PSA: gold

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NoRegret
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:15 pm Most of the arguments against gold around here seem to be based on the theoretical idea that it's expected long-term return is zero. I'm surprised that this still holds much sway with so many given that gold has trounced stocks and bonds for more than 20 years now (in total). But even if that were true, it's undeniable that over the last ~50 years, portfolios with a 5-20% allocation to gold have consistently had smoother returns than others and without sacrificing much, if any, in the way of returns.

Portfolios with only TSM and TBM have historically had very high start date sensitivity because they just aren't diversified in terms of return drivers.
WillThrill81,

I admire your patience in trying to change people's minds. I'm too self-absorbed to do that. I've written about gold's real return under a fiat monetary system and a medium of exchange being an intrinsic good in a complex economy, etc. I can't bear to repeat myself again and again.

In the end, market will award a mental model and execution that better approximate its path. Spending too much time on a message board may wed one too tightly to an idea which is harmful irrespective of how good the idea is.

Cheers, NR
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Robot Monster
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Robot Monster »

NoRegret wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:41 am In the end, market will award a mental model and execution that better approximate its path.
That's what my grandma always used to tell me when we shared a plate of chocolate chip cookies together.
oldfort
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by oldfort »

willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:15 pm
NoRegret wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:14 pm
skipper wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:13 am
Sorry; full disclosure, I am anti-gold but I have no personal experience with it, other than what Billy Devane tries to convince me of on TV. After reading through the thread, I got caught up in what I call the "market speak" in your second paragraph, which isn't knowledge, but a range of short-term observations/opinions... in my opinion... :happy All I could hear was Kai Rissdal "Doing the Numbers" blah blah-blah blah-hahaha - no offense.

I appreciate your belief there. In the short time I have been BH'ing, my observation is BH philosophy is the opposite of your belief; 'light opinions, strongly held', which can make one semi-agnostic in one's investment strategy. Example, if you can be convinced that NoBodyknowsnothin by the BH crowd, and you invest based on a formula such as "Age in Bonds and 20% International" or "50/50" or you choose a target date fund and all you do is funnel a fixed amount or percentage into this investment vehicle, then I would say you are as agnostic as you can be. EveryBodybelievessomethin, so no one is truly agnositc. But SomeBodyknowssomethin; unfortunately it's nobody that worries about investing.
NoBodyKnowsNothin means the future is unknowable. BH philosophy requires an unwavering belief that equity prices will rise over the long term. Many BHs have equities as the singular return driver in their portfolio. To me that is the polar opposite of NoBodyKnowsNothin.

As far as me and this thread, I always lead by stating what I did or about to do with my money, everything else is opinion and interpretation. At the risk of repeating myself, let me say that I’m bullish on gold for (most of) the rest of this decade. I believe that is a significant length of time compared with the overall investing timeframe of an individual. Gold is volatile so I trade around a core position to dampen the drawdowns and with luck generate some additional returns. These views/approaches are decidedly not BH approved.
Most of the arguments against gold around here seem to be based on the theoretical idea that it's expected long-term return is zero. I'm surprised that this still holds much sway with so many given that gold has trounced stocks and bonds for more than 20 years now (in total). But even if that were true, it's undeniable that over the last ~50 years, portfolios with a 5-20% allocation to gold have consistently had smoother returns than others and without sacrificing much, if any, in the way of returns.

Portfolios with only TSM and TBM have historically had very high start date sensitivity because they just aren't diversified in terms of return drivers.
Gold in January 1980 was trading for up to $850/troy ounce. Adjusted for inflation, this was $2845 in today's dollars. In real terms, gold has yet to pass its 1980 peak value 41 years later. Expecting a zero percent real return on gold doesn't seem unreasonable. A small allocation to a volatile, zero-return asset can marginally improve your Sharpe ratio.
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Corsair
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Corsair »

oldfort wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:34 am
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:15 pm
NoRegret wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:14 pm
skipper wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:13 am
Sorry; full disclosure, I am anti-gold but I have no personal experience with it, other than what Billy Devane tries to convince me of on TV. After reading through the thread, I got caught up in what I call the "market speak" in your second paragraph, which isn't knowledge, but a range of short-term observations/opinions... in my opinion... :happy All I could hear was Kai Rissdal "Doing the Numbers" blah blah-blah blah-hahaha - no offense.

I appreciate your belief there. In the short time I have been BH'ing, my observation is BH philosophy is the opposite of your belief; 'light opinions, strongly held', which can make one semi-agnostic in one's investment strategy. Example, if you can be convinced that NoBodyknowsnothin by the BH crowd, and you invest based on a formula such as "Age in Bonds and 20% International" or "50/50" or you choose a target date fund and all you do is funnel a fixed amount or percentage into this investment vehicle, then I would say you are as agnostic as you can be. EveryBodybelievessomethin, so no one is truly agnositc. But SomeBodyknowssomethin; unfortunately it's nobody that worries about investing.
NoBodyKnowsNothin means the future is unknowable. BH philosophy requires an unwavering belief that equity prices will rise over the long term. Many BHs have equities as the singular return driver in their portfolio. To me that is the polar opposite of NoBodyKnowsNothin.

