U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:18 am Is there a better word
decline
drop
pullback
correction
collapse
catastrophe
wipeout
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

000 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:57 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:18 am Is there a better word
decline
drop
pullback
correction
collapse
catastrophe
wipeout
To describe a small reduction in equity prices, I much prefer “decline” to “collapse” or “wipeout”. :D
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:02 pm To describe a small reduction in equity prices, I much prefer “decline” to “collapse” or “wipeout”. :D
I wanted to give lostdog a whole range of choices for future commentary, sorted by my perception of the magnitude of the terms. :mrgreen:

Just remembered another one: we can put 'annihilation' after wipeout. :twisted:
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:02 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:57 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:18 am Is there a better word
decline
drop
pullback
correction
collapse
catastrophe
wipeout
To describe a small reduction in equity prices, I much prefer “decline” to “collapse” or “wipeout”. :D
I prefer "swoon."
yog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by yog »

This is the soaring thread, not the souring thread.
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ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ResearchMed »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:10 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:02 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:57 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:18 am Is there a better word
decline
drop
pullback
correction
collapse
catastrophe
wipeout
To describe a small reduction in equity prices, I much prefer “decline” to “collapse” or “wipeout”. :D
I prefer "swoon."
Ah, does this one come with some smelling salts?
:wink:

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

ResearchMed wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:33 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:10 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:02 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:57 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:18 am Is there a better word
decline
drop
pullback
correction
collapse
catastrophe
wipeout
To describe a small reduction in equity prices, I much prefer “decline” to “collapse” or “wipeout”. :D
I prefer "swoon."
Ah, does this one come with some smelling salts?
:wink:

RM
Only if you want a quick recovery :wink:
drk
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

000 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:57 pm wipeout
As long as we can pull in some Web 1.0 tech to auto-play the song, this gets my vote.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:10 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:02 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:57 pm
lostdog wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 10:18 am Is there a better word
decline
drop
pullback
correction
collapse
catastrophe
wipeout
To describe a small reduction in equity prices, I much prefer “decline” to “collapse” or “wipeout”. :D
I prefer "swoon."
dip
lull
wane
siesta
breather

and my personal favorite...

the pause that refreshes
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:50 pm
ResearchMed wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:33 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:10 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:02 pm
000 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 3:57 pm

decline
drop
pullback
correction
collapse
catastrophe
wipeout
To describe a small reduction in equity prices, I much prefer “decline” to “collapse” or “wipeout”. :D
I prefer "swoon."
Ah, does this one come with some smelling salts?
:wink:

RM
Only if you want a quick recovery :wink:
LOL... We ALL want a quick recovery.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:13 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:50 pm
ResearchMed wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:33 pm
Doom&Gloom wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:10 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 4:02 pm

To describe a small reduction in equity prices, I much prefer “decline” to “collapse” or “wipeout”. :D
I prefer "swoon."
Ah, does this one come with some smelling salts?
:wink:

RM
Only if you want a quick recovery :wink:
LOL... We ALL want a quick recovery.
Well, you and I and many others do, but there are always some accumulators here rooting for lower prices because they are bargain hunting. They have more faith than I would if I were in their positions :wink:

For full disclosure re: my fondness for "swoon:" I have a "swoon" command for one of my dogs where he puts himself in a position for a belly rub while sitting. Scarlett O'Hara would be jealous of his theatrics :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:18 pm I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
Imo US TSM or S&P is the way to go. Tech appears sensitive to the yields. I don't think it should be but it is, so you need to plan accordingly.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:44 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:18 pm I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
Imo US TSM or S&P is the way to go. Tech appears sensitive to the yields. I don't think it should be but it is, so you need to plan accordingly.
At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:44 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:18 pm I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
Imo US TSM or S&P is the way to go. Tech appears sensitive to the yields. I don't think it should be but it is, so you need to plan accordingly.
At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
Maybe I'm not following, but isn't that a case to be made to hold onto tech when the yields rise, instead of dumping?
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Marseille07 wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:31 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:44 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:18 pm I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
Imo US TSM or S&P is the way to go. Tech appears sensitive to the yields. I don't think it should be but it is, so you need to plan accordingly.
At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
Maybe I'm not following, but isn't that a case to be made to hold onto tech when the yields rise, instead of dumping?
It is a case for not dumping extremely profitable tech companies with great balance sheets and strong earnings. Tech is so ubiquitous in the world now that saying Tech isn't very descriptive imho. I think most people consider Meta (Facebook), Alphabet (Google) and Amazon tech companies but if look in the XLK, the S&P Tech Sector ETF, you won't find them because they are considered to be in other sectors as of a couple years ago. Strangely, both Visa and Mastercard are in the Tech Sector ETF.

