50/50, counting gold as both kind of stock and kind of bond? Or is it 40/60 where gold is more like a bond? I know that it isn't really either, but if you had to choose how do you treat the gold when entering asset allocation in retirement tools.
There is no good substitute for gold in a backtest. It hasn't behaved like stocks or bonds, so treating as either would just be wrong.

Tyler9000's fantastic site, Portfolio Charts, is free and offers many useful tools for analyzing portfolios and also includes a lot of international data as well. Have you perused the site? What do you want to do that you cannot do there?
Agreed. Gold, silver, or any other commodity is not going to behave like stocks or bonds long-term because they do not generate earnings for the investor. That is why they are rightly named to be "alternative investments".
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
Iconicus
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by Iconicus »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:32 pm
Iconicus wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:53 pm Many of the retirement tools that are referenced on Bogleheads have you input your portfolio allocation but only allow you to specify stock and bond allocations (for instance, 60/40). With a Golden Butterfly portfolio and its pesky 20% gold portion, what should I say my allocation is? Is it 50/50, counting gold as both kind of stock and kind of bond? Or is it 40/60 where gold is more like a bond? I know that it isn't really either, but if you had to choose how do you treat the gold when entering asset allocation in retirement tools.
There is no good substitute for gold in a backtest. It hasn't behaved like stocks or bonds, so treating as either would just be wrong.

Tyler9000's fantastic site, Portfolio Charts, is free and offers many useful tools for analyzing portfolios and also includes a lot of international data as well. Have you perused the site? What do you want to do that you cannot do there?

What I want to do is enter my stock/bond asset allocation into a tool (RPM, for instance where you can only specify stock % and bond %) when I have 20% in gold? Do I just ignore the gold and put in 50/50 or do I treat the gold like stocks or like bonds and enter 60/40 or 40/60 respectively?
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willthrill81
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by willthrill81 »

Iconicus wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:19 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:32 pm
Iconicus wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:53 pm Many of the retirement tools that are referenced on Bogleheads have you input your portfolio allocation but only allow you to specify stock and bond allocations (for instance, 60/40). With a Golden Butterfly portfolio and its pesky 20% gold portion, what should I say my allocation is? Is it 50/50, counting gold as both kind of stock and kind of bond? Or is it 40/60 where gold is more like a bond? I know that it isn't really either, but if you had to choose how do you treat the gold when entering asset allocation in retirement tools.
There is no good substitute for gold in a backtest. It hasn't behaved like stocks or bonds, so treating as either would just be wrong.

Tyler9000's fantastic site, Portfolio Charts, is free and offers many useful tools for analyzing portfolios and also includes a lot of international data as well. Have you perused the site? What do you want to do that you cannot do there?
What I want to do is enter my stock/bond asset allocation into a tool (RPM, for instance where you can only specify stock % and bond %) when I have 20% in gold? Do I just ignore the gold and put in 50/50 or do I treat the gold like stocks or like bonds and enter 60/40 or 40/60 respectively?
I'm not familiar with RPM. But if you want to accurately model the historic impact of gold, you simply cannot use a tool that doesn't explicitly include data on gold's performance. There is no getting around this. It would be like trying to model stocks' performance when all you have is bond data; it cannot be done.
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crocc
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by crocc »

Anyone have a mutual fund version of the golden butterfly (with Vanguard funds or similar) that they can recommend?

I can get the vanguard mutual fund equivalents to the ETFs, but I have not found a mutual fund for gold that is similar to IAU or GLDM.

I want to automate my investments in Fidelity, and they only support this via mutual funds.
stormcrow
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by stormcrow »

crocc wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 6:04 pm Anyone have a mutual fund version of the golden butterfly (with Vanguard funds or similar) that they can recommend?

I can get the vanguard mutual fund equivalents to the ETFs, but I have not found a mutual fund for gold that is similar to IAU or GLDM.

