PSA: gold

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Immafreak
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Immafreak »

For those that hold gold in your portfolio (not physical), how do you expect to be paid out if our currency situation gets really bad?

Or let say the dollar does collapse or US no longer is the world's reserve, will the price of GLD (in dollars) sky rocket?
bogledogle
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by bogledogle »

zaboomafoozarg wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:00 pm I usually pay way, way more than spot for gold

but the only kind I care about is in the form of ancient coins :D
Cool! Pics please :D
siriusblack
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by siriusblack »

Lock wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 12:58 pm
market timer wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:21 pm The formula I gave to value gold six months ago is holding up pretty well: P = 1800 * e ^ (-33 * r), where r is the 30-year real rate

Currently, r = -0.38%, so fair value is approximately $2040/oz. Back when gold was $1200 in November 2018, real yields were at 1.3%. The model predicted a fair value of $1172.

You can interpret this formula as saying gold is like an inflation-adjusted bond that pays you $1800 (inflation adjusted) after 33 years. You could tinker with the parameters ($1800, 33 years) to find the best fit, but at least the intuition seems reasonable.
Markettimer - out of curiosity - where did this equation come from?
Market timer, you would have done well as a theoretical physicist.
andypanda
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by andypanda »

If gold is such an obvious good deal, why are so many people selling it? Shouldn't they be keeping for themselves?

Fwiw, I have 17% in international and own a few $50 gold proof coins. I like my collection of junk silver coins from the '60s and 70s better because they're more fun to handle and play with. 8-)
Robot Monster
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Robot Monster »

"Goldman Warns Dollar’s Role as World Reserve Currency Is at Risk...Goldman recommends investors keep buying gold and boosted forecasts."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... nd=premium

How this is actionable: if gold is part of your allocation, this might bring you a little comfort and confidence that maintaining your desired allocation even at a seemingly high price level of $1,900 is a reasonable thing to do.
nigel_ht
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by nigel_ht »

Immafreak wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:55 pm For those that hold gold in your portfolio (not physical), how do you expect to be paid out if our currency situation gets really bad?

Or let say the dollar does collapse or US no longer is the world's reserve, will the price of GLD (in dollars) sky rocket?
When the pound lost its status as the primary reserve currency the financial system did not collapse. If I can't get paid out for GLD then likely the rest of my portfolio, including international and bonds, etc, will be equally inaccessible. How likely is that?

I'm not sure why folks equate the cratering of the US economy and currency with a mad max scenario.
000
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by 000 »

andypanda wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:18 am If gold is such an obvious good deal, why are so many people selling it? Shouldn't they be keeping for themselves?
Why do people rebalance when stocks are doing well?
000
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by 000 »

Immafreak wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 9:55 pm For those that hold gold in your portfolio (not physical), how do you expect to be paid out if our currency situation gets really bad?

Or let say the dollar does collapse or US no longer is the world's reserve, will the price of GLD (in dollars) sky rocket?
If one cannot sell assets in a brokerage account for the currency, then one needs durable goods and directly owned land more than gold to survive.
sk.dolcevita
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by sk.dolcevita »

Uhmmm... how would one go about buying gold bullion (coins or bars of highest purity available along with legally binding certificate of purity) in the US?

I ask as physical gold is probably more appropriate for an Armageddon-like scenario than digital gold held in an ETF, etc. But then that also begs the question where to store gold.
KlangFool
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by KlangFool »

sk.dolcevita wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:07 pm Uhmmm... how would one go about buying gold bullion (coins or bars of highest purity available along with legally binding certificate of purity) in the US?

I ask as physical gold is probably more appropriate for an Armageddon-like scenario than digital gold held in an ETF, etc. But then that also begs the question where to store gold.
sk.dolcevita,

1/10 oz US Gold coins

https://www.jmbullion.com/2020-1-10-oz- ... agle-coin/

It is the size of a penny.

