U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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456M
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 456M »

Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
Just remind me when to sell before all this calamity you see in your crystal ball transpires.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

456M wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:53 am
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
Just remind me when to sell before all this calamity you see in your crystal ball transpires.
The crystal ball is currently saying to sell in just over two months.

That’s plenty of time for the “forecast” to change multiple more times.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

I'm more nervous because of Forester's apparent short-term positive forecast.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:24 am I'm more nervous because of Forester's apparent short-term positive forecast.
Me too. The opposite happens with every one of his forecasts. We're in trouble.
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gonefishing01
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gonefishing01 »

lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:49 am
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:24 am I'm more nervous because of Forester's apparent short-term positive forecast.
Me too. The opposite happens with every one of his forecasts. We're in trouble.
This is the truth. Good news is 2022 and beyond could be incredible! :D
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Futures looking very green with 30 minutes to go. :moneybag :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

For once no taper down today?
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retiringwhen
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by retiringwhen »

lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:05 am For once no taper down today?
We have only 6 hours to find out!
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 456M »

I'm starting to think there's just too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip. It appears the market has no plans for a proper correction without something to instill a little fear. Maybe the t word will do the trick?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mr_brightside »

456M wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:19 am I'm starting to think there's just too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip. It appears the market has no plans for a proper correction without something to instill a little fear. Maybe the t word will do the trick?
i agree

a potential China debacle is looming also. we shall see.

the flip side is IMO there are some crazy disruptions to the supply chain across numerous industries. if that ever gets worked out -- we could see some massive $$$ buying of pent up demand

----------------------------------------------
Last edited by mr_brightside on Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
Keenobserver
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

456M wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:19 am I'm starting to think there's just too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip. It appears the market has no plans for a proper correction without something to instill a little fear. Maybe the t word will do the trick?
Isnt it much simpler and energy effiecient to just stay invested and keep contributing as per invesment statement? No need to worry about the nuisances. I would have been out of the market long ago if I listened to the " experts." If market does well then there is a " bubble" be ready for a crash. If market is going down, OmG we are headed for a crash. How about accepting anything can happen, and no one knows what/ when. So a correction might be due, but when and how much? If one doesnt know exactly than its just wasted words. I stongly believe that most companies in sp 500 will be worth more years down the road then they are today. That is my investment premise and it doesnt chnage regardless of what might be happening on a given day.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Keenobserver wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:43 am
456M wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:19 am I'm starting to think there's just too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip. It appears the market has no plans for a proper correction without something to instill a little fear. Maybe the t word will do the trick?
Isnt it much simpler and energy effiecient to just stay invested and keep contributing as per invesment statement? No need to worry about the nuisances. I would have been out of the market long ago if I listened to the " experts." If market does well then there is a " bubble" be ready for a crash. If market is going down, OmG we are headed for a crash. How about accepting anything can happen, and no one knows what/ when. So a correction might be due, but when and how much? If one doesnt know exactly than its just wasted words. I stongly believe that most companies in sp 500 will be worth more years down the road then they are today. That is my investment premise and it doesnt chnage regardless of what might be happening on a given day.
We speak the same language, but most people out there don't understand it. The idea of having 50%~95% of your money invested in TSM is foreign to them.
456M
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 456M »

Keenobserver wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:43 am
456M wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:19 am I'm starting to think there's just too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip. It appears the market has no plans for a proper correction without something to instill a little fear. Maybe the t word will do the trick?
Isnt it much simpler and energy effiecient to just stay invested and keep contributing as per invesment statement? No need to worry about the nuisances. I would have been out of the market long ago if I listened to the " experts." If market does well then there is a " bubble" be ready for a crash. If market is going down, OmG we are headed for a crash. How about accepting anything can happen, and no one knows what/ when. So a correction might be due, but when and how much? If one doesnt know exactly than its just wasted words. I stongly believe that most companies in sp 500 will be worth more years down the road then they are today. That is my investment premise and it doesnt chnage regardless of what might be happening on a given day.
I'm 100% invested with no intentions of selling. Given all the news chatter and expectations of a correction from the experts, I'm merely sharing my observations.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:59 am
456M wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:53 am
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
Just remind me when to sell before all this calamity you see in your crystal ball transpires.
The crystal ball is currently saying to sell in just over two months.

That’s plenty of time for the “forecast” to change multiple more times.
This is why I use trailing stop orders. If there is a correction I know I will get ~85% of the highest price since I placed the order.

Of course what to do after the order activates requires wisdom and insight. Probably more of both than I have. :oops:
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
As a public service to the uninitiated, I repeat:
vanbogle59 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm Brought to you by...
"Memory - better than guessing"
Forester wrote: Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:41 am Ominous double top formation... this thread won't see 170 pages for a very long time. Now that the ATH was breached the mania wears off and introspection begins. SPX 3,400 waits for another year (decade?).
How many times can one person be wrong?
There are many, many other examples, but I'm lazy.
Caveat lector.
Toadie
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Toadie »

vanbogle59 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:23 am
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
As a public service to the uninitiated, I repeat:
vanbogle59 wrote: Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm Brought to you by...
"Memory - better than guessing"
Forester wrote: Thu Aug 20, 2020 5:41 am Ominous double top formation... this thread won't see 170 pages for a very long time. Now that the ATH was breached the mania wears off and introspection begins. SPX 3,400 waits for another year (decade?).
How many times can one person be wrong?
There are many, many other examples, but I'm lazy.
Caveat lector.
I sometimes wonder if Forester is a really clever AI, designed to make confident financial predictions at random. I've only been on the boards a half a year or so, but I like to imagine that his early predictions read like some of those AI-designed recipes: Beothurtreed Tuna Pie, Good Wine Drained Chili and such. Over time he's come to sound much more realistic!
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Kinda surprised to see the soaring return so quickly. I wonder when we're going to get an extended streak of red?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bugleheadd »

rchmx1 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:38 am Kinda surprised to see the soaring return so quickly. I wonder when we're going to get an extended streak of red?
maybe after we hit new all time highs, markets will go down again
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Candor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Candor »

rchmx1 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:38 am Kinda surprised to see the soaring return so quickly. I wonder when we're going to get an extended streak of red?
We've had what 2-3 weeks in the red and this is one day. Movements in one direction or another are not usually in a straight line, there are a lot of head fakes along the way. But since we're heading to 4800 in the next couple of months I'm none too worried for now.
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

I don't understand this market. Freaking out -1.7% on Evergrande then buying 1.2% right before the FOMC seems crazy to me.
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Candor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Candor »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:03 am
Stinky wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:59 am
456M wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:53 am
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
Just remind me when to sell before all this calamity you see in your crystal ball transpires.
The crystal ball is currently saying to sell in just over two months.

That’s plenty of time for the “forecast” to change multiple more times.
This is why I use trailing stop orders. If there is a correction I know I will get ~85% of the highest price since I placed the order.

Of course what to do after the order activates requires wisdom and insight. Probably more of both than I have. :oops:
Yes, trailing stops are good in theory but can be difficult in practice. I haven't used one since probably ~2000 but I remember they had a nasty habit of barely triggering and then the stock shooting straight back up. :oops:
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

CurlyDave wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:03 am
Stinky wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:59 am
456M wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:53 am
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
Just remind me when to sell before all this calamity you see in your crystal ball transpires.
The crystal ball is currently saying to sell in just over two months.

That’s plenty of time for the “forecast” to change multiple more times.
This is why I use trailing stop orders. If there is a correction I know I will get ~85% of the highest price since I placed the order.

Of course what to do after the order activates requires wisdom and insight. Probably more of both than I have. :oops:
I use stop loss order for my individual bet stocks to lock in gains..that just small % of my investment and helps sctrach the itch. I leave my indexed stuff alone. Stop loss actually worked well for me in FEb..locked in gains for riskier stocks and some still are far below what I sold at.
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:07 am I don't understand this market. Freaking out -1.7% on Evergrande then buying 1.2% right before the FOMC seems crazy to me.
It's almost like it's hard to know which direction the drunkard will step next on his random walk?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

vanbogle59 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:22 am It's almost like it's hard to know which direction the drunkard will step next on his random walk?
Yeah, this is why we're Bogleheads though. Markets don't have to make sense, they just need to go up long-term.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:26 am
vanbogle59 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:22 am It's almost like it's hard to know which direction the drunkard will step next on his random walk?
Yeah, this is why we're Bogleheads though. Markets don't have to make sense, they just need to go up long-term.
Yep. We're up 12% over six months and about 33% since pre-pandemic highs. If you would have clubbed me in the head and put me in a coma in February 2020 and woke me up now, explained what happened with the pandemic and told me the markets are up 33%, I'd be very pleasantly surprised.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

