U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

I guess Papa Powell soothed markets yesterday with whatever he said.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

atdharris wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:05 am I guess Papa Powell soothed markets yesterday with whatever he said.
And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
fanmail
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fanmail »

fanmail wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:34 am 2.6% above Monday's low
2.6% below all time high earlier this month
now 3.8% above low and 1.6% off highs
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Last hurrah??? Or just getting ready for the debt ceiling drama. Either way, I'm okay with soaring but also prepare for free fall. We should have a thread on that :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
I recommend this Odd Lots interview with Rob Kaplan of the Dallas Fed. A lot of the stuff he talked about there seems to have set the stage for yesterday.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
Williams57
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Williams57 »

drk wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:01 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
I recommend this Odd Lots interview with Rob Kaplan of the Dallas Fed. A lot of the stuff he talked about there seems to have set the stage for yesterday.
Love "Odd Lots", my favorite podcast.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

drk wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:01 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
I recommend this Odd Lots interview with Rob Kaplan of the Dallas Fed. A lot of the stuff he talked about there seems to have set the stage for yesterday.
Thank you, will check it out :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by FlatSix »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am
CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
It's almost as if, nobody knows nothing! :happy
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

calvin+hobbes wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:27 pm It's almost as if, nobody knows nothing! :happy
Yeah, this is why passive investing is so effective. Personally I don't necessarily frame it as knowing or not knowing, but the market is irrational; so the right move is to simply stay in and hope it goes up over the long term.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

drk wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:01 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
I recommend this Odd Lots interview with Rob Kaplan of the Dallas Fed. A lot of the stuff he talked about there seems to have set the stage for yesterday.
Thank you for the Odd Lots reference. I’ve subscribed and listening now.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by clip651 »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:53 pm Either way, I'm okay with soaring but also prepare for free fall. We should have a thread on that :wink:
OK with soaring and prepared for free fall is a big chunk of the wiki, and what many threads are about! :D Bogleheads 101 - Don't try to time the market, stay the course and all that.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by xraygoggles »

jarjarM wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:53 pm Last hurrah??? Or just getting ready for the debt ceiling drama. Either way, I'm okay with soaring but also prepare for free fall. We should have a thread on that :wink:
Free falls are great, because then we get to read about Forester's elaborate disquisition about the doom & gloom forthcoming.
Simplicity is the key to brilliance - Vti & chill.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RyeBourbon »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am
CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dreambig »

xraygoggles wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:06 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 12:53 pm Last hurrah??? Or just getting ready for the debt ceiling drama. Either way, I'm okay with soaring but also prepare for free fall. We should have a thread on that :wink:
Free falls are great, because then we get to read about Forester's elaborate disquisition about the doom & gloom forthcoming.
Eventually he's going to be right! :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

RyeBourbon wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:57 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am
CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
TINA
We had better brace for both parabola and crash.

Maybe time for long vol?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Looks like a red day. Time to fire up the free fall thread.
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

A very strange day, SPX futures looked bloody premarket but SPX open was not crazy. VXUS -1% presumably because Hang Seng went -1.3%.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:29 am A very strange day, SPX futures looked bloody premarket but SPX open was not crazy. VXUS -1% presumably because Hang Seng went -1.3%.
VEA(Developed Markets) is about the same. Does VEA hold China stocks?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:04 am VEA(Developed Markets) is about the same. Does VEA hold China stocks?
Based on this, I don't see China: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vea

Maybe they are considered EM rather than developed.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:16 am
lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:04 am VEA(Developed Markets) is about the same. Does VEA hold China stocks?
Based on this, I don't see China: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vea

Maybe they are considered EM rather than developed.
I think you're right. China is considered EM.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sweetness9 »

lostdog wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:04 am
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:29 am A very strange day, SPX futures looked bloody premarket but SPX open was not crazy. VXUS -1% presumably because Hang Seng went -1.3%.
VEA(Developed Markets) is about the same. Does VEA hold China stocks?
European markets were also down about 1%.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Admiral »

Melt. Up. In. Progress.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RyeBourbon »

000 wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:35 am
RyeBourbon wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:57 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am
CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
TINA
We had better brace for both parabola and crash.

Maybe time for long vol?

Set the AA Controls for the Heart of the Sun.
Last edited by RyeBourbon on Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo »

RyeBourbon wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:09 pm
000 wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:35 am
RyeBourbon wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:57 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am
CurlyDave wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 9:56 am And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
TINA
We had better brace for both parabola and crash.

Maybe time for long vol?

Set the AA Controls for the Center of the Sun.
Did you mean for the "...Heart of the Sun?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

Admiral wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 2:48 pm Melt. Up. In. Progress.
Posted exactly at the day's top. Good timing!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by RyeBourbon »

marcopolo wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:22 pm
RyeBourbon wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:09 pm
000 wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:35 am
RyeBourbon wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:57 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am

Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
TINA
We had better brace for both parabola and crash.

Maybe time for long vol?

Set the AA Controls for the Center of the Sun.
Did you mean for the "...Heart of the Sun?
Indeed I did
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Forester wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 am Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
You're doing better... You weren't dumb enough to say 2021 Q4 (and then try to explain later that Q4 can sometimes also include January)

Instead you said 2021/2022, so you're covered for a while.

But even better, you should say "Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 the future"

Then you can claim victory no matter when it happens (if it happens).

Also kudos on "highly likely" instead of your normal utterly confident assertions.
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:58 pm I personally guarantee that the top will be in, Q3 to Q4 this year.
With "highly likely", you're covered even if it DOESN'T happen.

Your AI program is getting better and better every week!
Last edited by HomerJ on Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by DB2 »

If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Forester wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 am Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
I think that this prediction may have some validity. Who knows what other landmines are buried in the Chinese (and other) markets?

The question is whether problems in little-known companies like Evergrande will turn into a contagion. Central bankers have recently poured buckets of money into making sure that asset prices remain high. Do the bankers still have dry powder for future problems?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

I like this chart... if you look at it it shows forward PE fairly stable around 16-17 until something changed in Q4 2019. With forward EPS at 210 and a 17 multiple we get fair value at 3600 or so on the SPX which is 20% lower than where we are at today. As for the low interest rate argument - the situation was still stable around Q3 2019 when interest rates were very low but seems to have suddenly taken off after that.

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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

Forester wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 am Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
OMG!!!! Do I actually agree with you? :oops: :confused

I would say "Possible that more Evergrandes will be uncovered in the future. - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is a symptom of modern system-wide entanglement, not the cause."

No. I guess not. That's not actually close enough to call it agreement.
Whew
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by runcyc »

Forester wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 am Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
No one knows the precise causes of Evergrande's impending defaults, except perhaps Evergrande top-level Execs and China's top government officials. But, we can only speculate. I'll speculate that Evergrande's operations weren't scrutized and regulated the way they would be in most well-developed markets, in non-communist Countries. Perhaps, China's Government was receiving payoffs from Evergrande, in exchange for "free reins". If so, that situation would not be necessarily symptomatic of a global financial asset bubble.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by L84SUPR »

vanbogle59 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:01 am
Forester wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 am Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
OMG!!!! Do I actually agree with you? :oops: :confused

I would say "Possible that more Evergrandes will be uncovered in the future. - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is a symptom of modern system-wide entanglement, not the cause."

No. I guess not. That's not actually close enough to call it agreement.
Whew
Perhaps we can get concensus that it is likely (say 90 percent chance) some additional Evergrandes will come to light over the next 24 months.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

L84SUPR wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:44 am
vanbogle59 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:01 am
Forester wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 am Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
OMG!!!! Do I actually agree with you? :oops: :confused

I would say "Possible that more Evergrandes will be uncovered in the future. - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is a symptom of modern system-wide entanglement, not the cause."

No. I guess not. That's not actually close enough to call it agreement.
Whew
Perhaps we can get concensus that it is likely (say 90 percent chance) some additional Evergrandes will come to light over the next 24 months.
Just say likely. Don't put a number on it. 24 months isn't good either... in the future is always preferred. You can say "near future" if you want. That's still not exact.

Plausible deniability is key.

Never ever say an actual number.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

runcyc wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:40 am No one knows the precise causes of Evergrande's impending defaults, except perhaps Evergrande top-level Execs and China's top government officials.
What are you talking about? They borrowed too much money, and couldn't afford to pay it back or even service the interest. You don't need to be on the "inside" to know that. It really is that simple.
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Post by smalliebigs »

Beensabu wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:19 pm What are you talking about? They borrowed too much money, and couldn't afford to pay it back or even service the interest. You don't need to be on the "inside" to know that. It really is that simple.
Let him play conspiracy theorist
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Post by nigel_ht »

DB2 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
It plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

Beensabu wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:19 pm
runcyc wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:40 am No one knows the precise causes of Evergrande's impending defaults, except perhaps Evergrande top-level Execs and China's top government officials.
What are you talking about? They borrowed too much money, and couldn't afford to pay it back or even service the interest. You don't need to be on the "inside" to know that. It really is that simple.
Lol…someday that will be the US…
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Post by HomerJ »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:36 am
Beensabu wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:19 pm
runcyc wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:40 am No one knows the precise causes of Evergrande's impending defaults, except perhaps Evergrande top-level Execs and China's top government officials.
What are you talking about? They borrowed too much money, and couldn't afford to pay it back or even service the interest. You don't need to be on the "inside" to know that. It really is that simple.
Lol…someday that will be the US…
Not when you borrow at 1.5% and inflation is at 2%-3%
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fennewaldaj »

Forester wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 8:01 am Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
There are a lot of them in China from what I have read. It still seems mostly a China thing. There capital markets are fairly walled off from the rest of the world. There are a few markets in the rest of the world that have property price/income ratios similar to China but those are more the exception than the norm.
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Post by HanSolo »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:59 am
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:36 am
Beensabu wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 5:19 pm
runcyc wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:40 am No one knows the precise causes of Evergrande's impending defaults, except perhaps Evergrande top-level Execs and China's top government officials.
What are you talking about? They borrowed too much money, and couldn't afford to pay it back or even service the interest. You don't need to be on the "inside" to know that. It really is that simple.
Lol…someday that will be the US…
Not when you borrow at 1.5% and inflation is at 2%-3%
Not sure the numbers work out so well when you get to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 10x, or 100x.
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Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 am
DB2 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
It plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.
What does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.
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Post by Marseille07 »

SPX futures +0.4% for some reason. Nikkei up slightly but not by much...
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Post by Candor »

Keenobserver wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:54 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 am
DB2 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
It plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.
What does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.
Sign up to be one of his "members" and you can learn all about his exclusive Fibonacci Pinball:

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Beensabu
Posts: 5618
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Keenobserver wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:54 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 am
DB2 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
It plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.
What does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.
He very clearly states to "appropriately prepare" at his stated timeframe of 1-2 years by taking the lessons learned from the Great Depression. :)

More importantly, why is he so sure we're in wave III instead of V? That's a fairly large assumption.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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HomerJ
Posts: 21240
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:21 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:54 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 am
DB2 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
It plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.
What does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.
He very clearly states to "appropriately prepare" at his stated timeframe of 1-2 years by taking the lessons learned from the Great Depression. :)

More importantly, why is he so sure we're in wave III instead of V? That's a fairly large assumption.
It's assumptions all the way down.

Kind of like turtles.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Beensabu
Posts: 5618
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

HomerJ wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:26 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:21 pm
Keenobserver wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:54 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 am
DB2 wrote: Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
It plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.
What does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.
He very clearly states to "appropriately prepare" at his stated timeframe of 1-2 years by taking the lessons learned from the Great Depression. :)

More importantly, why is he so sure we're in wave III instead of V? That's a fairly large assumption.
It's assumptions all the way down.

Kind of like turtles.
Ooooh. You've called infinite regress. :D
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
anoop
Posts: 3908
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 12:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

stocks -> down
bonds -> down
gold -> down
silver -> down
cash -> down (because of inflation)

2 fed presidents resigning doesn't help.

we need the new stimulus bills asap.
Locked