Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am
The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
Too optimistic in my opinion. Hard to see us going to -60% without dropping further (at least temporarily) to -80%+ due to panic selling and margin calls.
Classic permabear psychology. They never take advantage of the opportunity because they are worried about another little 20% drop.
Not worried, just realistic.
You assume too much about what my strategy during bear markets is.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am
The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
How long will it take to get back to new record highs after the bust?
Decade or more, the next big bull market trend will be in commodities & commodity producers.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am
The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
How long will it take to get back to new record highs after the bust?
Decade or more, the next big bull market trend will be in commodities & commodity producers.
I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:44 pm
I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
I've heard you say this several times, and I just don't understand why pension funds would be a factor to prevent a prolonged downturn.
In fact someone posted a chart recently (might have been you) which said that when pension funds go aggressive, the markets crash.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:44 pm
I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
Still possible to get a crash followed by the printers running to bail everyone out. Most US corporate pensions are in nominal dollars.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:44 pm
I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
Still possible to get a crash followed by the printers running to bail everyone out. Most US corporate pensions are in nominal dollars.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:44 pm
I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
I've heard you say this several times, and I just don't understand why pension funds would be a factor to prevent a prolonged downturn.
In fact someone posted a chart recently (might have been you) which said that when pension funds go aggressive, the markets crash.
The time around the fed is forcing everyone into the markets by stating openly stating that will let inflation run hot while keep bond yields low. I think it will crash but the end result will be fed buying stocks. Yellen has said it would be a good idea for the fed to own equities. Given the right catalyst, I think she can now get it passed through congress.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am
The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
How long will it take to get back to new record highs after the bust?
Decade or more, the next big bull market trend will be in commodities & commodity producers.
Brought to you by... "Memory - better than guessing"
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:41 am
Ominous double top formation... this thread won't see 170 pages for a very long time. Now that the ATH was breached the mania wears off and introspection begins. SPX 3,400 waits for another year (decade?).
vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm
Brought to you by... "Memory - better than guessing"
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:41 am
Ominous double top formation... this thread won't see 170 pages for a very long time. Now that the ATH was breached the mania wears off and introspection begins. SPX 3,400 waits for another year (decade?).
How many times can one person be wrong?
Amazing that this thread has more pages from the past year than the previous two going back to its creation.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am
The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
How long will it take to get back to new record highs after the bust?
Decade or more, the next big bull market trend will be in commodities & commodity producers.
I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
When you called Dent an expert, I assume you were being sarcastic
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am
The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
How long will it take to get back to new record highs after the bust?
Decade or more, the next big bull market trend will be in commodities & commodity producers.
I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
When you called Dent an expert, I assume you were being sarcastic
Those guys are wrong a lot. I see a higher probability of a hyperinflation scenario mentioned by Burry.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:44 pm
...I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
How did Harry Dent achieve "expert" status? He has been spectacularly wrong in the past, but keeps coming back. Not the guy I would take advice from.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 5:44 pm
...I find it hard to believe because of pension funds, but there are a few experts, e.g. Harry Dent and Jeff Gundlach, calling for something like this.
How did Harry Dent achieve "expert" status? He has been spectacularly wrong in the past, but keeps coming back. Not the guy I would take advice from.
Their prediction is similar to Forester's.
It is impossible to predict anything now because the fed's next action is unknown.
The only prediction I can make is that given the moral hazard they have created, they will keep doing things to keep the market elevated. If permission from congress is needed, then a crash may be the only way to get it.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:29 pm
Their prediction is similar to Forester's.
It is impossible to predict anything now because the fed's next action is unknown.
The only prediction I can make is that given the moral hazard they have created, they will keep doing things to keep the market elevated. If permission from congress is needed, then a crash may be the only way to get it.
The future has always been impossible to predict. That is a fundamental aspect of the future.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 9:29 pm
Their prediction is similar to Forester's.
It is impossible to predict anything now because the fed's next action is unknown.
The only prediction I can make is that given the moral hazard they have created, they will keep doing things to keep the market elevated. If permission from congress is needed, then a crash may be the only way to get it.
