Of course it is down, The Fed raising rates will almost certainly put Apple, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Nvidia and Amazon out of business, LOL. Zombie companies with no future. Not that people overreact or anything.
Yes, this is total sarcasm.
Of course it is down, The Fed raising rates will almost certainly put Apple, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Nvidia and Amazon out of business, LOL. Zombie companies with no future. Not that people overreact or anything.
It is sort of funny. You'd think you'd want to be in those companies in a rising rate environment since they have plenty of cash on hand.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:41 amOf course it is down, The Fed raising rates will almost certainly put Apple, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Nvidia and Amazon out of business, LOL. Zombie companies with no future. Not that people overreact or anything.
Yes, this is total sarcasm.
You would think, not like any of them will face serious increases in borrowing costs. Also, it seems to me they all make products that have a deflationary effect. I get the repricing thing but long term I think at least a couple of these companies have a future.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:08 amIt is sort of funny. You'd think you'd want to be in those companies in a rising rate environment since they have plenty of cash on hand.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:41 amOf course it is down, The Fed raising rates will almost certainly put Apple, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Nvidia and Amazon out of business, LOL. Zombie companies with no future. Not that people overreact or anything.
Yes, this is total sarcasm.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/stat ... 71617?s=20US 10-Year Treasury Yield...
Jan 1980: 10.7%
Jan 1985: 11.6%
Jan 1990: 8.0%
Jan 1995: 7.8%
Jan 2000: 6.7%
Jan 2005: 4.3%
Jan 2010: 3.9%
Jan 2015: 1.9%
Jan 2020: 1.8%
Jan 2021: 1.2%
Jan 2022: 1.8%
And interest rates are substantially unchanged.
This demonstrates that there a whole generation of young investors who have never experienced the "horror" of a 10 year Treasury at 5% or higher.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:40 am Saw this on Twitter and thought it was interesting.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/stat ... 71617?s=20US 10-Year Treasury Yield...
Jan 1980: 10.7%
Jan 1985: 11.6%
Jan 1990: 8.0%
Jan 1995: 7.8%
Jan 2000: 6.7%
Jan 2005: 4.3%
Jan 2010: 3.9%
Jan 2015: 1.9%
Jan 2020: 1.8%
Jan 2021: 1.2%
Jan 2022: 1.8%
I remember when savings accounts yielded 4-5% APY. And then people wonder why stocks are the only game in town now...Stinky wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:43 amThis demonstrates that there a whole generation of young investors who have never experienced the "horror" of a 10 year Treasury at 5% or higher.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:40 am Saw this on Twitter and thought it was interesting.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/stat ... 71617?s=20US 10-Year Treasury Yield...
Jan 1980: 10.7%
Jan 1985: 11.6%
Jan 1990: 8.0%
Jan 1995: 7.8%
Jan 2000: 6.7%
Jan 2005: 4.3%
Jan 2010: 3.9%
Jan 2015: 1.9%
Jan 2020: 1.8%
Jan 2021: 1.2%
Jan 2022: 1.8%
That's something that we old-timers used to think was just normal.
But what was inflation at that time? We keep hearing about how great CDs and bank accounts were, but net of inflation they still didn't do that well. CD rates after inflation have been between -2% and +4% for most of the last 60 years with an average of about 2%. True, there were a fleeting few years between 1982 and 1985 where you got lucky in CDs and bank accounts for a little while as inflation dropped.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:45 amI remember when savings accounts yielded 4-5% APY. And then people wonder why stocks are the only game in town now...Stinky wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:43 amThis demonstrates that there a whole generation of young investors who have never experienced the "horror" of a 10 year Treasury at 5% or higher.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:40 am Saw this on Twitter and thought it was interesting.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/stat ... 71617?s=20US 10-Year Treasury Yield...
Jan 1980: 10.7%
Jan 1985: 11.6%
Jan 1990: 8.0%
Jan 1995: 7.8%
Jan 2000: 6.7%
Jan 2005: 4.3%
Jan 2010: 3.9%
Jan 2015: 1.9%
Jan 2020: 1.8%
Jan 2021: 1.2%
Jan 2022: 1.8%
That's something that we old-timers used to think was just normal.
Exactly. Looking at returns by themselves means nothing if you don't know their inflation context.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:49 am But what was inflation at that time? We keep hearing about how great CDs and bank accounts were, but net of inflation they still didn't do that well. CD rates after inflation have been between -2% and +4% for most of the last 60 years with an average of about 2%. True, there were a fleeting few years between 1982 and 1985 where you got lucky in CDs and bank accounts for a little while as inflation dropped.