As far as me and this thread, I always lead by stating what I did or about to do with my money, everything else is opinion and interpretation. At the risk of repeating myself, let me say that I’m bullish on gold for (most of) the rest of this decade. I believe that is a significant length of time compared with the overall investing timeframe of an individual. Gold is volatile so I trade around a core position to dampen the drawdowns and with luck generate some additional returns. These views/approaches are decidedly not BH approved.
Most of the arguments against gold around here seem to be based on the theoretical idea that it's expected long-term return is zero. I'm surprised that this still holds much sway with so many given that gold has trounced stocks and bonds for more than 20 years now (in total). But even if that were true, it's undeniable that over the last ~50 years, portfolios with a 5-20% allocation to gold have consistently had smoother returns than others and without sacrificing much, if any, in the way of returns.

Portfolios with only TSM and TBM have historically had very high start date sensitivity because they just aren't diversified in terms of return drivers.
Gold in January 1980 was trading for up to $850/troy ounce. Adjusted for inflation, this was $2845 in today's dollars. In real terms, gold has yet to pass its 1980 peak value 41 years later. Expecting a zero percent real return on gold doesn't seem unreasonable. A small allocation to a volatile, zero-return asset can marginally improve your Sharpe ratio.
That is pretty cool, looks like a 20% allocation helped significantly when added to the Portfolio Matrix compared to a standard 60/40 looking back to 1970 (https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/portfolio-matrix/)

60/40 portfolio:
Average return: 9
Baseline LT return: 18
Baseline ST return: 13
Safe WR: 18
Perpetual WR: 17
Standard Deviation: 14
Ulcer Index: 16
Deepest Drawdown: 14
Longest Drawdown: 16
Start Date Sensitivity: 18

50/30/20 portfolio:
Average return: 8
Baseline LT return: 4
Baseline ST return: 3
Safe WR: 3
Perpetual WR: 3
Standard Deviation: 5
Ulcer Index: 4
Deepest Drawdown: 4
Longest Drawdown: 2
Start Date Sensitivity: 4

The 50/30/20 beats the 60/30/10 across the board.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

oldfort wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:34 am
willthrill81 wrote: Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:15 pm
NoRegret wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:14 pm
skipper wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:13 am
Sorry; full disclosure, I am anti-gold but I have no personal experience with it, other than what Billy Devane tries to convince me of on TV. After reading through the thread, I got caught up in what I call the "market speak" in your second paragraph, which isn't knowledge, but a range of short-term observations/opinions... in my opinion... :happy All I could hear was Kai Rissdal "Doing the Numbers" blah blah-blah blah-hahaha - no offense.

I appreciate your belief there. In the short time I have been BH'ing, my observation is BH philosophy is the opposite of your belief; 'light opinions, strongly held', which can make one semi-agnostic in one's investment strategy. Example, if you can be convinced that NoBodyknowsnothin by the BH crowd, and you invest based on a formula such as "Age in Bonds and 20% International" or "50/50" or you choose a target date fund and all you do is funnel a fixed amount or percentage into this investment vehicle, then I would say you are as agnostic as you can be. EveryBodybelievessomethin, so no one is truly agnositc. But SomeBodyknowssomethin; unfortunately it's nobody that worries about investing.
NoBodyKnowsNothin means the future is unknowable. BH philosophy requires an unwavering belief that equity prices will rise over the long term. Many BHs have equities as the singular return driver in their portfolio. To me that is the polar opposite of NoBodyKnowsNothin.

As far as me and this thread, I always lead by stating what I did or about to do with my money, everything else is opinion and interpretation. At the risk of repeating myself, let me say that I’m bullish on gold for (most of) the rest of this decade. I believe that is a significant length of time compared with the overall investing timeframe of an individual. Gold is volatile so I trade around a core position to dampen the drawdowns and with luck generate some additional returns. These views/approaches are decidedly not BH approved.
Most of the arguments against gold around here seem to be based on the theoretical idea that it's expected long-term return is zero. I'm surprised that this still holds much sway with so many given that gold has trounced stocks and bonds for more than 20 years now (in total). But even if that were true, it's undeniable that over the last ~50 years, portfolios with a 5-20% allocation to gold have consistently had smoother returns than others and without sacrificing much, if any, in the way of returns.

