International is in meltdown

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stocknoob4111
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International is in meltdown

Post by stocknoob4111 »

VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by BoggledHead2 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
Cheaper shares mean even greater long term upside

All this hysteria is a great reminder of why I won’t be anywhere near my current asset allocation near retirement
3funder
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by 3funder »

I have a very long time horizon. The international meltdown is exactly what I want. I'm a kid in a candy store these days.
Global stocks, US bonds, and time.
mrwalken
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by mrwalken »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
It occurred to me ironically that discovering bogleheads ended up being rather costly for me because I was unaware of the possibility of investing in international stocks as a naive 22 yr old. Previous to that discovery, I stuck to the s&p. 15 years of pumping money into international funds have not gone well for me. I'm not going to stop now. But can't blame anybody under 40 who is skeptical of international funds.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by jibantik »

mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
It occurred to me ironically that discovering bogleheads ended up being rather costly for me because I was unaware of the possibility of investing in international stocks as a naive 22 yr old. Previous to that discovery, I stuck to the s&p. 15 years of pumping money into international funds have not gone well for me. I'm not going to stop now. But can't blame anybody under 40 who is skeptical of international funds.
I can, easily. You should not use past performance to decide your mutual funds.
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stocknoob4111
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by stocknoob4111 »

mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 am15 years of pumping money into international funds have not gone well for me. I'm not going to stop now. But can't blame anybody under 40 who is skeptical of international funds.
It's an unmitigated disaster... even at the current drop from Jan 2018 just for a break even International has to DOUBLE. And that is if it stops going down from here. If it falls say another 10-15% then there are slim chances that it will recover in this decade. Not sure if that will happen or not but it seems increasingly unlikely.
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simplesimon
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by simplesimon »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:39 am
mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 am15 years of pumping money into international funds have not gone well for me. I'm not going to stop now. But can't blame anybody under 40 who is skeptical of international funds.
It's an unmitigated disaster... even at the current drop from Jan 2018 just for a break even International has to DOUBLE. And that is if it stops going down from here. If it falls say another 10-15% then there are slim chances that it will recover in this decade. Not sure if that will happen or not but it seems increasingly unlikely.
This can be said about particular industries within the S&P500.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by TropikThunder »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:39 am
mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 am15 years of pumping money into international funds have not gone well for me. I'm not going to stop now. But can't blame anybody under 40 who is skeptical of international funds.
It's an unmitigated disaster... even at the current drop from Jan 2018 just for a break even International has to DOUBLE. And that is if it stops going down from here. If it falls say another 10-15% then there are slim chances that it will recover in this decade. Not sure if that will happen or not but it seems increasingly unlikely.
That might still be enough to outperform US though. :?
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by mbasherp »

I am happy that after I'm paid tomorrow, 100% of my investment contributions will go to VXUS. This is just trying to keep my allocation somewhat in line.

International stocks have had a lot going against them for a while now, and it has accelerated. That is not reason for me to abandon a well thought out plan.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by columbia »

Diversification
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by veggivet »

Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by BoggledHead2 »

veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:45 am Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
Quite frankly I think this “coronacrisis” is going to benefit INT long term as they get back to normal before US does
peppers
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by peppers »

That didn't take long.
Covid 19 steals the headlines and.....another US vs ex-US discussion.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by watchnerd »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
Are you suggesting this is actionable intelligence for a 10 year forecast?

Market timing over the short term is hard enough.

I continue to hold world equity allocations at their global market weight via VTWAX. If the market decides international will do less well, the market weight will auto adjust.

I like not having to guess the future.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by H-Town »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
Yup. Buying all VXUS today. At least 75% of my ammo.
Time is the ultimate currency.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by firebirdparts »

veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:45 am Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
As Dirty Harry said, a man's gotta know his limitations. No matter what happens, you'll have a moment where you know, in the future, what you could have invested in now to make the "most money". I already know that now. But you have to invest based on what is available. The fact that international has done poorly is the same fact that it's not overvalued. What can you do? One thing you can do is rebalance, ha ha.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by tibbitts »

veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:45 am Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
You never do. You either believe in global market weight (or some approximation) or not.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by tibbitts »

firebirdparts wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:56 am
veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:45 am Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
As Dirty Harry said, a man's gotta know his limitations. No matter what happens, you'll have a moment where you know, in the future, what you could have invested in now to make the "most money". I already know that now. But you have to invest based on what is available. The fact that international has done poorly is the same fact that it's not overvalued. What can you do? One thing you can do is rebalance, ha ha.
Well, Bogle was not big on rebalancing, so if you want justification for not doing it, there is that.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by mrwalken »

