I have a feeling that it has something to do with pending policy decisions, buybacks, and taxes, but we can't discuss those here. If you're really curious, you'll just have to rev up the ol' search engines yourself!
U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I only own it to pair with the S&P 500 holdings I acquired during tax loss harvesting in March 2020 when I sold a bunch of Total Stock. The truth is, however, that I have always owned Extended Market without seeing it, because Total Stock has always been my primary fund, and Extended Market is part of Total Stock.Beensabu wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:58 pmDo you believe in the diversifying attributes of your poor forsaken asset class? I might have have a spare drumstick lying around here.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 10:22 pmI hold Extended Market, and it did even worse than international and bonds today.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:45 pmMe neither. I hold all the underperformers like international and bonds. What a loser!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Keep calm but I would not listen to someone who says this market is an opportunity to buy on the cheap.This market is not cheap by any means.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Err, what? So you're suggesting the OP to just hold onto cash and wait for a correction? You realize they have extra cash to deploy, right?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:34 pmErr, what? So you're suggesting the OP to just hold onto cash and wait for a correction? You realize they have extra cash to deploy, right?
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Sure, that's fair; though the point of DCA is to eventually get to your desired allocation. If they're 30/70 and their desired AA is 60/40, that's where they should stop DCAing. Rushing to invest every dollar wasn't what I meant to suggest.hoops777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pm What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:54 pmSure, that's fair; though the point of DCA is to eventually get to your desired allocation. If they're 30/70 and their desired AA is 60/40, that's where they should stop DCAing. Rushing to invest every dollar wasn't what I meant to suggest.hoops777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pm What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
K.I.S.S........so easy to say so difficult to do.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's not cheap, but it's also not as expensive as people think, Nucleus Wealth has a good article explaining how tax policy & stock buy-backs basically broke the Shiller PE & PE ratios in general. Secondly, the market is forward looking, it's saying it believes earnings and/or inflation is going to be higher in the future. If this prediction ends up being wrong, the market will eventually correct accordingly. So far, the market has not been wrong: it was as high as 40 in December 2020, and dropped to just 30 by March, we now sit around 35. Given the ATHs, this obviously means earnings grew per the market's forward looking predictions.hoops777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pmWhat I clearly said is this market is not cheap.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:34 pmErr, what? So you're suggesting the OP to just hold onto cash and wait for a correction? You realize they have extra cash to deploy, right?
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
Honestly, just last year investors had their chance to buy sub-20 PE stocks, most investors either got greedy or scared and couldn't pull the trigger (I'll bet most couldn't even bring themselves to rebalance [!!!] per their IPS). The reality is these "cheap PEs" don't exist in an environment where most investors have the guts to take advantage of them, so it's a nice fairytale to tell yourself how you'd take advantage of low PEs... but for most it's just that -- a fairytale. Low PEs happen when the world feels like it's going to collapse, look in the mirror and ask yourself if that's an environment you are willing to bet your nest egg in -- or even sell a dime worth of bonds to buy equities? Instead, I'd recommend being thankful for the existing investing/economic conditions and stick with your AA + DCA'ing.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If one is 30/70 and desired AA is 60/40, they wouldn't slowly move money. They'd get to 60/40 immediately.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:54 pmSure, that's fair; though the point of DCA is to eventually get to your desired allocation. If they're 30/70 and their desired AA is 60/40, that's where they should stop DCAing. Rushing to invest every dollar wasn't what I meant to suggest.hoops777 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 1:51 pm What I clearly said is this market is not cheap.
The only thing cheap about it is the advice.
I do know there are a large number of very successful financial professionals who are not opposed to having some cash and not rushing to invest every dollar in the market.
What you're referring to is someone who is 30/70 but doesn't want to be at 60/40 for some period of time for some unknown reason.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351
The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump
In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump
In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
How accurate is your prediction?Forester wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351
The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump
In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So September is "draft season" for corporate bonds? You learn something new every day.Forester wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's hard to tell if you're really worried about DCA or just joking around. As I mentioned several times, a crash is actually good for the DCA camp.
If you are *really* concerned, then maybe whatever AA you have currently is the maximum risk you should be taking, and that you might want to hold the allocation.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
A crash in and of itself is good for anybody accumulating and not drawing from their portfolios. Of course, if a crash comes with high unemployment, low wages, etc then it can be a different story. But let's forget those ancillary effects for the purposes of this discussion.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:36 pmIt's hard to tell if you're really worried about DCA or just joking around. As I mentioned several times, a crash is actually good for the DCA camp.