Portfolios with only TSM and TBM have historically had very high start date sensitivity because they just aren't diversified in terms of return drivers.
Gold in January 1980 was trading for up to $850/troy ounce. Adjusted for inflation, this was $2845 in today's dollars. In real terms, gold has yet to pass its 1980 peak value 41 years later. Expecting a zero percent real return on gold doesn't seem unreasonable. A small allocation to a volatile, zero-return asset can marginally improve your Sharpe ratio.
There are two problems with that analysis. First, you're assuming that an investor lump sum invested an amount in 1980 and never invested any additional funds, something that very few accumulators would do. The time weighted nominal return from 1980 through last month was 2.99%, but the money-weighted return for an investor who made equal monthly contributions to gold over the same period was nearly 3% higher. Also, such analyses are highly specific to the time period being analyzed. Using that same method, gold has had a 2.4% real return since 1990 and 6.57% real return since 2000 (beating both TSM and TBM quite handily).

Second, from a modern portfolio theory perspective, the performance of individual portfolio components is less important than what happens to the portfolio as a whole. Portfolios with 5-20% allocations to gold have generally had better downside protection than those without any gold. For instance, if we compare the rolling returns of a 60/40 AA to a 60/30/10 AA (i.e., 10% in gold) since 1972, the worst returns over 5+ year periods were higher with gold than without, and the money-weighted returns, assuming equal contributions, were identical for both AAs.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by oldfort »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:08 pm Second, from a modern portfolio theory perspective, the performance of individual portfolio components is less important than what happens to the portfolio as a whole. Portfolios with 5-20% allocations to gold have generally had better downside protection than those without any gold. For instance, if we compare the rolling returns of a 60/40 AA to a 60/30/10 AA (i.e., 10% in gold) since 1972, the worst returns over 5+ year periods were higher with gold than without, and the money-weighted returns, assuming equal contributions, were identical for both AAs.

Those two portfolios had almost identical results. The CAGR's were both 22.99%. The portfolio with the worse max draw down had a slightly lower standard deviation and a slightly better worst year. Neither portfolio is obviously riskier than the other. So while the 10% gold allocation didn't hurt, it's a real stretch to claim it helped either.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

oldfort wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:22 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:08 pm Second, from a modern portfolio theory perspective, the performance of individual portfolio components is less important than what happens to the portfolio as a whole. Portfolios with 5-20% allocations to gold have generally had better downside protection than those without any gold. For instance, if we compare the rolling returns of a 60/40 AA to a 60/30/10 AA (i.e., 10% in gold) since 1972, the worst returns over 5+ year periods were higher with gold than without, and the money-weighted returns, assuming equal contributions, were identical for both AAs.

Those two portfolios had almost identical results. The CAGR's were both 22.99%. The portfolio with the worse max draw down had a slightly lower standard deviation and a slightly better worst year. Neither portfolio is obviously riskier than the other. So while the 10% gold allocation didn't hurt, it's a real stretch to claim it helped either.
Image
Check out the rolling returns, which is where I said the benefit was.

If gold didn't hurt, it's a 'real stretch' to claim that a small amount of it is bad.

Further, most of this period included the greatest bull market for bonds in U.S. history. Right now, the expected real return of bonds is negative. So even if gold returns 0% real over the next decade, that's a rosier picture than that of bonds.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by finite_difference »

What about palladium and rhodium instead of gold? No future after EVs take over?
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

finite_difference wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 2:19 pm What about palladium and rhodium instead of gold? No future after EVs take over?
TMK, neither of those metals have nearly as much of a history, whether as currency or an investment, as either gold or silver (or copper).
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by raven15 »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:08 pm There are two problems with that analysis. First, you're assuming that an investor lump sum invested an amount in 1980 and never invested any additional funds, something that very few accumulators would do. The time weighted nominal return from 1980 through last month was 2.99%, but the money-weighted return for an investor who made equal monthly contributions to gold over the same period was nearly 3% higher. Also, such analyses are highly specific to the time period being analyzed. Using that same method, gold has had a 2.4% real return since 1990 and 6.57% real return since 2000 (beating both TSM and TBM quite handily).
It's not time specific. In the decades since, gold has never traded outside of the inflation-adjusted price range it set between February 1970 and February 1980. In fact, it has scarcely traded outside of that range for the entirety of recorded history. That is entirely consistent with an asset of zero expected return. Anything within that range is expected noise.

That does make it the perfect candidate for dollar cost averaging for those who wish to invest.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by JEC »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:04 am
NoRegret wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:41 am In the end, market will award a mental model and execution that better approximate its path.
That's what my grandma always used to tell me when we shared a plate of chocolate chip cookies together.
Hahahaha, this made my day!
oldfort
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by oldfort »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:24 pm Check out the rolling returns, which is where I said the benefit was.
Why would I care about 5-year rolling returns? A larger sample size of at least 30 years is better for reaching statistical significance.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

oldfort wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 8:58 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:24 pm Check out the rolling returns, which is where I said the benefit was.
Why would I care about 5-year rolling returns? A larger sample size of at least 30 years is better for reaching statistical significance.
I said 5+, as in all periods longer than 5 years. Gold improved the worst outcomes. Looking at what would have happened with a single lump sum investment over a single time period is not indicative at all of most accumulator's actual results.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