I want to automate my investments in Fidelity, and they only support this via mutual funds.
There aren't many good gold mutual fund options. SGGDX & SGDLX are both labeled gold funds, but are heavy on miners. Not too mention most mutual funds in the area have outrageous ERs.
elfoolio999
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by elfoolio999 »

Anyone tinker with adding a TIPs fund (SWRSX) as a percent of the 20% long term bonds allocation? So rather than the full 20% in LB something like 10% TIPs and 10% LB. Thank you for any thoughts on this.
seajay
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by seajay »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:23 pm
Iconicus wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 5:19 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 4:32 pm
Iconicus wrote: Tue Oct 12, 2021 3:53 pm Many of the retirement tools that are referenced on Bogleheads have you input your portfolio allocation but only allow you to specify stock and bond allocations (for instance, 60/40). With a Golden Butterfly portfolio and its pesky 20% gold portion, what should I say my allocation is? Is it 50/50, counting gold as both kind of stock and kind of bond? Or is it 40/60 where gold is more like a bond? I know that it isn't really either, but if you had to choose how do you treat the gold when entering asset allocation in retirement tools.
There is no good substitute for gold in a backtest. It hasn't behaved like stocks or bonds, so treating as either would just be wrong.

Tyler9000's fantastic site, Portfolio Charts, is free and offers many useful tools for analyzing portfolios and also includes a lot of international data as well. Have you perused the site? What do you want to do that you cannot do there?
What I want to do is enter my stock/bond asset allocation into a tool (RPM, for instance where you can only specify stock % and bond %) when I have 20% in gold? Do I just ignore the gold and put in 50/50 or do I treat the gold like stocks or like bonds and enter 60/40 or 40/60 respectively?
I'm not familiar with RPM. But if you want to accurately model the historic impact of gold, you simply cannot use a tool that doesn't explicitly include data on gold's performance. There is no getting around this. It would be like trying to model stocks' performance when all you have is bond data; it cannot be done.
The backtest method I use for 'gold' is pre 1933 to use TBills data, as when gold/money could be exchanged at a fixed rate it made more sense for a investor to hold cash deposited to earn interest; And for the US to use silver from 1933 to 1975 when investment gold was outlawed (US geological survey has data for silver from 1900); And then actual gold since 1975 when it again became a permitted investment asset. You can backfill/insert such data into the likes of Simba's spreadsheet and have a additional 'PM' asset and then play with that as desired. Or whatever. For instance I use a low=1 high=50 Dow/Gold ratio stochastic at the start of each year as a indicator of the amount of PM to start the year and since 1897 that yielded a higher reward than stock with lower volatility, better risk adjusted reward. Averaged around 18% gold overall, but more in recent decades. Rolling 10 year real figures were also more consistent/better, was more inclined to avoid the likes of -3% ten year annualised real losses where if a 4% SWR was also being drawn resulted in larger declines/drawdowns than for stock/gold.
seajay
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Re: Anyone here have a golden butterfly portfolio?

Post by seajay »

jeturn wrote: Sun Aug 01, 2021 5:46 pmIn my view, the GB moved this portfolio into the right direction, by chipping off 5% each from the gold, cash and LTT portions, and adding that to stock part, to bring the stock portion to 40%. For my own use, I took this even a little bit further by bringing the stock portion to 50% (and mixing in international and EM stocks in that portion). The extra 10% in stocks came at the expense of the cash/STT portion, which in my case is 10%. I left 20% in gold. With the bond portion (supposed to be 20% in LTT), I have to admit I am not sure yet, due to the current concerns with bond yield and future negative real returns. That part is not fully invested yet, for this reason. I hope at some point it will be. I also mixed in some TIPS here.
But the GB is in part equal weighted diversification. For a non-US for instance they might hold domestic stock, US stock, gold, cash, bonds started each year with equal capital weightings and draw income at the end of year from whichever won that years race. Generally few assets tend to pace inflation consistently rather they zigzag around that, down -20% one year, up +25% then next, simple average of +2.5% bias type motions that equal weighting multiple low/no/inverse correlated assets best captures and is more inclined to smooth down ongoing portfolio wide inflation pacing/beating outcome. 4% SWR from a consistent 0% real last 25 years, sees a 65 year old through to 90. A consistent 1.5% real sees that extended to 30 years. A equal weighted blend of two separate stock indexes, bonds, cash, gold is more inclined to yield such smoothed outcome. Deviation from that and its no longer a GB.
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