Interesting that it only took 9 years to reach the last high, whereas the last high is separated from the previous one by 31 years.Forester wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:48 pm Average price of gold since 1971, inflation-adjusted, is around $1,200. Not very scientific, but assume a global economic rebound next year, gold might drop to $1,400. I just think gold is richly priced any way you look at it. The 2020 high is an almost perfect triple top with 2011 & 1980.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart
Gold continues to soar!
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Might be related to the common perception of bonds being 'done' in 2010/11 & 2020.000 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:52 pmInteresting that it only took 9 years to reach the last high, whereas the last high is separated from the previous one by 31 years.Forester wrote: ↑Tue Nov 24, 2020 4:48 pm Average price of gold since 1971, inflation-adjusted, is around $1,200. Not very scientific, but assume a global economic rebound next year, gold might drop to $1,400. I just think gold is richly priced any way you look at it. The 2020 high is an almost perfect triple top with 2011 & 1980.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/histor ... year-chart
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
"Goldman, Citi see gold above $2,000 in 2021: ‘The bull market is not over’" published today, November 24th. link
"'...inevitable for prices to revert back above $2,000 in 2021, as long as U.S. monetary policy [doesn't] take an unexpectedly hawkish turn."
Less interesting is the prediction, more interesting is the prediction's weakness: a rise in rates.
***
Edit: Bloomberg article published today, Nov 27th. "BlackRock’s Hildebrand Says Global Inflation Isn’t Dead."
"Central banks will face pressure to not tighten too quickly...Covid and its aftermath likely to lead to higher costs, wages...Hildebrand said financial markets are underestimating the risk of higher inflation in the medium term...'It will be a challenge to retreat from the current monetary policy approach even when inflation starts to rise.'
Who knows how much central banks might let inflation overshoot targets (or change targets) without raising rates. This is why I'm in TIPS and gold.
"'...inevitable for prices to revert back above $2,000 in 2021, as long as U.S. monetary policy [doesn't] take an unexpectedly hawkish turn."
Less interesting is the prediction, more interesting is the prediction's weakness: a rise in rates.
***
Edit: Bloomberg article published today, Nov 27th. "BlackRock’s Hildebrand Says Global Inflation Isn’t Dead."
"Central banks will face pressure to not tighten too quickly...Covid and its aftermath likely to lead to higher costs, wages...Hildebrand said financial markets are underestimating the risk of higher inflation in the medium term...'It will be a challenge to retreat from the current monetary policy approach even when inflation starts to rise.'
Who knows how much central banks might let inflation overshoot targets (or change targets) without raising rates. This is why I'm in TIPS and gold.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
A golden start to the new year:
Gold (SGOL) +2.24%
Gold Miners (RING) +7.65%
Gold (SGOL) +2.24%
Gold Miners (RING) +7.65%
Re: Gold continues to soar!
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: Gold continues to soar!
KlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:33 pm https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLV?p=SLV
SLV (Silver) is doing better +3.17%
KlangFool
But strangely, Silver miners (SLVP) are NOT doing better than Gold miners.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
000,000 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:35 pmKlangFool wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 3:33 pm https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLV?p=SLV
SLV (Silver) is doing better +3.17%
KlangFool
But strangely, Silver miners (SLVP) are NOT doing better than Gold miners.
In general, Silver is mostly mined as a side product of other minerals. It is not the same as gold mining. Gold usually mined alone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silver_mining
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Basically, the Silver miner is not as good a bet as the gold miner.
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: Gold continues to soar!
For a short term chaos hedge, you probably want just bullion and not miners (silver OR gold). But for a longer term inflation hedge, I think industrial miners (and other commodity producers BTW) are a good hold.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
I used to follow 321gold.com and try and get tips on mining companies there. It hasn't panned out that well for me. I think physical PMs are really the best way to go. And not in a safety deposit box. I hold them hoping to never sell.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
000,000 wrote: ↑Mon Jan 04, 2021 5:50 pmFor a short term chaos hedge, you probably want just bullion and not miners (silver OR gold). But for a longer term inflation hedge, I think industrial miners (and other commodity producers BTW) are a good hold.