raven15 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 3:55 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:08 pm There are two problems with that analysis. First, you're assuming that an investor lump sum invested an amount in 1980 and never invested any additional funds, something that very few accumulators would do. The time weighted nominal return from 1980 through last month was 2.99%, but the money-weighted return for an investor who made equal monthly contributions to gold over the same period was nearly 3% higher. Also, such analyses are highly specific to the time period being analyzed. Using that same method, gold has had a 2.4% real return since 1990 and 6.57% real return since 2000 (beating both TSM and TBM quite handily).
It's not time specific. In the decades since, gold has never traded outside of the inflation-adjusted price range it set between February 1970 and February 1980. In fact, it has scarcely traded outside of that range for the entirety of recorded history. That is entirely consistent with an asset of zero expected return. Anything within that range is expected noise.
Does that also apply to Japanese stocks? :wink:
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by raven15 »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:19 pm
raven15 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 3:55 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:08 pm There are two problems with that analysis. First, you're assuming that an investor lump sum invested an amount in 1980 and never invested any additional funds, something that very few accumulators would do. The time weighted nominal return from 1980 through last month was 2.99%, but the money-weighted return for an investor who made equal monthly contributions to gold over the same period was nearly 3% higher. Also, such analyses are highly specific to the time period being analyzed. Using that same method, gold has had a 2.4% real return since 1990 and 6.57% real return since 2000 (beating both TSM and TBM quite handily).
It's not time specific. In the decades since, gold has never traded outside of the inflation-adjusted price range it set between February 1970 and February 1980. In fact, it has scarcely traded outside of that range for the entirety of recorded history. That is entirely consistent with an asset of zero expected return. Anything within that range is expected noise.
Does that also apply to Japanese stocks? :wink:
I would say neither the 1970-1980 range nor the historical range statements apply to Japanese stocks, but it does seem we agree gold has expected zero real return ;)
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

raven15 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:26 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 9:19 pm
raven15 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 3:55 pm
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 09, 2021 12:08 pm There are two problems with that analysis. First, you're assuming that an investor lump sum invested an amount in 1980 and never invested any additional funds, something that very few accumulators would do. The time weighted nominal return from 1980 through last month was 2.99%, but the money-weighted return for an investor who made equal monthly contributions to gold over the same period was nearly 3% higher. Also, such analyses are highly specific to the time period being analyzed. Using that same method, gold has had a 2.4% real return since 1990 and 6.57% real return since 2000 (beating both TSM and TBM quite handily).
It's not time specific. In the decades since, gold has never traded outside of the inflation-adjusted price range it set between February 1970 and February 1980. In fact, it has scarcely traded outside of that range for the entirety of recorded history. That is entirely consistent with an asset of zero expected return. Anything within that range is expected noise.
Does that also apply to Japanese stocks? :wink:
I would say neither the 1970-1980 range nor the historical range statements apply to Japanese stocks, but it does seem we agree gold has expected zero real return ;)
Maybe it does, and maybe it doesn't. But what I do know is that a modest gold allocation certainly hasn't hurt accumulators, and it's definitely benefited retirees in the form of higher SWRs.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by market timer »

market timer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:57 am
NoRegret wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:22 am
market timer wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:40 pm
weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:37 pmBased on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this.
I just put on this trade a few minutes ago.
Over medium to long term I agree with this, short term anything can happen. Inflation breakeven can decrease with bond yields.
So far, so good: UBF21 at 213'20 (+$2,656/contract) and GCF21 at $1816 (+$4040/contract).
Gold is now back in line with where my model says it should be priced based on real interest rates.

To close the loop on this trade, long bonds (UBH21) are at 192'20 (+$23,700/contract) and gold futures (GCJ21) are at 1813 (+$3700/contract).
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by qwertyjazz »

NoRegret wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 8:14 pm
skipper wrote: Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:13 am
Sorry; full disclosure, I am anti-gold but I have no personal experience with it, other than what Billy Devane tries to convince me of on TV. After reading through the thread, I got caught up in what I call the "market speak" in your second paragraph, which isn't knowledge, but a range of short-term observations/opinions... in my opinion... :happy All I could hear was Kai Rissdal "Doing the Numbers" blah blah-blah blah-hahaha - no offense.

I appreciate your belief there. In the short time I have been BH'ing, my observation is BH philosophy is the opposite of your belief; 'light opinions, strongly held', which can make one semi-agnostic in one's investment strategy. Example, if you can be convinced that NoBodyknowsnothin by the BH crowd, and you invest based on a formula such as "Age in Bonds and 20% International" or "50/50" or you choose a target date fund and all you do is funnel a fixed amount or percentage into this investment vehicle, then I would say you are as agnostic as you can be. EveryBodybelievessomethin, so no one is truly agnositc. But SomeBodyknowssomethin; unfortunately it's nobody that worries about investing.
NoBodyKnowsNothin means the future is unknowable. BH philosophy requires an unwavering belief that equity prices will rise over the long term. Many BHs have equities as the singular return driver in their portfolio. To me that is the polar opposite of NoBodyKnowsNothin.