If you are *really* concerned, then maybe whatever AA you have currently is the maximum risk you should be taking, and that you might want to hold the allocation.
I hold 80/20. In a crash I'd rebalance and get stocks cheap. I'd also get them cheap with my new contributions.
I always find it amusing how much accumulators often seem to prefer to pay higher prices. I won't be drawing from my portfolio for at least 10 years and more than likely 20 years. If the next decade is like the last, it'll be 10 years no problem. Why in the world would I want prices to be high?
For retirees who are concerned or don't have a ton of extra cash in their portfolios (say 20-25x and not 35x), they should hold something like 60/40 which is 10 years in bonds anyway. So, in a crash, you either rebalance and get cheap stocks or you spend from bonds until back in balance, which will likely be years.
A crash is good, or at the very least not bad, for accumulators and those who hold reasonably allocated portfolios.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Since most are talking crash including this thread, the opposite will happen.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You and I are on the same page.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:56 pm A crash in and of itself is good for anybody accumulating and not drawing from their portfolios. Of course, if a crash comes with high unemployment, low wages, etc then it can be a different story. But let's forget those ancillary effects for the purposes of this discussion.
I hold 80/20. In a crash I'd rebalance and get stocks cheap. I'd also get them cheap with my new contributions.
I always find it amusing how much accumulators often seem to prefer to pay higher prices. I won't be drawing from my portfolio for at least 10 years and more than likely 20 years. If the next decade is like the last, it'll be 10 years no problem. Why in the world would I want prices to be high?
For retirees who are concerned or don't have a ton of extra cash in their portfolios (say 20-25x and not 35x), they should hold something like 60/40 which is 10 years in bonds anyway. So, in a crash, you either rebalance and get cheap stocks or you spend from bonds until back in balance, which will likely be years.
A crash is good, or at the very least not bad, for accumulators and those who hold reasonably allocated portfolios.
I was a bit concerned because the poster newyorker has posted repeatedly how they worry about a crash. I don't know their AA but if they are so concerned then perhaps it's time to hold steady and stop DCAing. Personal finance is personal.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Agreed. I'd recommend a permanent AA change to something more conservative.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:02 pmYou and I are on the same page.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 5:56 pm A crash in and of itself is good for anybody accumulating and not drawing from their portfolios. Of course, if a crash comes with high unemployment, low wages, etc then it can be a different story. But let's forget those ancillary effects for the purposes of this discussion.
I hold 80/20. In a crash I'd rebalance and get stocks cheap. I'd also get them cheap with my new contributions.
I always find it amusing how much accumulators often seem to prefer to pay higher prices. I won't be drawing from my portfolio for at least 10 years and more than likely 20 years. If the next decade is like the last, it'll be 10 years no problem. Why in the world would I want prices to be high?
For retirees who are concerned or don't have a ton of extra cash in their portfolios (say 20-25x and not 35x), they should hold something like 60/40 which is 10 years in bonds anyway. So, in a crash, you either rebalance and get cheap stocks or you spend from bonds until back in balance, which will likely be years.
A crash is good, or at the very least not bad, for accumulators and those who hold reasonably allocated portfolios.
I was a bit concerned because the poster newyorker has posted repeatedly how they worry about a crash. I don't know their AA but if they are so concerned then perhaps it's time to hold steady and stop DCAing. Personal finance is personal.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No one knows how accurate this new prediction is yet.newyorker wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:03 pmHow accurate is your prediction?Forester wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351
The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump
In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
A more useful question (because it actually has an answer) might be "how accurate were your past predictions?"
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Forester just needed to renew the "Forester affect."
The opposite happens most of the time...
The opposite happens most of the time...
Last edited by lostdog on Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:52 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Accurate? haha... has he ever been right? And he broke a promise to not post on the Freefall thread if his prediction did not pan out.HomerJ wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:43 pmNo one knows how accurate this new prediction is yet.newyorker wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:03 pmHow accurate is your prediction?Forester wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351
The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump
In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
A more useful question (because it actually has an answer) might be "how accurate were your past predictions?"
My prediction is he will continue to make useless predictions and some day will get lucky and get one right (the proverbial broken clock). It's inevitable.
ThereAreNoGurus wrote: ↑Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:57 pmForrester on Jan 27thviewtopic.php?p=5766473#p5766473Final official prediction. I will not post in this thread again if I am proved mistaken.
