U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

atdharris wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:28 am I called this last week - we always hit ATHs when my 401k buys go through.
:beer
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Tamalak
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tamalak »

The market keeps trying to crash but it doesn't even stick for a week. I wonder if something's broken.
Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

Attention Attention. We are in the midst of a Friday Melt-Up sitiation. :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

Attention Attention. We are in the midst of a Friday Melt-Up sitiation. :sharebeer
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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:55 am Stocks are risky regardless of where you invest. We should keep that in mind. For a US investor this decade it seems they only go up, but countless periods where US markets seemed very risky
One person's "risky" is another person's gold mine. :twisted:
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:23 pm S&P 500 does not close above 4400 this year. Discuss.
Definitely at risk here today.
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

So. Much. Soaring. :shock:
anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lostdog's mojo is back!
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Vtsax100 wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:38 am Attention Attention. We are in the midst of a Friday Melt-Up sitiation. :sharebeer
A Melt-Up can not come this early in the day. Must wait for the last 15 minutes.

OTOH, a good old-fashioned rally can came at any point in the day...
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Hopefully NOT a taper down in the making.
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Next week tech earnings...Rally or sell off?
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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lostdog wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:12 am Hopefully NOT a taper down in the making.
Are you going to the gym today?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lostdog wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:24 am Next week tech earnings...Rally or sell off?
Pretty much guaranteed rally based on what we saw from $TWTR and $SNAP.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

anoop wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:25 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:12 am Hopefully NOT a taper down in the making.
Are you going to the gym today?
Yep. This afternoon.
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rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

lostdog wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:24 am Next week tech earnings...Rally or sell off?
With the way things have been this year, if I had to bet I'd say a short but noticeable selloff quickly followed by a strong rally. This market seems prone to look for any opportunity to create whipsaw moments.
lazynovice
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Yellen sent the debt limit letter to Congress. Says limit is going to be hit August 1. Let’s see how the market reacts.
Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

lazynovice wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 am Yellen sent the debt limit letter to Congress. Says limit is going to be hit August 1. Let’s see how the market reacts.
Its just a formality these days. Everyone will do their posturing, then it will get increased.
tsohg
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tsohg »

Vtsax100 wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:58 am
lazynovice wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 am Yellen sent the debt limit letter to Congress. Says limit is going to be hit August 1. Let’s see how the market reacts.
Its just a formality these days. Everyone will do their posturing, then it will get increased.
Yeah. We've seen this before. Meaningless.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

tsohg wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:00 pm
Vtsax100 wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:58 am
lazynovice wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 am Yellen sent the debt limit letter to Congress. Says limit is going to be hit August 1. Let’s see how the market reacts.
Its just a formality these days. Everyone will do their posturing, then it will get increased.
Yeah. We've seen this before. Meaningless.
Headline writers need their clicks!
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Loaded more appl on its red day this week. Have been buying since it was 121.. hope for soaring at earnings..lets see :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Tamalak wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:35 am The market keeps trying to crash but it doesn't even stick for a week. I wonder if something's broken.
Or the companies are making trillions of dollars a year and so stocks go up most of the time.
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

lostdog wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:24 am Next week tech earnings...Rally or sell off?
If we use Snap and Twitter as our guide, it'll be a lot of soaring. Since I still hold Apple, Amazon, FB, and Microsoft, I really hope there is a lot of soaring.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

atdharris wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:24 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:24 am Next week tech earnings...Rally or sell off?
If we use Snap and Twitter as our guide, it'll be a lot of soaring. Since I still hold Apple, Amazon, FB, and Microsoft, I really hope there is a lot of soaring.
I hold some TQQQs and hoping for the same :beer
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Late day melt up in progress.
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Picasso
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Picasso »

And my 401k was sold yesterday to move to my IRA. I’m crying like a baby.
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xraygoggles
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by xraygoggles »

jarjarM wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:00 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 1:24 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:24 am Next week tech earnings...Rally or sell off?
If we use Snap and Twitter as our guide, it'll be a lot of soaring. Since I still hold Apple, Amazon, FB, and Microsoft, I really hope there is a lot of soaring.
I hold some TQQQs and hoping for the same :beer
Tqqq, Tqqq leaps, Apple, Amazon, Amazon leaps. I got it all, baby.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 2:40 pm Late day melt up in progress.
Turned out to be a mini melt.