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andypanda
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by andypanda »

000 wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:38 pm
andypanda wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:18 am If gold is such an obvious good deal, why are so many people selling it? Shouldn't they be keeping for themselves?
Why do people rebalance when stocks are doing well?
Because they are tired of making money? Beats me. :confused
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unclescrooge
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by unclescrooge »

bberris wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:54 am
zaboomafoozarg wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:00 pm I usually pay way, way more than spot for gold

but the only kind I care about is in the form of ancient coins :D
Some of the Roman gold is gorgeous. I really like to look at them in museums but I could never bring myself to own any. Picture?
No Romans, but I bought a bunch of 200 year old Napoleon I 20 good francs several years ago. Bought them for $20 over spot.
nigel_ht
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by nigel_ht »

unclescrooge wrote: Thu Aug 06, 2020 10:00 pm
bberris wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 7:54 am
zaboomafoozarg wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:00 pm I usually pay way, way more than spot for gold

but the only kind I care about is in the form of ancient coins :D
Some of the Roman gold is gorgeous. I really like to look at them in museums but I could never bring myself to own any. Picture?
No Romans, but I bought a bunch of 200 year old Napoleon I 20 good francs several years ago. Bought them for $20 over spot.
That pretty cool...both the coins and $20 over spot. :)
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

NoRegret wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:33 pm Speaking as someone with a sizable allocation to PMs I’m seeing a lot of pro-gold posts lately. Note it won’t be out of character for gold to pull back from its old high. FWIW I trimmed my miner positions this week and plan to do so again early next.

Don’t be one of those who buy at $1900 and sell at $1750. Consider DCA over 5-6 weeks If you really want to buy.

NR
8/7/2020
Gold's overnight high was ~2078 and now it's 2025. This may be a (local) top.

I didn't think gold would punch through the 2011 high like that. So I was early, but selling all the way up. I'm now at my core position and even a little short in the trading position.

Best of luck,
NR
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

NoRegret wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:09 pm
NoRegret wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:33 pm Speaking as someone with a sizable allocation to PMs I’m seeing a lot of pro-gold posts lately. Note it won’t be out of character for gold to pull back from its old high. FWIW I trimmed my miner positions this week and plan to do so again early next.

Don’t be one of those who buy at $1900 and sell at $1750. Consider DCA over 5-6 weeks If you really want to buy.

NR
8/7/2020
Gold's overnight high was ~2078 and now it's 2025. This may be a (local) top.

I didn't think gold would punch through the 2011 high like that. So I was early, but selling all the way up. I'm now at my core position and even a little short in the trading position.

Best of luck,
NR
Update 11/24/2020

Gold has been sideways and down since it's $2089 (basis spot) peak in August. The correction has been longer than I expected and has allowed the 200 dma to move up to $1798. Today it temporarily spiked just below. A couple of things have happened:

- 10Y yield up to 90 basis points, now down a little
- No 2nd stimulus
- Uptick in Covid, but also promising vaccine news
- Cryptos are back!
- Stocks have been consolidating and maybe on the verge of another breakout

I list these without ascribing any causal linkage to gold's price action. There maybe further downside potential to the original $1750 target given thin liquidity this week. At any rate, this is the first time since August that I feel ready about building my PM allocation back up again.

Good luck,
NR
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
Robot Monster
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Robot Monster »

NoRegret wrote: Tue Nov 24, 2020 1:02 pm
NoRegret wrote: Fri Aug 07, 2020 12:09 pm
NoRegret wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:33 pm ...Don’t be one of those who buy at $1900 and sell at $1750. Consider DCA over 5-6 weeks If you really want to buy.
Gold's overnight high was ~2078 and now it's 2025. This may be a (local) top...
Update 11/24/2020
...There maybe further downside potential to the original $1750 target given thin liquidity this week. At any rate, this is the first time since August that I feel ready about building my PM allocation back up again.
Your calls so far have been most impressive. Are you going to wait till gold hits $1750 exactly before you start building up your precious metal allocation again? Can you give us more specifics. How much are you going to add at the $1750 level, and what other levels are you going to hold out for? Do you buy GLD, or physical gold? Do you have an opinion about gold miners, or getting precious metal exposure via Vanguard's commodities futures fund? My entire gold position is scant among these two: 0.34% of my total portfolio is Barrick, and 0.1% is the precious metals portion of Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund. Looking to back the truck up on more of this shiny stuff.
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Anon9001
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Anon9001 »

Speaking personally I beginning to trim my earlier Gold positions as the Gold results for my country are not that good portfolio wise:https://freefincal.com/will-including-g ... olio-help/