S&P 500 - has topped for the short & medium term. Not going above 3,800.
*LOL*
Trade the news and you will lose.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Forester's links are always fabulous, though. I always learn something new and interesting that has absolutely nothing to do with whatever the newest prediction is. It's great.HomerJ wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 6:43 pmNo one knows how accurate this new prediction is yet.newyorker wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 4:03 pmHow accurate is your prediction?Forester wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:48 pm The story of the present & past bubble; 'A record number of U.S. companies storm bond market Tuesday to borrow' https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-rec ... 1631049351
The story of the forthcoming bust; 'China property market rocked as Evergrande struggles to repay $300bn debts' https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... hare-slump
In 2007 stories of speculative mania and of stress existed at the same time. I expect to announce the end of this stock market bubble very soon, weeks rather than months.
A more useful question (because it actually has an answer) might be "how accurate were your past predictions?"
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes. Continue to build personal wealth and use your brokerage account as a savings account to build (what Bob Brinker called) critical mass so that ups/downs (noise) matter very little. For instance, I hold VTSAX in a taxable fund and use as a savings account as needed. It just so happens that I really have had no reason to spend any funds from it.
-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The article was a critique of Shiller PE and not "PE ratios in general".mrspock wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:19 pm It's not cheap, but it's also not as expensive as people think, Nucleus Wealth has a good article explaining how tax policy & stock buy-backs basically broke the Shiller PE & PE ratios in general.
While the article made some points about Shiller PE, which is currently about 2 times past averages, it says nothing about how some other valuation metrics are also about 2 times past averages (price-to-sales, price-to-book, market-cap-to-GDP, etc.).
One thing that's never different is that there's always no shortage of articles saying that this time is different.
Cheap PEs did exist in the environment of 30 years ago. If you're saying that what's different this time is that investors are more gutsy than 30 years ago, I suppose that might be true, but I'm not sure that can be objectively measured. Even if people are objectively accepting more risk than before, it's unclear that "guts" are what's behind it. For example, it could be argued that it's simply herd mentality, which is not exactly indicative of guts.The reality is these "cheap PEs" don't exist in an environment where most investors have the guts to take advantage of them,
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Perhaps you have forgotten what was going on 30 years ago, but let me help: Gulf War I, the deficit tripled, a deep recession in 1991 followed by a very slow recovery. It was also very in vogue to be an international investor back then — particularly in Japan and many people lost a lot of money once the entire house of cards collapsed (PEs reaching 90 or so at the peak in the late 80s).HanSolo wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:35 pmThe article was a critique of Shiller PE and not "PE ratios in general".mrspock wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:19 pm It's not cheap, but it's also not as expensive as people think, Nucleus Wealth has a good article explaining how tax policy & stock buy-backs basically broke the Shiller PE & PE ratios in general.
While the article made some points about Shiller PE, which is currently about 2x past averages, it says nothing about how some other valuation metrics are also about 2x past averages (price-to-sales, price-to-book, market-cap-to-GDP, etc.).
One thing that's never different is that there's always no shortage of articles saying that this time is different.
Cheap PEs did exist in the environment of 30 years ago. If you're saying that what's different this time is that investors are more gutsy than 30 years ago, I suppose that might be true, but I'm not sure that can be objectively measured. Even if people are objectively accepting more risk than before, it's unclear that "guts" are what's behind it. For example, it could be argued that it's simply herd mentality, which is not exactly indicative of guts.The reality is these "cheap PEs" don't exist in an environment where most investors have the guts to take advantage of them,
Waiting some 30 years to put money in the market also doesn’t seem like a very workable plan.
My point stands: Most investors don’t have the mental discipline to invest during these periods. Some can barely bring themselves to invest during relatively calm periods such as now (telling themselves other suitable fairytales).
Last edited by mrspock on Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You seem to be correct. "Cheap PEs" exist in today's environment, just as they have in every environment. But most people prefer to overpay to some extent, just as they always have. Because if it's cheap, "it's cheap for a reason".
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No. I didn't forget anything. The above is all just business as usual.mrspock wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 2:03 pmPerhaps you have forgotten what was going on 30 years ago, but let me help: Gulf War I, the deficit tripled, a deep recession in 1991 followed by a very slow recovery,.HanSolo wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 1:35 pmThe article was a critique of Shiller PE and not "PE ratios in general".mrspock wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 2:19 pm It's not cheap, but it's also not as expensive as people think, Nucleus Wealth has a good article explaining how tax policy & stock buy-backs basically broke the Shiller PE & PE ratios in general.