The future has always been impossible to predict. That is a fundamental aspect of the future.
It's possible to make some reasonable predictions, e.g. we knew housing was going to crash given the low lending standards and rampant speculation. Of course, if the fed was intervening at the time, then a crash wouldn't have happened. The actually caused the crash by raising rates, and then stepped in to bail out the system. It's similar now with over leverage and speculation everywhere. The main difference is that they are still fueling the fire right now. So the immediate prediction is that market will keep going up. When they announce their next move, we can revisit the prediction.
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:16 pm
It's possible to make some reasonable predictions, e.g. we knew housing was going to crash given the low lending standards and rampant speculation. Of course, if the fed was intervening at the time, then a crash wouldn't have happened. The actually caused the crash by raising rates, and then stepped in to bail out the system. It's similar now with over leverage and speculation everywhere. The main difference is that they are still fueling the fire right now. So the immediate prediction is that market will keep going up. When they announce their next move, we can revisit the prediction.
I wonder what you think you are going to do with that prediction. Besides getting the direction right, one also has to get the timing roughly right. Then one has to get the reverse trip right.
Guys like Harry Dent are wrong far more often than they are right. More importantly, as Peter Lynch said, far more money is lost preparing for recessions than is lost in the actual recession.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
anoop wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:16 pm
It's possible to make some reasonable predictions, e.g. we knew housing was going to crash given the low lending standards and rampant speculation. Of course, if the fed was intervening at the time, then a crash wouldn't have happened. The actually caused the crash by raising rates, and then stepped in to bail out the system. It's similar now with over leverage and speculation everywhere. The main difference is that they are still fueling the fire right now. So the immediate prediction is that market will keep going up. When they announce their next move, we can revisit the prediction.
I wonder what you think you are going to do with that prediction. Besides getting the direction right, one also has to get the timing roughly right. Then one has to get the reverse trip right.
Guys like Harry Dent are wrong far more often than they are right. More importantly, as Peter Lynch said, far more money is lost preparing for recessions than is lost in the actual recession.
Based on that prediction, I backed out of buying a house in 2004. That turned out to be the correct decision. I also pulled out of stocks in early '08. Also a correct decision. I bought a house in 2015. Also well timed. The big thing I didn't do was get back in the market. I really wanted to make it using fixed income only (Zvi Bodie), but the fed's policies have killed that approach.
Right now the stock market will keep going up but the entire market is broken -- no price discovery and now we are soon going to be seeing major shortages. Stocks at all time high but store shelves and car dealerships empty. It reminds me of my time in Nigeria in the early 80's.
I think we move sideways to slightly up until stimulus passes. Depending on size we could go up like a gentle slope or up vertically (3.5t would produce a vertical climb). If that passes, I'm going all in with my 401k.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:03 am
Based on that prediction, I backed out of buying a house in 2004. That turned out to be the correct decision. I also pulled out of stocks in early '08. Also a correct decision. I bought a house in 2015. Also well timed. The big thing I didn't do was get back in the market. I really wanted to make it using fixed income only (Zvi Bodie), but the fed's policies have killed that approach.
Right now the stock market will keep going up but the entire market is broken -- no price discovery and now we are soon going to be seeing major shortages. Stocks at all time high but store shelves and car dealerships empty. It reminds me of my time in Nigeria in the early 80's.
I think we move sideways to slightly up until stimulus passes. Depending on size we could go up like a gentle slope or up vertically (3.5t would produce a vertical climb). If that passes, I'm going all in with my 401k.
Why are you timing the market so much though? The BH philosophy is all about crafting an AA you can hold comfortably without freaking out. In that sense, I don't think pulling out of stocks in early '08 was a correct decision because S&P500 is way higher than that now.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:03 am
Based on that prediction, I backed out of buying a house in 2004. That turned out to be the correct decision. I also pulled out of stocks in early '08. Also a correct decision. I bought a house in 2015. Also well timed. The big thing I didn't do was get back in the market. I really wanted to make it using fixed income only (Zvi Bodie), but the fed's policies have killed that approach.
