U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Forester spoke, markets moved up.
Melt up today?
Melt up today?
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
- Doom&Gloom
- Posts: 5417
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If "be nimble" doesn't give you a big giggle on this website, then I'm not sure what to sayTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:06 amI don't even know what "be nimble" means in this context, but it sounds like it isn't a good idea. I just buy whatever is low in my AA, which has lately been bonds, and stay the course. I've been doing it for 14 years. My portfolio will be at another all-time high today.HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:32 amNo one has to be nimble. Just buy and hold and come back in 20 years.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:21 amUnemp beat. We have to be nimble in this market.Wanderingwheelz wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:09 amWoopsMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:25 pm NFP tomorrow will be bigly. Last month was a huge miss, people brushed off saying it was a blip. If NFP misses again then look out below.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think that the “nimble” gene wasn’t passed down to me.Doom&Gloom wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 1:23 pmIf "be nimble" doesn't give you a big giggle on this website, then I'm not sure what to sayTriple digit golfer wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:06 amI don't even know what "be nimble" means in this context, but it sounds like it isn't a good idea. I just buy whatever is low in my AA, which has lately been bonds, and stay the course. I've been doing it for 14 years. My portfolio will be at another all-time high today.HomerJ wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 10:32 amNo one has to be nimble. Just buy and hold and come back in 20 years.
In other news, the S&P is now within 8 points of all time high. That’s just a walk in the park in the last hour of a GREAT Friday.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I am detecting the beginnings of a Friday melt up.
A great way to end the day.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looking pretty nimble for the end of the week.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My nimbleness has me all atwitter
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
A disappointing finish. We hovered above ATH territory but couldn't even keep 4230 at close. The market wasn't nimble enough, a D+ day.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Not to mention that it underperformed VXUS. Very embarrassing.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:16 pm A disappointing finish. We hovered above ATH territory but couldn't even keep 4230 at close. The market wasn't nimble enough, a D+ day.
VTI +0.87%
VOO +0.91%
VXUS +0.96%
Of course, it goes without saying, they all got slaughtered by...
QQQ +1.70%
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Thank you for bringing it up. I had overlooked QQQ's perf today and I'm 50/50 VOO/QQQ. I can upgrade today's grade from D+ to C-.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:23 pmNot to mention that it underperformed VXUS. Very embarrassing.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:16 pm A disappointing finish. We hovered above ATH territory but couldn't even keep 4230 at close. The market wasn't nimble enough, a D+ day.
VTI +0.87%
VOO +0.91%
VXUS +0.96%
Of course, it goes without saying, they all got slaughtered by...
QQQ +1.70%
- Doom&Gloom
- Posts: 5417
- Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Tough crowd!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
QQQ is still lagging behind VOO YTD. It will be interesting to see how this year ends. I'm betting VOO wins given QQQs ridiculous performance last year. Like another poster, I'm close to 50/50 split between the two.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:23 pmNot to mention that it underperformed VXUS. Very embarrassing.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:16 pm A disappointing finish. We hovered above ATH territory but couldn't even keep 4230 at close. The market wasn't nimble enough, a D+ day.
VTI +0.87%
VOO +0.91%
VXUS +0.96%
Of course, it goes without saying, they all got slaughtered by...
QQQ +1.70%
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
SPY set ATH today at 422.92.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:16 pm A disappointing finish. We hovered above ATH territory but couldn't even keep 4230 at close. The market wasn't nimble enough, a D+ day.
We plan. G-d laughs.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Buying the dip worked out pretty well in those previous examples.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If Forester ever comes back to clarify or defend any of these predictions I must have missed it. It seems like he/she just throws them out there and disappears until the next one. Classic trolling imo.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If buying the dip doesn’t work, then did you really buy the dip?
- Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Remember when Forester said he would never post again in this thread if a certain thing happened within a certain timeline? It happened within a couple days. Had to do with S&P 500 closing price, I think. That was a classic!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Just like a golfer has to have a short memory, so do market predictors.Cheez-It Guy wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 6:45 pm Remember when Forester said he would never post again in this thread if a certain thing happened within a certain timeline? It happened within a couple days. Had to do with S&P 500 closing price, I think. That was a classic!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You are being too harsh. The Curly Family portfolio was up 1.7% today. That is an A+ in my book.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:27 pm
Thank you for bringing it up. I had overlooked QQQ's perf today and I'm 50/50 VOO/QQQ. I can upgrade today's grade from D+ to C-.
Even 50/50 VOO/QQQ should be pushing 1.3% on the day, which knocks the stuffing out of VXUS.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You're right. I'll curve grades and mark it as an A day.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 7:50 pmYou are being too harsh. The Curly Family portfolio was up 1.7% today. That is an A+ in my book.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 3:27 pm
Thank you for bringing it up. I had overlooked QQQ's perf today and I'm 50/50 VOO/QQQ. I can upgrade today's grade from D+ to C-.
