stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:09 pm
what exactly happened? I checked this morning and the market wasn't soaring, then suddenly soaring when I checked now. Did Powell do a dance?
Dogecoin declining, money moving from dog money into stocks
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
It looks like the fed is saying that asset prices are vulnerable to a drop, but they are standing by with tools so that if it does they will make sure that it rebounds swiftly.
Last edited by anoop on Thu May 06, 2021 3:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:09 pm
what exactly happened? I checked this morning and the market wasn't soaring, then suddenly soaring when I checked now. Did Powell do a dance?
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:09 pm
what exactly happened? I checked this morning and the market wasn't soaring, then suddenly soaring when I checked now. Did Powell do a dance?
you snooze, you lose!
I was actually quite happy with what I woke up to after my nap!
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:09 pm
what exactly happened? I checked this morning and the market wasn't soaring, then suddenly soaring when I checked now. Did Powell do a dance?
I figured Forester make another doom and gloom prediction, but I can't seem to find it.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:09 pm
what exactly happened? I checked this morning and the market wasn't soaring, then suddenly soaring when I checked now. Did Powell do a dance?
I figured Forester make another doom and gloom prediction, but I can't seem to find it.
Q: What would happen if Doom&Gloom made a forester prediction?
A: Lumber futures would close limit down three days in a row.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 3:09 pm
what exactly happened? I checked this morning and the market wasn't soaring, then suddenly soaring when I checked now. Did Powell do a dance?
I figured Forester make another doom and gloom prediction, but I can't seem to find it.
Q: What would happen if Doom&Gloom made a forester prediction?
A: Lumber futures would close limit down three days in a row.
From that statement: "Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising."
“The real story here is the tension -- if not the glaring contradiction -- of the Fed’s pursuit of quantitative easing, the aim of which is to lower long-term rates and encourage reach for yield, and their concern that people are indeed reaching for yield,” said George Selgin, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, referring to the bond buying. “The Fed could certainly taper its QE activities to counter this risk-taking as the recovery continues.” link
From that statement: "Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising."
“The real story here is the tension -- if not the glaring contradiction -- of the Fed’s pursuit of quantitative easing, the aim of which is to lower long-term rates and encourage reach for yield, and their concern that people are indeed reaching for yield,” said George Selgin, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, referring to the bond buying. “The Fed could certainly taper its QE activities to counter this risk-taking as the recovery continues.” link
The problem is that if they taper they will crash the market. They cannot afford to do that until things get a bit more settled with respect to rents, mortgage forbearance, employment levels, etc. My guess this is they are most concerned about commodity prices because that is either going to lead to really bad shortages down the line or price increases or even a combination of both.
From that statement: "Vulnerabilities associated with elevated risk appetite are rising."
“The real story here is the tension -- if not the glaring contradiction -- of the Fed’s pursuit of quantitative easing, the aim of which is to lower long-term rates and encourage reach for yield, and their concern that people are indeed reaching for yield,” said George Selgin, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington, referring to the bond buying. “The Fed could certainly taper its QE activities to counter this risk-taking as the recovery continues.” link
The problem is that if they taper they will crash the market. They cannot afford to do that until things get a bit more settled with respect to rents, mortgage forbearance, employment levels, etc. My guess this is they are most concerned about commodity prices because that is either going to lead to really bad shortages down the line or price increases or even a combination of both.
"the 'meme stock' episode" How interesting to see them name it directly. For my money, they are going to keep running the engine at flank speed even if it starts to overheat, for at least the remainder of this year and probably well into 2022.
If my rebalancing band is reached, I will sell equity ETFs and buy bond funds. Rinse, repeat. If equities swoon enough to require rebalancing, I will sell bond funds and buy equity ETFs. Rinse, repeat.
'
I have no idea what will happen, but I am prepared to act as needed.
No brainer, IMHO, assuming one has a plan. Now might be a good time for those who have no plan to develop one. That way emotions won't be driving the efforts.
Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go." - Mark Twain
It looks like the fed is saying that asset prices are vulnerable to a drop, but they are standing by with tools so that if it does they will make sure that it rebounds swiftly.
Ooooooooh. They said "Countercyclical Capital Buffer". That means they think banks are overextended and about to screw things up again.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Somehow I thought this was Friday and I wouldn't care about the market again until Monday, but my husband won't take me to our beach party, there is no paycheck in the checking account and my credit card hasn't actually closed so that I can pay set up the next payment... So one more day. Are futures pointing in the right direction or will there be another reversal?
It looks like the fed is saying that asset prices are vulnerable to a drop, but they are standing by with tools so that if it does they will make sure that it rebounds swiftly.
Ooooooooh. They said "Countercyclical Capital Buffer". That means they think banks are overextended and about to screw things up again.
If that’s the case, I’d say it’s big time bullish!
Tamalak wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 9:10 am
What a horrible reason to go up.. the stock market would prefer to remain sick because the medicine tastes good
I might posit that the more dangerous disease is unemployment and a deflation, or at least allow that it could be. If that is the case, then low interest rates are part of the medicine.
Still waiting for Dow 36,000 so we can celebrate the prescient book of the same name.
Tamalak wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 9:10 am
What a horrible reason to go up..
There is too much money in the system and that's inflationary, stocks have to go up as well... but the question is, are we going up in REAL terms? Now, that is debatable.
atdharris wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 8:27 am
A terrible jobs report means that stocks should soar today.
Not that I'm complaining but why???
The Fed would be more likely to keep interest rates low longer.
What a horrible reason to go up.. the stock market would prefer to remain sick because the medicine tastes good
I hope inflation doesn't bubble up in a surprising way that would be enough to force the Fed's hand to make a sudden withdrawal of that medicine, if the market is such a junkie for it.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 9:37 am
...I hope inflation doesn't bubble up in a surprising way that would be enough to force the Fed's hand to make a sudden withdrawal of that medicine, if the market is such a junkie for it.
I don't think that is going to happen. For thousands of years governments have recognized that inflation is the debtor's friend, and most governments are debtors.
Even the ancient Romans had government sponsored inflation. They called it "debasing the currency" and it involved making coins with less gold and more copper in the alloy -- this is because the printing press was yet to be invented.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.