U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
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z3r0c00l
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
Then it was the housing bubble, mortgage securities crisis leading to a banking crisis. What is it this time?
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 5:54 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
Then it was the housing bubble, mortgage securities crisis leading to a banking crisis. What is it this time?
Everything bubble, hard to say what will blow up first but Elon Musk dressed as Super Mario on SNL, pumping a digi-token is the kind of thing that happens in complacent environments.
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

That was months ago.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
Dear Forester,

Earlier this month you said your asset allocation is: 60/20/20 stocks bonds gold. link If you're so pessimistic, then why do you have such a large stock allocation?

:confused :confused :confused

Love,
Me tender
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:36 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
Dear Forester,

Earlier this month you said your asset allocation is: 60/20/20 stocks bonds gold. link If you're so pessimistic, then why do you have such a large stock allocation?

:confused :confused :confused

Love,
Me tender
Actionable: not retiring or going semi-retired for 5 to 10 years.
Not actionable: nailing the exact month this way or that way, sticking to balanced plan. If a market bottoms/tops in one calendar month or another, could effect a market timer's profits hugely.

Also we don't know whether stocks or bonds will suffer most. If bonds suffer that indirectly implies small cap & value will hold their own.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tamalak »

There is certainly an "everything increase in valuation" but I'm not sure it's an everything bubble. If the risk of systemic failure is lower now, wouldn't it make sense for valuations to be higher compared to underlying production?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

I think valuations are higher because of where interest rates are. We don't seem to have any catalyst to suggest we're on the precipice of a crash like we had in 2008 or March 2020.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:01 am I think valuations are higher because of where interest rates are. We don't seem to have any catalyst to suggest we're on the precipice of a crash like we had in 2008 or March 2020.
Interest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.

Interest rates in exUS are lower and valuations aren’t as high. I’m not convinced of the narrative that interest rates should influence valuations to the degree we are seeing in US markets right now. It sounds more like a narrative to justify that US sentiment is simply quite high right now. Of course that sentiment can change even if rates remain low.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
All I need to disagree with this premise is the knowledge that you're proven (over and over and over) that you have no idea what the future holds. Just like the rest of us.

A crash WILL happen someday. Maybe soon, maybe later.

But you have no idea when and have no special insights into why. Same as the rest of us.

You've proven that you have no special knowledge of the markets. Same as the rest of us, but at least we know that we don't know.
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Semantics »

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:17 am
atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:01 am I think valuations are higher because of where interest rates are. We don't seem to have any catalyst to suggest we're on the precipice of a crash like we had in 2008 or March 2020.
Interest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.

Interest rates in exUS are lower and valuations aren’t as high. I’m not convinced of the narrative that interest rates should influence valuations to the degree we are seeing in US markets right now. It sounds more like a narrative to justify that US sentiment is simply quite high right now. Of course that sentiment can change even if rates remain low.
Your claim does not seem to be supported by the equity risk premium. The ERP today is pretty much exactly where it's been most of the past two decades (during less volatile periods), as well as also being in line with the 300 year average.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions.
The fear mongering is strong with this one.

With a 60% allocation to stocks in your personal portfolio, I think your posts on the imminent and catastrophic demise of stocks markets have reached the level of trolling. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/troll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Small Caps decimated again...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:43 am
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:36 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
Dear Forester,

Earlier this month you said your asset allocation is: 60/20/20 stocks bonds gold. link If you're so pessimistic, then why do you have such a large stock allocation?

:confused :confused :confused

Love,
Me tender
Actionable: not retiring or going semi-retired for 5 to 10 years.
Not actionable: nailing the exact month this way or that way, sticking to balanced plan. If a market bottoms/tops in one calendar month or another, could effect a market timer's profits hugely.

Also we don't know whether stocks or bonds will suffer most. If bonds suffer that indirectly implies small cap & value will hold their own.
Ah, okay. Thank you for the clarification. So, you're a short-term bear, long-term bull, and your warnings are only for those with under a five year time horizon, or anyone doing market timing. If I have this right, I think, in the future, it would be very good for you to make it clear your warnings only pertain to the short-term horizon, but that long-term investors should hold tight and stay the course, as you apparently wisely are.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:20 pm Small Caps decimated again...
About time! They're way ahead of large caps over the last year.
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Post by staustin »

Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
The Shiller p/e index agrees with you.

The DW and I now comfortably at 30% stocks and building a cash position.

This is not to disparage the 100% stock crowd. To each his own and their risk tolerance.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:21 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
All I need to disagree with this premise is the knowledge that you're proven (over and over and over) that you have no idea what the future holds. Just like the rest of us.

A crash WILL happen someday. Maybe soon, maybe later.

But you have no idea when and have no special insights into why. Same as the rest of us.

You've proven that you have no special knowledge of the markets. Same as the rest of us, but at least we know that we don't know.
Release the hounds markets!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:39 pm About time! They're way ahead of large caps over the last year.
Ah, not quite... they were way under Large Caps in the last 3 years even with the initial run up and now they are actually again way under...