https://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/s ... /portfolio
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by canadianbacon »

Doom&Gloom wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:22 pm Well, you and I and many others do, but there are always some accumulators here rooting for lower prices because they are bargain hunting. They have more faith than I would if I were in their positions :wink:
"I want a magic recession where only other people lose their jobs and RSU values"; amazingly common on /r/financialindependence
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by drk »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:26 pm At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
:idea:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:44 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:18 pm I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
Imo US TSM or S&P is the way to go. Tech appears sensitive to the yields. I don't think it should be but it is, so you need to plan accordingly.
It's only half of my portfolio. The S&P 500 is also going to experience pain as well as it also has a big tech component. I'll think about changes to make if it breaches the 200 day moving average. I think, worse case is that it ends the year flat or slightly down. What should offset this sell off would be earnings. It feels premature to sell ahead of Q4 earnings.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:44 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:18 pm I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
Imo US TSM or S&P is the way to go. Tech appears sensitive to the yields. I don't think it should be but it is, so you need to plan accordingly.
At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
I can't tell if you're being tongue in cheek, or if you are envisioning a positive real rate on cash. Are you an advocate for having an allocation to cash? If so, then what amount?
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:14 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:44 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:18 pm I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
Imo US TSM or S&P is the way to go. Tech appears sensitive to the yields. I don't think it should be but it is, so you need to plan accordingly.
At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
I can't tell if you're being tongue in cheek, or if you are envisioning a positive real rate on cash. Are you an advocate for having an allocation to cash? If so, then what amount?
No, I am not talking about a cash allocation for investors, nor am I discussing the possibility of short term rates yielding a positive real return.
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:31 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 8:14 pm
TheTimeLord wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 12:26 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 11:44 pm
rockstar wrote: Fri Jan 07, 2022 8:18 pm I need some soaring. Half my portfolio is in QQQ. It hasn't hit the 200 day moving average yet. But it's not far. The good news is that I sold off my TQQQ position last year.
Imo US TSM or S&P is the way to go. Tech appears sensitive to the yields. I don't think it should be but it is, so you need to plan accordingly.
At some point look for some clever analyst to point out that rising interest rates allows Mega Tech companies like Apple, Microsoft and Google to start earning a return on their enormous cash hordes. Of course this applies to any company with a great balancesheet and a large cash horde but the majority of those are Mega Tech, although I believe I can think of at least one exception.
I can't tell if you're being tongue in cheek, or if you are envisioning a positive real rate on cash. Are you an advocate for having an allocation to cash? If so, then what amount?
No, I am not talking about a cash allocation for investors, nor am I discussing the possibility of short term rates yielding a positive real return.
Ok, thank you for clarifying.
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

canadianbacon wrote: Sat Jan 08, 2022 1:24 pm "I want a magic recession where only other people lose their jobs and RSU values"; amazingly common on /r/financialindependence
Been through 2 impressive ones plus covid. Can't argue with the concept of it.
This time is the same
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

JoMoney's 10 Year Capital market Assumptions 8-) :greedy

I made this for a different thread that got locked before I could post it, figured it might as well fit here,
Image
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SimpleGift
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SimpleGift »

JoMoney wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:51 pm JoMoney's 10 Year Capital market Assumptions...
Very interesting chart and presentation. Thank you.

It makes clear the run up of stocks in the 1960s (the Nifty Fifty era), followed by the crash and disappointment of the 1970s. Same for the run up in the 1990s during the tech boom, followed by the lost decade of the 2000s. An understanding of these periods of boom and bust should be indelibly imprinted on the mind of every buy-hold-rebalance investor.

Plus, from a historical perspective, your chart doesn't make today's market prices look all that extreme.
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

SimpleGift wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:05 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:51 pm JoMoney's 10 Year Capital market Assumptions...
Very interesting chart and presentation. Thank you.

It makes clear the run up of stocks in the 1960s (the Nifty Fifty era), followed by the crash and disappointment of the 1970s. Same for the run up in the 1990s during the tech boom, followed by the lost decade of the 2000s. An understanding of these periods of boom and bust should be indelibly imprinted on the mind of every buy-hold-rebalance investor.