Short term: voting machine, long term: weighing machine
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

slow taper in progress?
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

lostdog wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 12:05 pm slow taper in progress?

Looks like it and it is your fault. :D We haven't heard of any gym visits lately.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peppers »

The Oracle of the Fed speaks today at 2:30 p.m. EST.

It could be interesting.
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jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

FT: 3 interest rate raises in 2023 as part of tapering. So we can still party like 1999 for 1 more year :twisted:
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Giant jump the last 5 minutes. Strange.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by livesoft »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:10 pm Giant jump the last 5 minutes. Strange.
Maybe not. Perhaps the text of Powell's upcoming speech were released? I don't know.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Silk McCue »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:10 pm Giant jump the last 5 minutes. Strange.
The Fed.

Cheers
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 1:10 pm Giant jump the last 5 minutes. Strange.
The announcement from Fed is expecting 6-7 hikes from 2023 - 2024, showing optimism on economic recovery but won't taper right of way. I'm guessing traders like that they have some runway before tapering really starts. Also, Forrester already dictated that we'll hit another ATH before the big drop so market is just following his prediction. :twisted:
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jason2459
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Yep, fed. Rates remaining near or at 0
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

I was on the elliptical during market close. I couldn't stop the taper.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
So the Q4 crash is still on? Will you be selling in November?
bugleheadd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bugleheadd »

So fed want to start tapering this November...
Interest rate increases next year

Stocks no go soaring anymore?
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

000 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:11 pm
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
So the Q4 crash is still on? Will you be selling in November?
He'll be selling once it hits 4800.. Pay attention!

(He's really bad at this BECAUSE he keeps putting numbers into his predictions... He may indeed be an AI experiment, because a human being would have learned much faster than this to just make general predictions without specifics)
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

000 wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:11 pm
Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:26 am This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
So the Q4 crash is still on? Will you be selling in November?
It would be foolish to sell, between the vagaries of precise timing and cash losing to inflation, one should maintain a balanced portfolio and take their lumps on the chin.

I personally guarantee that the top will be in, Q3 to Q4 this year.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:58 pm It would be foolish to sell, between the vagaries of precise timing and cash losing to inflation, one should maintain a balanced portfolio and take their lumps on the chin.

I personally guarantee that the top will be in, Q3 to Q4 this year.
Alrighty then.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

Forester wrote: Wed Sep 22, 2021 8:58 pm I personally guarantee that the top will be in, Q3 to Q4 this year.
Oh, no you don't. It's Q3, like you said, or walk of shame. Tick tock.
Forester wrote: Tue Aug 10, 2021 10:55 am The next bear market - which is starting in Q3 this year
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Rumors CCP nationalization of Evergrande is basically a done deal. I guess the financial crisis will be averted although some shops will feel some pain. I predict ATH in the near future!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Futures very green so far. CNBC analyst says we have a good head n shoulders pattern….so obviously this means ATH soon.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

mrspock wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:40 am Futures very green so far. CNBC analyst says we have a good head n shoulders pattern….so obviously this means ATH soon.
Still looking green and good less then an hour before the open. :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sailaway »

mrspock wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:40 am Futures very green so far. CNBC analyst says we have a good head n shoulders pattern….so obviously this means ATH soon.
The stock market has dandruff?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Crossing fingers there is no slow and steady taper down again. This seems like the pattern lately.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fanmail »

2.6% above Monday's low
2.6% below all time high earlier this month
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by goodenyou »

Fire up the “Can I Retire Now?” threads.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

goodenyou wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:47 am Fire up the “Can I Retire Now?” threads.
ha! I've been seeing a lot of those pop up lately.
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