U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

mrspock wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 5:44 am
HanSolo wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 3:28 am
mrspock wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 2:27 am I win no matter what
You mean that's a certainty?
Nothing in life is absolutely certain…. but given my investment horizon, my AA and my ability to handle crashes, it’s pretty darn close barring nuclear war.
I don't know how long your investment horizon is, but I'm guessing that there are people alive today who had to hang on for an even longer period to recover from a stock market downturn. I'm not saying that this is the more likely outcome, just a possibility that's been demonstrated (even without nuclear war). As long as you're aware that the market does that sometimes, and you're OK with it, then there's no issue.
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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

tomorrow looking ugly.
EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by EnjoyIt »

minimalistmarc wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:03 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Wed Sep 15, 2021 11:59 pm 1929 IS in the data set…
This is why I have 10+ years in bonds/cash.

I know most everyone else thinks 1-2 years is plenty, but, like you said, 1929 IS in the data-set.
1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.

I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…

What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Nah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.

Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.

Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
Yep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.
"Scared"
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm
minimalistmarc wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:03 pm

This is why I have 10+ years in bonds/cash.

I know most everyone else thinks 1-2 years is plenty, but, like you said, 1929 IS in the data-set.
1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.

I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…

What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Nah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.

Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.

Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
Yep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.
"Scared"
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
Well that kind of happened in the 2000s...

SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).

Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.

In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
EnjoyIt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by EnjoyIt »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm
minimalistmarc wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm

1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.

I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…

What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Nah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.

Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.

Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
Yep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.
"Scared"
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
Well that kind of happened in the 2000s...

SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).

Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.

In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
To my understanding the Great Depression was far worse than the Great Recession though I appreciate where you are coming from. 2009 did not scare me though I did not have much wealth back then. I stayed the course and I bought a few gold coins out of fear. Still have them today to remind me to never do that again. Plus they are pleasing to hold in your hand.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: | viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm
minimalistmarc wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm

1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.

I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…

What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Nah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.

Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.

Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
Yep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.
"Scared"
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
Well that kind of happened in the 2000s...

SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).

Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.

In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
Largely agree with you.
Although, I am betting that year 2000 retiree did have some nervous moments. In hindsight, it looks like the 4% rule will work again, but there were some years where the balance got down pretty low, and no one knew when (maybe even if) were going to come out of it. I suspect even real people who adjusted their spending had some nervous nights.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm
minimalistmarc wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm

1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.

I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…

What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Nah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.

Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.

Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
Yep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.
"Scared"
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
Well that kind of happened in the 2000s...

SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).

Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.

In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
80% is a lot scarier than 60% in or near retirement.

$400K is like…woah, no more trips for a while. Gonna cut down to $20K a year (2%). 5% for a few years will be bad but the portfolio can recover.

$200K is like…well that whole saving and investing thing was pointless. We’ll burn through 10% a year even with a 50% haircut and a couple, three years of that will mean the portfolio never recovers.

80% isn’t 20% worse than 60%…its half as much money you have to live on if you are retired or facing a higher probability of being unwillingly retired in a depression.

Granted a large part of your AA should be in bonds so things won’t be that dire but GFC and Great Recession was a moderate Cat 4 storm to 1929 and the Great Depression’s Cat 5.

It could have gotten worse but didn’t.

Folks who can live entirely on pensions and/or SS will be okay.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

nigel_ht wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:54 am
HomerJ wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pm
EnjoyIt wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm
minimalistmarc wrote: Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 am
HomerJ wrote: Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pm

Nah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.

Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.

Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
Yep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.
"Scared"
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
Well that kind of happened in the 2000s...

SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).

Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.

In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
80% is a lot scarier than 60% in or near retirement.

$400K is like…woah, no more trips for a while. Gonna cut down to $20K a year (2%). 5% for a few years will be bad but the portfolio can recover.

$200K is like…well that whole saving and investing thing was pointless. We’ll burn through 10% a year even with a 50% haircut and a couple, three years of that will mean the portfolio never recovers.

80% isn’t 20% worse than 60%…its half as much money you have to live on if you are retired or facing a higher probability of being unwillingly retired in a depression.

Granted a large part of your AA should be in bonds so things won’t be that dire but GFC and Great Recession was a moderate Cat 4 storm to 1929 and the Great Depression’s Cat 5.

It could have gotten worse but didn’t.

Folks who can live entirely on pensions and/or SS will be okay.
The Great Depression was worse because the Fed did everything wrong. The Great Recession, AT THE TIME, absolutely could have been Great Depression II, except that Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, was a student of the Great Depression, and didn't make the same mistakes.

You make all the same points we make here every year when we tell people to go more conservative right before retirement.

100% stock portfolio FAILED for someone retiring in 1929, for exactly the reasons you listed above.

And 100% stock portfolio was pretty scary for anyone who retired in 2000 or 2008. 50-60% drop in 2008 would really hurt, and at the time, indications were that 80% was possible.