Also the S&P 600 are historically much more undervalued than Large Caps which are furiously over valued. Check out the PE ratios in Yardeni's latest paper.
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Post by nedsaid »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:21 am
Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
All I need to disagree with this premise is the knowledge that you're proven (over and over and over) that you have no idea what the future holds. Just like the rest of us.

A crash WILL happen someday. Maybe soon, maybe later.

But you have no idea when and have no special insights into why. Same as the rest of us.

You've proven that you have no special knowledge of the markets. Same as the rest of us, but at least we know that we don't know.
Relax Homer, just regard Forester as a contrary indicator just like the "U.S. Stocks in Freefall" thread. Gosh, is it Freefall or Free Fall? Anywho, have some fun with this. :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:49 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:39 pm About time! They're way ahead of large caps over the last year.
Ah, not quite... they were way under Large Caps in the last 3 years even with the initial run up and now they are actually again way under...

Also the S&P 600 are historically much more undervalued than Large Caps which are furiously over valued. Check out the PE ratios in Yardeni's latest paper.
I couldn't care less. Do 5 years. Or 10. Or 20. My point was just that start and end points matter.

I also don't care about valuations, PE ratios, CAPE, etc. I truly think that none of it is predictive of anything whatsoever. Yes, I actually think they're completely useless measures.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:00 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:20 pm Small Caps decimated again...
Yes, down 2% after a 5% gain during the prior two trading days (IJS). And still up 22% YTD and 124% since COVID low (both excluding dividends). Compare to 16% and 96%, respectively, for VOO.
Are they? Fidelity is showing my small cap fund in my 401k is up 13% YTD compared to 17% for the S&P. A few weeks ago, small caps were outperforming by a good amount.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Post by YRT70 »

atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:21 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:00 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:20 pm Small Caps decimated again...
Yes, down 2% after a 5% gain during the prior two trading days (IJS). And still up 22% YTD and 124% since COVID low (both excluding dividends). Compare to 16% and 96%, respectively, for VOO.
Are they? Fidelity is showing my small cap fund in my 401k is up 13% YTD compared to 17% for the S&P. A few weeks ago, small caps were outperforming by a good amount.
Yes IJS is up ~24.8% YTD.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ijs/performance
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

YRT70 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:42 pm
atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:21 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:00 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:20 pm Small Caps decimated again...
Yes, down 2% after a 5% gain during the prior two trading days (IJS). And still up 22% YTD and 124% since COVID low (both excluding dividends). Compare to 16% and 96%, respectively, for VOO.
Are they? Fidelity is showing my small cap fund in my 401k is up 13% YTD compared to 17% for the S&P. A few weeks ago, small caps were outperforming by a good amount.
Yes IJS is up ~24.8% YTD.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ijs/performance
Ah, I see. I only hold a general small cap fund. No SCV fund offered in my 401k
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by YRT70 »

atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:14 pm
YRT70 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:42 pm
atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:21 pm
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:00 pm
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:20 pm Small Caps decimated again...
Yes, down 2% after a 5% gain during the prior two trading days (IJS). And still up 22% YTD and 124% since COVID low (both excluding dividends). Compare to 16% and 96%, respectively, for VOO.
Are they? Fidelity is showing my small cap fund in my 401k is up 13% YTD compared to 17% for the S&P. A few weeks ago, small caps were outperforming by a good amount.
Yes IJS is up ~24.8% YTD.

https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ijs/performance
Ah, I see. I only hold a general small cap fund. No SCV fund offered in my 401k
Ah that makes sense. VB Vanguard small cap is up 14% ytd.
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Post by rchmx1 »

Back to ATH. Thank was quick! :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

Forester wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 3:46 am Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
You been saying that for the last like 18 months. How could one be so eloquently confident and so wrong at the same time.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:17 am
atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:01 am I think valuations are higher because of where interest rates are. We don't seem to have any catalyst to suggest we're on the precipice of a crash like we had in 2008 or March 2020.
Interest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.
But stocks did have one of their best ever runs in the US from 1949 - 1965, then in 1965 interest rates started going up and stocks suffered. Inflation adjusted, stocks didn't regain that 1965 level, the very year interest rates started climbing, until 1995. Stocks started their recovery in 1982, the very year interest rates topped out and started dropping.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:07 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:17 am
atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:01 am I think valuations are higher because of where interest rates are. We don't seem to have any catalyst to suggest we're on the precipice of a crash like we had in 2008 or March 2020.
Interest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.
But stocks did have one of their best ever runs in the US from 1949 - 1965, then in 1965 interest rates started going up and stocks suffered. Inflation adjusted, stocks didn't regain that 1965 level, the very year interest rates started climbing, until 1995. Stocks started their recovery in 1982, the very year interest rates topped out and started dropping.
Looking at history is meaningless. What we have the fed and congress doing right now has never been done in the US. And given that the USD is the reserve currency and all central banks are acting in coordination, I'd say what's going on now has never been done, period.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Somethingwitty92912 »