I do not believe in a long-term inflation hedge for the Gold miner. It is a good speculative gamble.
KlangFool
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
Lets get this thread soaring again. The negativity on gold is building- pretty much everyone thinks this is going down now to 1600 or lower. With so much volatility in bonds, equities, and commodities right now, im thinking gold is getting more attractive as diversification. No one knows how this qe infinity worldwide will end so might as well as diversify as much as possible.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
sure, Rubble, whatever you sayPawpatrol wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:04 pm Lets get this thread soaring again. The negativity on gold is building- pretty much everyone thinks this is going down now to 1600 or lower. With so much volatility in bonds, equities, and commodities right now, im thinking gold is getting more attractive as diversification. No one knows how this qe infinity worldwide will end so might as well as diversify as much as possible.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
As a goldbug I'm more than happy for gold to slip below $1,500, gold miners to slide, and for the inflation narrative to be delayed. Gold can't do much for a portfolio above $2k IMHO.Pawpatrol wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 5:04 pm Lets get this thread soaring again. The negativity on gold is building- pretty much everyone thinks this is going down now to 1600 or lower. With so much volatility in bonds, equities, and commodities right now, im thinking gold is getting more attractive as diversification. No one knows how this qe infinity worldwide will end so might as well as diversify as much as possible.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: Gold continues to soar!
If bitcoin didnt exist we would be way past 2k at this point. BTC and altcoins are a big problem for golds future value. I dont own any crypto fwiw.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
I agree with this. Except that I did start a small position in crypto related stocks (now in BLOK) in case they really do replace gold.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
That seems to match the 1980 & 2011 peaks, so my guess is $1,500 is nearer to fair value and north of $2k is rich.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
With long run inflation of the past 40 years, how are you a gold bug then? Or do you mean rich now and will continue to rise against the dollar?
Curious
Thank you
G.E. Box "All models are wrong, but some are useful."
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
I'm adding a tiny amount to my miniscule allocation to Barrick Gold on Monday, raising my allocation from 0.3% to 0.37%, because I live on the edge, bro. Might bump my allocation up to 0.5% if the gold slide continues.
I will note that both gold and TIPS prices have been sliding lately, a correlation that is expected, yes?
I will note that both gold and TIPS prices have been sliding lately, a correlation that is expected, yes?
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Why Barrick and not a miners ETF?Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:57 pm I'm adding a tiny amount to my miniscule allocation to Barrick Gold on Monday, raising my allocation from 0.3% to 0.37%, because I live on the edge, bro. Might bump my allocation up to 0.5% if the gold slide continues.
Probably. There was a discussion by market timer about this earlier in the thread.I will note that both gold and TIPS prices have been sliding lately, a correlation that is expected, yes?
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Gold hit $850 in 1980. Adjusted for inflation = $2,300 today.
2011 high = $2,200 today.
We have no more price data to work with, so around $2k seems to be golds natural upper bound.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: Gold continues to soar!
No what I meant was 1980 and 2011 didn't see the fulfillment of conditions under which it could go higher. The petrodollar system "worked" and the US was able to tame inflation (1980). The fallout from GFC didn't spiral further downward (2011). So though I agree 2k in 2021 USD could be an upper bound during "normal" times I'm not sure it's a "natural" upper bound. I certainly won't be selling at $2k.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Without COMEX the price would be higher, no? Fed owns 25% of TIPS, up from 8% one year ago. Both IMO are probably manipulated. What is the premium dealers are charging for physical?