Am leaving the residual 20-24% position until April 1st as I don't want to pay un-necessary short term capital gains on it.
Land/Real Estate:89.4% (Land/RE is Inheritance which will be recieved in 10-20 years) Equities:7.6% Fixed Income:1.7% Gold:0.8% Cryptocurrency:0.5%
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Nov 27, 2020 10:03 am Your calls so far have been most impressive. Are you going to wait till gold hits $1750 exactly before you start building up your precious metal allocation again? Can you give us more specifics. How much are you going to add at the $1750 level, and what other levels are you going to hold out for? Do you buy GLD, or physical gold? Do you have an opinion about gold miners, or getting precious metal exposure via Vanguard's commodities futures fund? My entire gold position is scant among these two: 0.34% of my total portfolio is Barrick, and 0.1% is the precious metals portion of Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund. Looking to back the truck up on more of this shiny stuff.
Thanks. My price targets are meant to be a range. Gold may find a bottom later next week, but at any rate I'm not looking for a V-recovery. The August top was an easy call given euphoria everywhere including here. There's no corresponding pessimism here, rather a lack of interest as cryptos grab headlines. My PM position consists of both gold and silver -- physical bullion, GLDM, and miner ETFs. For a long time it was in the 12-15% range and I increased it up to 20% until August. It's back down to 14%. I'm actually short on cash in the accounts I want to add PMs, so in the name of capital efficiency, I'll add longer term call options instead.

I trade around my core position for the purpose of volatility management given that my PM allocation is quite high. I'm not good enough to move in and out of core diversifying positions, but happy enough to be able to buy back trading positions at a lower price.

Usually after a long holiday week, the "adults are back in town", and certain over-stretched conditions get reversed. Although for PMs I expect a continuation of selling early in the week at least given COT is still stretched. It's more interesting to see what happens to stocks. We have breadth at extremes which are usually long-term positive, and sentiment also at extremes which are short-term negative. It says to me market participants have digested known information and have came down on the side of risk-on, but we're also highly susceptible to an external shock.
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weltschmerz
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by weltschmerz »

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Re: PSA: gold

Post by market timer »

weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 8:06 pmI played with the numbers a bit, it seems that using P = $1750 and t = -30 gives the best current fit for the year-to-date data. This implies that at 30-year real rate of 0%, the gold price is predicted to be $1750. With real rates above 0%, gold price is lower than $1750, and at negative real rates, the gold price will be higher. This makes sense intuitively, considering that lowering the interest rate decreases the opportunity costs of holding gold (a non-interest-bearing instrument).
Thanks for the analysis. I had just eye-balled the chart without any modeling. I think the estimated parameter values should be similar whether you go back 12 months, 5 years, or even 20 years. For a relatively short time horizon, such as your sample period, I think the approach is fine. For a longer sample period, ranging over more than several years, I'd suggest fitting the inflation-adjusted price of gold.

Based on the 30-year real rate of today (-0.33%), the predicted gold price is $1932, but the current spot price is $1785. If the real rate stays low, then this current gold price could be a good entry point.
Agree with this, though I think bond prices will soon revert down to gold, rather than gold catching up to bond prices.

One thing worth noting is I described this formula at the beginning of your sample period (Jan 6, 2020), so essentially your entire sample period is an out-of-sample test of this formula. Anyone who has read studies on asset prices knows that it is typical for them to break down out-of-sample.
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Re: PSA: gold

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Re: PSA: gold

Post by market timer »

weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:37 pmBased on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this.
I just put on this trade a few minutes ago.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by market timer »

weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:37 pm Here is a 10-year graph using the month-end inflation-adjusted price of gold and the predicted gold price based on the 30-year real rate.
I used the monthly CPI numbers to make the inflation adjustment to the price of gold.
How did you do the inflation adjustment? The peak in August 2011 should be well above $2000 in 2020 dollars. Gold closed August 2011 around $1870. We've had 15% cumulative inflation since then, so that would put the price at $2150 in 2020 dollars.
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Re: PSA: gold

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Re: PSA: gold

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Re: PSA: gold

Post by market timer »

weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:54 pm
market timer wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:40 pm
weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:37 pmBased on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this.
I just put on this trade a few minutes ago.
Nice! I hope that it will work out. Did you execute this using ETFs such as GLD and TBT? And do you have a defined exit point?
I used futures: GCF21 ($1772/oz) and UBF21 (216'09). Yes, have a well-defined exit point.
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

market timer wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:40 pm
weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:37 pmBased on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this.
I just put on this trade a few minutes ago.
Over medium to long term I agree with this, short term anything can happen. Inflation breakeven can decrease with bond yields.
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
Robot Monster
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Robot Monster »

See below article. If copper and other industrial metals are the "rotation trade" against gold (like small-caps and value stocks are to tech stocks) does it make sense to buy both industrial metals and haven metals, so that you're good no matter which way the rotation blows?