I think old timers need to keep in mind what they experienced isn't necessarily the norm.Stinky wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:43 amThis demonstrates that there a whole generation of young investors who have never experienced the "horror" of a 10 year Treasury at 5% or higher.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:40 am Saw this on Twitter and thought it was interesting.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/stat ... 71617?s=20US 10-Year Treasury Yield...
Jan 1980: 10.7%
Jan 1985: 11.6%
Jan 1990: 8.0%
Jan 1995: 7.8%
Jan 2000: 6.7%
Jan 2005: 4.3%
Jan 2010: 3.9%
Jan 2015: 1.9%
Jan 2020: 1.8%
Jan 2021: 1.2%
Jan 2022: 1.8%
That's something that we old-timers used to think was just normal.
Ah but which two? Because obviously the rest are goners...TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:19 amYou would think, not like any of them will face serious increases in borrowing costs. Also, it seems to me they all make products that have a deflationary effect. I get the repricing thing but long term I think at least a couple of these companies have a future.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:08 amIt is sort of funny. You'd think you'd want to be in those companies in a rising rate environment since they have plenty of cash on hand.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:41 amOf course it is down, The Fed raising rates will almost certainly put Apple, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Nvidia and Amazon out of business, LOL. Zombie companies with no future. Not that people overreact or anything.
Yes, this is total sarcasm.
That's why stock picking is so hard.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 1:56 pmAh but which two? Because obviously the rest are goners...TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:19 amYou would think, not like any of them will face serious increases in borrowing costs. Also, it seems to me they all make products that have a deflationary effect. I get the repricing thing but long term I think at least a couple of these companies have a future.atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:08 amIt is sort of funny. You'd think you'd want to be in those companies in a rising rate environment since they have plenty of cash on hand.TheTimeLord wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:41 amOf course it is down, The Fed raising rates will almost certainly put Apple, Google, Microsoft, Adobe, Nvidia and Amazon out of business, LOL. Zombie companies with no future. Not that people overreact or anything.
Yes, this is total sarcasm.
We want you to work hard for an INCREASE!
LEGR has actually been doing quite well lately, for a tech fund:
What Fed official said that?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:52 pm CPI would be a huge report. I also find it interesting that some Fed officials are now saying 4~5 hikes this year, as opposed to only 3 as reported previously.
I think I got mixed up. The St. Louis Fed president Bullard said the first hike might be as early as March, then Jamie Dimon of J.P.Morgan said "would be surprised if it's just four increases this year" but Dimon is not a Fed official.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:04 pm What Fed official said that?
I only heard that the markets seems to be asking for based on some metrics over at Bloomberg. I don't fully understand them, but until I see another dot plot saying otherwise, I think, it's three hikes with maybe a forth to get us to 1%. We'll see what happens. I'm betting Powell waits for some news on supply chain issues resolving themselves before becoming super aggressive.
March seems highly likely. It's the timing of the other ones.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:09 pmI think I got mixed up. The St. Louis Fed president Bullard said the first hike might be as early as March, then Jamie Dimon of J.P.Morgan said "would be surprised if it's just four increases this year" but Dimon is not a Fed official.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:04 pm What Fed official said that?
I only heard that the markets seems to be asking for based on some metrics over at Bloomberg. I don't fully understand them, but until I see another dot plot saying otherwise, I think, it's three hikes with maybe a forth to get us to 1%. We'll see what happens. I'm betting Powell waits for some news on supply chain issues resolving themselves before becoming super aggressive.
The Atlanta Fed chair Bostic also supports the idea of a March hike: https://www.thestreet.com/investing/atl ... ike-needed
Happy CPI report! Meeting expectations.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:38 pm CPI report coming 8:30am et tomorrow morning (Wednesday, 1/12). Keep your fingers and toes crossed that it comes in at consensus.
CPI link
For a refresher, there is a great graph on this page showing various inflation metrics.
And US stocks seem poised to resume their regularly scheduled soaring.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:34 amHappy CPI report! Meeting expectations.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:38 pm CPI report coming 8:30am et tomorrow morning (Wednesday, 1/12). Keep your fingers and toes crossed that it comes in at consensus.
CPI link
For a refresher, there is a great graph on this page showing various inflation metrics.
So the CPI report did not just meet expectations, it exceeded them. I am not so certain this is a good thing, but Mr. Market is once again green this morning.Stinky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:25 amAnd US stocks seem poised to resume their regularly scheduled soaring.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:34 amHappy CPI report! Meeting expectations.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:38 pm CPI report coming 8:30am et tomorrow morning (Wednesday, 1/12). Keep your fingers and toes crossed that it comes in at consensus.