jibantik wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:38 am
mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
It occurred to me ironically that discovering bogleheads ended up being rather costly for me because I was unaware of the possibility of investing in international stocks as a naive 22 yr old. Previous to that discovery, I stuck to the s&p. 15 years of pumping money into international funds have not gone well for me. I'm not going to stop now. But can't blame anybody under 40 who is skeptical of international funds.
I can, easily. You should not use past performance to decide your mutual funds.
That's fair. I'm just saying, for your average joe schmo, who has seen international go up less whenever the s&p goes up and go down more whenever the s&p goes down basically every day for 15 years, it's hard not to be skeptical. I've started to accept that international may under-perform the s&p for the rest of my life, however long that will be.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by gbronc »

This has given us a huge Tax Loss Harvesting opportunity, so everyone should at least jump on that, just like in 2008. These losses will carryover for a long time, so you are at least making lemonade out of lemons. Swapping VTIAX for VFWAX works quite well for this.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by iamlucky13 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:39 am
mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 am15 years of pumping money into international funds have not gone well for me. I'm not going to stop now. But can't blame anybody under 40 who is skeptical of international funds.
It's an unmitigated disaster... even at the current drop from Jan 2018 just for a break even International has to DOUBLE. And that is if it stops going down from here. If it falls say another 10-15% then there are slim chances that it will recover in this decade. Not sure if that will happen or not but it seems increasingly unlikely.
It should not be an unmitigated disaster: The overwhelming majority of Bogleheads, including those who advocate international, consistently advocate mitigating risks to one asset class with others. This generally means mitigating international stocks with domestic stocks and bonds.

Also, if it falls another 10-15%, it will still be better off than the ~62% it fell from its 2007 peak to its trough in 2009. It did take roughly a decade to recover from that. Fortunately, my time frame is longer than a decade.

This is one of the events I will consider as I figure out what my US vs. International allocation should be as I approach my drawdown phase 20+ years from now, but not exclusive of the longer term history, nor of the diversification against risks of a possible major US-specific underperformance.

Also, this reminds me, I need to check how my new employer's 401k handles rebalancing.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by cheezit »

veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:45 am Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
VBMFX has trailed VTSMX for longer periods. Does that make bonds a bad idea?
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Ketawa »

Domestic is down 33% from its peak. International is down 28% from its peak.

ETA: peak in the last year.
Last edited by Ketawa on Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by iamlucky13 »

gbronc wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:08 pm This has given us a huge Tax Loss Harvesting opportunity, so everyone should at least jump on that, just like in 2008. These losses will carryover for a long time, so you are at least making lemonade out of lemons. Swapping VTIAX for VFWAX works quite well for this.
Does that work? They seem substantially identical, subjecting you to the 30 day wash sale rule.

Code: Select all

Region                  VTIAX       VFWAX
------                  -----       -----
Emerging Markets        22.5%       22.6%
Europe                  41.5%       41.9%
Pacific                 28.0%       28.3%
Middle East             0.4%        0.3%
North America           6.8%        6.1%
Other                   0.8%        0.8%
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Forester »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
EM is still even with the S&P since the Feb 19 high. The US dollar has been stronger today.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Well, I suppose I should be thankful I can buy many more shares of a holding I'm not crazy about!

Is there an emoji that depicts someone pinching their nostrils? :D

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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by FIREchief »

Ketawa wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:22 pm Domestic is down 33% from its peak. International is down 28% from its peak.

ETA: peak in the last year.
I'm showing domestic (as measured by US total market VTI) down 26% from its peak at this very moment. Where are you getting 33%?
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by FIREchief »

iamlucky13 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:23 pm
gbronc wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:08 pm This has given us a huge Tax Loss Harvesting opportunity, so everyone should at least jump on that, just like in 2008. These losses will carryover for a long time, so you are at least making lemonade out of lemons. Swapping VTIAX for VFWAX works quite well for this.
Does that work? They seem substantially identical, subjecting you to the 30 day wash sale rule.