Or maybe a patty melt.
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pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Yay, VXUS! You did it! :sharebeer
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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
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pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
You still have 5 months and a week, LadyGeek!

Aawww, Livesoft :P
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Boglehead Nation would like nothing more than having our beloved LadyGeek win the 2021 Boglehead contest.

Boglehead Nation would also like to see continued soaring during 2021. And LadyGeek’s prediction of 4428.16 for 12/31/21 closing value leaves precious little room for additional soaring.

So ——- Boglehead Nation, which will it be? LadyGeek winning, or continued soaring?

Maybe we could take a poll. :D
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quietstorm
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by quietstorm »

I logged into Vanguard today intending to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% where it is now down to 25%. I thought about it for a while, and decided not to. I feel a crash is inevitable. But my reasoning is, if I let that 10% ride longer, the gain from it will be more than the loss later.

I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
  • Consider an account with 1 million with 40% invested in VTI (total stock etf) and 60% in short term bonds and cash.
  • Six months pass then a 35% correction occurs. Assume the market behaves like it has lately between now and that correction.
  • Would the account balance right after the correction be higher if the 40% were maintained, versus what the balance would be if I had taken the percent of stock in VTI down to 25% today?

I'd be interested to see what people think about that.
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:40 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Boglehead Nation would like nothing more than having our beloved LadyGeek win the 2021 Boglehead contest.

Boglehead Nation would also like to see continued soaring during 2021. And LadyGeek’s prediction of 4428.16 for 12/31/21 closing value leaves precious little room for additional soaring.

So ——- Boglehead Nation, which will it be? LadyGeek winning, or continued soaring?

Maybe we could take a poll. :D
As much as I would love to see LadyGeek win anything, on this one I'd rather motorcyclesarecool won this year :D
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 456M »

quietstorm wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:51 pm I logged into Vanguard today intending to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% where it is now down to 25%. I thought about it for a while, and decided not to. I feel a crash is inevitable. But my reasoning is, if I let that 10% ride longer, the gain from it will be more than the loss later.

I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
  • Consider an account with 1 million with 40% invested in VTI (total stock etf) and 60% in short term bonds and cash.
  • Six months pass then a 35% correction occurs. Assume the market behaves like it has lately between now and that correction.
  • Would the account balance right after the correction be higher if the 40% were maintained, versus what the balance would be if I had taken the percent of stock in VTI down to 25% today?

I'd be interested to see what people think about that.

Are you retired?
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

quietstorm wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:51 pm I logged into Vanguard today intending to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% where it is now down to 25%. I thought about it for a while, and decided not to. I feel a crash is inevitable. But my reasoning is, if I let that 10% ride longer, the gain from it will be more than the loss later.

I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
  • Consider an account with 1 million with 40% invested in VTI (total stock etf) and 60% in short term bonds and cash.
  • Six months pass then a 35% correction occurs. Assume the market behaves like it has lately between now and that correction.
  • Would the account balance right after the correction be higher if the 40% were maintained, versus what the balance would be if I had taken the percent of stock in VTI down to 25% today?

I'd be interested to see what people think about that.
Well... depends? First, you're seriously market timing here. If you think like this, you never sell until it's too late. Mathematically, the question is, how much would stocks need to rise in six month for a 35% crash to bring the portfolio back to what it's worth today?

Here's your two portfolios from Nov 2019 to April 2020 (had to find something with a big crash at the end of 6 months): Portfolio Backtest
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

quietstorm wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:51 pm I logged into Vanguard today intending to lower my exposure to stocks from 40% where it is now down to 25%. I thought about it for a while, and decided not to. I feel a crash is inevitable. But my reasoning is, if I let that 10% ride longer, the gain from it will be more than the loss later.

