Looking at what happens on a single day is not a good way to determine what the overall trend is.texasfight wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 2:56 pm Today is why not 100% PSLDX
bonds don't hedge equity drawdowns when it is a managed market, just a question of how insane the Fed let's inflation and asset prices get before causing a liquidity crash. Rinse and repeat.
Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
- cflannagan
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Look at how RYSBX did yesterday vs. PSLDX.cflannagan wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 4:20 pmLooking at what happens on a single day is not a good way to determine what the overall trend is.texasfight wrote: ↑Wed Nov 10, 2021 2:56 pm Today is why not 100% PSLDX
bonds don't hedge equity drawdowns when it is a managed market, just a question of how insane the Fed let's inflation and asset prices get before causing a liquidity crash. Rinse and repeat.
I hold PSLDX, VCMDX, and RYSBX in my roth.
Permanent portfolio style strategy:
long $DXY for liquidity crash/tightness protection - what we saw yesterday
Long nominal bonds, long stocks
Long commodities for if Fed let's economy run hot - inflation that hurts stocks AND nominal bonds
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Can PSLDX go negative under any circumstance?
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
ANY circumstance? I guess if bond drops to 0 and they have to pay up for their stock swap due to significant deterioration of stock value, it's possible. Though not sure they have any mechanism to go after the investors. But it's such a remote possibility that it should put in to the same bucket as WWIII which is probably more likely.
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
It is now my core holdings for US in my tax deferred space. I use NTSX for taxable.
- firebirdparts
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
What do folks think about SWAN as an etf comparable to PSLDX?
They define upside capture ratio as 51% so it might be 90% bonds and 51% S&P. Exposures to losses on Spy leaps is not 51% though. There is a favorable skew there.
They define upside capture ratio as 51% so it might be 90% bonds and 51% S&P. Exposures to losses on Spy leaps is not 51% though. There is a favorable skew there.
This time is the same
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
I did a quick search because I recall it being discussed before, and found this thread: viewtopic.php?t=263557firebirdparts wrote: ↑Tue Nov 30, 2021 9:59 am What do folks think about SWAN as an etf comparable to PSLDX?
They define upside capture ratio as 51% so it might be 90% bonds and 51% S&P. Exposures to losses on Spy leaps is not 51% though. There is a favorable skew there.
Looks like it's basically 70/90, compared to PSLDX's 100/100 and NTSX's 90/60. Few thoughts at a very quick glance:
- Gotta be careful looking at treasury allocation in a vacuum (comparing the 90 vs. the 100)- I'm not sure what each of their durations is (probably can look it up fairly easily), but that will have a substantial impact on the risk and return profile of each. Also, I think PSLDX uses some corporate bonds, it's not all treasuries. So that'll probably result in higher absolute returns, but lower risk-adjusted returns (treasuries have lower correlation with equities than corporate bonds).
- Expense ratio is a little lower than PSLDX's, but a lot higher than NTSX's. I think SWAN's performance will probably be closer to NTSX's (if I were to guess, I'd say lower absolute return, but higher risk-adjusted return, but very close). PSLDX should outperform both in absolute return in the long run.
- Yield looks more reasonable for a taxable portfolio than PSLDX's, but not as optimized as NTSX's.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Looks like we've gotten a large capital gains distribution this year, to continue the trend of larger than normal distributions in 2021. 6-7%+, it looks like?
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Another big dividend today? My bet is 6.8%
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
PSLDX would have been in the red anyways because bonds were down significantly. But with the S&P500 up a bit, I can't imaging it would have been down more than 2%. So we might be getting a 7.5%+ cap gains distribution.
Btw jarjar, today is not dividends but capital gains for the year. We get our dividends end of Dec. So two pay days this month.
Btw jarjar, today is not dividends but capital gains for the year. We get our dividends end of Dec. So two pay days this month.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Oh you're right, I already get those 2 mix up, capital gain is the first one and dividend is the 2nd. Either way, a good pay dayrchmx1 wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 6:39 pm PSLDX would have been in the red anyways because bonds were down significantly. But with the S&P500 up a bit, I can't imaging it would have been down more than 2%. So we might be getting a 7.5%+ cap gains distribution.
