U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The market keeps trying to crash but it doesn't even stick for a week. I wonder if something's broken.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Attention Attention. We are in the midst of a Friday Melt-Up sitiation.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Attention Attention. We are in the midst of a Friday Melt-Up sitiation.
- dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
One person's "risky" is another person's gold mine.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:55 am Stocks are risky regardless of where you invest. We should keep that in mind. For a US investor this decade it seems they only go up, but countless periods where US markets seemed very risky
Make sure you check out my list of certifications. The list is short, and there aren't any. - Eric 0. from SMA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Definitely at risk here today.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:23 pm S&P 500 does not close above 4400 this year. Discuss.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So. Much. Soaring.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
lostdog's mojo is back!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
A Melt-Up can not come this early in the day. Must wait for the last 15 minutes.
OTOH, a good old-fashioned rally can came at any point in the day...
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Hopefully NOT a taper down in the making.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Next week tech earnings...Rally or sell off?
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yellen sent the debt limit letter to Congress. Says limit is going to be hit August 1. Let’s see how the market reacts.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Its just a formality these days. Everyone will do their posturing, then it will get increased.lazynovice wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 am Yellen sent the debt limit letter to Congress. Says limit is going to be hit August 1. Let’s see how the market reacts.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah. We've seen this before. Meaningless.Vtsax100 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:58 amIts just a formality these days. Everyone will do their posturing, then it will get increased.lazynovice wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 am Yellen sent the debt limit letter to Congress. Says limit is going to be hit August 1. Let’s see how the market reacts.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Headline writers need their clicks!tsohg wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:00 pmYeah. We've seen this before. Meaningless.Vtsax100 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:58 amIts just a formality these days. Everyone will do their posturing, then it will get increased.lazynovice wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 am Yellen sent the debt limit letter to Congress. Says limit is going to be hit August 1. Let’s see how the market reacts.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Loaded more appl on its red day this week. Have been buying since it was 121.. hope for soaring at earnings..lets see
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Or the companies are making trillions of dollars a year and so stocks go up most of the time.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I hold some TQQQs and hoping for the same
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Late day melt up in progress.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
And my 401k was sold yesterday to move to my IRA. I’m crying like a baby.
- xraygoggles
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Tqqq, Tqqq leaps, Apple, Amazon, Amazon leaps. I got it all, baby.
Simplicity is the key to brilliance - Vti & chill.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Turned out to be a mini melt.
Or maybe a patty melt.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yay, VXUS! You did it!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You still have 5 months and a week, LadyGeek!LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Aawww, Livesoft
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Boglehead Nation would like nothing more than having our beloved LadyGeek win the 2021 Boglehead contest.LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Boglehead Nation would also like to see continued soaring during 2021. And LadyGeek’s prediction of 4428.16 for 12/31/21 closing value leaves precious little room for additional soaring.
So ——- Boglehead Nation, which will it be? LadyGeek winning, or continued soaring?
Maybe we could take a poll.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I logged into Vanguard today intending to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% where it is now down to 25%. I thought about it for a while, and decided not to. I feel a crash is inevitable. But my reasoning is, if I let that 10% ride longer, the gain from it will be more than the loss later.
I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
I'd be interested to see what people think about that.
I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
- Consider an account with 1 million with 40% invested in VTI (total stock etf) and 60% in short term bonds and cash.
- Six months pass then a 35% correction occurs. Assume the market behaves like it has lately between now and that correction.
- Would the account balance right after the correction be higher if the 40% were maintained, versus what the balance would be if I had taken the percent of stock in VTI down to 25% today?
I'd be interested to see what people think about that.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
As much as I would love to see LadyGeek win anything, on this one I'd rather motorcyclesarecool won this yearStinky wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:40 pmBoglehead Nation would like nothing more than having our beloved LadyGeek win the 2021 Boglehead contest.LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Boglehead Nation would also like to see continued soaring during 2021. And LadyGeek’s prediction of 4428.16 for 12/31/21 closing value leaves precious little room for additional soaring.
So ——- Boglehead Nation, which will it be? LadyGeek winning, or continued soaring?
Maybe we could take a poll.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
quietstorm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:51 pm I logged into Vanguard today intending to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% where it is now down to 25%. I thought about it for a while, and decided not to. I feel a crash is inevitable. But my reasoning is, if I let that 10% ride longer, the gain from it will be more than the loss later.
I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
- Consider an account with 1 million with 40% invested in VTI (total stock etf) and 60% in short term bonds and cash.
- Six months pass then a 35% correction occurs. Assume the market behaves like it has lately between now and that correction.
- Would the account balance right after the correction be higher if the 40% were maintained, versus what the balance would be if I had taken the percent of stock in VTI down to 25% today?
I'd be interested to see what people think about that.