Copper Shines, Gold Struggles as Investors Chase Riskier Assets link

"Copper powered to a seven-year high as the rush for growth played out in metals markets, with traditional haven gold dropping amid growing optimism for an end to the coronavirus pandemic...Bullion is suffering as investors reverse this year’s hunt for havens...But other factors that favor gold -- ultra-dovish monetary policy and the risk of steeper inflation -- remain in place."
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by market timer »

NoRegret wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:22 am
market timer wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:40 pm
weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:37 pmBased on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this.
I just put on this trade a few minutes ago.
Over medium to long term I agree with this, short term anything can happen. Inflation breakeven can decrease with bond yields.
So far, so good: UBF21 at 213'20 (+$2,656/contract) and GCF21 at $1816 (+$4040/contract).
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Forester
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Forester »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 8:48 am See below article. If copper and other industrial metals are the "rotation trade" against gold (like small-caps and value stocks are to tech stocks) does it make sense to buy both industrial metals and haven metals, so that you're good no matter which way the rotation blows?

Copper Shines, Gold Struggles as Investors Chase Riskier Assets link

"Copper powered to a seven-year high as the rush for growth played out in metals markets, with traditional haven gold dropping amid growing optimism for an end to the coronavirus pandemic...Bullion is suffering as investors reverse this year’s hunt for havens...But other factors that favor gold -- ultra-dovish monetary policy and the risk of steeper inflation -- remain in place."
Say an investor already had an allocation to Value stocks, as a speculation they could make room for an ETF like $PICK https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/f5 ... 710a3172d8

There's a good case to be made for aluminum & copper, not just for the EV trend but also as the developing world electrifies.
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

market timer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:57 am
NoRegret wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:22 am
market timer wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:40 pm
weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:37 pmBased on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this.
I just put on this trade a few minutes ago.
Over medium to long term I agree with this, short term anything can happen. Inflation breakeven can decrease with bond yields.
So far, so good: UBF21 at 213'20 (+$2,656/contract) and GCF21 at $1816 (+$4040/contract).
Good call. Gold may have made a bottom.
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

2/5/2021
I used the bounce in metals to exit my PM trading positions today, no change to core positions. I admit to having been caught up in the "silver short squeeze" meme and should have taken profits much sooner. When I find myself counting possible $$$'s it's usually a sign that the market will take a dive. The BH silver threads should have been another warning sign. I have lost count of the number of times of "physical silver prices disconnected from futures".

The current PM cycle has been frustrating. My best guess is gold will meander for a while. Right now stocks and cryptos are both "working" so there's no need to press with PMs. In the larger picture, the dollar is starting its bounce and bond yields have been increasing as confidence in the recovery builds. There's no run-away inflation expectation so far. IVOL continues to perform over SCHP, and both better than nominal bonds.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by secondopinion »

siriusblack wrote: Mon Jul 27, 2020 10:06 pm Market timer, you would have done well as a theoretical physicist.
(rant)
Being a partial mathematician, it is a little bit offensive to compare technical trading to theoretical physics, unless one agrees with both. To each is their own attempts to make money; I do not agree with trying to make money by technical trading, but physics is a different matter.
Passive investing: not about making big bucks but making profits. Active investing: not about beating the market but meeting goals. Speculation: not about timing the market but taking profitable risks.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Robot Monster »

NoRegret wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:16 pm 2/5/2021
....In the larger picture, the dollar is starting its bounce and bond yields have been increasing as confidence in the recovery builds. There's no run-away inflation expectation so far.
Are you bullish on the US dollar as a consequence of expecting an increase in bond yields?
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by skipper »

NoRegret wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:16 pm 2/5/2021
I used the bounce in metals to exit my PM trading positions today, no change to core positions. I admit to having been caught up in the "silver short squeeze" meme and should have taken profits much sooner. When I find myself counting possible $$$'s it's usually a sign that the market will take a dive. The BH silver threads should have been another warning sign. I have lost count of the number of times of "physical silver prices disconnected from futures".

