U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

That was what I would call knee-jerk soaring...
Last edited by pasadena on Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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canadianbacon
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by canadianbacon »

Getting choppy now.
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

I guess the worst case of a surprise rate hike today is gone. I wouldn't be shocked if we kept selling off tomorrow though. We've seen it before after a Fed day jump
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

Looks like a big 'never mind' when all is said and done...
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JoeRetire
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoeRetire »

The market goes up
The market goes down
Lather, rinse, repeat
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Party over...It was fun :sharebeer
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky »

Vtsax100 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:09 pm Major soaring today. S&P up over 2%. Lets see if it holds.
thanks for jinxing it. :(
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:45 pm Party over...It was fun :sharebeer
Still a bit of life left in the bull... 8-)
mikejuss
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mikejuss »

U.S. stocks continue to bore!
50% VTSAX | 25% VTIAX | 25% VBTLX (retirement), 25% VTEAX (taxable)
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

vanbogle59 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:11 pm I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the courage of Men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day.
An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the Age of Men comes crashing down, but it is not this day!
On second thought....
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quantAndHold
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by quantAndHold »

Well, the soaring and free fall threads are both at the top of my feed right now. Who am I supposed to believe?
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

I’ll make a bold call: ATH in March — and I’m probably being too bearish here. This feels like a sucker correction…
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

jarjarM wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:55 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:45 pm Party over...It was fun :sharebeer
Still a bit of life left in the bull... 8-)
Nevermind, bull went home, bear is out. :oops:
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TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

You have to love Stevie Nicks
I climbed a mountain and I turned around
And I saw my reflection in the snow-covered hills
'Til the landslide brought me down
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. | Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky »

mrspock wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 2:10 pm I’ll make a bold call: ATH in March — and I’m probably being too bearish here. This feels like a sucker correction…
I truly hope you're right...but I'm more bearish than you. The Fed hasn't even begun to tighten money supply. When it does...
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ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ResearchMed »

tvubpwcisla wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:43 am
ResearchMed wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:42 am
tvubpwcisla wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:39 am Great day today. Let's hope the rest of the year goes like this!
Let's hope the rest of the day goes like this!

RM
LOL!!!

:shock:
Sigh. :(

It was fun while it lasted, eh?
Hope springs eternal...

RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
Expro
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Expro »

I always try to remember that 5% to 10% of "my" portfolio isn't mine at all. And that's when I am being optimistic!
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
They've sounded like they've been baffled for a while now. TBH, they're likely just guessing at this point.
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gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do....
No one does, unless his name is C. P. I. Covid.
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
They're boxed into a corner and have no moves.
If they don't tighten monetary supply, inflation keeps going up and up.
If they tighten monetary supply, stock market crashes.

This is exactly what a lot of financial experts have been saying.
https://youtu.be/5-tnozmGa54?t=196
km91
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by km91 »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:45 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
They're boxed into a corner and have no moves.
If they don't tighten monetary supply, inflation keeps going up and up.
If they tighten monetary supply, stock market crashes.

This is exactly what a lot of financial experts have been saying.
https://youtu.be/5-tnozmGa54?t=196
At this point Powell's pretty clearly indicated that they're going ahead with rate hikes, regardless of how the stock market reacts. Either way, there's very little reason to believe that raising rates will have any meaningful affect on inflation driven by supply side constraints and fiscal stimulus. The Fed can't alleviate the semi conductor shortage or fill construction jobs
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gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:08 pm Either way, there's very little reason to believe that raising rates will have any meaningful affect on inflation driven by supply side constraints and fiscal stimulus. The Fed can't alleviate the semi conductor shortage or fill construction jobs
Volcker didn't drill more oil.
km91
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by km91 »

gmaynardkrebs wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:11 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:08 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:45 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
They're boxed into a corner and have no moves.
If they don't tighten monetary supply, inflation keeps going up and up.
If they tighten monetary supply, stock market crashes.

This is exactly what a lot of financial experts have been saying.
https://youtu.be/5-tnozmGa54?t=196
At this point Powell's pretty clearly indicated that they're going ahead with rate hikes, regardless of how the stock market reacts. Either way, there's very little reason to believe that raising rates will have any meaningful affect on inflation driven by supply side constraints and fiscal stimulus. The Fed can't alleviate the semi conductor shortage or fill construction jobs
Volcker didn't drill more oil.
He plunged the economy into a recession to "break the back of inflation." He was also faced with high unemployment and high inflation (stagflation). The current unemployment rate is at 40 year lows. Should Powell force the economy into a recession because it's doing too good?
SilverSmurfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SilverSmurfer »

km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:16 pm
gmaynardkrebs wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:11 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:08 pm
peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:45 pm
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
They're boxed into a corner and have no moves.
If they don't tighten monetary supply, inflation keeps going up and up.
If they tighten monetary supply, stock market crashes.

This is exactly what a lot of financial experts have been saying.
https://youtu.be/5-tnozmGa54?t=196
At this point Powell's pretty clearly indicated that they're going ahead with rate hikes, regardless of how the stock market reacts. Either way, there's very little reason to believe that raising rates will have any meaningful affect on inflation driven by supply side constraints and fiscal stimulus. The Fed can't alleviate the semi conductor shortage or fill construction jobs
Volcker didn't drill more oil.
He plunged the economy into a recession to "break the back of inflation." He was also faced with high unemployment and high inflation (stagflation). The current unemployment rate is at 40 year lows. Should Powell force the economy into a recession because it's doing too good?
If the economy is doing so good, how is a little increase in interest rates going to force a recession? A strong economy can weather that.

Frankly, with the excess spending of American consumers, I see no reason to worry about inflation. There is soooo much discretionary spending that can be cut back, yet currently isn't, before I'd see inflation as having a wide effect.
km91
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by km91 »

SilverSmurfer wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:38 pm
If the economy is doing so good, how is a little increase in interest rates going to force a recession? A strong economy can weather that.

Frankly, with the excess spending of American consumers, I see no reason to worry about inflation. There is soooo much discretionary spending that can be cut back, yet currently isn't, before I'd see inflation as having a wide effect.
I was making a comparison of the current situation to the situation Paul Volker faced in the 70's. Paul Volker didn't increase rates just a little to bring down the price of oil, he hiked the Fed Funds rate to 20% a plunged the economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. If one wants to make the argument that Powell should act as Volker did, be my guest.

My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
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peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by peskypesky »

km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm
SilverSmurfer wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:38 pm
If the economy is doing so good, how is a little increase in interest rates going to force a recession? A strong economy can weather that.

Frankly, with the excess spending of American consumers, I see no reason to worry about inflation. There is soooo much discretionary spending that can be cut back, yet currently isn't, before I'd see inflation as having a wide effect.
I was making a comparison of the current situation to the situation Paul Volker faced in the 70's. Paul Volker didn't increase rates just a little to bring down the price of oil, he hiked the Fed Funds rate to 20% a plunged the economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. If one wants to make the argument that Powell should act as Volker did, be my guest.

My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
You seem to be contradicting yourself. You say there's little reason to believe that raising interest rates will do anything to lower inflation, but then say the Fed will raise rates. Why would they do something that would have no effect? Just for fun?
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
km91
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by km91 »

peskypesky wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:03 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm
SilverSmurfer wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:38 pm
If the economy is doing so good, how is a little increase in interest rates going to force a recession? A strong economy can weather that.

Frankly, with the excess spending of American consumers, I see no reason to worry about inflation. There is soooo much discretionary spending that can be cut back, yet currently isn't, before I'd see inflation as having a wide effect.
I was making a comparison of the current situation to the situation Paul Volker faced in the 70's. Paul Volker didn't increase rates just a little to bring down the price of oil, he hiked the Fed Funds rate to 20% a plunged the economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. If one wants to make the argument that Powell should act as Volker did, be my guest.

My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
You seem to be contradicting yourself. You say there's little reason to believe that raising interest rates will do anything to lower inflation, but then say the Fed will raise rates. Why would they do something that would have no effect? Just for fun?
The strength of the underlying economy suggests that rates don't need to be at 0% and the Fed is taking steps to normalize rates
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
They do if their mortgage rate goes up. It looks like the Fed plans to run off its MBS. This should push up mortgage rates, which will reduce mobility. Do you want to sell your home and buy a new home with a much higher rate? This is the bit that doesn't come up often in paying down ones mortgage versus investing.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
The average American doesn't invest.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:13 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
They do if their mortgage rate goes up. It looks like the Fed plans to run off its MBS. This should push up mortgage rates, which will reduce mobility. Do you want to sell your home and buy a new home with a much higher rate? This is the bit that doesn't come up often in paying down ones mortgage versus investing.
Ultra low rates have had the effect of pushing up home prices dramatically. Many first time home buyers have found themselves completely locked out. How does that increase mobility? Seems like the opposite to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gmaynardkrebs »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
The average American doesn't invest.
But they vote.
Jaymover
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Jaymover »

It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.

Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.

Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.

So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Small Caps are really going south... yikes!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:49 pm Small Caps are really going south... yikes!
They lost a whole year's progress.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

It’s not just hike in interest rates but also end of QE asset purchases. The combo probably will have a significant effect. JPow is turning off the printer
000
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

2% rate will not defeat 7% inflation.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Jaymover wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.

Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.

Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.

So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
Check out slide 63:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/

It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

At least where I live, I am not seeing ongoing inflation. Gas prices, groceries, restaurant food etc are pretty much the same as the last several months. I have heard there is a lot of inflation in rent and real estate, however I am not involved in that market so haven’t noticed.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:09 pm They lost a whole year's progress.
yeah, painful for me as I have 25% Small Caps :shock: Combined with my International allocation of 20%, I am losing money like it's going out of style :annoyed US Large Cap stocks seem to be the only thing continuing to do relatively better, everything else has not done well at all in the last 10 years.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
The average American doesn't invest.
The average American participates in a 401K.
Tom_T
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Tom_T »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:33 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
The average American doesn't invest.
The average American participates in a 401K.
That's not true. The Census Bureau says that a third of the workforce has a 401K. I've read various polls that say 50-55% of Americans report owning stock.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

Tom_T wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:40 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:33 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm
km91 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pm My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
The average American doesn't invest.
The average American participates in a 401K.
That's not true. The Census Bureau says that a third of the workforce has a 401K. I've read various polls that say 50-55% of Americans report owning stock.
Ok, let's add the 403b and IRA accounts to the 401k accounts.
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:46 pm
Tom_T wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:40 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:33 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm

The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
The average American doesn't invest.
The average American participates in a 401K.
That's not true. The Census Bureau says that a third of the workforce has a 401K. I've read various polls that say 50-55% of Americans report owning stock.
Ok, let's add the 403b and IRA accounts to the 401k accounts.
Plus indirect ownership through pension plans and insurance funds.
Jaymover
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Jaymover »

rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:19 pm
Jaymover wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.

Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.

Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.

So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
Check out slide 63:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/

It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
If you are in cash for the next 5 years then you will probably be more negative as inflation eats 3-4 percent of your savings every year potentially. TINA
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by trirunner »

Jaymover wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:23 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:19 pm
Jaymover wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.

Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.

Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.

So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
Check out slide 63:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/

It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
If you are in cash for the next 5 years then you will probably be more negative as inflation eats 3-4 percent of your savings every year potentially. TINA
Or if you are in stock which falls by year 5, you are 3-4% inflation down + stock down. No body knows, stick to your asset allocation.
Jaymover
Posts: 214
Joined: Wed May 12, 2021 8:19 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Jaymover »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:24 pm
z3r0c00l wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:09 pm They lost a whole year's progress.
yeah, painful for me as I have 25% Small Caps :shock: Combined with my International allocation of 20%, I am losing money like it's going out of style :annoyed US Large Cap stocks seem to be the only thing continuing to do relatively better, everything else has not done well at all in the last 10 years.
I just bought a small parcel of small cap ETFs today to help rebalance a little as about 3% under AA. THey are priced at what they were two years ago. I figure that is a bargain. Big caps may capture this current contagion as millenials start selling off their ETFs. WHen they are priced to what they were two years ago I will buy some then maybe

The thing that upsets me more is that my bond ballast is also down and ETFs are priced at what they were almost 10 years ago. No inverse correlation at the moment.
Jaymover
Posts: 214
Joined: Wed May 12, 2021 8:19 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Jaymover »

trirunner wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:27 pm
Jaymover wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:23 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:19 pm
Jaymover wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.

Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.

Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.

So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
Check out slide 63:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/

It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
If you are in cash for the next 5 years then you will probably be more negative as inflation eats 3-4 percent of your savings every year potentially. TINA
Or if you are in stock which falls by year 5, you are 3-4% inflation down + stock down. No body knows, stick to your asset allocation.
True. However dont forget you have been getting stock dividend distributions along the way so you may be up some. Distributions seem to be 2-4 percent historically. Over 5 years that is 10-20 percent possibly compounded.
SilverSmurfer
Posts: 163
Joined: Sun Jan 16, 2022 7:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by SilverSmurfer »

trirunner wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:27 pm
Jaymover wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:23 pm
rockstar wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:19 pm
Jaymover wrote: Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.

Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.

Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.

So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
Check out slide 63:

https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/

It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
If you are in cash for the next 5 years then you will probably be more negative as inflation eats 3-4 percent of your savings every year potentially. TINA
Or if you are in stock which falls by year 5, you are 3-4% inflation down + stock down. No body knows, stick to your asset allocation.
100% I-bonds FTW!!!
Locked