What we’ve got here is failure to communicate. Some men you just can’t reach. ..
-Captain, Cool Hand Luke.
The problem is knowing what is easy and what isn't.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:03 amThis is not really true. Some aspects of the future are easy to predict.
For instance, it is possible to predict the number of students who will enter high school in 2031 with great accuracy. Why? Because every single child who will enter high school then is alive today. Count them up and make some corrections for deaths, immigration, etc., and it is an easy prediction.
Other parts of the future are harder to predict...
What is happening around you?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
If I recall correctly, it was about the same last year. Slow bleed in September and October, then the market shot up in November and December. I keep reminding myself it's good because I have a bunch of $$ coming soon lol.
Yea but back then the market was not being boosted.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pmYour concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
Well, I think he said it about the same time Washington was crossing the Delaware, so...
I'm not disagreeing. I just don't know what to do with the information.
The market has doubled in 5 years (or less) MANY MANY times in the past. Even before the Fed existed. And certainly before Quantitative Easing was a thing.namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:35 pmDJIA 17,000 -> 35,000 in 5 years?
Yup.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
Yep. Safe bets are safe until they're not or except when they weren't safe bets to begin with.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:21 amThe problem is knowing what is easy and what isn't.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 11:03 am This is not really true. Some aspects of the future are easy to predict.
For instance, it is possible to predict the number of students who will enter high school in 2031 with great accuracy. Why? Because every single child who will enter high school then is alive today. Count them up and make some corrections for deaths, immigration, etc., and it is an easy prediction.
Other parts of the future are harder to predict...
For example, 3 years ago, I would have said it's easy to predict how many kids would get bussed to LA schools in 2020.
I would have been wrong by about 90%.
Moreover, when it comes to predicting profit opportunities in stock prices, you have to be able to accurately predict what others are NOT predicting.
Otherwise, "it's already priced in".
I went back to double check, and yes, last year was the same (hopefully the rest of the year will also be the same):
New paradigms call for new strategies.
I have no idea what that link has to do with "timing the market successfully"anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:59 pmNew paradigms call for new strategies.
https://twitter.com/WSJmarkets/status/1 ... 8607360005
Man. I came here to read about stocks soaring and this is what I got. I want my money back.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pmYea but back then the market was not being boosted.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pmYour concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
I stand by my statement.
And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
Pulling out of stocks in early 2008 was absolutely not a correct decision unless you earned more than stocks did since 2008. Did you?anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:03 amBased on that prediction, I backed out of buying a house in 2004. That turned out to be the correct decision. I also pulled out of stocks in early '08. Also a correct decision. I bought a house in 2015. Also well timed. The big thing I didn't do was get back in the market. I really wanted to make it using fixed income only (Zvi Bodie), but the fed's policies have killed that approach.
Right now the stock market will keep going up but the entire market is broken -- no price discovery and now we are soon going to be seeing major shortages. Stocks at all time high but store shelves and car dealerships empty. It reminds me of my time in Nigeria in the early 80's.
I think we move sideways to slightly up until stimulus passes. Depending on size we could go up like a gentle slope or up vertically (3.5t would produce a vertical climb). If that passes, I'm going all in with my 401k.
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:08 pmPulling out of stocks in early 2008 was absolutely not a correct decision unless you earned more than stocks did since 2008. Did you?anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:03 amBased on that prediction, I backed out of buying a house in 2004. That turned out to be the correct decision. I also pulled out of stocks in early '08. Also a correct decision. I bought a house in 2015. Also well timed. The big thing I didn't do was get back in the market. I really wanted to make it using fixed income only (Zvi Bodie), but the fed's policies have killed that approach.
Right now the stock market will keep going up but the entire market is broken -- no price discovery and now we are soon going to be seeing major shortages. Stocks at all time high but store shelves and car dealerships empty. It reminds me of my time in Nigeria in the early 80's.
I think we move sideways to slightly up until stimulus passes. Depending on size we could go up like a gentle slope or up vertically (3.5t would produce a vertical climb). If that passes, I'm going all in with my 401k.