CPI link
For a refresher, there is a great graph on this page showing various inflation metrics.
Maybe more I Bond posts.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:38 amSo the CPI report did not just meet expectations, it exceeded them. I am not so certain this is a good thing, but Mr. Market is once again green this morning.Stinky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:25 amAnd US stocks seem poised to resume their regularly scheduled soaring.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:34 amHappy CPI report! Meeting expectations.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:38 pm CPI report coming 8:30am et tomorrow morning (Wednesday, 1/12). Keep your fingers and toes crossed that it comes in at consensus.
CPI link
For a refresher, there is a great graph on this page showing various inflation metrics.
And this investor is going to do the most intelligent thing he can think of on this news, which is NOTHING.
The news on CPI was not in the headline.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:38 amSo the CPI report did not just meet expectations, it exceeded them. I am not so certain this is a good thing, but Mr. Market is once again green this morning.Stinky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 8:25 amAnd US stocks seem poised to resume their regularly scheduled soaring.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 7:34 amHappy CPI report! Meeting expectations.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 5:38 pm CPI report coming 8:30am et tomorrow morning (Wednesday, 1/12). Keep your fingers and toes crossed that it comes in at consensus.
CPI link
For a refresher, there is a great graph on this page showing various inflation metrics.
And this investor is going to do the most intelligent thing he can think of on this news, which is NOTHING.
Great post, thanks GWgarlandwhizzer wrote: ↑Tue Jan 11, 2022 6:10 pm I believe it's a mistake to pay much attention to the ups and downs of one day of market action. Or why it happened that particular way on that day. Short term thinking provides a very appealing emotional hook, but it's not the raw material for long term investing success. It's easy to say "think only about the long term, forget the daily noise," but it's hard to do.
Long term success for most of is derives from the hard work of finding the right asset allocation tailored to each of us personally and then doing the boring disciplined habit of adding assets to it on a regular, hopefully monthly, basis. You do that regardless of what the market is doing at that particular time whether it's a deep bear of an exuberant bull. Over a long time frame that approach has consistently generated excellent returns. Most who spend their mental energy focusing on short term market gyrations, especially for a single day, tend to go through more emotional ups and downs. They also tend to underperform the boring disciplined strategy that pays little or no attention to short term market gyrations. One key to success IMO is focusing only on what's important--long term goals, strategies, and outcomes--and neglecting what's not important--short term noise.
Garland Whizzer
Terrible inflation -> aggressive fed tapering -> recession -> lower inflation -> aggressive fed easing
Of course, there are many ways that such long logic chains can fall apart.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:41 amTerrible inflation -> aggressive fed tapering -> recession -> lower inflation -> aggressive fed easing
Market is just playing the 4D chess long game expecting the punch bowl to return
Yeah, I'm sure that ex-U.S. being up almost 3% YTD over U.S. is a clear signal that the dramatic underperformance of ex-U.S. for 15 years is over.
I was waiting for someone to bring this up.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:52 amYeah, I'm sure that ex-U.S. being up almost 3% YTD over U.S. is a clear signal that the dramatic underperformance of ex-U.S. for 15 years is over.
Meanwhile, AVUV (U.S. SCV) is ahead of both YTD.
AVDV and AVES are both performing better than AVUV this year.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:52 amYeah, I'm sure that ex-U.S. being up almost 3% YTD over U.S. is a clear signal that the dramatic underperformance of ex-U.S. for 15 years is over.
Meanwhile, AVUV (U.S. SCV) is ahead of both YTD.
The moral story is global SCV for the win?Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:57 amAVDV and AVES are both performing better than AVUV this year.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 10:52 amYeah, I'm sure that ex-U.S. being up almost 3% YTD over U.S. is a clear signal that the dramatic underperformance of ex-U.S. for 15 years is over.
Meanwhile, AVUV (U.S. SCV) is ahead of both YTD.
When TSM of one region outperforms, and factor premiums show up, then regional factor performance tends to be perform better as well (and has magnified gains vs TSM)
Is America a great country or what?peskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:10 pmYes! We can have high inflation, high corporate profits, increasing interest rates, QE tapering and cake! Turns out...we can actually have it all.
Is America a great country or what?peskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 4:10 pmYes! We can have high inflation, high corporate profits, increasing interest rates, QE tapering and cake! Turns out...we can actually have it all.