The current PM cycle has been frustrating. My best guess is gold will meander for a while. Right now stocks and cryptos are both "working" so there's no need to press with PMs. In the larger picture, the dollar is starting its bounce and bond yields have been increasing as confidence in the recovery builds. There's no run-away inflation expectation so far. IVOL continues to perform over SCHP, and both better than nominal bonds.
IOW, the song remains the same... NoBodyknowsnothin'
by Hyperchicken » Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:28 pm | | ... Dang. That rat and pellet thing is pretty depressing. | Guess I better get back to work.
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 3:33 pm
NoRegret wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:16 pm 2/5/2021
....In the larger picture, the dollar is starting its bounce and bond yields have been increasing as confidence in the recovery builds. There's no run-away inflation expectation so far.
Are you bullish on the US dollar as a consequence of expecting an increase in bond yields?
No, longer term bearish, counter trend bounce notwithstanding.
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

skipper wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:20 pm
NoRegret wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:16 pm 2/5/2021
I used the bounce in metals to exit my PM trading positions today, no change to core positions. I admit to having been caught up in the "silver short squeeze" meme and should have taken profits much sooner. When I find myself counting possible $$$'s it's usually a sign that the market will take a dive. The BH silver threads should have been another warning sign. I have lost count of the number of times of "physical silver prices disconnected from futures".

The current PM cycle has been frustrating. My best guess is gold will meander for a while. Right now stocks and cryptos are both "working" so there's no need to press with PMs. In the larger picture, the dollar is starting its bounce and bond yields have been increasing as confidence in the recovery builds. There's no run-away inflation expectation so far. IVOL continues to perform over SCHP, and both better than nominal bonds.
IOW, the song remains the same... NoBodyknowsnothin'
If by that you mean there are uncertainties associated with range of outcomes, then yes. If you mean a total lack of knowledge, then no.

Whether conscious or not, one’s portfolio positioning implies a view on future market movements. An equity heavy portfolio is a bet on disinflationary growth to continue. An over allocation to US above global market weight is a bet that US will continue to out perform, and so on.

I believe in “strong opinions, lightly held”. I know the reasons behind my positioning, control the risks in case I’m wrong and not afraid to admit it when I am.

How many of the NoBodyknowsnothin crowd are truly agnostic as they would like to claim?
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000
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by 000 »

NoRegret wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:15 am
skipper wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:20 pm IOW, the song remains the same... NoBodyknowsnothin'
If by that you mean there are uncertainties associated with range of outcomes, then yes. If you mean a total lack of knowledge, then no.

Whether conscious or not, one’s portfolio positioning implies a view on future market movements. An equity heavy portfolio is a bet on disinflationary growth to continue. An over allocation to US above global market weight is a bet that US will continue to out perform, and so on.

I believe in “strong opinions, lightly held”. I know the reasons behind my positioning, control the risks in case I’m wrong and not afraid to admit it when I am.

How many of the NoBodyknowsnothin crowd are truly agnostic as they would like to claim?
+1

Great reply to the "nobody knows nothing" meme.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

All Seasons wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:46 pm
NoRegret wrote: Sat Jul 25, 2020 1:33 pm Speaking as someone with a sizable allocation to PMs I’m seeing a lot of pro-gold posts lately. Note it won’t be out of character for gold to pull back from its old high. FWIW I trimmed my miner positions this week and plan to do so again early next.

Don’t be one of those who buy at $1900 and sell at $1750. Consider DCA over 5-6 weeks If you really want to buy.

NR
I wouldn't worry about this crowd becoming pro-gold any time soon. :mrgreen:
I remember my mother in 1994 asking me why I wanted a gold fund. Thankfully I found John Bogle years later and have had some investing success. The gold fund didn't work out very well.
John Bogle: "It's amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he's paid a small fortune not to understand it."
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skipper
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by skipper »

NoRegret wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 2:15 am
skipper wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 5:20 pm
NoRegret wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:16 pm 2/5/2021
I used the bounce in metals to exit my PM trading positions today, no change to core positions. I admit to having been caught up in the "silver short squeeze" meme and should have taken profits much sooner. When I find myself counting possible $$$'s it's usually a sign that the market will take a dive. The BH silver threads should have been another warning sign. I have lost count of the number of times of "physical silver prices disconnected from futures".