Code: Select all

Region                  VTIAX       VFWAX
------                  -----       -----
Emerging Markets        22.5%       22.6%
Europe                  41.5%       41.9%
Pacific                 28.0%       28.3%
Middle East             0.4%        0.3%
North America           6.8%        6.1%
Other                   0.8%        0.8%
VFWAX tracks FTSE All-World ex US Index. FTIAX tracks Spl Total International Stock Index. The consensus opinion is generally that if funds track different indexes, they are not considered "substantially equivalent." Please see my signature.
I am not a lawyer, accountant or financial advisor. Any advice or suggestions that I may provide shall be considered for entertainment purposes only.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by MotoTrojan »

I am buying International small-value all the way down.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by veggivet »

cheezit wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:14 pm
veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:45 am Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
VBMFX has trailed VTSMX for longer periods. Does that make bonds a bad idea?
Apples to oranges comparison. Bonds are added to allocations as ballast, and for income in the 'old days'. Does anyone on this board view international exposure as adding ballast in the face of a drawdown of equities?
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by thx1138 »

Just TLH traded some VTIAX from 9/2015. Ouch!
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by gbronc »

iamlucky13 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:23 pm
gbronc wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:08 pm This has given us a huge Tax Loss Harvesting opportunity, so everyone should at least jump on that, just like in 2008. These losses will carryover for a long time, so you are at least making lemonade out of lemons. Swapping VTIAX for VFWAX works quite well for this.
Does that work? They seem substantially identical, subjecting you to the 30 day wash sale rule.

Code: Select all

Region                  VTIAX       VFWAX
------                  -----       -----
Emerging Markets        22.5%       22.6%
Europe                  41.5%       41.9%
Pacific                 28.0%       28.3%
Middle East             0.4%        0.3%
North America           6.8%        6.1%
Other                   0.8%        0.8%
There are many thread on Bogleheads and various blogs agreeing that it is enough of a difference to make it an acceptable TLH to the IRS. I've done it multiple times over the years, so it better be OK. Shows you how bad international has done that I've done it multiple times with International, but it's been a long time since TLH worked for US equities.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Chief_Engineer »

veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:56 pm Does anyone on this board view international exposure as adding ballast in the face of a drawdown of equities?
International is a ballast for a weak dollar or any risk that is US specific.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by firebirdparts »

tibbitts wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:58 am
Well, Bogle was not big on rebalancing, so if you want justification for not doing it, there is that.
And now he's dead, I don't feel totally well myself.
This time is the same
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by veggivet »

Chief_Engineer wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 3:17 pm
veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 1:56 pm Does anyone on this board view international exposure as adding ballast in the face of a drawdown of equities?
International is a ballast for a weak dollar or any risk that is US specific.
Thank you. That makes sense to me.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by watchnerd »

If you don't have one stinker in your port you're not diversified.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Luckywon »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:23 pm If you don't have one stinker in your port you're not diversified.
But there may be a problem when the stinker is always the same one.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by watchnerd »

Luckywon wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:30 pm
But there may be a problem when the stinker is always the same one.
But it's not.

In the lost decade, the US was the stinker vs international.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Luckywon »

Yes, with respect to US versus International, that is the argument. I have some International myself. I'm just pointing out there is a limitation to the wisdom of the quote. For younger investors, the stinker probably has always been International.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Tamarind »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 amI know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out.
One could say that this is exactly how international potentially limbers up for that predicted outperformance. It seems to me that the easiest time to outperform is right after a crash, simply because a class rebounds faster/higher. Also, US large growth may simply give up more, resulting in intl outperformance. Many ways that could go.

But also, no one promised that the outperforming asset class would perform well. :twisted:
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by watchnerd »

Tamarind wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:35 pm
But also, no one promised that the outperforming asset class would perform well. :twisted:
Also, the forecast is the for whole decade.

Not for 3 months into the decade.
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by tadamsmar »

tibbitts wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:58 am
firebirdparts wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:56 am
veggivet wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:45 am Just curious, when do you re-assess your plan if it's only cost you money for, say 10, 15, or 20 years?
As Dirty Harry said, a man's gotta know his limitations. No matter what happens, you'll have a moment where you know, in the future, what you could have invested in now to make the "most money". I already know that now. But you have to invest based on what is available. The fact that international has done poorly is the same fact that it's not overvalued. What can you do? One thing you can do is rebalance, ha ha.
Well, Bogle was not big on rebalancing, so if you want justification for not doing it, there is that.
Did he explain how to maintain age in bonds without rebalancing?
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Noobvestor »

mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:01 pm
jibantik wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:38 am
mrwalken wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:32 am
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
It occurred to me ironically that discovering bogleheads ended up being rather costly for me because I was unaware of the possibility of investing in international stocks as a naive 22 yr old. Previous to that discovery, I stuck to the s&p. 15 years of pumping money into international funds have not gone well for me. I'm not going to stop now. But can't blame anybody under 40 who is skeptical of international funds.
I can, easily. You should not use past performance to decide your mutual funds.
That's fair. I'm just saying, for your average joe schmo, who has seen international go up less whenever the s&p goes up and go down more whenever the s&p goes down basically every day for 15 years, it's hard not to be skeptical. I've started to accept that international may under-perform the s&p for the rest of my life, however long that will be.
Well, it's always possible that the unprecedented will happen and US will outperform forever. Or maybe history will repeat as it usually does.

