WillThrill81,willthrill81 wrote: ↑Mon Feb 08, 2021 3:15 pm Most of the arguments against gold around here seem to be based on the theoretical idea that it's expected long-term return is zero. I'm surprised that this still holds much sway with so many given that gold has trounced stocks and bonds for more than 20 years now (in total). But even if that were true, it's undeniable that over the last ~50 years, portfolios with a 5-20% allocation to gold have consistently had smoother returns than others and without sacrificing much, if any, in the way of returns.
Portfolios with only TSM and TBM have historically had very high start date sensitivity because they just aren't diversified in terms of return drivers.
I admire your patience in trying to change people's minds. I'm too self-absorbed to do that. I've written about gold's real return under a fiat monetary system and a medium of exchange being an intrinsic good in a complex economy, etc. I can't bear to repeat myself again and again.
In the end, market will award a mental model and execution that better approximate its path. Spending too much time on a message board may wed one too tightly to an idea which is harmful irrespective of how good the idea is.
Cheers, NR