U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Current Shiller PE Ratio: 39.14 +0.26 (0.66%)
Not far from its all-time high in, uh, 2001.
Bubble? What bubble?
Not far from its all-time high in, uh, 2001.
Bubble? What bubble?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, this is a lot more fun than last month
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I hope to NOT report a "taper in progress" today.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe.anon_investor wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 amMay is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Maybe, maybe not. Large-cap growth has been on a tear for a long time now, and it could continue that trend for a while to come. Since 2013, Vanguard's VUG has had 3% higher annualized returns than TSM in addition to a smaller maximum drawdown.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
The Sensible Steward
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes. Here’s the quote from Oct 7. On that date, S&P closed at 4399.76, Nasdaq at 14,654.02. We’re definitely up since then.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 amIt's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe.anon_investor wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 amMay is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Last edited by Stinky on Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I just mortgaged my house in order to go all in on the S&P. Also doing leverage, 2X, to get super rich. Already emptied bank accounts.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I have a large amount of IRA rollover cash to invest and I watched the september dip come and go. I'm honestly a little resentful that all the BS the talking heads cite on down days all of a sudden doesn't seem to matter just a couple weeks later.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Don't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction postsTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 amIt's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe.anon_investor wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 amMay is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=257573&p=6263309#p6263309Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 amIt's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe.anon_investor wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 amMay is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Forester's prognostications are a gift to all our portfolios! He is at #62 in the Boglehead Contest.
Ipsa scientia potestas est. Bacon F.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
When you've been at this a while, you will learn that the news follows events of the day. Have a few down days, and they'll trot out the "bear market" articles they have cued up.
It's a racket. Turn off the news. The worst thing you can do is watch it.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
LOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!
Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Are you being serious or joking?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 amLOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!
Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Kidding. Wouldn't it be fun if I weren't, though?lostdog wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:44 amAre you being serious or joking?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 amLOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!
Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.
"I remember knowing it was the top when this guy said he mortgage his and his mom's house to put in the market!"
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, interest rates are low. The leveraged funds might be risky business, but who knows!namajones wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 amLOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!
Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
namajones wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:45 amKidding. Wouldn't it be fun if I weren't, though?lostdog wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:44 amAre you being serious or joking?namajones wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 amLOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!
Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.
"I remember knowing it was the top when this guy said he mortgage his and his mom's house to put in the market!"
Thought you were kidding.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, hopefully you've learned a valuable lesson. The talking heads don't know enough. Pundits on the Internet don't know enough. The posters here (including myself) don't know enough.
No one can predict the market.
Pick an Asset Allocation that you can hold through a 50% crash that starts tomorrow and takes 5+ years to recover.
Because it might.
A crash is always coming. But none of us know when. But if you pick an AA that you can hold through the next crash, then you no longer have to worry about or predict the next crash.
If you're young, this still may be an aggressive AA like 90/10, because you have plenty of time to wait for the stock market to crash and come back. You still need an emergency fund if you lose your job, but you don't have to worry about your retirement accounts. You might still have 20+ years before you need to access those.
If you're older and closer to retirement, you might want a more conservative AA like 60/40 or 50/50, because you might need to pull money from your accounts during the next crash, so you want a lot in safer assets to pull from while you wait for the stock side to recover.
But the point is to pick an AA that you can hold through the next crash. Because one is coming. Maybe even tomorrow.
But with the right AA, you no longer have to worry about it.
It's like always carrying around an umbrella, and then someone comes in here yelling "Hey CAPE is super high! The chance of rain is higher today than yesterday!" and you can just shrug, because you already have an umbrella.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Make that 90 or 100% crash.
We need to put the "50% crash" thing to bed. There's no hard stop at 50% or any other percentage.
"But after 50% the world as we know it will end!"
"No, it won't."
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Thanks for the reminder. I tried picking stocks for a while, had solid information and those stocks are now doing well but with a lot of volatility. I still managed to lose money on them. I'm coming back to passive investing because the hype around investing just isn't for me. It's still very hard knowing people are getting rich quickly while I am not.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
There are also people getting poor very quickly while you are not. Those people are just less likely to share their stories.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, if you're not using margin loans, leveraging, etc - the hard stop should be at 100%.
I think planning or expecting a 90-100% crash is a bit overzealous like people who want to protect against US hyperinflation b/c they read someone's "article" on ____ website.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
50% is a solid starting point based on recent history. I have never said 50% is a hard stop. The point is that the stock side can crash at any time, and take a long time to recover. Plan your AA around how much you need in bonds/cash in case there is a prolonged crash that keeps you from accessing the stock side for multiple years.
The danger isn't a 90% crash... The real danger is how long it takes to recover. Usually it is 1-3 years, but 5-15 is certainly possible.
And yes, there is an implicit assumption here that the market will recover in our remaining lifetime, and not go to zero.
Your 100% crash scenario is technically possible, but all bets are off at that point, so I'm not planning around it. Assuming government bonds/cash are still valuable, I'll have enough for food and hopefully utilities in my paid-off-house. If even cash/government bonds become worthless, we will all be working to survive. I'll deal with that if it happens.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
party over for the soaring.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
awaiting Forester's latest predictions
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Whew! I was putting on my scold hat…GoldenFinch wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:48 amnamajones wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:45 amKidding. Wouldn't it be fun if I weren't, though?
"I remember knowing it was the top when this guy said he mortgage his and his mom's house to put in the market!"
Thought you were kidding.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Okay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 amDon't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction postsTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 amIt's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe.anon_investor wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 amMay is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
In all seriousness, there are more than a few posters on it with mortgage (hopefully at sub 2% range) and invested in 3x leveraged ETF (hopefully with a rebalance strategy and a good exit plan).