Even 50/50 VOO/QQQ should be pushing 1.3% on the day, which knocks the stuffing out of VXUS.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I checked my retirement portfolio today, at or very, very close to all time highs. No complaints here.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
Contentment makes poor men rich, discontent makes rich men poor. -Benjamin Franklin
- firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
over the all time high here. Those catalytic converters I sawed off just pushed me over the finish line.
This time is the same
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Forester is listed as living in the UK. And he likes posting random Debbie downer missives apparently to gullible American investors? Tell me again why is anyone even giving him the time of day over his inane posts?Family Oaks wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Because it's fun?TheDDC wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:00 pmForester is listed as living in the UK. And he likes posting random Debbie downer missives apparently to gullible American investors? Tell me again why is anyone even giving him the time of day over his inane posts?Family Oaks wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
-TheDDC
- dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
And that's all this thread is about.
I'd feel bad about us poking fun at Forester, but he/she/her/him/his keeps playing the game.
Make sure you check out my list of certifications. The list is short, and there aren't any. - Eric 0. from SMA
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's mainly for fun and not serious.TheDDC wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:00 pmForester is listed as living in the UK. And he likes posting random Debbie downer missives apparently to gullible American investors? Tell me again why is anyone even giving him the time of day over his inane posts?Family Oaks wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
-TheDDC
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
At some point, he'll be right. He's just early. These PEs are still insane:TheDDC wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:00 pmForester is listed as living in the UK. And he likes posting random Debbie downer missives apparently to gullible American investors? Tell me again why is anyone even giving him the time of day over his inane posts?Family Oaks wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
-TheDDC
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/peyields
I'm hoping Q2 earnings bring them below 30x.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I enjoy the market spikes after every doomsday scenario.TheDDC wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:00 pmForester is listed as living in the UK. And he likes posting random Debbie downer missives apparently to gullible American investors? Tell me again why is anyone even giving him the time of day over his inane posts?Family Oaks wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
-TheDDC
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The timing is pretty ridiculous.ImUrHuckleberry wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:02 pmI enjoy the market spikes after every doomsday scenario.TheDDC wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:00 pmForester is listed as living in the UK. And he likes posting random Debbie downer missives apparently to gullible American investors? Tell me again why is anyone even giving him the time of day over his inane posts?Family Oaks wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
-TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Our strategy not panning out well. Maybe we need to do VOO/VXUS 50/50.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I approve.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:12 pmOur strategy not panning out well. Maybe we need to do VOO/VXUS 50/50.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It’s all in good fun. If someone truly gets offended by spouting market predictions and therefore told by others nobody knows anything, then they have not realized their words are the ramblings of a fool.lostdog wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 12:46 pmIt's mainly for fun and not serious.TheDDC wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:00 pmForester is listed as living in the UK. And he likes posting random Debbie downer missives apparently to gullible American investors? Tell me again why is anyone even giving him the time of day over his inane posts?Family Oaks wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
-TheDDC
Contentment makes poor men rich, discontent makes rich men poor. -Benjamin Franklin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
With the nickname Forester they still kept looking at the trees and missed the forest.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I know that I like to have fun with predictions. Some time ago, I pounded the table and doing my best Jim Cramer imitation hit the "buy" button and put out a "buy" recommendation for US Small Value, US Mid Value, and US Large Value. I had been recommending US Large Value before that, maybe since 2016. Too lazy to go through my old posts to get exact dates.TheDDC wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 11:00 pmForester is listed as living in the UK. And he likes posting random Debbie downer missives apparently to gullible American investors? Tell me again why is anyone even giving him the time of day over his inane posts?Family Oaks wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 8:51 pm Forester has a crystal ball they are using to read the future. It’s an accurate ball but there is one problem, it’s really only accurate when read inside a closet with the lights turned off, and given night vision won’t show it and people can’t see in the dark is it really accurate at all?
But then again a broken clock is right twice a day, right?
I know one thing is for sure, I know nothin!
I’m just going to sit back, relax, and index now!
-TheDDC
Certainly I have my convictions and certainly I have my opinions about the future. I realize, however that markets do what markets do regardless of my hopes, my dreams, my needs, my predictions. I also realize that I could be wrong. Though my portfolio has its tilts, I keep them relatively mild and my expectations modest.
Value seemed overdue for a bounce back, I had waited for it for years but the market stubbornly refused to cooperate with my portfolio construction. Finally, Value and particularly Small Value has made a comeback over the last year. I think my opinions will be vindicated but I have waited a long time. Markets have a way of teaching humility.
I am concerned about stock valuations here in the United States and thus I have relatively mild Value and Size tilts. I also have not given up on International stocks which are cheaper than here in the United States. Not predicting gloom for the U.S. in general and for U.S. Large Growth in particular, just seeing a reversion to the mean with U.S. Value, U.S. Small Cap and International Stocks.
Let's not be too hard on Forester, let's have a bit of fun with this and learn from the process.