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Financial Times critique of gold as an investment from April 2004 when gold was $400.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
No defensible reason. Even though I can't defend my reasoning on this, I will tell you my reasoning, in case you're curious. Barrick appears to be the best gold miner, so I choose that one. It's only a tiny allocation, and it's my funny money, so I feel like it's okay. Funny money has different rules. There, I defend myself using the "funny money" exception rule. I hurl that defense at you, then go run and hide in the bushes...000 wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 7:01 pmWhy Barrick and not a miners ETF?Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Feb 27, 2021 6:57 pm I'm adding a tiny amount to my miniscule allocation to Barrick Gold on Monday, raising my allocation from 0.3% to 0.37%, because I live on the edge, bro. Might bump my allocation up to 0.5% if the gold slide continues.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
It is certainly great "that independent inflation-targeting central banks are the norm across the industrialised world".
And that we do not have a compliant, politicized Fed that is dedicated to monetizing the national debt (which in no way could have possibly quadrupled since 2004, right?). Who knows what could have happened to gold in that case... maybe it would quadruple too?
Re: Gold continues to soar!
It's possible the next bond bear market is worse than the last one. Just as 08/09 was worse than Dotcom. I think 25% of a portfolio in gold & gold miners makes it more robust. If gold goes out of fashion it will happen slowly and probably makes little difference to wealth vs an equivalent holding of ST bonds.SeasOfCheese wrote: ↑Sun Feb 28, 2021 8:48 amIt is certainly great "that independent inflation-targeting central banks are the norm across the industrialised world".
And that we do not have a compliant, politicized Fed that is dedicated to monetizing the national debt (which in no way could have possibly quadrupled since 2004, right?). Who knows what could have happened to gold in that case... maybe it would quadruple too?
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: Gold continues to soar!
I like FNV (franco nevada)
Re: Gold continues to soar!
They can't. 48.5% of Gold's World Consumption is Jewellery, 29.19% of Gold's World Consumption is Investment, 14.84% of Gold World Consumption is from Central Banks, and 7.48% of Gold World Consumption's is Industry. Cryptos can only replace the Investment Consumption of Gold but that is only 29.19% of Gold's Consumption. Image below is out-dated from 2012 but conveys roughly the same information in a more beautiful way.
Land/Real Estate:89.4% (Land/RE is Inheritance which will be recieved in 10-20 years) Equities:7.6% Fixed Income:1.7% Gold:0.8% Cryptocurrency:0.5%
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
This post did not age well - Aug 4, literally 2 days from the very top.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Don't you mean two days from the dollar's bottom?jpmorganfunds wrote: ↑Mon Mar 01, 2021 10:04 am This post did not age well - Aug 4, literally 2 days from the very top.
jpmorganfunds wrote: ↑Fri Feb 26, 2021 3:38 pm Gold is money, not the other way around. You should be asking what is the intrinsic value of $ in terms of gold.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
Gold is currently +0.66%. Isn't anyone gonna be like, "yea, soaring!!," or is everyone so downtrodden by gold's fall from recent highs that no one can summon any enthusiasm?
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
Living in Colorado, we bump into old or mothballed mines all the time while out hiking, fishing, biking, overlanding etc.
One thing I've learned is that there is plenty of gold still in there, but the current prices do not support extraction. If the price goes up, or the technology/productivity improves, many of those mines will restart production.
And the price will drop...
One thing I've learned is that there is plenty of gold still in there, but the current prices do not support extraction. If the price goes up, or the technology/productivity improves, many of those mines will restart production.
And the price will drop...
Re: Gold continues to soar!
https://www.usmoneyreserve.com/blog/how ... the-world/Salmo Trutta wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:05 am Living in Colorado, we bump into old or mothballed mines all the time while out hiking, fishing, biking, overlanding etc.
One thing I've learned is that there is plenty of gold still in there, but the current prices do not support extraction. If the price goes up, or the technology/productivity improves, many of those mines will restart production.
And the price will drop...
Most gold is estimated to have been discovered. Of course that is an estimate. Hard to estimate what you haven't discovered. About 80% of gold discovered gold has been mined.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
As long as there is a narrative for gold and silver and it is still being peddled on TV and the radio to old people there will probably be a place for it for a few more decades. Then when this old generation dies out the next one will have crypto peddlers maybe. But the story for gold is still alive and well.JBTX wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:28 amhttps://www.usmoneyreserve.com/blog/how ... the-world/Salmo Trutta wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:05 am Living in Colorado, we bump into old or mothballed mines all the time while out hiking, fishing, biking, overlanding etc.