As far as me and this thread, I always lead by stating what I did or about to do with my money, everything else is opinion and interpretation. At the risk of repeating myself, let me say that I’m bullish on gold for (most of) the rest of this decade. I believe that is a significant length of time compared with the overall investing timeframe of an individual. Gold is volatile so I trade around a core position to dampen the drawdowns and with luck generate some additional returns. These views/approaches are decidedly not BH approved.
BH does not require nobody knows nothing or even an assumption that equities will rise. All it requires is that I know nothing and investing in equities in a broad based market index buy and hold is the least dangerous approach
Are you implying you can add gold or any other diversifier without any macro economic knowledge? Although I did just beg the question assuming that equities are baseline with gold added vs in the other direction
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm BH does not require ... an assumption that equities will rise.
Are you sure about that? BHs will invest in equities without the assumption that equities will rise over time? Forgive me for doubting that.
qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm Are you implying you can add gold or any other diversifier without any macro economic knowledge?
I can't answer for anyone else, just myself. I believe portfolio theory says there is a place for an uncorrelated asset for rebalancing purposes for maybe 5-10% depending on equity allocation. This is a purely mathematical result from certain volatility and correlation assumptions. I'm further overweight precious metals due to my read of the macro environment and subsequent belief that PMs will perform well for at least the rest of this decade. In doing so I've put money behind a certain future outcome that although nobody can know with certainty I judge more likely.

I'm not here to convince anyone to invest in gold or anything else. Ultimately it's a personal choice and if one doesn't believe in gold and gets shaken out by its volatility it's a much worse outcome than not owning in the first place.

There have been multiple other threads on gold before this one so there was already a level of interest. It is an important asset class and I believe I have some good ideas to offer.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by firebirdparts »

NoRegret wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:50 pm I'm not here to convince anyone to invest in gold or anything else.
That's definitely a safe way to go.

I certainly have a different attitude about gold now that a broad swath of other investments now has a pretty-much-obvious-on-paper zero return, or worse. Once you remove that disadvantage, its hard to argue with it if you decide the randomness is a feature. I do think it's high. I admit I'm willingly ignorant. I would not listen to anybody who wanted to tell me their prediction of what it'll do next.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by qwertyjazz »

NoRegret wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:50 pm
qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm BH does not require ... an assumption that equities will rise.
Are you sure about that? BHs will invest in equities without the assumption that equities will rise over time? Forgive me for doubting that.
qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm Are you implying you can add gold or any other diversifier without any macro economic knowledge?
I can't answer for anyone else, just myself. I believe portfolio theory says there is a place for an uncorrelated asset for rebalancing purposes for maybe 5-10% depending on equity allocation. This is a purely mathematical result from certain volatility and correlation assumptions. I'm further overweight precious metals due to my read of the macro environment and subsequent belief that PMs will perform well for at least the rest of this decade. In doing so I've put money behind a certain future outcome that although nobody can know with certainty I judge more likely.

I'm not here to convince anyone to invest in gold or anything else. Ultimately it's a personal choice and if one doesn't believe in gold and gets shaken out by its volatility it's a much worse outcome than not owning in the first place.

There have been multiple other threads on gold before this one so there was already a level of interest. It is an important asset class and I believe I have some good ideas to offer.
First off - not disagreeing you have some good ideas - I have enjoyed reading them - thank you

For the first point, BH do seem to believe that equities will increase. I am arguing though that assumption is not required to have a BH philosophy. You can reach the same point by assuming that it is less dangerous to do so than other asset classes. You would get the same portfolio - just for different reasons. It is why I have that portfolio.

I can see the math of having uncorrelated assets. I can see how gold has historically helped increase returns while lowering volatility. I have heard the critique that it was due to specific changes in regulations that have taken time to settle through the system.
If I do not have enough confidence in my macro economic capabilities to already decide whether that is true enough to have a 5-10% stake, how can I have enough confidence to know whether you are potentially correct with tactical asset decisions? That is what I am struggling with as I read your intriguing ideas.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Anon9001 »

Slightly off-topic but locally the Gold has been much more of a safe haven than International Stocks for the COVID-19 period. I still don't see why this forum hates on this asset and promotes International Stocks heavily when the results favour Gold heavily when market crashes occur. The returns for Gold, International Stocks, Domestic Stocks for the period were -0.11%, -25.63% and -35.63%. Sure -25% fall is better than -35% fall but it is still much worse than -0.11% return generated by Gold.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