A 60/40 portfolio did just fine during the Great Depression and 2000, and would have made 2008 a lot less scary (although 100% stocks worked for a 2008 retiree, since the recovery was so fast).

(As for folks who can live entirely on pensions and/or SS, they are a vanishing small percentage of the population. Less and less people get good pensions every year. Good for them I guess, but none of these discussions really apply to them)
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
mr_brightside
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mr_brightside »

anybody going into retirement at 100% stocks after such a run-up is just asking for it...

(of course with a large 'guaranteed' income like a pension that ameliorates it substantially)

------------------------------
L84SUPR
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by L84SUPR »

mr_brightside wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:02 am anybody going into retirement at 100% stocks after such a run-up is just asking for it...

(of course with a large 'guaranteed' income like a pension that ameliorates it substantially)

------------------------------
I'll take a bond bridge to go please. 7X in Bonds = very low retirement date risk for us.

We all share the same economy and the hazards that come with it. But we perceive the consequences differently based on the specifics of our situations. The trick is to figure out which risks you need to mitigate to sleep well.

Getting my pride hurt because somebody else has a higher personal rate of return or more aggressive AA is a risk I'm willing to take.

Having to work several more years than I want because I imagine myself as having high risk tolerance is a risk I don't want to take.

So here I am sitting on a much maligned 60/40 AA.

Edit: spellin'
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namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

L84SUPR wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:26 am

So here I am sitting on a much maligned 60/40 AA.

Edit: spellin'
I'm not sure who is maligning 60/40 in retirement. I'm at 40/60 and feel just fine and unmaligned.

viewtopic.php?t=316934
L84SUPR
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by L84SUPR »

namajones wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:11 pm
L84SUPR wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:26 am

So here I am sitting on a much maligned 60/40 AA.

Edit: spellin'
I'm not sure who is maligning 60/40 in retirement. I'm at 40/60 and feel just fine and unmaligned.

viewtopic.php?t=316934
Nobody of any consequence, just the bond doomsayers fishing for clicks.

Thanks for the link.
1/3rd VTWAX, 1/3rd Wellington, 1/3rd G Fund | All models are wrong. Some are useful.
Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

Meltup at the end may portend better things tomorrow.
Last edited by Nicolas on Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

Soared right into close!
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Tomorrow probably goes green, the big question is Wednesday + FOMC.
Blue456
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

I don't see any soaring. Why is this thread active?
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Blue456 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:26 pm I don't see any soaring. Why is this thread active?
Eye of the beholder (and selecting the start point), I guess.
Hyperchicken
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hyperchicken »

Blue456 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:26 pm I don't see any soaring. Why is this thread active?
Zoom out to 1-year view, and it's soaring all the way.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Blue456 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 5:26 pm I don't see any soaring. Why is this thread active?
Because the other one is too crowded right now.

Plus if we don't keep bumping this thread, we may never find it again :twisted:
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Future is green for the moment so just warming up the thread for tomorrow.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

jarjarM wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:23 pm Future is green for the moment so just warming up the thread for tomorrow.
Let the soaring resume! To infinity and beyond!

:greedy
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:12 pm
jarjarM wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:23 pm Future is green for the moment so just warming up the thread for tomorrow.
Let the soaring resume! To infinity and beyond!

:greedy
I wouldn't celebrate anything until after the FOMC. The rates decision not a big deal this time, but a huge press conference coming up.
000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:41 pm I wouldn't celebrate anything until after the FOMC. The rates decision not a big deal this time, but a huge press conference coming up.
Alright, back to the bear cave then. It's starting to get chilly outside anyway.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Firing up this thread today.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Looks like a taper down in progress...
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

And down we go
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:07 am And down we go
The board still looks green to me.

We had the usual opening bell price discovery fluctuations, but it is settling in at least a little bit positive.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:24 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:07 am And down we go
The board still looks green to me.

We had the usual opening bell price discovery fluctuations, but it is settling in at least a little bit positive.
For now... sort of a sad 0.14% bounce after yesterday's 2.5% sell-off
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:26 am
CurlyDave wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:24 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:07 am And down we go
The board still looks green to me.

We had the usual opening bell price discovery fluctuations, but it is settling in at least a little bit positive.
For now... sort of a sad 0.14% bounce after yesterday's 2.5% sell-off
... also known as a "dead cat bounce."
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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pm SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
An amazing fact that very few people ever contemplate:

On 3/5/2009 the S&P 500 hit its bottom for the 2000s bear market. Inflation adjusted to current 2021 value, the index sat at 822.

That value was effectively equivalent to the top of the index (again in inflation adjusted terms) for the 1960s Go Go years achieved at 830 on 11/29/1968.

That means over 40 years of S&P 500 growth had disappeared! But! that day was actually not the worst long-term price return in the history of the US Stock Market!

9/7/1929 (495) to 8/12/1982 (286) was even worse and over a decade longer!

Oh what days to buy :sharebeer

Real investors had very different returns of course due to dividend reinvestment and regular contributions for saving purposes. But just looking at the "market", the GFC was about as bad as it gets.