Plus, from a historical perspective, your chart doesn't make today's market prices look all that extreme.
I find it interesting that even from prior market peaks, one could have gotten something close to the 7% real "Siegal Constant" (tag sometimes mockingly applied to Wharton Prof. Jeremy Siegel's Stocks For The Long Run chart) as long as they held out for the next boom. Similarly, from trough to subsequent trough/bust was roughly 7% real.
If one had managed to average their purchases (and sales) across a long period of time, experiencing some of each along the way, their aggregate resulting XIRR might very well have achieved something close to that 7% real all averaged together... even if the various high and low balances looked pretty extreme relative to each other.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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SimpleGift
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SimpleGift »

JoMoney wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:17 pm I find it interesting that even from prior market peaks, one could have gotten something close to the 7% real "Siegal Constant"...as long as they held out for the next boom. Similarly, from trough to subsequent trough/bust was roughly 7% real.
Interesting, too, that the respective peaks and troughs over the past century were roughly 30 years apart. As you say, a buy-and-hold investor would have done quite well — irregardless of when she bought into the market — but only if she stayed the course for at least three decades.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheoLeo »

JoMoney wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:51 pm JoMoney's 10 Year Capital market Assumptions 8-) :greedy

I made this for a different thread that got locked before I could post it, figured it might as well fit here,
Image
May this channel never bend.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

TheoLeo wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 3:58 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:51 pm JoMoney's 10 Year Capital market Assumptions 8-) :greedy

I made this for a different thread that got locked before I could post it, figured it might as well fit here,
Image
May this channel never bend.
Scary thing is that the market can drop more than 50% tomorrow and still be between the red lines.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:20 pm
TheoLeo wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 3:58 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:51 pm JoMoney's 10 Year Capital market Assumptions 8-) :greedy

I made this for a different thread that got locked before I could post it, figured it might as well fit here,
Image
May this channel never bend.
Scary thing is that the market can drop more than 50% tomorrow and still be between the red lines.
A range of -0.38% to 10.45% annual real returns for the next 10 years.

Sounds about right for most predictions.

i.e. anything could happen. Nobody knows nothing (or as I prefer, Nobody knows enough)
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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JoMoney
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

SimpleGift wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:39 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 2:17 pm I find it interesting that even from prior market peaks, one could have gotten something close to the 7% real "Siegal Constant"...as long as they held out for the next boom. Similarly, from trough to subsequent trough/bust was roughly 7% real.
Interesting, too, that the respective peaks and troughs over the past century were roughly 30 years apart. As you say, a buy-and-hold investor would have done quite well — irregardless of when she bought into the market — but only if she stayed the course for at least three decades.
... OR, if they averaged in and out across the time period, and could get past framing it with an anchor at some particular high or low point, but of their XIRR across the multiple periods they bought/sold across.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 4:20 pm
TheoLeo wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 3:58 pm
JoMoney wrote: Sun Jan 09, 2022 1:51 pm JoMoney's 10 Year Capital market Assumptions 8-) :greedy

I made this for a different thread that got locked before I could post it, figured it might as well fit here,
Image
May this channel never bend.
Scary thing is that the market can drop more than 50% tomorrow and still be between the red lines.
Well, looking at the bright side of this, just averaging and projecting by eyeball we have about another 10 years of better than average growth before we hit the top channel line.

Party hearty people! There might be a long rough patch after that.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky »

Futures up!!
I guess the market has decided the Fed won't really act to tighten monetary policy.


[edit] oops!
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firebirdparts
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

peskypesky wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 1:27 am [edit] oops!
Indeed. Plus, you made me look. Wish I hadn't.
This time is the same
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Starting to look like the toilet flush investors want to see.
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Tubes
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tubes »

I just need to follow this thread and have it pop up on my "Unread Posts" to signal me when the market starts soaring again. :)
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Interesting, RSP currently down a tiny bit more than SPY.
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bugleheadd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bugleheadd »

this is only temporary. new all time highs will be reached
yog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by yog »

'Gandalf' (Morgan Stanley) & Tom Lee (Fundstradt) both said buy the dip, and they were right again!
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xraygoggles
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by xraygoggles »

Wow QQQ ends in the green.
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

TheTimeLord wrote: Mon Jan 10, 2022 10:10 am Starting to look like the toilet flush investors want to see.
A very nice flush indeed.
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mr_brightside
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mr_brightside »

that was a heckuva intra-day reversal

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Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Great graph showing how easy financial conditions are relative to the past. Twitter link

Futures are soaring, the 10yr yield lower.

"Strategists From Goldman Sachs to UBS Say Buy Dip in Stocks" from Bloomberg
-->Goldman strategists don’t expect yields to rise much further
-->BlackRock, JPMorgan strategists see recent selloff as overdone

Unfazed by the stock market’s bumpy start to the year, strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to UBS Global Wealth Management reiterated their bullish calls on bets that equities can weather higher interest rates and rising bond yields.
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Tubes
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tubes »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:09 am Great graph showing how easy financial conditions are relative to the past. Twitter link

Futures are soaring, the 10yr yield lower.