Are you retired?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well... depends? First, you're seriously market timing here. If you think like this, you never sell until it's too late. Mathematically, the question is, how much would stocks need to rise in six month for a 35% crash to bring the portfolio back to what it's worth today?quietstorm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:51 pm I logged into Vanguard today intending to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% where it is now down to 25%. I thought about it for a while, and decided not to. I feel a crash is inevitable. But my reasoning is, if I let that 10% ride longer, the gain from it will be more than the loss later.
I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
- Consider an account with 1 million with 40% invested in VTI (total stock etf) and 60% in short term bonds and cash.
- Six months pass then a 35% correction occurs. Assume the market behaves like it has lately between now and that correction.
- Would the account balance right after the correction be higher if the 40% were maintained, versus what the balance would be if I had taken the percent of stock in VTI down to 25% today?
I'd be interested to see what people think about that.
Here's your two portfolios from Nov 2019 to April 2020 (had to find something with a big crash at the end of 6 months): Portfolio Backtest
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If we get a 35% correction in 6 months, you will almost certainly lose more than you gain in the next 6 months. We would have to see a 50% rise in the next 6 months for this to work.quietstorm wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:51 pm I logged into Vanguard today intending to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% where it is now down to 25%. I thought about it for a while, and decided not to. I feel a crash is inevitable. But my reasoning is, if I let that 10% ride longer, the gain from it will be more than the loss later.
I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
- Consider an account with 1 million with 40% invested in VTI (total stock etf) and 60% in short term bonds and cash.
- Six months pass then a 35% correction occurs. Assume the market behaves like it has lately between now and that correction.
- Would the account balance right after the correction be higher if the 40% were maintained, versus what the balance would be if I had taken the percent of stock in VTI down to 25% today?
I'd be interested to see what people think about that.
Not very likely.
If this is long-term money, you can just let it ride through the next crash and not worry about it.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
+1pasadena wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pmAs much as I would love to see LadyGeek win anything, on this one I'd rather motorcyclesarecool won this yearStinky wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:40 pmBoglehead Nation would like nothing more than having our beloved LadyGeek win the 2021 Boglehead contest.LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Boglehead Nation would also like to see continued soaring during 2021. And LadyGeek’s prediction of 4428.16 for 12/31/21 closing value leaves precious little room for additional soaring.
So ——- Boglehead Nation, which will it be? LadyGeek winning, or continued soaring?
Maybe we could take a poll.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah, back to NW ATH (The last one was on 7/12. If I exclude the additional savings I did since then, I'm juuuuust above), and my first Roth IRA just crossed $60k for the first (hopefully last) time.
Enjoy the week-end everyone!
Enjoy the week-end everyone!
Last edited by pasadena on Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If this isn't a bubble, in 5-10 years you will have had 5-10 years of being sure we are in a bubble...Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pmI'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble.
If this IS a bubble, in 5-10 years we may have recovered from the crash and already be on to new heights.
Last edited by HomerJ on Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No harm in celebrating the small milestones on the wayRobot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pmI'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I have nothing against Ladygeek, but I want Forester to win. There would be some sweet irony to it, especially considering it's significantly higher.jarjarM wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:43 pm+1pasadena wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pmAs much as I would love to see LadyGeek win anything, on this one I'd rather motorcyclesarecool won this yearStinky wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:40 pmBoglehead Nation would like nothing more than having our beloved LadyGeek win the 2021 Boglehead contest.LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Boglehead Nation would also like to see continued soaring during 2021. And LadyGeek’s prediction of 4428.16 for 12/31/21 closing value leaves precious little room for additional soaring.
So ——- Boglehead Nation, which will it be? LadyGeek winning, or continued soaring?
Maybe we could take a poll.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I’m # 2 !!!LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Last edited by Nicolas on Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
^^^
A good investor removes emotion from the decision. Go by the numbers, it won't bother me. No, not in the least.
A good investor removes emotion from the decision. Go by the numbers, it won't bother me. No, not in the least.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Let's hope you won't be #2 for long More soaringNicolas wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:45 pmI’m #2 !!!LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I’m with you! I don’t want to win now!!jarjarM wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:46 pmLet's hope you won't be #2 for long More soaringNicolas wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:45 pmI’m #2 !!!LadyGeek wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 I have to look at that all weekend.
As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Amazing that only two months ago I was amusing myself seeing my total portfolio value bounce just above and below the 6 figure mark, and now I'm about 15% above that milestone. What a summer it has been!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Likely irrelevant. SWR models are all ATH based, if you plan /w 100% success on the Monte Carlos, getting your butt handed to you is already baked in.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pmI'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble.
Honestly, I worry more about my bond allocation with these yields than I do market crashes. Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You just pointed out a critical flaw of SWR methodologymrspock wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:11 pmLikely irrelevant. SWR models are all ATH based, if you plan /w 100% success on the Monte Carlos, getting your butt handed to you is already baked in.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pmI'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble.
Honestly, I worry more about my bond allocation with these yields than I do market crashes. Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES