U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Financial markets are sleepwalking into a disaster of historic proportions. To disagree with this premise one would have to suggest that financial actors are being more sensible today than in 2007. I humbly offer that this is not the case.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Then it was the housing bubble, mortgage securities crisis leading to a banking crisis. What is it this time?
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Everything bubble, hard to say what will blow up first but Elon Musk dressed as Super Mario on SNL, pumping a digi-token is the kind of thing that happens in complacent environments.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
That was months ago.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Dear Forester,
Earlier this month you said your asset allocation is: 60/20/20 stocks bonds gold. link If you're so pessimistic, then why do you have such a large stock allocation?
Love,
Me tender
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Actionable: not retiring or going semi-retired for 5 to 10 years.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:36 amDear Forester,
Earlier this month you said your asset allocation is: 60/20/20 stocks bonds gold. link If you're so pessimistic, then why do you have such a large stock allocation?
Love,
Me tender
Not actionable: nailing the exact month this way or that way, sticking to balanced plan. If a market bottoms/tops in one calendar month or another, could effect a market timer's profits hugely.
Also we don't know whether stocks or bonds will suffer most. If bonds suffer that indirectly implies small cap & value will hold their own.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
There is certainly an "everything increase in valuation" but I'm not sure it's an everything bubble. If the risk of systemic failure is lower now, wouldn't it make sense for valuations to be higher compared to underlying production?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think valuations are higher because of where interest rates are. We don't seem to have any catalyst to suggest we're on the precipice of a crash like we had in 2008 or March 2020.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Interest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.
Interest rates in exUS are lower and valuations aren’t as high. I’m not convinced of the narrative that interest rates should influence valuations to the degree we are seeing in US markets right now. It sounds more like a narrative to justify that US sentiment is simply quite high right now. Of course that sentiment can change even if rates remain low.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
All I need to disagree with this premise is the knowledge that you're proven (over and over and over) that you have no idea what the future holds. Just like the rest of us.
A crash WILL happen someday. Maybe soon, maybe later.
But you have no idea when and have no special insights into why. Same as the rest of us.
You've proven that you have no special knowledge of the markets. Same as the rest of us, but at least we know that we don't know.
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Your claim does not seem to be supported by the equity risk premium. The ERP today is pretty much exactly where it's been most of the past two decades (during less volatile periods), as well as also being in line with the 300 year average.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:17 amInterest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.
Interest rates in exUS are lower and valuations aren’t as high. I’m not convinced of the narrative that interest rates should influence valuations to the degree we are seeing in US markets right now. It sounds more like a narrative to justify that US sentiment is simply quite high right now. Of course that sentiment can change even if rates remain low.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The fear mongering is strong with this one.
With a 60% allocation to stocks in your personal portfolio, I think your posts on the imminent and catastrophic demise of stocks markets have reached the level of trolling. https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/troll https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_troll
Make sure you check out my list of certifications. The list is short, and there aren't any. - Eric 0. from SMA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Small Caps decimated again...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Ah, okay. Thank you for the clarification. So, you're a short-term bear, long-term bull, and your warnings are only for those with under a five year time horizon, or anyone doing market timing. If I have this right, I think, in the future, it would be very good for you to make it clear your warnings only pertain to the short-term horizon, but that long-term investors should hold tight and stay the course, as you apparently wisely are.Forester wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:43 amActionable: not retiring or going semi-retired for 5 to 10 years.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:36 amDear Forester,
Earlier this month you said your asset allocation is: 60/20/20 stocks bonds gold. link If you're so pessimistic, then why do you have such a large stock allocation?
Love,
Me tender
Not actionable: nailing the exact month this way or that way, sticking to balanced plan. If a market bottoms/tops in one calendar month or another, could effect a market timer's profits hugely.
Also we don't know whether stocks or bonds will suffer most. If bonds suffer that indirectly implies small cap & value will hold their own.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
About time! They're way ahead of large caps over the last year.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The Shiller p/e index agrees with you.
The DW and I now comfortably at 30% stocks and building a cash position.
This is not to disparage the 100% stock crowd. To each his own and their risk tolerance.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Release the hounds markets!HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:21 amAll I need to disagree with this premise is the knowledge that you're proven (over and over and over) that you have no idea what the future holds. Just like the rest of us.
A crash WILL happen someday. Maybe soon, maybe later.
But you have no idea when and have no special insights into why. Same as the rest of us.
You've proven that you have no special knowledge of the markets. Same as the rest of us, but at least we know that we don't know.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Ah, not quite... they were way under Large Caps in the last 3 years even with the initial run up and now they are actually again way under...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:39 pm About time! They're way ahead of large caps over the last year.
Also the S&P 600 are historically much more undervalued than Large Caps which are furiously over valued. Check out the PE ratios in Yardeni's latest paper.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Relax Homer, just regard Forester as a contrary indicator just like the "U.S. Stocks in Freefall" thread. Gosh, is it Freefall or Free Fall? Anywho, have some fun with this.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 11:21 amAll I need to disagree with this premise is the knowledge that you're proven (over and over and over) that you have no idea what the future holds. Just like the rest of us.
A crash WILL happen someday. Maybe soon, maybe later.
But you have no idea when and have no special insights into why. Same as the rest of us.
You've proven that you have no special knowledge of the markets. Same as the rest of us, but at least we know that we don't know.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
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Last edited by fatcoffeedrinker on Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I couldn't care less. Do 5 years. Or 10. Or 20. My point was just that start and end points matter.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:49 pmAh, not quite... they were way under Large Caps in the last 3 years even with the initial run up and now they are actually again way under...Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 12:39 pm About time! They're way ahead of large caps over the last year.
Also the S&P 600 are historically much more undervalued than Large Caps which are furiously over valued. Check out the PE ratios in Yardeni's latest paper.
I also don't care about valuations, PE ratios, CAPE, etc. I truly think that none of it is predictive of anything whatsoever. Yes, I actually think they're completely useless measures.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Are they? Fidelity is showing my small cap fund in my 401k is up 13% YTD compared to 17% for the S&P. A few weeks ago, small caps were outperforming by a good amount.fatcoffeedrinker wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:00 pmYes, down 2% after a 5% gain during the prior two trading days (IJS). And still up 22% YTD and 124% since COVID low (both excluding dividends). Compare to 16% and 96%, respectively, for VOO.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
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Last edited by fatcoffeedrinker on Wed Mar 02, 2022 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes IJS is up ~24.8% YTD.atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:21 pmAre they? Fidelity is showing my small cap fund in my 401k is up 13% YTD compared to 17% for the S&P. A few weeks ago, small caps were outperforming by a good amount.fatcoffeedrinker wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:00 pmYes, down 2% after a 5% gain during the prior two trading days (IJS). And still up 22% YTD and 124% since COVID low (both excluding dividends). Compare to 16% and 96%, respectively, for VOO.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ijs/performance
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Ah, I see. I only hold a general small cap fund. No SCV fund offered in my 401kYRT70 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:42 pmYes IJS is up ~24.8% YTD.atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:21 pmAre they? Fidelity is showing my small cap fund in my 401k is up 13% YTD compared to 17% for the S&P. A few weeks ago, small caps were outperforming by a good amount.fatcoffeedrinker wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:00 pmYes, down 2% after a 5% gain during the prior two trading days (IJS). And still up 22% YTD and 124% since COVID low (both excluding dividends). Compare to 16% and 96%, respectively, for VOO.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ijs/performance
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Ah that makes sense. VB Vanguard small cap is up 14% ytd.atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 2:14 pmAh, I see. I only hold a general small cap fund. No SCV fund offered in my 401kYRT70 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:42 pmYes IJS is up ~24.8% YTD.atdharris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:21 pmAre they? Fidelity is showing my small cap fund in my 401k is up 13% YTD compared to 17% for the S&P. A few weeks ago, small caps were outperforming by a good amount.fatcoffeedrinker wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 1:00 pmYes, down 2% after a 5% gain during the prior two trading days (IJS). And still up 22% YTD and 124% since COVID low (both excluding dividends). Compare to 16% and 96%, respectively, for VOO.
https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/arcx/ijs/performance
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Back to ATH. Thank was quick!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You been saying that for the last like 18 months. How could one be so eloquently confident and so wrong at the same time.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
But stocks did have one of their best ever runs in the US from 1949 - 1965, then in 1965 interest rates started going up and stocks suffered. Inflation adjusted, stocks didn't regain that 1965 level, the very year interest rates started climbing, until 1995. Stocks started their recovery in 1982, the very year interest rates topped out and started dropping.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:17 amInterest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looking at history is meaningless. What we have the fed and congress doing right now has never been done in the US. And given that the USD is the reserve currency and all central banks are acting in coordination, I'd say what's going on now has never been done, period.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:07 pmBut stocks did have one of their best ever runs in the US from 1949 - 1965, then in 1965 interest rates started going up and stocks suffered. Inflation adjusted, stocks didn't regain that 1965 level, the very year interest rates started climbing, until 1995. Stocks started their recovery in 1982, the very year interest rates topped out and started dropping.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:17 amInterest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is some sage level stuff right here.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm kind of considering dumping QQQ and making it VOO straight up. I think it's easier this way, since I might open a Merrill Edge account and all that jazz.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:35 pmIt's nearly doubled since I bought it last March 2020. That's why it's in my top three. I usually hold investments for at least two years before selling them. This is the usual run up to Prime Day. I have no idea if I'll sell next March, but that would be when I hit the two year point.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Thu Jun 17, 2021 9:08 pmI'm surprised you list Amazon as one of your top holdings. I own it too, but Bogleheads have made me leery about taking on top much single stock risk.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The past is the best predictor of future behavior, even if it isn't perfect. And the past seems to indicate that low interest rates = very good stock runs. This not only makes sense, but hints to me that high stock prices today also make sense.anoop wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:27 pmLooking at history is meaningless. What we have the fed and congress doing right now has never been done in the US. And given that the USD is the reserve currency and all central banks are acting in coordination, I'd say what's going on now has never been done, period.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 4:07 pmBut stocks did have one of their best ever runs in the US from 1949 - 1965, then in 1965 interest rates started going up and stocks suffered. Inflation adjusted, stocks didn't regain that 1965 level, the very year interest rates started climbing, until 1995. Stocks started their recovery in 1982, the very year interest rates topped out and started dropping.Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:17 amInterest rates were similarly low in the 50s and this wasn’t the case.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Futures are solidly green, pointing to the 4th "soaring" day in a row.
Monday's "free fall" increasingly looks like an aberration.
Monday's "free fall" increasingly looks like an aberration.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think about a 0.8% increase in stocks with bonds flat today gets my portfolio back to all-time highs.
Without my pesky international holdings, I'd likely be there already, given recent contributions.
Without my pesky international holdings, I'd likely be there already, given recent contributions.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Personally, I would be doing a lot better without either pesky international holdings or equally troublesome bonds. Of course there is a lot of 20/20 hindsight in that wishful thinking.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 8:15 am I think about a 0.8% increase in stocks with bonds flat today gets my portfolio back to all-time highs.
Without my pesky international holdings, I'd likely be there already, given recent contributions.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Wed Jul 14, 2021 3:55 pm Small Caps are in meltdown, this asset class just can't get a break for the last several years. Large is set to overtake YTD performance. I thought finally Small is going to take leadership since it typically does coming out of recessions. Perhaps Small as an asset class is permanently become dysfunctional? Who knows.
stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Fri Jul 16, 2021 2:28 pm Small Caps getting decimated again, oh well, what's new... hope the bleeding stops sometime
You're on to something.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think we should sell them!CurlyDave wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 8:23 amPersonally, I would be doing a lot better without either pesky international holdings or equally troublesome bonds. Of course there is a lot of 20/20 hindsight in that wishful thinking.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 8:15 am I think about a 0.8% increase in stocks with bonds flat today gets my portfolio back to all-time highs.
Without my pesky international holdings, I'd likely be there already, given recent contributions.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Chinese stocks are in the House of Pain!!! China ETF MCHI is -3.38%. And quite the disparity between International Developed (VEA) and Total International (VXUS).
VEA +0.48%
VXUS -0.02%
Also noteworthy is Didi stock, the Chinese company that recently had its IPO, and which Jim Cramer, at the time, said, “If you want to speculate on a Chinese IPO, you’ve got my blessing to bet on Didi. I would try to get as many shares as you can. "
Didi -17.9% just today!!!
VEA +0.48%
VXUS -0.02%
Also noteworthy is Didi stock, the Chinese company that recently had its IPO, and which Jim Cramer, at the time, said, “If you want to speculate on a Chinese IPO, you’ve got my blessing to bet on Didi. I would try to get as many shares as you can. "
Didi -17.9% just today!!!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It just seems so risky to be heavily invested in a country like China. VWO on its own is in a house of pain
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Stocks are risky regardless of where you invest. We should keep that in mind. For a US investor this decade it seems they only go up, but countless periods where US markets seemed very risky
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I absolutely think that foreign stocks, specifically emerging markets, are more risky than U.S. stocks. This should come as no surprise.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes, and with that comes higher expected returnsTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:00 am I absolutely think that foreign stocks, specifically emerging markets, are more risky than U.S. stocks. This should come as no surprise.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
A good diversified investor will always have a stinker in their portfolio.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
VTI just hit a new all time high
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So, how about them US stonks, eh?! Quite the soaring!
Last edited by Robot Monster on Fri Jul 23, 2021 12:00 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
S&P 4400!
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
4400 S&P 500 in the books. On to 4500 and beyond.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I called this last week - we always hit ATHs when my 401k buys go through.
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