U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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jason2459
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

livesoft wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
e5116 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:06 pm I keep waiting for a pullback and it never happens.
Here is what the pullback looked like in 2021 in a Morningstar chart:

Image

You must have slept through it because it happened.
Oh nice. I like mtum.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by e5116 »

livesoft wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:16 pm
e5116 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:06 pm I keep waiting for a pullback and it never happens.
Here is what the pullback looked like in 2021 in a Morningstar chart:

Image

You must have slept through it because it happened.
Bahahaha. Yes, the MTUM/QQQ trains have been quite interesting. And, yes, I probably have slept through some of them. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by livesoft »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:21 pmLivesoft endorsing the MTUM, today is a momentous day indeed.
I am not endorsing buying MTUM today. If one owns it and needs to rebalance out of equities, then selling it today would be something to consider.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

SSO and megacorp stock are having a race, although I don't know if megacorp can win given megacorp is a top holding of SSO.

But it's closer (~20 bps) than I would have thought.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

lostdog wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:14 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 10:06 am Making $10k a day in my portfolio is getting old real fast.
Remember last March when we couldn't handle seeing the dread, end of world and sell comments in the free fall thread? You and I both had to move over to the Calm thread.

We're getting rewarded for holding last March. I'll take it. :beer
This exactly how it’s supposed to work. You take the risk when everyone is running for the hills, you reap the rewards. There’s about there’s a pretty respectable bump my portfolio from the rebalancing band triggers in March/April... a thing of beauty. Never thought it would come back to ATHs this soon...

It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bogledogle »

I knew this thread was going to pop u on the front page today.. lol
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

LTT (VGLT) up substantially more than VTI.

I hate that.

I don't like it when they're both green.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:43 pm It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
No joke! If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:58 pm LTT (VGLT) up substantially more than VTI.
Yields taking a disconcerting dive! Why? Well, according to Bloomberg: "Traders suggested international concerns may have helped fuel the rally in Treasuries, with many investors caught positioned for higher yields."

Gold is rallying as well +1.77%, and gold miner etf RING is +4.72%.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

rchmx1 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:43 pm It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
No joke! If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
Nah, 2020 was elementary school.

The crash wasn't that deep and the rebound was super quick.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:16 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:58 pm LTT (VGLT) up substantially more than VTI.
Yields taking a disconcerting dive! Why? Well, according to Bloomberg: "Traders suggested international concerns may have helped fuel the rally in Treasuries, with many investors caught positioned for higher yields."
There may be some truth to that.

My USDU holding is up today, too.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:17 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:43 pm It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
No joke! If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
Nah, 2020 was elementary school.

The crash wasn't that deep and the rebound was super quick.
It wasn’t evident this was the case in March, emotions were palpable on here. Also other corrections were kindergarten in a different sense: the bleed was slow, in 2020 folks saw 35% of their portfolios vaporized in weeks — very jarring for many. However, this too followed history, foreshadowing the recovery: the quicker the downturn, the quicker the recovery... knowing this (I’m a financial history junkie) actually gave me confidence to rebalance last year as my rebalance bands hit.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FIREchief »

VTI is now up 11.6% on the year. :oops: 8-) :beer

Kind of takes the "sting" out of the slightly negative real returns my TIPS are paying. :P (I'm 100% US TMI and TIPS)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:31 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:17 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:43 pm It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
No joke! If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
Nah, 2020 was elementary school.

The crash wasn't that deep and the rebound was super quick.
It wasn’t evident this was the case in March, emotions were palpable on here. Also other corrections were kindergarten in a different sense: the bleed was slow, in 2020 folks saw 35% of their portfolios vaporized in weeks — very jarring for many. However, this too followed history, foreshadowing the recovery: the quicker the downturn, the quicker the recovery... knowing this (I’m a financial history junkie) actually gave me confidence to rebalance last year as my rebalance bands hit.
2008-2009 was much worse.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:17 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:43 pm It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
No joke! If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
Nah, 2020 was elementary school.

The crash wasn't that deep and the rebound was super quick.
Right but you don’t know when the rebound is coming. Thats the rub.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:51 pm
Right but you don’t know when the rebound is coming. Thats the rub.
In 2020 we weren't worried about the collapse of the entire financial system.