I'll put my thoughts in the form of a question:
  • Consider an account with 1 million with 40% invested in VTI (total stock etf) and 60% in short term bonds and cash.
  • Six months pass then a 35% correction occurs. Assume the market behaves like it has lately between now and that correction.
  • Would the account balance right after the correction be higher if the 40% were maintained, versus what the balance would be if I had taken the percent of stock in VTI down to 25% today?

I'd be interested to see what people think about that.
If we get a 35% correction in 6 months, you will almost certainly lose more than you gain in the next 6 months. We would have to see a 50% rise in the next 6 months for this to work.

Not very likely.

If this is long-term money, you can just let it ride through the next crash and not worry about it.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

pasadena wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:40 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Boglehead Nation would like nothing more than having our beloved LadyGeek win the 2021 Boglehead contest.

Boglehead Nation would also like to see continued soaring during 2021. And LadyGeek’s prediction of 4428.16 for 12/31/21 closing value leaves precious little room for additional soaring.

So ——- Boglehead Nation, which will it be? LadyGeek winning, or continued soaring?

Maybe we could take a poll. :D
As much as I would love to see LadyGeek win anything, on this one I'd rather motorcyclesarecool won this year :D
+1 :beer
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Yeah, back to NW ATH (The last one was on 7/12. If I exclude the additional savings I did since then, I'm juuuuust above), and my first Roth IRA just crossed $60k for the first (hopefully last) time.

Enjoy the week-end everyone! :sharebeer
Last edited by pasadena on Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
If this isn't a bubble, in 5-10 years you will have had 5-10 years of being sure we are in a bubble... :)

If this IS a bubble, in 5-10 years we may have recovered from the crash and already be on to new heights.
Last edited by HomerJ on Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
No harm in celebrating the small milestones on the way
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OohLaLa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by OohLaLa »

jarjarM wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:43 pm
pasadena wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:40 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
Boglehead Nation would like nothing more than having our beloved LadyGeek win the 2021 Boglehead contest.

Boglehead Nation would also like to see continued soaring during 2021. And LadyGeek’s prediction of 4428.16 for 12/31/21 closing value leaves precious little room for additional soaring.

So ——- Boglehead Nation, which will it be? LadyGeek winning, or continued soaring?

Maybe we could take a poll. :D
As much as I would love to see LadyGeek win anything, on this one I'd rather motorcyclesarecool won this year :D
+1 :beer
I have nothing against Ladygeek, but I want Forester to win. :mrgreen: There would be some sweet irony to it, especially considering it's significantly higher.
Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
I’m # 2 !!!
Last edited by Nicolas on Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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LadyGeek
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

^^^ :thumbsup

A good investor removes emotion from the decision. Go by the numbers, it won't bother me. No, not in the least. :)
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jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Nicolas wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:45 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
I’m #2 !!!
Let's hope you won't be #2 for long :beer More soaring :mrgreen:
Nicolas
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

jarjarM wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:46 pm
Nicolas wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:45 pm
LadyGeek wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:17 pm Noooo. Take a look who's in the #5 slot for the Bogleheads Contest: Boglehead Contest 2021 :shock: I have to look at that all weekend.

As for the top 10, just a tiny bit (16.57) more...
I’m #2 !!!
Let's hope you won't be #2 for long :beer More soaring :mrgreen:
I’m with you! I don’t want to win now!!
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
Amazing that only two months ago I was amusing myself seeing my total portfolio value bounce just above and below the 6 figure mark, and now I'm about 15% above that milestone. What a summer it has been!
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
Likely irrelevant. SWR models are all ATH based, if you plan /w 100% success on the Monte Carlos, getting your butt handed to you is already baked in.

Honestly, I worry more about my bond allocation with these yields than I do market crashes. Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:11 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
Likely irrelevant. SWR models are all ATH based, if you plan /w 100% success on the Monte Carlos, getting your butt handed to you is already baked in.

Honestly, I worry more about my bond allocation with these yields than I do market crashes. Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
You just pointed out a critical flaw of SWR methodology
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