The current PM cycle has been frustrating. My best guess is gold will meander for a while. Right now stocks and cryptos are both "working" so there's no need to press with PMs. In the larger picture, the dollar is starting its bounce and bond yields have been increasing as confidence in the recovery builds. There's no run-away inflation expectation so far. IVOL continues to perform over SCHP, and both better than nominal bonds.
IOW, the song remains the same... NoBodyknowsnothin'
If by that you mean there are uncertainties associated with range of outcomes, then yes. If you mean a total lack of knowledge, then no.

Whether conscious or not, one’s portfolio positioning implies a view on future market movements. An equity heavy portfolio is a bet on disinflationary growth to continue. An over allocation to US above global market weight is a bet that US will continue to out perform, and so on.

I believe in “strong opinions, lightly held”. I know the reasons behind my positioning, control the risks in case I’m wrong and not afraid to admit it when I am.

How many of the NoBodyknowsnothin crowd are truly agnostic as they would like to claim?
Sorry; full disclosure, I am anti-gold but I have no personal experience with it, other than what Billy Devane tries to convince me of on TV. After reading through the thread, I got caught up in what I call the "market speak" in your second paragraph, which isn't knowledge, but a range of short-term observations/opinions... in my opinion... :happy All I could hear was Kai Rissdal "Doing the Numbers" blah blah-blah blah-hahaha - no offense.

I appreciate your belief there. In the short time I have been BH'ing, my observation is BH philosophy is the opposite of your belief; 'light opinions, strongly held', which can make one semi-agnostic in one's investment strategy. Example, if you can be convinced that NoBodyknowsnothin by the BH crowd, and you invest based on a formula such as "Age in Bonds and 20% International" or "50/50" or you choose a target date fund and all you do is funnel a fixed amount or percentage into this investment vehicle, then I would say you are as agnostic as you can be. EveryBodybelievessomethin, so no one is truly agnositc. But SomeBodyknowssomethin; unfortunately it's nobody that worries about investing.
by Hyperchicken » Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:28 pm | | ... Dang. That rat and pellet thing is pretty depressing. | Guess I better get back to work.
SimpleNovice
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by SimpleNovice »

I agree with lots of what has been said here, but wondering: with all of this stimulus, and money printing... Add the potential now to forgive student loans, how can GOLD not rise in price? What are the forum's thoughts about that?

Thank you.
DB2
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by DB2 »

SimpleNovice wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:04 am I agree with lots of what has been said here, but wondering: with all of this stimulus, and money printing... Add the potential now to forgive student loans, how can GOLD not rise in price? What are the forum's thoughts about that?

Thank you.
I think gold is facing some headwinds right now: the launch of the vaccines and hopefulness of getting the virus under control which will help spur more economic recovery and growth. This is bullish for stocks and less for "safety" assets. And second, I think gold is starting to get pressure from bitcoin as the new alternative to the issues you mention.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Vanguard Fan 1367 »

SimpleNovice wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:04 am I agree with lots of what has been said here, but wondering: with all of this stimulus, and money printing... Add the potential now to forgive student loans, how can GOLD not rise in price? What are the forum's thoughts about that?

Thank you.
The authors of How To Prepare for the Coming Bad Times and The Coming Economic Earthquake may be correct in their predictions. Their thoughts were that eventually the borrowed money will get out of hand. Gold may rise then.
John Bogle: "It's amazing how difficult it is for a man to understand something if he's paid a small fortune not to understand it."
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

SimpleNovice wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:04 am I agree with lots of what has been said here, but wondering: with all of this stimulus, and money printing... Add the potential now to forgive student loans, how can GOLD not rise in price? What are the forum's thoughts about that?

Thank you.
Short term the simplest explanation is real rates are expected to rise — nominal rates rising thru a combination of recovery, stimulus and treasury issuance, while inflation expectation still moderate. Combine with dollar counter trend move and equity/crypto advance means no fundamental/tactical/momentum/speculative reason at the margin to add to it.

This too shall pass.

Gold producers should report stellar earnings.
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

skipper wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:13 am
Sorry; full disclosure, I am anti-gold but I have no personal experience with it, other than what Billy Devane tries to convince me of on TV. After reading through the thread, I got caught up in what I call the "market speak" in your second paragraph, which isn't knowledge, but a range of short-term observations/opinions... in my opinion... :happy All I could hear was Kai Rissdal "Doing the Numbers" blah blah-blah blah-hahaha - no offense.

I appreciate your belief there. In the short time I have been BH'ing, my observation is BH philosophy is the opposite of your belief; 'light opinions, strongly held', which can make one semi-agnostic in one's investment strategy. Example, if you can be convinced that NoBodyknowsnothin by the BH crowd, and you invest based on a formula such as "Age in Bonds and 20% International" or "50/50" or you choose a target date fund and all you do is funnel a fixed amount or percentage into this investment vehicle, then I would say you are as agnostic as you can be. EveryBodybelievessomethin, so no one is truly agnositc. But SomeBodyknowssomethin; unfortunately it's nobody that worries about investing.
NoBodyKnowsNothin means the future is unknowable. BH philosophy requires an unwavering belief that equity prices will rise over the long term. Many BHs have equities as the singular return driver in their portfolio. To me that is the polar opposite of NoBodyKnowsNothin.

As far as me and this thread, I always lead by stating what I did or about to do with my money, everything else is opinion and interpretation. At the risk of repeating myself, let me say that I’m bullish on gold for (most of) the rest of this decade. I believe that is a significant length of time compared with the overall investing timeframe of an individual. Gold is volatile so I trade around a core position to dampen the drawdowns and with luck generate some additional returns. These views/approaches are decidedly not BH approved.
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by KlangFool »

NoRegret wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:14 pm
skipper wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:13 am
Sorry; full disclosure, I am anti-gold but I have no personal experience with it, other than what Billy Devane tries to convince me of on TV. After reading through the thread, I got caught up in what I call the "market speak" in your second paragraph, which isn't knowledge, but a range of short-term observations/opinions... in my opinion... :happy All I could hear was Kai Rissdal "Doing the Numbers" blah blah-blah blah-hahaha - no offense.

I appreciate your belief there. In the short time I have been BH'ing, my observation is BH philosophy is the opposite of your belief; 'light opinions, strongly held', which can make one semi-agnostic in one's investment strategy. Example, if you can be convinced that NoBodyknowsnothin by the BH crowd, and you invest based on a formula such as "Age in Bonds and 20% International" or "50/50" or you choose a target date fund and all you do is funnel a fixed amount or percentage into this investment vehicle, then I would say you are as agnostic as you can be. EveryBodybelievessomethin, so no one is truly agnositc. But SomeBodyknowssomethin; unfortunately it's nobody that worries about investing.
NoBodyKnowsNothin means the future is unknowable. BH philosophy requires an unwavering belief that equity prices will rise over the long term. Many BHs have equities as the singular return driver in their portfolio. To me that is the polar opposite of NoBodyKnowsNothin.

As far as me and this thread, I always lead by stating what I did or about to do with my money, everything else is opinion and interpretation. At the risk of repeating myself, let me say that I’m bullish on gold for (most of) the rest of this decade. I believe that is a significant length of time compared with the overall investing timeframe of an individual. Gold is volatile so I trade around a core position to dampen the drawdowns and with luck generate some additional returns. These views/approaches are decidedly not BH approved.
NoRegret,

Not to put you on the spot:


A) What is your approximate allocation to precious metal: Gold? Sliver? 5%? 10%?


B) Physical Gold? Gold ETF?


KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:54 pm NoRegret,

Not to put you on the spot:


A) What is your approximate allocation to precious metal: Gold? Sliver? 5%? 10%?


B) Physical Gold? Gold ETF?


KlangFool
KF,
Not at all, I’ve talked about it here before. Current core PM allocation target is 15%, trading is up to another 5%, although I’m frequently under. Last time the total came close to 20% was just before the August peak. Core target was raised by 5% around the start of 2020/end of 2019. Been in PMs since 2002. The bulk of my physical was acquired in 2003-2004. Core is a mix of physical, bullion ETF, and miner ETFs. Silver is a minority of the core position but a large majority of the recent trading position. I’m comfortable with leverage in trading.