One thing I've learned is that there is plenty of gold still in there, but the current prices do not support extraction. If the price goes up, or the technology/productivity improves, many of those mines will restart production.
And the price will drop...
Most gold is estimated to have been discovered. Of course that is an estimate. Hard to estimate what you haven't discovered. About 80% of gold discovered gold has been mined.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Sentiment on gold of Asia / 'The East' will be increasingly important, that of Millennial / Zoomer Westerners, less so.asif408 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:36 amAs long as there is a narrative for gold and silver and it is still being peddled on TV and the radio to old people there will probably be a place for it for a few more decades. Then when this old generation dies out the next one will have crypto peddlers maybe. But the story for gold is still alive and well.JBTX wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:28 amhttps://www.usmoneyreserve.com/blog/how ... the-world/Salmo Trutta wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:05 am Living in Colorado, we bump into old or mothballed mines all the time while out hiking, fishing, biking, overlanding etc.
One thing I've learned is that there is plenty of gold still in there, but the current prices do not support extraction. If the price goes up, or the technology/productivity improves, many of those mines will restart production.
And the price will drop...
Most gold is estimated to have been discovered. Of course that is an estimate. Hard to estimate what you haven't discovered. About 80% of gold discovered gold has been mined.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
The west is in decline while China is on the rise. The People's Bank of China as well as its citizens have been continuously accumulating gold. If they ever back the yuan with gold it's game over.Forester wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 8:55 amSentiment on gold of Asia / 'The East' will be increasingly important, that of Millennial / Zoomer Westerners, less so.asif408 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:36 amAs long as there is a narrative for gold and silver and it is still being peddled on TV and the radio to old people there will probably be a place for it for a few more decades. Then when this old generation dies out the next one will have crypto peddlers maybe. But the story for gold is still alive and well.JBTX wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:28 amhttps://www.usmoneyreserve.com/blog/how ... the-world/Salmo Trutta wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:05 am Living in Colorado, we bump into old or mothballed mines all the time while out hiking, fishing, biking, overlanding etc.
One thing I've learned is that there is plenty of gold still in there, but the current prices do not support extraction. If the price goes up, or the technology/productivity improves, many of those mines will restart production.
And the price will drop...
Most gold is estimated to have been discovered. Of course that is an estimate. Hard to estimate what you haven't discovered. About 80% of gold discovered gold has been mined.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Gold has held value for thousands of years. I don't think that vanishes when the old folks pass.asif408 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:36 amAs long as there is a narrative for gold and silver and it is still being peddled on TV and the radio to old people there will probably be a place for it for a few more decades. Then when this old generation dies out the next one will have crypto peddlers maybe. But the story for gold is still alive and well.JBTX wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:28 amhttps://www.usmoneyreserve.com/blog/how ... the-world/Salmo Trutta wrote: ↑Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:05 am Living in Colorado, we bump into old or mothballed mines all the time while out hiking, fishing, biking, overlanding etc.
One thing I've learned is that there is plenty of gold still in there, but the current prices do not support extraction. If the price goes up, or the technology/productivity improves, many of those mines will restart production.
And the price will drop...
Most gold is estimated to have been discovered. Of course that is an estimate. Hard to estimate what you haven't discovered. About 80% of gold discovered gold has been mined.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
Given the high level of pessimism towards gold (at least as I see things), it is probably a safe/good time to be accumulating. The metal and/or the miners. The miners have started paying respectable dividends. Which is hopefully a positive expression of a desire to focus on returning shareholder value, if it lasts.
I do think that bitcoin is the new shiny object that is currently helping to depress gold. If the tech bubble deflates further it will be interesting to see how bitcoin reacts. I tend to think, with no data beyond my observations on who is investing in both, that bitcoin would be forced down in sympathy. Who knows? It will be fun to watch.