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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by runner540 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:25 am VXUS (Vanguard Total International ETF - corresponds to MUTF: VTIAX) is almost down a staggering -12% today, that puts International down 35% from the peak in Jan 2018 :shock: I know the predictions were for International to outperform US in this decade but the drawdowns have been so deep I don't know if this is going to pan out. I know the decade is still just starting and a ton can happen in the next 9 years but it isn't looking good for a recovery if it drops 50% which isn't too far away.
We’re just at the beginning of this story. Are you 100% confident that the US is (1) going to have less health and economic fallout and (2) handle it better than Europe, Japan and South Korea?
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Starchild
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Starchild »

Bogle advised against Int'l assets, as you all know, but someone here pushed for it, for the 3-fund portfolio, and you followed. This is what you're left with: a big, big hole to climb from. And as you all proclaim: no one knows nothing, if you will ever get out.
MotoTrojan
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by MotoTrojan »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:31 pm
Luckywon wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:30 pm
But there may be a problem when the stinker is always the same one.
But it's not.

In the lost decade, the US was the stinker vs international.
I would say they were both stinkers, but my preferred small-value variant of International sure looked hawt.

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion3_3=100
visualguy
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by visualguy »

Starchild wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:52 pm Bogle advised against Int'l assets, as you all know, but someone here pushed for it, for the 3-fund portfolio, and you followed. This is what you're left with: a big, big hole to climb from. And as you all proclaim: no one knows nothing, if you will ever get out.
I was wondering about this - who was originally pushing for ex-US indexing to become part of the Bogleheads strategy? It didn't come from Bogle, obviously, since he had been consistently against it.
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Starchild
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by Starchild »

visualguy wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:23 pm
Starchild wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:52 pm Bogle advised against Int'l assets, as you all know, but someone here pushed for it, for the 3-fund portfolio, and you followed. This is what you're left with: a big, big hole to climb from. And as you all proclaim: no one knows nothing, if you will ever get out.
I was wondering about this - who was originally pushing for ex-US indexing to become part of the Bogleheads strategy? It didn't come from Bogle, obviously, since he had been consistently against it.
The OP of the "three-fund portfolio" thread in the theory index. I also question "all-bond" as the third investment. Times change, and again, "no one knows nothing".
visualguy
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by visualguy »

Starchild wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:34 pm
visualguy wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:23 pm
Starchild wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:52 pm Bogle advised against Int'l assets, as you all know, but someone here pushed for it, for the 3-fund portfolio, and you followed. This is what you're left with: a big, big hole to climb from. And as you all proclaim: no one knows nothing, if you will ever get out.
I was wondering about this - who was originally pushing for ex-US indexing to become part of the Bogleheads strategy? It didn't come from Bogle, obviously, since he had been consistently against it.
The OP of the "three-fund portfolio" thread in the theory index. I also question "all-bond" as the third investment. Times change, and again, "no one knows nothing".
I see - thanks. That's funny because if you look it up, he actually sold his entire ex-US holding later on (he said it was more beneficial to him to sell that from a tax perspective), and then he wasn't holding ex-US any longer.
CFM300
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Re: International is in meltdown

Post by CFM300 »

iamlucky13 wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:23 pm
gbronc wrote: Thu Mar 12, 2020 12:08 pm This has given us a huge Tax Loss Harvesting opportunity, so everyone should at least jump on that, just like in 2008. These losses will carryover for a long time, so you are at least making lemonade out of lemons. Swapping VTIAX for VFWAX works quite well for this.
Does that work? They seem substantially identical, subjecting you to the 30 day wash sale rule.

Code: Select all

Region                  VTIAX       VFWAX
------                  -----       -----
Emerging Markets        22.5%       22.6%
Europe                  41.5%       41.9%
Pacific                 28.0%       28.3%
Middle East             0.4%        0.3%
North America           6.8%        6.1%
Other                   0.8%        0.8%
VTIAX
Holds 7449 stocks with a median market cap of $28.3 billion

VFWAX
Holds 3331 stocks with a median market cap of $33.9 billion

Something to consider, and perhaps document if you do use them as TLH partners.
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