A fool and his money are good for business.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You could always go VOO/QQQ/VXUS 33/33/33 and put the 1% remaining into some triple levered fund for fun;) I'm not jumping on the international bandwagon yet.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 05, 2021 1:12 pmOur strategy not panning out well. Maybe we need to do VOO/VXUS 50/50.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Funny! Though I was expecting a bad Subaru joke as the Subaru owner that I am.
-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
What do a Subaru transmission and Forester predictions have in common? They keeping failing over and over again! *badum teesh*
Thank you! Thank you! I'll be giving signatures at the exit.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Close on Friday:
U.S. S&P 500
4,229.89
+37.04 (0.88%)
Jun 4, 5:17 PM EDT
Looking forward to another great week.
U.S. S&P 500
4,229.89
+37.04 (0.88%)
Jun 4, 5:17 PM EDT
Looking forward to another great week.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looking forward to hearing the results of China’s trade data for May which is expected to be out at 11:00 a.m. HK/SIN on Monday.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
While there is a lot of chaff, there is also quite a bit of wheat in this thread. If investing isn't fun, we all ought to find something else to do.
This thread helps me stay on course.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Bill Dudley has quite the opinion piece today in Bloomberg. "The Fed Is Risking a Full-Blown Recession" link
He says the Fed's loose monetary policy "may be attractive now, because it provides more impetus to an economy recovering from the pandemic. But this benefit will come at a potentially high cost later..." He thinks that such loose policy will allow overheating to begin, which in turn "will require the Fed to increase interest rates much faster and further than it would if it started raising rates sooner."
If this plays out like he expects, I'm going to repost this in order to give myself a pat on the back for having posted about it. If it doesn't go as he expects, I'll just say, look at how dumb Bill Dudley was. Silly Billy. Trix are for kids. Either way, I win. *my left hand high fiving my right hand*
He says the Fed's loose monetary policy "may be attractive now, because it provides more impetus to an economy recovering from the pandemic. But this benefit will come at a potentially high cost later..." He thinks that such loose policy will allow overheating to begin, which in turn "will require the Fed to increase interest rates much faster and further than it would if it started raising rates sooner."
If this plays out like he expects, I'm going to repost this in order to give myself a pat on the back for having posted about it. If it doesn't go as he expects, I'll just say, look at how dumb Bill Dudley was. Silly Billy. Trix are for kids. Either way, I win. *my left hand high fiving my right hand*
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
For those of us who lived through the huge Fed tightening in the early 1980s that finally choked off the inflation of the late 1970s, this sounds pretty spooky.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 8:12 am Bill Dudley has quite the opinion piece today in Bloomberg. "The Fed Is Risking a Full-Blown Recession" link
He says the Fed's loose monetary policy "may be attractive now, because it provides more impetus to an economy recovering from the pandemic. But this benefit will come at a potentially high cost later..." He thinks that such loose policy will allow overheating to begin, which in turn "will require the Fed to increase interest rates much faster and further than it would if it started raising rates sooner."
I, for one, hope that it doesn’t come to this. The sharp recession in the early 1980s was not fun.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
US REIT index has been soaring. VNQ is up over 18.5% in the last 3 months vs ~8.5% for VTI (US Total Market). I wonder if this is due to inflation fears and a perceived relative safety of REITs during times of rising rates.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is going to be particularly shocking for the housing market, imagine suddenly going from 3% mortgage rates to 10+% rates... what exactly will happen to the state of Real Estate? Unthinkable in my opinion as even though 10% rates are historically high they aren't too far off from the long term historical mortgage rate average of 8ish % prior to 2008. We have been in such a strange interest rate environment for so incredibly long that even a reversion to the historical norm is going to be simply shocking.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I don't even think we have to get to 10+%. Somewhere around 5% we are going to start seeing "creative financing" pop up in real estate ads.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:59 amThis is going to be particularly shocking for the housing market, imagine suddenly going from 3% mortgage rates to 10+% rates... what exactly will happen to the state of Real Estate? Unthinkable in my opinion as even though 10% rates are historically high they aren't too far off from the long term historical mortgage rate average of 8ish % prior to 2008. We have been in such a strange interest rate environment for so incredibly long that even a reversion to the historical norm is going to be simply shocking.
Possibly there will be a lot of wealth destruction among homeowners.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I recall, less than fondly, the 30-year mortgage at 12% that I took out in 1981.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Mon Jun 07, 2021 11:59 amThis is going to be particularly shocking for the housing market, imagine suddenly going from 3% mortgage rates to 10+% rates... what exactly will happen to the state of Real Estate? Unthinkable in my opinion as even though 10% rates are historically high they aren't too far off from the long term historical mortgage rate average of 8ish % prior to 2008. We have been in such a strange interest rate environment for so incredibly long that even a reversion to the historical norm is going to be simply shocking.
Most folks in their prime home-buying years would revolt at the thought of paying more than ?? 5%? 7%?
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”