NoRegret wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:50 pm
qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm BH does not require ... an assumption that equities will rise.
Are you sure about that? BHs will invest in equities without the assumption that equities will rise over time? Forgive me for doubting that.
I certainly wouldn't own stocks if I didn't believe that they would rise over time.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by qwertyjazz »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:18 am
NoRegret wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:50 pm
qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm BH does not require ... an assumption that equities will rise.
Are you sure about that? BHs will invest in equities without the assumption that equities will rise over time? Forgive me for doubting that.
I certainly wouldn't own stocks if I didn't believe that they would rise over time.
If stocks would not rise that would imply most other risky assets would not rise and likely that there would not be a safe zero return instrument. So what would you do to be able to spend in the future?
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by willthrill81 »

qwertyjazz wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:23 am
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:18 am
NoRegret wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:50 pm
qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm BH does not require ... an assumption that equities will rise.
Are you sure about that? BHs will invest in equities without the assumption that equities will rise over time? Forgive me for doubting that.
I certainly wouldn't own stocks if I didn't believe that they would rise over time.
If stocks would not rise that would imply most other risky assets would not rise and likely that there would not be a safe zero return instrument.
Real estate could still do fine as its returns are not necessarily predicated on the market value of the property increasing. Volatility ('safe') does not concern me.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by qwertyjazz »

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:38 am
qwertyjazz wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:23 am
willthrill81 wrote: Tue Feb 23, 2021 9:18 am
NoRegret wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 10:50 pm
qwertyjazz wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:55 pm BH does not require ... an assumption that equities will rise.
Are you sure about that? BHs will invest in equities without the assumption that equities will rise over time? Forgive me for doubting that.
I certainly wouldn't own stocks if I didn't believe that they would rise over time.
If stocks would not rise that would imply most other risky assets would not rise and likely that there would not be a safe zero return instrument.
Real estate could still do fine as its returns are not necessarily predicated on the market value of the property increasing. Volatility ('safe') does not concern me.
Interesting - I think I need to rethink my reliance on the recent ease of transactions increasing over the past half century of liquid instruments
Thank you
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

NoRegret wrote: Fri Feb 05, 2021 1:16 pm 2/5/2021
I used the bounce in metals to exit my PM trading positions today, no change to core positions. I admit to having been caught up in the "silver short squeeze" meme and should have taken profits much sooner. When I find myself counting possible $$$'s it's usually a sign that the market will take a dive. The BH silver threads should have been another warning sign. I have lost count of the number of times of "physical silver prices disconnected from futures".

The current PM cycle has been frustrating. My best guess is gold will meander for a while. Right now stocks and cryptos are both "working" so there's no need to press with PMs. In the larger picture, the dollar is starting its bounce and bond yields have been increasing as confidence in the recovery builds. There's no run-away inflation expectation so far. IVOL continues to perform over SCHP, and both better than nominal bonds.
2/26/2021
Gold spot at $1725, got as low as $1716.
Added GDXJ to core position which has been below target AA. No trade position.

Dollar counter trend bounce still in progress and 10 yr real rate still pointing up. Expecting headline CPI to be up big in 1H, no idea whether it'll be transitory.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Corsair »

Crazy to see the large difference between spot, paper, and physical.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by jpmorganfunds »

Corsair wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 1:20 pm Crazy to see the large difference between spot, paper, and physical.
The intersection between the paper market and the physical market are London Good Delivery bars. Not gold eagles and gold pandas. Those are end consumer gold "products" which have no effect on the price of gold. Demand for gold "products" only affects premiums.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

NoRegret wrote: Fri Feb 26, 2021 12:00 pm 2/26/2021
Gold spot at $1725, got as low as $1716.
Added GDXJ to core position which has been below target AA. No trade position.

Dollar counter trend bounce still in progress and 10 yr real rate still pointing up. Expecting headline CPI to be up big in 1H, no idea whether it'll be transitory.
3/6/2021 Gold spot closed the week at 1698.5, silver at 25.29.

Last Friday gold’s emphatic break of the Nov low initiated a multi day selling spree that should have put in a lasting bottom. The commitment of traders continue to improve and next week’s should as well. I approached this week with the giddiness of a young boy at a toy store with pockets full of saved allowance but had to remind myself that PMs tend to bottom in a U not a V. DXY tested 92 but failed to close above.

In stocks Friday saw a high volume reversal following an even higher volume sell-off on Thursday. I continue to favor a bounce led by the generals. I’m getting closer to “rebalance”, but let’s have some fireworks for a proper send-off.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by KlangFool »

market timer wrote: Mon Feb 22, 2021 8:45 pm
market timer wrote: Tue Dec 01, 2020 8:57 am
NoRegret wrote: Mon Nov 30, 2020 12:22 am
market timer wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:40 pm
weltschmerz wrote: Sun Nov 29, 2020 9:37 pmBased on current conditions, perhaps a combination long gold + short bond trade is the way to play this.
I just put on this trade a few minutes ago.
Over medium to long term I agree with this, short term anything can happen. Inflation breakeven can decrease with bond yields.
So far, so good: UBF21 at 213'20 (+$2,656/contract) and GCF21 at $1816 (+$4040/contract).
Gold is now back in line with where my model says it should be priced based on real interest rates.