Btw jarjar, today is not dividends but capital gains for the year. We get our dividends end of Dec. So two pay days this month.
- firebirdparts
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
It's all explained in a new investment book I've been reading, "Taxable Distributions" by Demersom Biggins.
This time is the same
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Demare Hugeinnsfirebirdparts wrote: ↑Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:50 pmIt's all explained in a new investment book I've been reading, "Taxable Distributions" by Demersom Biggins.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
According to Schwab, the total cap gains distribution this year is 0.7845 at a distribution NAV of 8.15. I'll take it.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Just saw the update on schwab as well, crazy year in terms of distribution, all the gains were via distribution, hopefully no one holds this in a taxable account.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
If I'm doing the math right, that's a 8.78% distribution.
On the 7th it closed at 9. Distribution NAV was 8.15. Difference of .85, and subtract from that the .7845 total distribution for .0655. So today's NAV sans distribution would have been 8.9345. .7845/8.9345 is 8.78%. I think that's right?
Anyways, it's a really interesting fund to watch. Glad I'm in it.
On the 7th it closed at 9. Distribution NAV was 8.15. Difference of .85, and subtract from that the .7845 total distribution for .0655. So today's NAV sans distribution would have been 8.9345. .7845/8.9345 is 8.78%. I think that's right?
Anyways, it's a really interesting fund to watch. Glad I'm in it.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
It’s a 9.31% distribution: https://www.pimco.com/handlers/displayd ... 2fXp1ppXLE
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
This PDF says its just an estimate?mroe800 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 12:48 am It’s a 9.31% distribution: https://www.pimco.com/handlers/displayd ... 2fXp1ppXLE
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Wow, you guys are really on top of this. Midnight news reporting!
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
PSLDX dropped 0.85 cents.
We only got back 0.7845.
So what happened to the .0655 ????
Last edited by Booogle on Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:46 am, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Anybody know when PSLDX’s International sister is putting out it’s distribution? Ticker PISIX. Figured they would both be on the same date.
- burritoLover
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Why would you be excited about high capital gain distributions?
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
This seems like a bad idea. Obviously the expense ratio is ridiculous.
And let me ask you this, can you easily explain exactly what the fund invests in to a teenager? If not, then you dont really understand it yourself. And investing in things you dont understand typically means youre getting screwed.
And let me ask you this, can you easily explain exactly what the fund invests in to a teenager? If not, then you dont really understand it yourself. And investing in things you dont understand typically means youre getting screwed.
40% Extended Market | 40% S&P 500 | 10% REIT | 5% State Muni Bond | 5% Cash
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
I am not sure this is helpful 24 pages into a thread where the fund has in fact been explained at length? The fund pairs actively managed longer term bonds with S&P 500 index swaps. The expense ratio is largely in line with other actively managed funds. If it's not your cup of tea,Bogle101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:26 am This seems like a bad idea. Obviously the expense ratio is ridiculous.
And let me ask you this, can you easily explain exactly what the fund invests in to a teenager? If not, then you dont really understand it yourself. And investing in things you dont understand typically means youre getting screwed.
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
reinvest. No tax hit.burritoLover wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:18 am Why would you be excited about high capital gain distributions?
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Cool, I'll invest in PSLDX while your 10% in cash erodes away in value...Bogle101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:26 am This seems like a bad idea. Obviously the expense ratio is ridiculous.
And let me ask you this, can you easily explain exactly what the fund invests in to a teenager? If not, then you dont really understand it yourself. And investing in things you dont understand typically means youre getting screwed.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
I thought keeping a rainy day account was advocated here. I find its easier to tap into cash then selling taxable money since I have had serious cash needs over the last three years like wedding, buying property and biz school. Has the forum moves away from an emergency fund concept?moptop wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:54 amCool, I'll invest in PSLDX while your 10% in cash erodes away in value...Bogle101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:26 am This seems like a bad idea. Obviously the expense ratio is ridiculous.
And let me ask you this, can you easily explain exactly what the fund invests in to a teenager? If not, then you dont really understand it yourself. And investing in things you dont understand typically means youre getting screwed.