Right now the stock market will keep going up but the entire market is broken -- no price discovery and now we are soon going to be seeing major shortages. Stocks at all time high but store shelves and car dealerships empty. It reminds me of my time in Nigeria in the early 80's.
I think we move sideways to slightly up until stimulus passes. Depending on size we could go up like a gentle slope or up vertically (3.5t would produce a vertical climb). If that passes, I'm going all in with my 401k.
Why are you timing the market so much though? The BH philosophy is all about crafting an AA you can hold comfortably without freaking out. In that sense, I don't think pulling out of stocks in early '08 was a correct decision because S&P500 is way higher than that now.
My forever comfortable AA is 0% stocks 100% fixed income. That model is obviously broken. A small amount of stock (like what I have now) is unlikely to keep up with inflation. I don't care about growing my portfolio as much as I care about preserving its purchasing power. I don't even mind losing 2% per year (I would think of it as having a really bad broker). But I do mind losing 10% per year, because that's going to compound very quickly and I'll be left with beans by the time I retire. The bulk of my portfolio is set to lose 5-10% of its purchasing power this year alone depending on what you believe is real inflation.
Last edited by anoop on Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:17 am
My forever comfortable AA is 0% stocks 100% fixed income. That model is obviously broken. A small amount of stock (like what I have now) is unlikely to keep up with inflation. I don't care about growing my portfolio as much as I care about preserving its purchasing power. I don't even mind losing 2% per year (I would think of it as having a really bad broker). But I do mind losing 10% per year, because that's going to compound very quickly and I'll be left with beans by the time I retire. The bulk of my portfolio is set to lose 5-10% of its purchasing power depending on what you believe is real inflation.
While I don't think 0/100 is a great allocation, a bigger issue is that I hear words like "I'm going all in with my 401k." It is important to pick something and stick with it. If you think 0/100 is broken, what's your next-best solution? Can you stick with that?
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:17 am
My forever comfortable AA is 0% stocks 100% fixed income. That model is obviously broken. A small amount of stock (like what I have now) is unlikely to keep up with inflation. I don't care about growing my portfolio as much as I care about preserving its purchasing power. I don't even mind losing 2% per year (I would think of it as having a really bad broker). But I do mind losing 10% per year, because that's going to compound very quickly and I'll be left with beans by the time I retire. The bulk of my portfolio is set to lose 5-10% of its purchasing power depending on what you believe is real inflation.
While I don't think 0/100 is a great allocation, a bigger issue is that I hear words like "I'm going all in with my 401k." It is important to pick something and stick with it. If you think 0/100 is broken, what's your next-best solution? Can you stick with that?
There's just not enough return in that. Let's say market goes up 20% and inflation goes up 10%. If I put 25% in the market, my overall return is only 5% and I'll be trailing inflation by 5%. On the other hand, if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money" that the fed is giving away and retreat back to cash and wait for the next round of stimulus.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:17 amI don't care about growing my portfolio as much as I care about preserving its purchasing power. I don't even mind losing 2% per year (I would think of it as having a really bad broker).
Put all your bond money in I-bonds and TIPs.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:17 amI don't care about growing my portfolio as much as I care about preserving its purchasing power. I don't even mind losing 2% per year (I would think of it as having a really bad broker).
Put all your bond money in I-bonds and TIPs.
That is where I was at before the recent clown show. I just got out of TIPS because I didn't want to deal with TD. I was buying TIPS in my Roth, but stopped after the yields went negative. TIPS is not an option in my 401k and I don't think it makes sense for taxable because of tax due on potentially phantom income.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 am
There's just not enough return in that. Let's say market goes up 20% and inflation goes up 10%. If I put 25% in the market, my overall return is only 5% and I'll be trailing inflation by 5%. On the other hand, if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money" that the fed is giving away and retreat back to cash and wait for the next round of stimulus.
