OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

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Taylor Larimore
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OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Taylor Larimore »

Bogleheads:

Welcome to the 2020 Boglehead Contest designed to demonstrate how difficult it is to forecast future stock prices.

Despite the odds, in 2019 a Boglehead with the username "buylowbuyhigh" out-guessed 631 other Bogleheads and 13 Wall Street Guru's with his January forecast of 3224.00, very close to the S&P 500 Index year-end close of 3230.78. WE SALUTE YOU! Please send me a Private Message (PM) with your name and mailing address to receive your prizes.

2019 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Rules for 2020:

* Forecast (below) what you think will be the closing price of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2020.
* Only one guess (no percentages and no changes).
* In the event of ties, the first forecast wins.
* Registration ends 12:00 midnight EDT, January 10, 2020

The winner of the 2020 Boglehead Contest will receive his or her choice of any one of these Boglehead Books: The Bogleheads' Guide to Investing; The Bogleheads' Guide to Retirement Planning or The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio.

Happy New Year and Good Luck!

Taylor and Ralph Aversen (programer)
Last edited by Taylor Larimore on Fri Jan 03, 2020 9:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"Simplicity is the master key to financial success." -- Jack Bogle
Silence Dogood
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Silence Dogood »

3333.33
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ReformedSpender
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by ReformedSpender »

3578

:beer
Market history shows that when there's economic blue sky, future returns are low, and when the economy is on the skids, future returns are high. The best fishing is done in the most stormy waters.
BlueCable
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by BlueCable »

3857.74
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Johnsson
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Johnsson »

3683.4
'In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is.' Yogi Berra
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vectorizer
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by vectorizer »

2751

Hope I'm wrong (on the low side)
Triple digit golfer
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Triple digit golfer »

2810.03
mighty72
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mighty72 »

I am in (again) @ 3599.99
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mrspock
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by mrspock »

3570.3
260chrisb
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by 260chrisb »

3909.24
maverick1968
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by maverick1968 »

2745.52
RubyTuesday
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by RubyTuesday »

3037 Is my guess.
“Doing nothing is better than being busy doing nothing.” – Lao Tzu
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Stef
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Stef »

My guess is 3589.
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willthrill81
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by willthrill81 »

3,617
“It's a dangerous business, Frodo, going out your door. You step onto the road, and if you don't keep your feet, there's no knowing where you might be swept off to.” J.R.R. Tolkien,The Lord of the Rings
2cents2
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by 2cents2 »

My guess is 3489.24
runner3081
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by runner3081 »

2,115.35
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oldcomputerguy
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by oldcomputerguy »

I'll once again be a contrarian, and guess at 2261.54
bgf
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bgf »

3683.09
“TE OCCIDERE POSSUNT SED TE EDERE NON POSSUNT NEFAS EST"
Silverado
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Silverado »

3544.76


That is the same as I put in the other thread.
Mars9800
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Mars9800 »

3,490
drdrgolf
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by drdrgolf »

3585.
Dominic
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JPH
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by JPH »

3153.36
While the moments do summersaults into eternity | Cling to their coattails and beg them to stay - Townes Van Zandt
veggivet
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by veggivet »

3567.89
If you watch your pennies, your dollars will take care of themselves.
calendario
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by calendario »

3381.01
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nedsaid
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by nedsaid »

My prediction is that the S&P 500 will wind up at 3,600 for 2020. I further predict that Taylor's 3 Fund Portfolio book will top the New York Times best seller list in 2020. I will step out even further and predict that the Great Swedroe and the Value Premium will finally arrive in 2020, at the precise time that Taylor hits Number One on the NYT best seller list. I will be there faithfully waiting in the Pumpkin Patch with my security blanket. The great Nedsaid, who knows all and sees all, has made his predictions with his amazing psychic powers.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Emeralds
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Emeralds »

3488.62
sambb
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sambb »

3529.28
Minty
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Minty »

3553.86
Core Four w/ nominal bonds & TIPS. Refi Rampage: Purchase: 3.875% 30 -> R1 3% 20 -> R2 2.375% 15 -> R3 1.99% 15
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augryphon
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by augryphon »

3,411.70
abner kravitz
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by abner kravitz »

3000.00
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LittleGreenSoldiers
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by LittleGreenSoldiers »

3808.32
tanstaafl
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tanstaafl »

3106.5
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tnbison
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tnbison »

3360.40
javabean
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by javabean »

3972.00
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Bodacious
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Bodacious »

My guess is 3876
jmg229
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by jmg229 »

3392.32
Windylotus
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Windylotus »

3,521.55
Suntan1
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Suntan1 »

3550.71
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spdoublebass
Posts: 755
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by spdoublebass »

$3456.78
I'm trying to think, but nothing happens
Jimmie
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Jimmie »

3505.39

And Taylor forgot to mention the Grand Prize: bragging rights.
offthetop
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by offthetop »

3611.27
Unladen_Swallow
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Unladen_Swallow »

3448.4
"I think it's much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong." - Richard Feynman
HomeStretch
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by HomeStretch »

3502

And may the market outperform my 2020 entry as much as it did my 2019 entry...
OhBoyUhoh
Posts: 50
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by OhBoyUhoh »

3477.43
bac573
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by bac573 »

3372.93
One thing to know about this town; not a person doesn't want me underground.
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H-Dog
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by H-Dog »

3034.75
Johnny Thinwallet
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by Johnny Thinwallet »

3589.76
Last edited by Johnny Thinwallet on Wed Jan 01, 2020 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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sperry8
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by sperry8 »

3498.24
BH contests: 2020 #253 of 664 | 19 #233 of 645 | 18 #150 of 493 | 17 #516 of 647 | 16 #121 of 610 | 15 #18 of 552 | 14 #225 of 503 | 13 #383 of 433 | 12 #366 of 410 | 11 #113 of 369 | 10 #53 of 282
tsohg
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by tsohg »

3480.
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2pedals
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Re: OFFICIAL REGISTRATION FOR THE 2020 BOGLEHEAD CONTEST

Post by 2pedals »

3535.
Last edited by 2pedals on Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:04 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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