While the article made some points about Shiller PE, which is currently about 2x past averages, it says nothing about how some other valuation metrics are also about 2x past averages (price-to-sales, price-to-book, market-cap-to-GDP, etc.).
One thing that's never different is that there's always no shortage of articles saying that this time is different.
Cheap PEs did exist in the environment of 30 years ago. If you're saying that what's different this time is that investors are more gutsy than 30 years ago, I suppose that might be true, but I'm not sure that can be objectively measured. Even if people are objectively accepting more risk than before, it's unclear that "guts" are what's behind it. For example, it could be argued that it's simply herd mentality, which is not exactly indicative of guts.The reality is these "cheap PEs" don't exist in an environment where most investors have the guts to take advantage of them,
Nobody suggested doing that.Waiting some 30 years to put money in the market also doesn’t seem like a very workable plan.
I take it you're talking about people who aren't on this forum.My point stands: Most investors don’t have the mental discipline to invest during these periods.
My point stands: the article you cited doesn't add any significant insights into whether the market is expensive or cheap. It's just another writer wanting to show how this time is different in some way or another.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo at the peak were worth more than the entire State of California. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japans-pal ... alifornia/
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
FANMAG is probably approaching that now.Nicolas wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 4:10 pmThe Imperial Palace grounds in Tokyo at the peak were worth more than the entire State of California. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/japans-pal ... alifornia/
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's FAAMG now. That's how it goes.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
What is FAAMG?
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It was FANG Then it was FAANG Then it was FAANG+M (or FANMAG, I suppose) Now it is FAAMG
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Deleted
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Or maybe replace Netflix with Nvidia so it remains as is.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Now I’m five times as confused.
Names please?
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm seeing green so far.
Will this hold or taper down? We will see.
Will this hold or taper down? We will see.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
looking good to start the week
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Whatever it is, it must be serious to explain this 1.15% decline from all time highs.cos wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:59 amI have a feeling that it has something to do with pending policy decisions, buybacks, and taxes, but we can't discuss those here. If you're really curious, you'll just have to rev up the ol' search engines yourself!
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I believe that secular bull ended in 2000 with 13 years of sideways market performance. How can a secular bull have over a decade of sideways in it and still be a bull? If the current secular bull is like the prior, we should expect a good 18 years or so, which would mean running until 2030 or so which is what I expect given record low interest rates and other government action. SP 500 over 6,000 by 2030 is my prediction, upwards of 10,000 wouldn't shock me.Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
Last edited by z3r0c00l on Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Another crazy tapering day, opened +0.75% and already +0.3% after 15 minutes.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think people are spoiled and forget that most years have at least a 5% pullback and the average is 14%, I believe.z3r0c00l wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:38 amWhatever it is, it must be serious to explain this 1.15% decline from all time highs.cos wrote: ↑Sat Sep 11, 2021 3:59 amI have a feeling that it has something to do with pending policy decisions, buybacks, and taxes, but we can't discuss those here. If you're really curious, you'll just have to rev up the ol' search engines yourself!
We haven't had a 5% or greater pullback in 2021. This is only the third year since 1995 that we haven't.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Taper is picking up speed.
Maybe the new mantra is "sell at the open, buy at the close".
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is actually known for quite some time. Gap up intraday down is quite common: https://justinczyszczewski.com/are-most ... overnight/
The problem is we don't know why this is happening and if the trend continues.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Fear not! Hidden in this prescient vision of the coming Thunderdome is a hidden gem.Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
We are going to 4,700 VERY SOON!!!!
SOAR ye eagles, SOAR!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Too optimistic in my opinion. Hard to see us going to -60% without dropping further (at least temporarily) to -80%+ due to panic selling and margin calls.Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
How long will it take to get back to new record highs after the bust?Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Classic permabear psychology. They never take advantage of the opportunity because they are worried about another little 20% drop.000 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 2:55 pmToo optimistic in my opinion. Hard to see us going to -60% without dropping further (at least temporarily) to -80%+ due to panic selling and margin calls.Forester wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 8:40 am The coming top, very likely by the end of the year, will mark the end of the secular bull market which began in Summer 1982. What follows will be a global bust, not a slowdown. The market could be down 60% by Summer 2022 then bounce back somewhat and SPX be around 2,000 to 2,400 at year end 2022.