40% Extended Market | 40% S&P 500 | 10% REIT | 5% State Muni Bond | 5% Cash
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Probably a topic for another thread, but imo if you have enough money that a crash won't impact your ability to finance emergencies, then you're losing value by keeping your emergency fund in cash. E.g. say you have $1M liquid in your portfolio, and your 6mo emergency fund is $20k. It would be silly to keep that $20k in cash, when even a crazy 80% crash (nuclear war?) would still leave you with 10x what you need. Is it "easier" to tap into those funds? Sure, but there's a convenience premium in that opportunity cost.Bogle101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:09 amI thought keeping a rainy day account was advocated here. I find its easier to tap into cash then selling taxable money since I have had serious cash needs over the last three years like wedding, buying property and biz school. Has the forum moves away from an emergency fund concept?
PSLDX is a leveraged fund, and it's a well-structured one at that. Vanguard, the king of low-cost funds, doesn't offer any leveraged funds. I don't think I'm out-of-line when I say that most Bogleheads are uncomfortable with leverage, and probably for good reason. Because of that level of risk-averseness, this obviously isn't a fund for everyone, but it's certainly a pretty good option for a hands-off investor that has a higher risk appetite that most.
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
I personally hold a few K in checking, few K in crypto interest account paying 9% APY, and the remainder in CEF state and National Muni Bond funds that are giving me a tax adjusted 5.8-6% yield. So instead of having eroding value cash, I’m getting a return that at least comes close to keeping up with inflation.Bogle101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:09 amI thought keeping a rainy day account was advocated here. I find its easier to tap into cash then selling taxable money since I have had serious cash needs over the last three years like wedding, buying property and biz school. Has the forum moves away from an emergency fund concept?moptop wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:54 amCool, I'll invest in PSLDX while your 10% in cash erodes away in value...Bogle101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:26 am This seems like a bad idea. Obviously the expense ratio is ridiculous.
And let me ask you this, can you easily explain exactly what the fund invests in to a teenager? If not, then you dont really understand it yourself. And investing in things you dont understand typically means youre getting screwed.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
That's why we always advise buying this fund in tax-advantaged account. The excitement comes from looking at total return since the price chart of the fund is pretty much flat, not like a SP500 fund. And also, it's fun to be excited once in a whileburritoLover wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:18 am Why would you be excited about high capital gain distributions?
- firebirdparts
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
We're not, I swear. Honest, we're not.burritoLover wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:18 am Why would you be excited about high capital gain distributions?
This fund does a nice job of tracking its fabulous benchmark, it really does. I'm excited about that. The form in which that money appears is a bad thing, but we just have to deal with that. I am dealing with it inside a 401k, so I'm not really grieved.
I'll just preemptively add that my 401k (Fido, brokeragelink) allows me to hold mutual funds only, and this is one. I think if I could buy other instruments, not mutual funds, in my 401k, I might do so.
This time is the same
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
I wouldn't set aside 10% of your money in cash for an emergency account, I would set aside a fixed amount based on what your potential perceived needs are say 3 or 6 months of expenses. Early on, I guess that could be more than 10% of your assets, but later I would think it far less. I still like a little more juice than cash so I have my emergency funds in VASIX (there was a thread on here where someone recommended it)Bogle101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 10:09 amI thought keeping a rainy day account was advocated here. I find its easier to tap into cash then selling taxable money since I have had serious cash needs over the last three years like wedding, buying property and biz school. Has the forum moves away from an emergency fund concept?moptop wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:54 amCool, I'll invest in PSLDX while your 10% in cash erodes away in value...Bogle101 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:26 am This seems like a bad idea. Obviously the expense ratio is ridiculous.
And let me ask you this, can you easily explain exactly what the fund invests in to a teenager? If not, then you dont really understand it yourself. And investing in things you dont understand typically means youre getting screwed.
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Newbie to PSLDX here. I had about 33k in Roth IRA to start with last month. Bought them at $9. Today it dropped to 30k. When do I see the returns for this fund posted? ELI5 please. They are held at Vanguard, if that matters. Thank you.
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
It issued a distribution yesterday so the price dropped. VG takes ~2 days for the distribution to be posted to your VG account. So right now you are probably seeing your balance ~8-10% less than the start of the week. In a day or two those distributed shares will show up.rickyroxy83 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:51 pm Newbie to PSLDX here. I had about 33k in Roth IRA to start with last month. Bought them at $9. Today it dropped to 30k. When do I see the returns for this fund posted? ELI5 please. They are held at Vanguard, if that matters. Thank you.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Yeah, vanguard is slow to credit the distribution. In Schwab, distribution showed up last night at 10pm (the day of distribution).runninginvestor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:55 pmIt issued a distribution yesterday so the price dropped. VG takes ~2 days for the distribution to be posted to your VG account. So right now you are probably seeing your balance ~8-10% less than the start of the week. In a day or two those distributed shares will show up.rickyroxy83 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:51 pm Newbie to PSLDX here. I had about 33k in Roth IRA to start with last month. Bought them at $9. Today it dropped to 30k. When do I see the returns for this fund posted? ELI5 please. They are held at Vanguard, if that matters. Thank you.
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Thank you for the explanation. Here is a screenshot as of today. Why would it show unrealized loss of -3296.97? Because current price is $8.12? Is it better idea to buy when price drops after distribution?runninginvestor wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:55 pmIt issued a distribution yesterday so the price dropped. VG takes ~2 days for the distribution to be posted to your VG account. So right now you are probably seeing your balance ~8-10% less than the start of the week. In a day or two those distributed shares will show up.rickyroxy83 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:51 pm Newbie to PSLDX here. I had about 33k in Roth IRA to start with last month. Bought them at $9. Today it dropped to 30k. When do I see the returns for this fund posted? ELI5 please. They are held at Vanguard, if that matters. Thank you.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Vanguard doe some weird math with PSLDX and it doesn't reflect the "true" return. I keep a separate spreadsheet that gives me the real return of the investment (I suspect that Vanguard doesn't calculate the dividends/capital gains as return and just looks at that as adding new money to the fund (when you reinvest those items).rickyroxy83 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:06 am Thank you for the explanation. Here is a screenshot as of today. Why would it show unrealized loss of -3296.97? Because current price is $8.12? Is it better idea to buy when price drops after distribution?
As far as your question, it doesn't really matter when you buy it because it is always going to go down in value when it pays dividends. I like to rebalance into it at dividend time, but that is only to try and maximize the price appreciation (if I buy it now, and it goes up, then I capture more price appreciation then when buying it later at a higher value).
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
What they said about the unrealized loss.ljford7 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:53 amVanguard doe some weird math with PSLDX and it doesn't reflect the "true" return. I keep a separate spreadsheet that gives me the real return of the investment (I suspect that Vanguard doesn't calculate the dividends/capital gains as return and just looks at that as adding new money to the fund (when you reinvest those items).rickyroxy83 wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:06 am Thank you for the explanation. Here is a screenshot as of today. Why would it show unrealized loss of -3296.97? Because current price is $8.12? Is it better idea to buy when price drops after distribution?
As far as your question, it doesn't really matter when you buy it because it is always going to go down in value when it pays dividends. I like to rebalance into it at dividend time, but that is only to try and maximize the price appreciation (if I buy it now, and it goes up, then I capture more price appreciation then when buying it later at a higher value).
Additionally, if you aren't holding in a taxable account (hopefully you aren't!) then it doesn't really matter buying before it after the distribution. For example:
PSLDX is trading at $9. You own $900 worth.
You buy before the dividend is distributed. Say you buy 100 shares at $9, so $900 worth. The they then pay a $1 distribution. Everyone knows this so the price begins trading $1 less so that it's not free money for new buyers. The distribution is issued to you. You own the original 100 shares now at $8=$800 (you originally paid $900 so you would show an unrealized $100 loss).
If you reinvest the distribution, you have a $100 distribution reinvested at $8, so 12.5 shares for a total of 112.5 shares after the distribution.
And also now 100 * $1 distribution (now you've realized a $100 gain). Together you still have $900 worth of PSLDX with a $100 unrealized loss in the original 100 shares, but a $100 realized gain from the distribution. You could then sell off all your lots and the gain would offset the loss.
Now say you wanted to buy after the distribution. You want to buy the same $900 worth. $900 / $8 post distribution share price = 112.5 shares. Your basis on 112.5 shares is $900, so you have no gains or losses yet.
You end up with the same shares either way. It's just in the first case of buying before the distribution you would pay taxes on that distribution in a taxable account.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Yeah I too find how Vanguard calculates returns for this fund amusing. If I look at their numbers, it often shows an unrealized loss after a distribution while in reality the fund has advanced significantly in value from the shares that I originally purchased. It does make you do a double take or a need to relook at your purchase history to confirm that you are actually making money, its just that Vanguard has weird ways to calculate for this fund. Of course, it's really helpful that this fund is in a Roth IRA because of the distributions that it throws off as well.
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
E-Trade does the exact same thing. I just add up all the shares I bought directly (ignoring cap gain and dividend reinvestments) and subtract from the total they show to get gain. Or use XIRR to get the same result.drzzzzz wrote: ↑Fri Dec 10, 2021 12:30 pm Yeah I too find how Vanguard calculates returns for this fund amusing. If I look at their numbers, it often shows an unrealized loss after a distribution while in reality the fund has advanced significantly in value from the shares that I originally purchased. It does make you do a double take or a need to relook at your purchase history to confirm that you are actually making money, its just that Vanguard has weird ways to calculate for this fund. Of course, it's really helpful that this fund is in a Roth IRA because of the distributions that it throws off as well.
- firebirdparts
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
This fund pays out the return of the S&P500 in cash, so get accustomed to this. I hold it at Fidelity, where the 10% drops just disappear for a day, and that's a lot of money if you're looking at your total every day out of boredom or perhaps worse kinds of reasons. The fund value has remained about 8 or 9 dollars for 15 years already, and the return has averaged 17% over that time, so it's paying out, on average, that kind of money in a bull market. I don't really try to find out how big the distributions are any more. It just keeps happening over and over. Make sure you have reinvest dividends turned on (I mean if you want to).rickyroxy83 wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 7:51 pm Newbie to PSLDX here. I had about 33k in Roth IRA to start with last month. Bought them at $9. Today it dropped to 30k. When do I see the returns for this fund posted? ELI5 please. They are held at Vanguard, if that matters. Thank you.
If you were to come here and read the forum, several times a year somebody will ask "hey why did this drop 5% or 10%"?
This time is the same
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
It doesn't work that way. You still have to pay tax on dividends in a taxable account whether or not they are reinvested.perfectuncertainty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:52 amreinvest. No tax hit.burritoLover wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:18 am Why would you be excited about high capital gain distributions?
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Hence the reason for the advice not to use PSLDX in a taxable account.Chip wrote: ↑Sat Dec 11, 2021 11:01 amIt doesn't work that way. You still have to pay tax on dividends in a taxable account whether or not they are reinvested.perfectuncertainty wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 9:52 amreinvest. No tax hit.burritoLover wrote: ↑Thu Dec 09, 2021 8:18 am Why would you be excited about high capital gain distributions?
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
firebirdparts,
I'm curious how you came to hold this at Fidelity. Did you transfer shares in or were you able to make the purchase directly with Fidelity? Thanks!
Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
- OuterBanks
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Firebirdpants has posted in the past about buying it through a Fido 401k brokeragelink.
- firebirdparts
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Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?
that's a great question, and unfortunately, I bought it a few years ago when it was simply available and you were allowed to buy it. I was looking for mutual funds and there they all were, in brokeragelink, in a 401k, the whole PIMCO range. I bought 3 of the stocksplus products at that time, but only PSLDX seems to have genuinely outsize returns to me. In just a little while, they cut off the link back to PIMCO and I can't even pull up a mutual fund page within Fidelity. So "the rules changed" after I bought it. I'm allowed to buy more.
I don't think anybody can do now what I did then. You might be able to do it with a minimum $1 million purchase, but I don't know.
I don't think anybody can do now what I did then. You might be able to do it with a minimum $1 million purchase, but I don't know.
This time is the same