lazynovice wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:58 am
Vtsax100 wrote: Fri Jul 09, 2021 8:54 am Back to soaring? Who bought the dip?
If stocks only go up, you are always buying the dip.
This is some sage level stuff right here.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:35 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:08 pm
rockstar wrote: Thu Jun 17, 2021 7:11 pm My top three holdings are: QQQ, VOO, and AMZN in that order.
I'm surprised you list Amazon as one of your top holdings. I own it too, but Bogleheads have made me leery about taking on top much single stock risk.
It's nearly doubled since I bought it last March 2020. That's why it's in my top three. I usually hold investments for at least two years before selling them. This is the usual run up to Prime Day. I have no idea if I'll sell next March, but that would be when I hit the two year point.
I'm kind of considering dumping QQQ and making it VOO straight up. I think it's easier this way, since I might open a Merrill Edge account and all that jazz.
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Post by z3r0c00l »

anoop wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:27 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:07 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:17 am
atdharris wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:01 am I think valuations are higher because of where interest rates are. We don't seem to have any catalyst to suggest we're on the precipice of a crash like we had in 2008 or March 2020.
Interest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.
But stocks did have one of their best ever runs in the US from 1949 - 1965, then in 1965 interest rates started going up and stocks suffered. Inflation adjusted, stocks didn't regain that 1965 level, the very year interest rates started climbing, until 1995. Stocks started their recovery in 1982, the very year interest rates topped out and started dropping.
Looking at history is meaningless. What we have the fed and congress doing right now has never been done in the US. And given that the USD is the reserve currency and all central banks are acting in coordination, I'd say what's going on now has never been done, period.
The past is the best predictor of future behavior, even if it isn't perfect. And the past seems to indicate that low interest rates = very good stock runs. This not only makes sense, but hints to me that high stock prices today also make sense.
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Post by Stinky »

Futures are solidly green, pointing to the 4th "soaring" day in a row.

Monday's "free fall" increasingly looks like an aberration.
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Post by Triple digit golfer »

I think about a 0.8% increase in stocks with bonds flat today gets my portfolio back to all-time highs.

Without my pesky international holdings, I'd likely be there already, given recent contributions.
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Post by CurlyDave »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 8:15 am I think about a 0.8% increase in stocks with bonds flat today gets my portfolio back to all-time highs.

Without my pesky international holdings, I'd likely be there already, given recent contributions.
Personally, I would be doing a lot better without either pesky international holdings or equally troublesome bonds. Of course there is a lot of 20/20 hindsight in that wishful thinking.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Post by YRT70 »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:55 pm Small Caps are in meltdown, this asset class just can't get a break for the last several years. Large is set to overtake YTD performance. I thought finally Small is going to take leadership since it typically does coming out of recessions. Perhaps Small as an asset class is permanently become dysfunctional? Who knows.
stocknoob4111 wrote: Fri Jul 16, 2021 2:28 pm Small Caps getting decimated again, oh well, what's new... hope the bleeding stops sometime
stocknoob4111 wrote: Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:20 pm Small Caps decimated again...
You're on to something.

Image
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Post by Triple digit golfer »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 8:23 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 8:15 am I think about a 0.8% increase in stocks with bonds flat today gets my portfolio back to all-time highs.

Without my pesky international holdings, I'd likely be there already, given recent contributions.
Personally, I would be doing a lot better without either pesky international holdings or equally troublesome bonds. Of course there is a lot of 20/20 hindsight in that wishful thinking.
I think we should sell them! :wink:
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Post by Robot Monster »

Chinese stocks are in the House of Pain!!! China ETF MCHI is -3.38%. And quite the disparity between International Developed (VEA) and Total International (VXUS).

VEA +0.48%
VXUS -0.02%

Also noteworthy is Didi stock, the Chinese company that recently had its IPO, and which Jim Cramer, at the time, said, “If you want to speculate on a Chinese IPO, you’ve got my blessing to bet on Didi. I would try to get as many shares as you can. "

Didi -17.9% just today!!!
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Post by atdharris »

It just seems so risky to be heavily invested in a country like China. VWO on its own is in a house of pain
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Post by Nathan Drake »

atdharris wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:44 am It just seems so risky to be heavily invested in a country like China. VWO on its own is in a house of pain
Stocks are risky regardless of where you invest. We should keep that in mind. For a US investor this decade it seems they only go up, but countless periods where US markets seemed very risky
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Post by Triple digit golfer »

I absolutely think that foreign stocks, specifically emerging markets, are more risky than U.S. stocks. This should come as no surprise.
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Post by Nathan Drake »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:00 am I absolutely think that foreign stocks, specifically emerging markets, are more risky than U.S. stocks. This should come as no surprise.
Yes, and with that comes higher expected returns
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Post by lostdog »

A good diversified investor will always have a stinker in their portfolio.
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Post by 456M »

VTI just hit a new all time high :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

So, how about them US stonks, eh?! Quite the soaring!
Last edited by Robot Monster on Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

S&P 4400!
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Candor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Candor »

4400 S&P 500 in the books. On to 4500 and beyond. :D
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

I called this last week - we always hit ATHs when my 401k buys go through.
GoneOnTilt
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoneOnTilt »

atdharris wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:28 am I called this last week - we always hit ATHs when my 401k buys go through.
Same here. But I couldn't help buying on the dip earlier in the week. No material difference, no doubt. But it felt good. :happy
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