You say the big thing you didn't do was get back into the market. That is a pretty big thing. You will rationalize and say that you got out and it was the right decision, but you need to be right twice to successfully time the market. Good luck with that.
You have shown that you cannot successfully time the market. None of us can. If somebody does one time, it's sheer luck. I won't tell you to pick an AA that you're comfortable with because I don't think you're comfortable with any AA. You need to pick an AA that you can tolerate in all market conditions are are least likely to mess around with. Maybe it's 25% stocks. I don't know. I do know that the best thing you can do is pick an AA, ANY AA, and hold it. Stop trying to predict. Stop pontificating. Stop thinking. Just buy and hold.
SPDR S&P Health Care Equipment (XHE) continues to soar!Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:04 pm Man. I came here to read about stocks soaring and this is what I got. I want my money back.
Does this mean you're selling all your equities and going to cash?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pmYea but back then the market was not being boosted.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pmYour concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
I stand by my statement.
And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
I never said it was not normal for the market to double. I said it would not of happened the past 14 years without the help, and in my opinion the foundation is very shaky.HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:47 pmThe market has doubled in 5 years (or less) MANY MANY times in the past. Even before the Fed existed. And certainly before Quantitative Easing was a thing.namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:35 pmDJIA 17,000 -> 35,000 in 5 years?
Yup.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
No idea why you guys think this is unprecedented. This is normal... This is how the market works.
And yes, there will be a crash or bad decade. That's normal too. That is how the market works as well.
And the long-term average, so far, is still 9%-10% even though the market sometimes crashes, because it ALSO sometimes doubles in 4-5 years.
I don’t think many people here invest money in equities that they’ll need within a year, so it doesn’t much matter where the Dow will be.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:42 pmI never said it was not normal for the market to double. I said it would not of happened the past 14 years without the help, and in my opinion the foundation is very shaky.HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:47 pmThe market has doubled in 5 years (or less) MANY MANY times in the past. Even before the Fed existed. And certainly before Quantitative Easing was a thing.namajones wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:35 pmDJIA 17,000 -> 35,000 in 5 years?
Yup.
https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
No idea why you guys think this is unprecedented. This is normal... This is how the market works.
And yes, there will be a crash or bad decade. That's normal too. That is how the market works as well.
And the long-term average, so far, is still 9%-10% even though the market sometimes crashes, because it ALSO sometimes doubles in 4-5 years.
I am certain many here believe the Dow will be in the 40,000 plus within a year.
Maybe it will.
Trust me that nobody should care what I do.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:31 pmDoes this mean you're selling all your equities and going to cash?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pmYea but back then the market was not being boosted.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pmYour concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
I stand by my statement.
And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
If you hold zero equities, then why are you so worried about equities?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:06 pmTrust me that nobody should care what I do.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:31 pmDoes this mean you're selling all your equities and going to cash?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pmYea but back then the market was not being boosted.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pmYour concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
I stand by my statement.
And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
I will tell you just so everyone can get a good laugh at what I did do.
As I approached retirement 6 or 7 years ago,I was obsessed with sequence of returns risk, so I had my number and went in to full protection mode. Zero stocks.
A lot of brokered Cds. I bought a 10 yr. CD 200,000 paying 3.4 that still has 3 1/2 years left. Some very high quality Corp bonds like a 7 year Microsoft paying 3.125. Anyway, I have been averaging about. 3.2 on all our fixed income and about 47K a year in interest,all in IRA’s, except for a couple great GO muni’s and our I bonds.
So I am content. Do I wish I had been heavy into stocks? Not really because the market could have gone the other way.
I recently bought a couple MYGA’s to replace some matured CD’s.
I start my full SS at 70 very soon. We are good.
As my stuff matures I will be buying some stocks again now that SS pays all of our basic expenses.
HmmUpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:31 pmIf you hold zero equities, then why are you so worried about equities?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 3:06 pmTrust me that nobody should care what I do.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 2:31 pmDoes this mean you're selling all your equities and going to cash?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 1:34 pmYea but back then the market was not being boosted.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:45 pm
Your concern is not without merit. Neither is it new.