To close the loop on this trade, long bonds (UBH21) are at 192'20 (+$23,700/contract) and gold futures (GCJ21) are at 1813 (+$3700/contract).
market timer,

If the real interest rate drop to negative 5%, what would the gold price should be as per your model?

Thanks in advance.

KlangFool
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by jpmorganfunds »

There's no bigger gold bug than Peter Schiff and even he says there's no manipulation.

https://schiffgold.com/videos/peter-sch ... -theories/
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by market timer »

KlangFool wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:38 ammarket timer,

If the real interest rate drop to negative 5%, what would the gold price should be as per your model?

Thanks in advance.

KlangFool
The formula is described here:
market timer wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:21 pm The formula I gave to value gold six months ago is holding up pretty well: P = 1800 * e ^ (-33 * r), where r is the 30-year real rate

Currently, r = -0.38%, so fair value is approximately $2040/oz. Back when gold was $1200 in November 2018, real yields were at 1.3%. The model predicted a fair value of $1172.

You can interpret this formula as saying gold is like an inflation-adjusted bond that pays you $1800 (inflation adjusted) after 33 years. You could tinker with the parameters ($1800, 33 years) to find the best fit, but at least the intuition seems reasonable.
Plugging in r = -0.05, I get a value of $9,373/oz.

Here are some other model values:

r = 0.13% (today's rate), modeled gold price = $1,724 (vs. today's actual price of $1,701)
r = 3%, modeled gold price = $669
r = 2%, modeled gold price = $930
r = 1%, modeled gold price = $1,294
r = 0%, modeled gold price = $1,800
r = -1%, modeled gold price = $2,504
r = -2%, modeled gold price = $3,483
r = -3%, modeled gold price = $4,844
r = -4%, modeled gold price = $6,738
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by KlangFool »

market timer wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 8:51 pm
KlangFool wrote: Sat Mar 06, 2021 10:38 ammarket timer,

If the real interest rate drop to negative 5%, what would the gold price should be as per your model?

Thanks in advance.

KlangFool
The formula is described here:
market timer wrote: Sun Jul 26, 2020 11:21 pm The formula I gave to value gold six months ago is holding up pretty well: P = 1800 * e ^ (-33 * r), where r is the 30-year real rate

Currently, r = -0.38%, so fair value is approximately $2040/oz. Back when gold was $1200 in November 2018, real yields were at 1.3%. The model predicted a fair value of $1172.

You can interpret this formula as saying gold is like an inflation-adjusted bond that pays you $1800 (inflation adjusted) after 33 years. You could tinker with the parameters ($1800, 33 years) to find the best fit, but at least the intuition seems reasonable.
Plugging in r = -0.05, I get a value of $9,373/oz.

Here are some other model values:

r = 0.13% (today's rate), modeled gold price = $1,724 (vs. today's actual price of $1,701)
r = 3%, modeled gold price = $669
r = 2%, modeled gold price = $930
r = 1%, modeled gold price = $1,294
r = 0%, modeled gold price = $1,800
r = -1%, modeled gold price = $2,504
r = -2%, modeled gold price = $3,483
r = -3%, modeled gold price = $4,844
r = -4%, modeled gold price = $6,738
Thanks.

KlangFool
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

Bought some PSLV today. Sprott physical silver trust, believed to be more upstanding than SLV. This is the my first purchase of a silver bullion ETF in a while. I have physical silver from a long time back but generally don’t consider myself a stacker.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by gwe67 »

One year later:

VTI +39.81%
VXUS +26.08%
BND -2.96%
gold -5.05%

The answer was right before your eyes all along.
VTI 48%, VXUS 12%, BND 40%
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by seajay »

Image

With non gold currencies you have to invest in order to avoid inflationary erosion, by design, as not only does that generate activity but the 'rewards' can also be taxed.

Trinity study modified to swap out bonds for PM (such as silver since the early 1930's due to it being illegal to hold/trade investment gold in the US), combined with averaging half in at the start of year, half at the end of year ... significantly bolstered SWR, from 4% to 5.7% for 67/33 to 75/25 type stock/PM allocations.

5% SWR, applied to a bad time to have started with some gold, 1980 when the Dow/gold ratio was near 1.0 67/33 stock/gold vs 100/0 ... not as great as all-stock, but not a disaster either.

A better time to have started with some gold included, 2000, again with a 5% SWR and 67/33 vs 100/0 ... again not great, but not too bad either, and far better than 100/0 that got wiped out in 2018.

For foreign investors, a third each domestic stock, US stock, gold ... tended to work well. Japan since 1972 a delightful investment, similar for UK investors. I guess in some respects three currencies, domestic, primary reserve (US$) and global (gold), reasonable currency diversity (many firms hedge their foreign currency exposure to their domiciled currency so even firms with global earnings in foreign currencies may still be exposed to currency concentration risks).