Image
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:56 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:26 am
CurlyDave wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:24 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:07 am And down we go
The board still looks green to me.

We had the usual opening bell price discovery fluctuations, but it is settling in at least a little bit positive.
For now... sort of a sad 0.14% bounce after yesterday's 2.5% sell-off
... also known as a "dead cat bounce."
And now the dead cat is officially dead, back in the red
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bugleheadd »

atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:04 am
HanSolo wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:56 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:26 am
CurlyDave wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:24 am
atdharris wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:07 am And down we go
The board still looks green to me.

We had the usual opening bell price discovery fluctuations, but it is settling in at least a little bit positive.
For now... sort of a sad 0.14% bounce after yesterday's 2.5% sell-off
... also known as a "dead cat bounce."
And now the dead cat is officially dead, back in the red
cat is live and bouncing
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

bugleheadd wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:08 am
...cat is live and bouncing
Well, the saying is that cats have 9 lives...
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

retiringwhen wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:57 am
HomerJ wrote: Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pm SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
An amazing fact that very few people ever contemplate:

On 3/5/2009 the S&P 500 hit its bottom for the 2000s bear market. Inflation adjusted to current 2021 value, the index sat at 822.

That value was effectively equivalent to the top of the index (again in inflation adjusted terms) for the 1960s Go Go years achieved at 830 on 11/29/1968.

That means over 40 years of S&P 500 growth had disappeared! But! that day was actually not the worst long-term price return in the history of the US Stock Market!

9/7/1929 (495) to 8/12/1982 (286) was even worse and over a decade longer!

Oh what days to buy :sharebeer

Real investors had very different returns of course due to dividend reinvestment and regular contributions for saving purposes. But just looking at the "market", the GFC was about as bad as it gets.

Image
None of the above includes dividends, so it's really not a very good analysis... I know you are quoting me, and I skipped dividends too, so I'm guilty as well, but you're skipping dividends for 40 and 50 years, and that's HUGE... Like you're missing 500% (more?) of the stock market gains over those years.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Back to soaring!
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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:52 am None of the above includes dividends, so it's really not a very good analysis... I know you are quoting me, and I skipped dividends too, so I'm guilty as well, but you're skipping dividends for 40 and 50 years, and that's HUGE... Like you're missing 500% (more?) of the stock market gains over those years.
This is what I said in another post about the reason for my chart:
Price Change Only - This is a representation of the S&P 500 price change over time and does not factor in Total Return (aka reinvested dividends.) Actual investor returns would be vastly different. For example a reinvestment strategy would shorten the total return recovery (even inflation adjusted) by approximately half for all three of the Major Secular Bear Markets. I know first hand that the 2000s were much better to me than this chart would suggest. But, this chart is about fear, not returns...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:09 am Back to soaring!
I can't ride roller coasters with my back issue, so this is as close as I get :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

sailaway wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:09 am Back to soaring!
I can't ride roller coasters with my back issue, so this is as close as I get :beer
Definitely a roller coaster today.
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jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

000 wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:12 pm
jarjarM wrote: Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:23 pm Future is green for the moment so just warming up the thread for tomorrow.
Let the soaring resume! To infinity and beyond!

:greedy
I have so much faith in the soaring, that I bought some SQQQ at 7.95. Hope it end up costing me a pretty penny. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:05 pm
sailaway wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:09 am Back to soaring!
I can't ride roller coasters with my back issue, so this is as close as I get :beer
Definitely a roller coaster today.
Is a melt up at the end of the day too much to ask for? :mrgreen:
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:20 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:05 pm
sailaway wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:09 am Back to soaring!
I can't ride roller coasters with my back issue, so this is as close as I get :beer
Definitely a roller coaster today.
Is a melt up at the end of the day too much to ask for? :mrgreen:
No such luck :(
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 2:20 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 12:05 pm
sailaway wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 11:09 am Back to soaring!
I can't ride roller coasters with my back issue, so this is as close as I get :beer
Definitely a roller coaster today.
Is a melt up at the end of the day too much to ask for? :mrgreen:
More like a melt down
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Another day with future green but we'll see what happen after the FOMC meeting.
sailaway
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

jarjarM wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:32 pm Another day with future green but we'll see what happen after the FOMC meeting.

Pshaw, there are still many hours to go before open, much less any business hours events.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

jarjarM wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:32 pm Another day with future green but we'll see what happen after the FOMC meeting.
I'm expecting a red day after the FOMC presser by Chair Powell. I don't think the market would like what he will say.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:41 pm
jarjarM wrote: Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:32 pm Another day with future green but we'll see what happen after the FOMC meeting.
I'm expecting a red day after the FOMC presser by Chair Powell. I don't think the market would like what he will say.
I agree. Any "tightening", either real or perceived, will not be appreciated by Mr. (US Equity) Market.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
Would love to see 4800 before the end of the year!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Admiral »

Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
:oops:
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