I do think that bitcoin is the new shiny object that is currently helping to depress gold. If the tech bubble deflates further it will be interesting to see how bitcoin reacts. I tend to think, with no data beyond my observations on who is investing in both, that bitcoin would be forced down in sympathy. Who knows? It will be fun to watch.
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Hi,
What would be the right gold price if the real interest rate drop to negative 5%?
Thanks.
KlangFool
What would be the right gold price if the real interest rate drop to negative 5%?
Thanks.
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: Gold continues to soar!
-5% is a little extreme although I won’t argue directionally. People predicting negative US yields never bother with gold price under the same circumstance.
IMO the next leg up in nominal yields will be accompanied by widening breakevens and lower real yields as actual CPI inflation is more recognized. We’ll see.
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
Re: Gold continues to soar!
NoRegret,NoRegret wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:00 am-5% is a little extreme although I won’t argue directionally. People predicting negative US yields never bother with gold price under the same circumstance.
IMO the next leg up in nominal yields will be accompanied by widening breakevens and lower real yields as actual CPI inflation is more recognized. We’ll see.
Please answer the question if you know the answer.
<<-5% is a little extreme >>
Historically, it had happened before and at a greater extreme. So, it is not impossible.
<<People predicting negative US yields never bother with gold price under the same circumstance.>>
I do not understand why this statement could be true. At that extreme, the sky is falling. The gold is the only few options left.
KlangFool
P.S.: I found the formula. At -5%, the gold will be about $10,000 per ounce.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=299656&hilit=marke ... 0#p4939835
Last edited by KlangFool on Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Gold continues to soar!
Hmmm.
Gold as substitute for muni bond MM fund?
They both pay 0%...
Gold as substitute for muni bond MM fund?
They both pay 0%...
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Re: Gold continues to soar!
"I do not understand why this statement could be true. At that extreme, the sky is falling. The gold is the only few options left."KlangFool wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:03 amNoRegret,NoRegret wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:00 am-5% is a little extreme although I won’t argue directionally. People predicting negative US yields never bother with gold price under the same circumstance.
IMO the next leg up in nominal yields will be accompanied by widening breakevens and lower real yields as actual CPI inflation is more recognized. We’ll see.
Please answer the question if you know the answer.
<<-5% is a little extreme >>
Historically, it had happened before and at a greater extreme. So, it is not impossible.
<<People predicting negative US yields never bother with gold price under the same circumstance.>>
I do not understand why this statement could be true. At that extreme, the sky is falling. The gold is the only few options left.
KlangFool
I agree - precious metals can be valuable in those circumstances. What % of your portfolio are in these metals now?
Re: Gold continues to soar!
smitcat,smitcat wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:44 am"I do not understand why this statement could be true. At that extreme, the sky is falling. The gold is the only few options left."KlangFool wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:03 amNoRegret,NoRegret wrote: ↑Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:00 am-5% is a little extreme although I won’t argue directionally. People predicting negative US yields never bother with gold price under the same circumstance.
IMO the next leg up in nominal yields will be accompanied by widening breakevens and lower real yields as actual CPI inflation is more recognized. We’ll see.
Please answer the question if you know the answer.
<<-5% is a little extreme >>
Historically, it had happened before and at a greater extreme. So, it is not impossible.
<<People predicting negative US yields never bother with gold price under the same circumstance.>>
I do not understand why this statement could be true. At that extreme, the sky is falling. The gold is the only few options left.
KlangFool
I agree - precious metals can be valuable in those circumstances. What % of your portfolio are in these metals now?
It is not part of my portfolio. It is less than 1%. I use precious metals as a form of insurance.
KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
Re: Gold continues to soar!
Gold is a long duration investment due to it's volatility. I assume muni/MM bond is short-duration investments so they should not be compared.
Land/Real Estate:89.4% (Land/RE is Inheritance which will be recieved in 10-20 years) Equities:7.6% Fixed Income:1.7% Gold:0.8% Cryptocurrency:0.5%