I realize that my allocation is high — if you count various forms of leverage it can be higher than the 25% in permanent portfolio. From portfolio theory perspective (rebalancing premium) gold should be no more than 5-10% depending on one’s equity allocation. My overweight is based on macro and I consider PMs a key return driver for the rest of this decade.

Being flat in trading position for now allows some mental clarity.

Cheers, NR
Market timer targeting long term cycles -- aiming for several key decisions per asset class per decade
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by KlangFool »

NoRegret wrote: Sun Feb 07, 2021 11:06 am
KlangFool wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:54 pm NoRegret,

Not to put you on the spot:


A) What is your approximate allocation to precious metal: Gold? Sliver? 5%? 10%?


B) Physical Gold? Gold ETF?


KlangFool
KF,
Not at all, I’ve talked about it here before. Current core PM allocation target is 15%, trading is up to another 5%, although I’m frequently under. Last time the total came close to 20% was just before the August peak. Core target was raised by 5% around the start of 2020/end of 2019. Been in PMs since 2002. The bulk of my physical was acquired in 2003-2004. Core is a mix of physical, bullion ETF, and miner ETFs. Silver is a minority of the core position but a large majority of the recent trading position. I’m comfortable with leverage in trading.

I realize that my allocation is high — if you count various forms of leverage it can be higher than the 25% in permanent portfolio. From portfolio theory perspective (rebalancing premium) gold should be no more than 5-10% depending on one’s equity allocation. My overweight is based on macro and I consider PMs a key return driver for the rest of this decade.

Being flat in trading position for now allows some mental clarity.

Cheers, NR
NoRegret,


Do whatever that lets you "Sleep Well At Night" (SWAN).


KlangFool
30% VWENX | 16% VFWAX/VTIAX | 14.5% VTSAX | 19.5% VBTLX | 10% VSIAX/VTMSX/VSMAX | 10% VSIGX| 30% Wellington 50% 3-funds 20% Mini-Larry
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by DB2 »

I've got around 5% in OUNZ and 5% split between GDX and GDXJ.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

NoRegret wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:14 pm
skipper wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:13 am
Sorry; full disclosure, I am anti-gold but I have no personal experience with it, other than what Billy Devane tries to convince me of on TV. After reading through the thread, I got caught up in what I call the "market speak" in your second paragraph, which isn't knowledge, but a range of short-term observations/opinions... in my opinion... :happy All I could hear was Kai Rissdal "Doing the Numbers" blah blah-blah blah-hahaha - no offense.

I appreciate your belief there. In the short time I have been BH'ing, my observation is BH philosophy is the opposite of your belief; 'light opinions, strongly held', which can make one semi-agnostic in one's investment strategy. Example, if you can be convinced that NoBodyknowsnothin by the BH crowd, and you invest based on a formula such as "Age in Bonds and 20% International" or "50/50" or you choose a target date fund and all you do is funnel a fixed amount or percentage into this investment vehicle, then I would say you are as agnostic as you can be. EveryBodybelievessomethin, so no one is truly agnositc. But SomeBodyknowssomethin; unfortunately it's nobody that worries about investing.
NoBodyKnowsNothin means the future is unknowable. BH philosophy requires an unwavering belief that equity prices will rise over the long term. Many BHs have equities as the singular return driver in their portfolio. To me that is the polar opposite of NoBodyKnowsNothin.

As far as me and this thread, I always lead by stating what I did or about to do with my money, everything else is opinion and interpretation. At the risk of repeating myself, let me say that I’m bullish on gold for (most of) the rest of this decade. I believe that is a significant length of time compared with the overall investing timeframe of an individual. Gold is volatile so I trade around a core position to dampen the drawdowns and with luck generate some additional returns. These views/approaches are decidedly not BH approved.
Most of the arguments against gold around here seem to be based on the theoretical idea that it's expected long-term return is zero. I'm surprised that this still holds much sway with so many given that gold has trounced stocks and bonds for more than 20 years now (in total). But even if that were true, it's undeniable that over the last ~50 years, portfolios with a 5-20% allocation to gold have consistently had smoother returns than others and without sacrificing much, if any, in the way of returns.

Portfolios with only TSM and TBM have historically had very high start date sensitivity because they just aren't diversified in terms of return drivers.
The Sensible Steward
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