Some guy named Smith said something similar a while back: “There is a great deal of ruin in a nation”
I stand by my statement.
And yes there are a lot of companies making money. There always are.
There are stores and restaurants with people, just like almost always.
I will spare the thread from the list of ruins which in my opinion is unprecedented,new and without a fix unless there are drastic changes which cannot be discussed here.
I will tell you just so everyone can get a good laugh at what I did do.
As I approached retirement 6 or 7 years ago,I was obsessed with sequence of returns risk, so I had my number and went in to full protection mode. Zero stocks.
A lot of brokered Cds. I bought a 10 yr. CD 200,000 paying 3.4 that still has 3 1/2 years left. Some very high quality Corp bonds like a 7 year Microsoft paying 3.125. Anyway, I have been averaging about. 3.2 on all our fixed income and about 47K a year in interest,all in IRA’s, except for a couple great GO muni’s and our I bonds.
So I am content. Do I wish I had been heavy into stocks? Not really because the market could have gone the other way.
I recently bought a couple MYGA’s to replace some matured CD’s.
I start my full SS at 70 very soon. We are good.
As my stuff matures I will be buying some stocks again now that SS pays all of our basic expenses.
Yep. But the question remains if there will be a good entry point for cash hoarders or will this thing just go onward and upward to nominal infinity? I think the former will probably come true but only for a narrow window. Those hoarding cash hoping to buy low better have nerves of steel and actually get in before the value of their cash evaporates.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
The beauty of placing limit orders.000 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 7:20 pmYep. But the question remains if there will be a good entry point for cash hoarders or will this thing just go onward and upward to nominal infinity? I think the former will probably come true but only for a narrow window. Those hoarding cash hoping to buy low better have nerves of steel and actually get in before the value of their cash evaporates.hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
I wish someone would ask the Fed this question. They're still taking emergency measures (ZIRP, QE, etc.).HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:44 pmWhat is happening around you?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
They don't get out much. They are data driven.HanSolo wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 9:49 pmI wish someone would ask the Fed this question. They're still taking emergency measures (ZIRP, QE, etc.).HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:44 pmWhat is happening around you?hoops777 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 14, 2021 12:35 pm What worries me is where would the stock market actually be if it had been left on its own the past 14 years.
When I look at what is happening around me, it just does not seem like a time when stocks should be soaring.
The stock market to me is like a house built with sub standard materials and poor workmanship, but looks nice on the surface.
I, too, do not know what emergency they're seeing. Maybe they don't get out much and look at the real world.
$MSFT $60B buyback.
Meanwhile, VXUS is slightly in the red.
Yeah, Evergrande's debt liability is almost 2% of China's GDP, it's one of their too big to fail company. Will be interesting to see how much govt intervention we'll see there.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 12:35 pmYeah, Nikkei was red y'day and I believe there are concerns of Evergrande (a big Chinese company) going under.
First Friday of the year it was 3824
I think we all prefer to buy them below 2000 and then when retirement hits, we can sell them above 5000. We can all dream
It's so silly and inconsequential. My post from last week: viewtopic.php?p=6219666#p6219666
Just as some like to say dividends give you nothing, buybacks give you nothing. The upside is you own a slightly larger percentage of the company. The downside is the company you own now has $60B less that before.
Microsoft has contributed less than 10% to the S&P 500's increase today. It makes up 5.7% of the index. It's increase is 1.67% today vs. 0.90% for the index. It's just a regular, run of the mill trading day.
Yep. Just buy the haystack and chill.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 2:37 pmMicrosoft has contributed less than 10% to the S&P 500's increase today. It makes up 5.7% of the index. It's increase is 1.67% today vs. 0.90% for the index. It's just a regular, run of the mill trading day.
You guys are always looking for reasons to explain why the market does what it does. Accept that you have no idea.
The way I understand it is that the buybacks are done from earnings and are instead of paying a higher dividend. Many investors prefer buybacks to dividends because of their tax advantages.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed Sep 15, 2021 4:17 pm Are all the tech buyback because they have no place good to use the money to grow?? Or that these companies are just so insanely profitable that they have too much money left over even after investing in the business?