Personal finance is personal, but what you just described doesn't sound in-line with the Bogleheads philosophy.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 amOn the other hand, if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money" that the fed is giving away and retreat back to cash and wait for the next round of stimulus.
It's almost like you haven't learned anything from the people on this board or even your own experience.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am
The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
How long will it take to get back to new record highs after the bust?
Decade or more, the next big bull market trend will be in commodities & commodity producers.
Brought to you by... "Memory - better than guessing"
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:41 am
Ominous double top formation... this thread won't see 170 pages for a very long time. Now that the ATH was breached the mania wears off and introspection begins. SPX 3,400 waits for another year (decade?).
How many times can one person be wrong?
I'm reminded of a Simpsons episode where Homer watched Smooth Jimmy Apollo make NFL predictions. Smooth Jimmy held up a giant padlock and confidently said a particular game was his "lock of the week." Homer, thoughtfully considering this advice, said "ooh, that's a very big lock!"
Smooth Jimmy later reminded fans that his 52% accuracy rating meant he would be wrong 48% of the time. If only everyone where as honest as Smooth Jimmy.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 am
if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money"
I you could do that, you would have already won. Remember the little buying opportunity last year???
Or just short the market according to Forester's predictions. Apparently we are on the cusp of 50% collapse.
That's gotta work, right?
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 am
if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money"
I you could do that, you would have already won. Remember the little buying opportunity last year???
Or just short the market according to Forester's predictions. Apparently we are on the cusp of 50% collapse.
That's gotta work, right?
It has been a slow bleed over the last couple of weeks. No real "crash" or anything like that, but we seem to be opening in the green nearly every day and sell off mid-morning. Oh well, at least my 401k buy won't go through at an ATH on Friday.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 am
if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money"
I you could do that, you would have already won. Remember the little buying opportunity last year???
Or just short the market according to Forester's predictions. Apparently we are on the cusp of 50% collapse.
That's gotta work, right?
atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:53 am
It has been a slow bleed over the last couple of weeks. No real "crash" or anything like that, but we seem to be opening in the green nearly every day and sell off mid-morning. Oh well, at least my 401k buy won't go through at an ATH on Friday.
"Follow the Fed" has been the operative mantra since 2009, and it has paid off. If you're still following that mantra, then you have to expect that the unwind will unwind a good portion of the gains in the market.
Stock market has gone up massively in a short period of time on TINA's back.
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 am
if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money"
I you could do that, you would have already won. Remember the little buying opportunity last year???
Or just short the market according to Forester's predictions. Apparently we are on the cusp of 50% collapse.
That's gotta work, right?
I don't agree with Forester's prediction.
You don't? Why not??? He's got CHARTS!
What predictions do you believe, and what makes them different from his?
anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:51 am
if I time the market successfully, I can take advantage of "free money"
I you could do that, you would have already won. Remember the little buying opportunity last year???
Or just short the market according to Forester's predictions. Apparently we are on the cusp of 50% collapse.
That's gotta work, right?
I don't agree with Forester's prediction.
You don't? Why not??? He's got CHARTS!
What predictions do you believe, and what makes them different from his?
As long as the fed is accommodating no crash. The next big leg up needs the stimulus bill to pass. Otherwise it's going to be sideways to slightly up until fed tapers or raises rates.
atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 10:53 am
It has been a slow bleed over the last couple of weeks. No real "crash" or anything like that, but we seem to be opening in the green nearly every day and sell off mid-morning. Oh well, at least my 401k buy won't go through at an ATH on Friday.
Part of this is because Nikkei's been very strong (they have an LDP election coming up, the winner is effectively their next PM), and Nikkei impacting SPX futures and US premarket trading.
rchmx1 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:05 pm
...The future has always been impossible to predict. That is a fundamental aspect of the future.
This is not really true. Some aspects of the future are easy to predict.
For instance, it is possible to predict the number of students who will enter high school in 2031 with great accuracy. Why? Because every single child who will enter high school then is alive today. Count them up and make some corrections for deaths, immigration, etc., and it is an easy prediction.
Other parts of the future are harder to predict...
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.