"Strategists From Goldman Sachs to UBS Say Buy Dip in Stocks" from Bloomberg
-->Goldman strategists don’t expect yields to rise much further
-->BlackRock, JPMorgan strategists see recent selloff as overdone

Unfazed by the stock market’s bumpy start to the year, strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to UBS Global Wealth Management reiterated their bullish calls on bets that equities can weather higher interest rates and rising bond yields.
Take a longer look at this index: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dat ... background

Doesn't mean much to me with regard to stocks.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Tubes wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:59 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:09 am Great graph showing how easy financial conditions are relative to the past. Twitter link

Futures are soaring, the 10yr yield lower.

"Strategists From Goldman Sachs to UBS Say Buy Dip in Stocks" from Bloomberg
-->Goldman strategists don’t expect yields to rise much further
-->BlackRock, JPMorgan strategists see recent selloff as overdone

Unfazed by the stock market’s bumpy start to the year, strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to UBS Global Wealth Management reiterated their bullish calls on bets that equities can weather higher interest rates and rising bond yields.
Take a longer look at this index: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dat ... background

Doesn't mean much to me with regard to stocks.
I think they are different graphs. The Twitter graph says, "GS US Financial Conditions Index". So, it's a Goldman Sachs index. I can make the timeline in your link match the timeline in the Twitter graph, and the graphs look monstrously different. For example, in the Twitter graph you can see a huge spike in 2003. The graph you linked to shows not even a bump.

This chart below is less good than the one in the Twitter link, but for those who don't want to crack open Twitter...

Image
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Tubes
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tubes »

Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:24 am
Tubes wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:59 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:09 am Great graph showing how easy financial conditions are relative to the past. Twitter link

Futures are soaring, the 10yr yield lower.

"Strategists From Goldman Sachs to UBS Say Buy Dip in Stocks" from Bloomberg
-->Goldman strategists don’t expect yields to rise much further
-->BlackRock, JPMorgan strategists see recent selloff as overdone

Unfazed by the stock market’s bumpy start to the year, strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to UBS Global Wealth Management reiterated their bullish calls on bets that equities can weather higher interest rates and rising bond yields.
Take a longer look at this index: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dat ... background

Doesn't mean much to me with regard to stocks.
I think they are different graphs. The Twitter graph says, "GS US Financial Conditions Index". So, it's a Goldman Sachs index. I can make the timeline in your link match the timeline in the Twitter graph, and the graphs look monstrously different. For example, in the Twitter graph you can see a huge spike in 2003. The graph you linked to shows not even a bump.

This chart below is less good than the one in the Twitter link, but for those who don't want to crack open Twitter...

Image
Ah, I see.
Visitor76
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Visitor76 »

Time to start up the Free Fall thread....
Wealth is not about having a lot of money; it's about having a lot of options.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Tubes wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:36 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:24 am
Tubes wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:59 am
Robot Monster wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 7:09 am Great graph showing how easy financial conditions are relative to the past. Twitter link

Futures are soaring, the 10yr yield lower.

"Strategists From Goldman Sachs to UBS Say Buy Dip in Stocks" from Bloomberg
-->Goldman strategists don’t expect yields to rise much further
-->BlackRock, JPMorgan strategists see recent selloff as overdone

Unfazed by the stock market’s bumpy start to the year, strategists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to UBS Global Wealth Management reiterated their bullish calls on bets that equities can weather higher interest rates and rising bond yields.
Take a longer look at this index: https://www.chicagofed.org/research/dat ... background

Doesn't mean much to me with regard to stocks.
I think they are different graphs. The Twitter graph says, "GS US Financial Conditions Index". So, it's a Goldman Sachs index. I can make the timeline in your link match the timeline in the Twitter graph, and the graphs look monstrously different. For example, in the Twitter graph you can see a huge spike in 2003. The graph you linked to shows not even a bump.

This chart below is less good than the one in the Twitter link, but for those who don't want to crack open Twitter...

Image
Ah, I see.
Just a note about that graphic above:

(1) It starts in 2012, so shows a very limited dataset, almost all during a bull market run
(2) The y-axis goes from 96 to 102, which just exaggerates the "drop". I mean, if 99-100 is "normal", then a drop to 97 is a 2% drop.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Visitor76 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:40 am Time to start up the Free Fall thread....
Well, the NASDAQ still has a tenuous hold on green. But it is fading fast.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 9:26 am
Visitor76 wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 8:40 am Time to start up the Free Fall thread....
Well, the NASDAQ still has a tenuous hold on green. But it is fading fast.
Defensive sectors are doing much worse. It keeps changing, but
QQQ -0.2%
VDC (Consumer Staples) -0.97%
VPU (Utilities) -0.92%


Also, Vanguard Extended Duration ETF +0.58%
Locked