Banks weren't failing and causing contagion.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:54 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:51 pm
Right but you don’t know when the rebound is coming. Thats the rub.
In 2020 we weren't worried about the collapse of the entire financial system.

Banks weren't failing and causing contagion.
The range of negative outcomes was way worse in 2020, go look at some of the threads, folks were saying this might be the end of modern civilization - half the population could be wiped out etc. 2008 was about money and debt.... that you can fix/mute this with policy. If half the population of the planet is wiped out, there is no amount of Fed intervention which would help.

You either had faith we would figure this out, or you went to a really dark place.

Back on topic: Earnings season is my favorite season. Fantastic day so far, but feels like a meltdown kinda day at the end, so not expecting this to hold completely.
Last edited by mrspock on Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:06 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:54 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:51 pm
Right but you don’t know when the rebound is coming. Thats the rub.
In 2020 we weren't worried about the collapse of the entire financial system.

Banks weren't failing and causing contagion.
I agree but in 2008-2009 we weren’t facing a virus that we didn’t understand and that was shutting down economies, schools etc. We had no idea we’d have a vaccine so fast.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:02 pm
The range of negative outcomes was way worse in 2020, go look at some of the threads, folks were saying this might be the end of modern civilization - half the population could be wiped out etc. 2008 was about money and debt.... that you can fix/mute this with policy. If half the population of the planet is wiped out, there is no amount of Fed intervention which would help.

You either had faith we would figure this out, or you went to a really dark place.
I could swear that's a plot from a recent movie. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:36 pm Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
Are you at the gym today?

If not, please go now. We need a melt up!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:13 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:36 pm Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
Are you at the gym today?

If not, please go now. We need a melt up!
+0.94% isn't enough? :shock:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:15 pm
Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:13 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:36 pm Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
Are you at the gym today?

If not, please go now. We need a melt up!
+0.94% isn't enough? :shock:
Down to .86%!!!

Run faster!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Forester wrote: Mon Dec 28, 2020 7:45 pm
Forester wrote: Sun Dec 27, 2020 9:16 pm I'm calling the Bitcoin high, $28k and change was the top. This makes a stock market correction of around 10% quite likely in Jan/Feb.
Early days but looking increasingly like I correctly nailed the Bitcoin top. I remain bearish on the big tech stocks, equal weight S&P 500 ($RSP) will 100% out-perform the Nasdaq next year.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Shalom Aleichem »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:49 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:31 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:17 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:43 pm It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
No joke! If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
Nah, 2020 was elementary school.

The crash wasn't that deep and the rebound was super quick.
It wasn’t evident this was the case in March, emotions were palpable on here. Also other corrections were kindergarten in a different sense: the bleed was slow, in 2020 folks saw 35% of their portfolios vaporized in weeks — very jarring for many. However, this too followed history, foreshadowing the recovery: the quicker the downturn, the quicker the recovery... knowing this (I’m a financial history junkie) actually gave me confidence to rebalance last year as my rebalance bands hit.
2008-2009 was much worse.
True. I would argue also - one reason I felt comfortable staying in - was that the recession was caused by what should prove to be a self-limited problem - The government shut down the economy. To my mind - not the place for a discussion about the virus - I thought the virus would prove to be deadly to a relatively small group of at-risk people (the very young, the very old, and the very ill) and the economy would turn on as soon as the government decided to turn it on. In contrast in 2008 financial institutions had been lending probably trillions of dollars to people who had no way of paying back these home loans and so poof - in a few months trillions of dollars just disappeared from the economy. That is a structural problem. In either case, to my mind stocks are for money you don't need for at least 10-20y so as I'm still a ways away from retirement I was and continue to be nearly 100% in stocks.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

lazynovice wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:04 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:54 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:51 pm
Right but you don’t know when the rebound is coming. Thats the rub.
In 2020 we weren't worried about the collapse of the entire financial system.

Banks weren't failing and causing contagion.
I agree but in 2008-2009 we weren’t facing a virus that we didn’t understand and that was shutting down economies, schools etc. We had no idea we’d have a vaccine so fast.
Well emotions are subjective and we won't ever have way to normalize how things felt to different people.

But in terms of market draw downs, 2008-2009 was far worse. Over twice as bad.

March, 2020: -21%
Feb, 2009: -51%

Early 2000s were also deeper and longer.

If you look at the draw downs tab, you'll see 2020 is relatively mild compared to the 'big ones' of the last 20 years:

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion1_1=100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Generally you subtract 1 from that.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

:sharebeer
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Thats what Im talkin about!!

:sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Oh with leverage we can get 2x or 3x!

20,000% a year!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:22 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Generally you subtract 1 from that.
But that won't be as a big of a number :P
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:22 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Generally you subtract 1 from that.
But that won't be as a big of a number :P
I'm a party pooper. Also, 10.4 is 1040%.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:28 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:22 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Generally you subtract 1 from that.
But that won't be as a big of a number :P
I'm a party pooper. Also, 10.4 is 1040%.
Correct, 1,040%.

I'll still take it, party pooper!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:28 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:22 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:52 pm Can someone post the annualized gain for today?
You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Generally you subtract 1 from that.
But that won't be as a big of a number :P
I'm a party pooper. Also, 10.4 is 1040%.
Oh fine, 10.4x is such a downer :(
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:34 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:28 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:22 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:20 pm

You mean just annualize today's gain? 1.0097^252 = 11.4 or 11,400%. :beer
Generally you subtract 1 from that.
But that won't be as a big of a number :P
I'm a party pooper. Also, 10.4 is 1040%.
Correct, 1,040%.

I'll still take it, party pooper!
Yeah, 1040% is alright but we want to time the market to go even higher.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Looks like a little bit of a melt up coming. :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:40 pm Looks like a little bit of a melt up coming. :sharebeer
lostdog is working hard in the gym :beer
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Post by Geronkas »

We melting up boys and gals!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

I removed an off-topic post discussing the coronavirus and viruses in general. As a reminder, the main intent of the post must be on-topic.

Also see: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
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Post by Vtsax100 »

Melt up is started. Lost dog is pumping iron hard at the gym!

:moneybag :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:55 pm Melt up is started. Lost dog is pumping iron hard at the gym!

:moneybag :moneybag
Yup, he definitely work harder than yesterday :mrgreen:
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Post by Triple digit golfer »

Lostdog is squatting 5 plates for reps lately.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Quite a day today! Big shout outs to:

-- retail sales crushing consensus (9.8% vs 5.6%)
-- jobless claims coming in lower than consensus (576 K vs 695 K)
-- lostdog pumping iron at the gym
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:17 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:43 pm It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
No joke! If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
Nah, 2020 was elementary school.

The crash wasn't that deep and the rebound was super quick.
I meant just in terms of how many lessons were taught as opposed to how loud and long the teacher shouted them at us. lol
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Pretty sure my portfolio added at least a cool $500 today!!! :sharebeer :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
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quadog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by quadog »

I love it when U.S. stocks are soaring. My brokerage account hit an all time high today. I never want this feeling to end.
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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:31 pm
watchnerd wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:17 pm
rchmx1 wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 1:14 pm
mrspock wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 12:43 pm It was interesting to see many of the things I read about in the Boglehead reading list play out in real-time over the last year. E.g. panic/doubt/fear, market timing the high, but then being unable to time the bottom (or even back to even — under performing buy n holders), FOMO, bond valuations, you name it.
No joke! If any of this stuff was still theoretical to you previously, 2020 was a master class it making it tangible and proving how well-founded all of this is.
Nah, 2020 was elementary school.

The crash wasn't that deep and the rebound was super quick.
It wasn’t evident this was the case in March, emotions were palpable on here. Also other corrections were kindergarten in a different sense: the bleed was slow, in 2020 folks saw 35% of their portfolios vaporized in weeks — very jarring for many.
Agree. The "world was ending" in March. :oops:
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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

TheTimeLord wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 4:04 pm Pretty sure my portfolio added at least a cool $500 today!!! :sharebeer :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
Yeah, I think I'm up a buck! Makin' money...
Make sure you check out my list of certifications. The list is short, and there aren't any. - Eric 0. from SMA
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 15, 2021 2:13 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:36 pm Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
Are you at the gym today?

If not, please go now. We need a melt up!
Just got back. Looks like it was steady with a small melt up. :beer

Yeah worked hard today.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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Tim_in_GA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tim_in_GA »

I love seeing my portfolio gain way more than my monthly salary in one day. :moneybag
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