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, he doesTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pmOkay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 amDon't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction postsTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 amIt's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe.anon_investor wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 amMay is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Lostdog must've been working hard today.pasadena wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:14 pmWell, he doesTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pmOkay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 amDon't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction postsTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 amIt's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe.anon_investor wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding...
Last edited by jarjarM on Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Great plannamajones wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:55 pmMy exit plan is to sell at the top.
- dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Listening to the talking heads and then timing the market based upon that drivel... off to the flogging station with you!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Wish I thought of that.namajones wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:55 pmMy exit plan is to sell at the top.
We plan. G-d laughs.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I have seeds buried 100 feet underground for that scenario.HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:08 am50% is a solid starting point based on recent history. I have never said 50% is a hard stop. The point is that the stock side can crash at any time, and take a long time to recover. Plan your AA around how much you need in bonds/cash in case there is a prolonged crash that keeps you from accessing the stock side for multiple years.
The danger isn't a 90% crash... The real danger is how long it takes to recover. Usually it is 1-3 years, but 5-15 is certainly possible.
And yes, there is an implicit assumption here that the market will recover in our remaining lifetime, and not go to zero.
Your 100% crash scenario is technically possible, but all bets are off at that point, so I'm not planning around it. Assuming government bonds/cash are still valuable, I'll have enough for food and hopefully utilities in my paid-off-house. If even cash/government bonds become worthless, we will all be working to survive. I'll deal with that if it happens.
Make sure you check out my list of certifications. The list is short, and there aren't any. - Eric 0. from SMA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah, we could use a little juice in this stock market!
Make sure you check out my list of certifications. The list is short, and there aren't any. - Eric 0. from SMA
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I went late this afternoon.jarjarM wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:44 pmLostdog must've been working hard today.pasadena wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:14 pmWell, he doesTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pmOkay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 amDon't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction postsTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 am
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
AMD and Google did well but both are down after hours.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, that explains what happened in the last 15min of the market.lostdog wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:44 pmI went late this afternoon.jarjarM wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:44 pmLostdog must've been working hard today.pasadena wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:14 pmWell, he doesTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pmOkay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Adding to the looooong list of wrong predictions, today's S&P closed at 4,575.
Even after moving the goal posts, wrong. Again.
It's like an artist that paints entire canvasses black. The first time or two, one thinks OK, this is a point of view. But then after that, one realizes that the artist isn't really saying anything of merit, and isn't contributing anything.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It doesn't even make sense to multiply S&P500 by inflation. There's nothing to say S&P has to trade exactly by inflation. There's no such thing as "a true new high."LookingForward wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:19 pmAdding to the looooong list of wrong predictions, today's S&P closed at 4,575.
Even after moving the goal posts, wrong. Again.
It's like an artist that paints entire canvasses black. The first time or two, one thinks OK, this is a point of view. But then after that, one realizes that the artist isn't really saying anything of merit, and isn't contributing anything.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
There will be companies that after expenses don't make enough to provide their owners a real return after taxes. This happened in the past. This can happen again. What's different now is that I can't buy bonds with a real yield. I do hope at some point I can buy a 30 year treasury bond with a double digit rate. Then, I can sell all of my equities and live off of that for the rest of my life.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:30 pmIt doesn't even make sense to multiply S&P500 by inflation. There's nothing to say S&P has to trade exactly by inflation. There's no such thing as "a true new high."LookingForward wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:19 pmAdding to the looooong list of wrong predictions, today's S&P closed at 4,575.
Even after moving the goal posts, wrong. Again.
It's like an artist that paints entire canvasses black. The first time or two, one thinks OK, this is a point of view. But then after that, one realizes that the artist isn't really saying anything of merit, and isn't contributing anything.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think we have to wait for tapering to see how the yields move. I don't comprehend what the bondholders are doing, they're somehow still betting that inflation will come down.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:42 pm There will be companies that after expenses don't make enough to provide their owners a real return after taxes. This happened in the past. This can happen again. What's different now is that I can't buy bonds with a real yield. I do hope at some point I can buy a 30 year treasury bond with a double digit rate. Then, I can sell all of my equities and live off of that for the rest of my life.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah, kind of silly what he's trying to do. Over time the dividends play a role too so to be accurate he should be factoring in prorated dividends. Seems pointless and unproductive regardless.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:30 pmIt doesn't even make sense to multiply S&P500 by inflation. There's nothing to say S&P has to trade exactly by inflation. There's no such thing as "a true new high."LookingForward wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:19 pmAdding to the looooong list of wrong predictions, today's S&P closed at 4,575.
Even after moving the goal posts, wrong. Again.
It's like an artist that paints entire canvasses black. The first time or two, one thinks OK, this is a point of view. But then after that, one realizes that the artist isn't really saying anything of merit, and isn't contributing anything.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Both the 5 and 10 year TIPS are predicting inflation near 2.5% for those time frames. Treasury bond yields aren't close.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:52 pmI think we have to wait for tapering to see how the yields move. I don't comprehend what the bondholders are doing, they're somehow still betting that inflation will come down.rockstar wrote: ↑Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:42 pm There will be companies that after expenses don't make enough to provide their owners a real return after taxes. This happened in the past. This can happen again. What's different now is that I can't buy bonds with a real yield. I do hope at some point I can buy a 30 year treasury bond with a double digit rate. Then, I can sell all of my equities and live off of that for the rest of my life.
No idea when inflation will come down. I can only act on what it is today.