Have a play for yourself, the https://www.usgs.gov/centers/nmic/silve ... nformation includes silver prices back from 1900, drop those yearly price changes into Simba's backtest spreadsheet and you're good to go. What should be considered however is that pre 1933 gold/money were the same, pegged/exchangeable at a fixed rate. It made more sense to hold T-Bills back then as that was like the state paying you for it to securely store your gold.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

gwe67 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:34 am One year later:

VTI +39.81%
VXUS +26.08%
BND -2.96%
gold -5.05%

The answer was right before your eyes all along.
Do you invest based on 1-year trailing returns?

The OP of this thread, made one year ago, was my warning that PMs were peaking. Gold was below $1700 in early March when I was last positive about it in this thread.

Your point?
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Actin »

There's never a good time to buy gold
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by MJS »

This SMBC bit seemed timely: BH & the Leprechaun
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by 000 »

Actin wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:59 am There's never a good time to buy gold
How can people keep saying this about an asset that has trounced stocks and bonds since 2000?
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by tomsense76 »

000 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:45 pm
Actin wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:59 am There's never a good time to buy gold
How can people keep saying this about an asset that has trounced stocks and bonds since 2000?
Unfortunately this seems to be fairly sensitive to start date selection. For example if we start at 1990 instead, gold has done slightly better than bonds (though only fairly recently) and trailed stocks for most of the last decade. In any event more thorough analysis is required before saying gold (or real anything) is a good investment.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by 000 »

tomsense76 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:54 pm Unfortunately this seems to be fairly sensitive to start date selection. For example if we start at 1990 instead, gold has done slightly better than bonds (though only fairly recently) and trailed stocks for most of the last decade. In any event more thorough analysis is required before saying gold (or real anything) is a good investment.
I was merely refuting this particular claim (emphasis mine):
Actin wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:59 am There's never a good time to buy gold
Personally I am a gold bull but I agree with you these things are start date sensitive and the future will differ from the past.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

https://schrts.co/JEQRwEgH

SPXTR (SPX total return index, includes dividends) vs. gold. There are long stretches of time when one outperforms the other. There are longer DOW vs. gold charts out there but I don't think they're dividend adjusted.

My own PM journey started in 2002 and the ratio is not yet back to that level.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

NoRegret wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:58 pm Bought some PSLV today. Sprott physical silver trust, believed to be more upstanding than SLV. This is the my first purchase of a silver bullion ETF in a while. I have physical silver from a long time back but generally don’t consider myself a stacker.
Added more PSLV today. Interesting time for introspection, good practice to look back and try to remember how one feels during large price movements.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by seajay »

000 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:45 pm
Actin wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 9:59 am There's never a good time to buy gold
How can people keep saying this about an asset that has trounced stocks and bonds since 2000?
Same way they can say

Why though? Some don't like bonds but jumping in on every bond thread to express such wouldn't be considered reasonable.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by NoRegret »

NoRegret wrote: Fri Aug 06, 2021 3:06 pm
NoRegret wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 4:58 pm Bought some PSLV today. Sprott physical silver trust, believed to be more upstanding than SLV. This is the my first purchase of a silver bullion ETF in a while. I have physical silver from a long time back but generally don’t consider myself a stacker.
Added more PSLV today. Interesting time for introspection, good practice to look back and try to remember how one feels during large price movements.
BTW, I see more than a 50/50 chance for PMs to go down further next week to undercut recent lows. I’ll buy more in that case. In PMs I’m a mean.reversion trader in multiple time frames.
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Robot Monster »

NoRegret wrote: Sat Aug 07, 2021 9:58 am BTW, I see more than a 50/50 chance for PMs to go down further next week to undercut recent lows. I’ll buy more in that case. In PMs I’m a mean.reversion trader in multiple time frames.
My Vanguard Commodity Strategy Fund (VCMDX) has vaguely 15% in PMs. I'd be happy to buy more of it, if the fund takes a hit.

Can't help but mention that in July of last year Rick Ferri said: (boldface is mine)
A portfolio is like a birthday cake:

Your allocation to stocks, bonds, and cash are the layers of the cake;
Your allocation to International stocks vs. US stocks, and corporate bond vs governments is the icing on the cake;
Small-value and other factor tilts are decorations on top of the icing;
Commodities, bit-coin, and other alternatives are bright glowing candles - soon to be blown out and forgotten.
link

I've been patiently waiting for my commodities candle to blow out, but so far VCMDX, from Jul 2020 - Jul 2021, has had a 51.96% CAGR. link
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by firebirdparts »

Since we don't have a "gold is in free fall" thread, I just came here to say some days you get the bear, and some days the bear gets you.
This time is the same
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Re: PSA: gold

Post by Robot Monster »

firebirdparts wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 6:30 am Since we don't have a "gold is in free fall" thread, I just came here to say some days you get the bear, and some days the bear gets you.
Long-term perspective keeps the bears (psychologically) away. :beer
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