U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
That was what I would call knee-jerk soaring...
Last edited by pasadena on Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- canadianbacon
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- Joined: Sun Nov 10, 2019 9:04 pm
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Getting choppy now.
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I guess the worst case of a surprise rate hike today is gone. I wouldn't be shocked if we kept selling off tomorrow though. We've seen it before after a Fed day jump
- Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looks like a big 'never mind' when all is said and done...
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The market goes up
The market goes down
Lather, rinse, repeat
The market goes down
Lather, rinse, repeat
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Party over...It was fun
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
U.S. stocks continue to bore!
50% VTSAX | 25% VTIAX | 25% VBTLX (retirement), 25% VTEAX (taxable)
- vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
On second thought....vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:11 pm I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.
A day may come when the courage of Men fails, when we forsake our friends and break all bonds of fellowship, but it is not this day.
An hour of wolves and shattered shields when the Age of Men comes crashing down, but it is not this day!
- quantAndHold
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, the soaring and free fall threads are both at the top of my feed right now. Who am I supposed to believe?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I’ll make a bold call: ATH in March — and I’m probably being too bearish here. This feels like a sucker correction…
- TheTimeLord
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You have to love Stevie Nicks
I climbed a mountain and I turned around
And I saw my reflection in the snow-covered hills
'Til the landslide brought me down
IMHO, Investing should be about living the life you want, not avoiding the life you fear. |
Run, You Clever Boy! [9085]
- peskypesky
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- ResearchMed
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Sigh.tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:43 amLOL!!!ResearchMed wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:42 amLet's hope the rest of the day goes like this!tvubpwcisla wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 11:39 am Great day today. Let's hope the rest of the year goes like this!
RM
It was fun while it lasted, eh?
Hope springs eternal...
RM
This signature is a placebo. You are in the control group.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I always try to remember that 5% to 10% of "my" portfolio isn't mine at all. And that's when I am being optimistic!
- Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
- willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
They've sounded like they've been baffled for a while now. TBH, they're likely just guessing at this point.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
The Sensible Steward
- gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No one does, unless his name is C. P. I. Covid.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do....
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
They're boxed into a corner and have no moves.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
If they don't tighten monetary supply, inflation keeps going up and up.
If they tighten monetary supply, stock market crashes.
This is exactly what a lot of financial experts have been saying.
https://youtu.be/5-tnozmGa54?t=196
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
At this point Powell's pretty clearly indicated that they're going ahead with rate hikes, regardless of how the stock market reacts. Either way, there's very little reason to believe that raising rates will have any meaningful affect on inflation driven by supply side constraints and fiscal stimulus. The Fed can't alleviate the semi conductor shortage or fill construction jobspeskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:45 pmThey're boxed into a corner and have no moves.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
If they don't tighten monetary supply, inflation keeps going up and up.
If they tighten monetary supply, stock market crashes.
This is exactly what a lot of financial experts have been saying.
https://youtu.be/5-tnozmGa54?t=196
- gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Volcker didn't drill more oil.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
He plunged the economy into a recession to "break the back of inflation." He was also faced with high unemployment and high inflation (stagflation). The current unemployment rate is at 40 year lows. Should Powell force the economy into a recession because it's doing too good?gmaynardkrebs wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:11 pmVolcker didn't drill more oil.km91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:08 pmAt this point Powell's pretty clearly indicated that they're going ahead with rate hikes, regardless of how the stock market reacts. Either way, there's very little reason to believe that raising rates will have any meaningful affect on inflation driven by supply side constraints and fiscal stimulus. The Fed can't alleviate the semi conductor shortage or fill construction jobspeskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:45 pmThey're boxed into a corner and have no moves.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
If they don't tighten monetary supply, inflation keeps going up and up.
If they tighten monetary supply, stock market crashes.
This is exactly what a lot of financial experts have been saying.
https://youtu.be/5-tnozmGa54?t=196
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If the economy is doing so good, how is a little increase in interest rates going to force a recession? A strong economy can weather that.km91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:16 pmHe plunged the economy into a recession to "break the back of inflation." He was also faced with high unemployment and high inflation (stagflation). The current unemployment rate is at 40 year lows. Should Powell force the economy into a recession because it's doing too good?gmaynardkrebs wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:11 pmVolcker didn't drill more oil.km91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:08 pmAt this point Powell's pretty clearly indicated that they're going ahead with rate hikes, regardless of how the stock market reacts. Either way, there's very little reason to believe that raising rates will have any meaningful affect on inflation driven by supply side constraints and fiscal stimulus. The Fed can't alleviate the semi conductor shortage or fill construction jobspeskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:45 pmThey're boxed into a corner and have no moves.Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 3:03 pm Dude, I gotta say the JPow presser was not very reassuring. It kinda sounded like they had no idea what they were gonna do. Let’s hope they have a better plan behind the scenes.
If they don't tighten monetary supply, inflation keeps going up and up.
If they tighten monetary supply, stock market crashes.
This is exactly what a lot of financial experts have been saying.
https://youtu.be/5-tnozmGa54?t=196
Frankly, with the excess spending of American consumers, I see no reason to worry about inflation. There is soooo much discretionary spending that can be cut back, yet currently isn't, before I'd see inflation as having a wide effect.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I was making a comparison of the current situation to the situation Paul Volker faced in the 70's. Paul Volker didn't increase rates just a little to bring down the price of oil, he hiked the Fed Funds rate to 20% a plunged the economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. If one wants to make the argument that Powell should act as Volker did, be my guest.SilverSmurfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:38 pm
If the economy is doing so good, how is a little increase in interest rates going to force a recession? A strong economy can weather that.
Frankly, with the excess spending of American consumers, I see no reason to worry about inflation. There is soooo much discretionary spending that can be cut back, yet currently isn't, before I'd see inflation as having a wide effect.
My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
- peskypesky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You seem to be contradicting yourself. You say there's little reason to believe that raising interest rates will do anything to lower inflation, but then say the Fed will raise rates. Why would they do something that would have no effect? Just for fun?km91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pmI was making a comparison of the current situation to the situation Paul Volker faced in the 70's. Paul Volker didn't increase rates just a little to bring down the price of oil, he hiked the Fed Funds rate to 20% a plunged the economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. If one wants to make the argument that Powell should act as Volker did, be my guest.SilverSmurfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:38 pm
If the economy is doing so good, how is a little increase in interest rates going to force a recession? A strong economy can weather that.
Frankly, with the excess spending of American consumers, I see no reason to worry about inflation. There is soooo much discretionary spending that can be cut back, yet currently isn't, before I'd see inflation as having a wide effect.
My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The strength of the underlying economy suggests that rates don't need to be at 0% and the Fed is taking steps to normalize ratespeskypesky wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:03 pmYou seem to be contradicting yourself. You say there's little reason to believe that raising interest rates will do anything to lower inflation, but then say the Fed will raise rates. Why would they do something that would have no effect? Just for fun?km91 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:56 pmI was making a comparison of the current situation to the situation Paul Volker faced in the 70's. Paul Volker didn't increase rates just a little to bring down the price of oil, he hiked the Fed Funds rate to 20% a plunged the economy into the deepest recession since the Great Depression. If one wants to make the argument that Powell should act as Volker did, be my guest.SilverSmurfer wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 4:38 pm
If the economy is doing so good, how is a little increase in interest rates going to force a recession? A strong economy can weather that.
Frankly, with the excess spending of American consumers, I see no reason to worry about inflation. There is soooo much discretionary spending that can be cut back, yet currently isn't, before I'd see inflation as having a wide effect.
My guess is the real economy is in fine position to handle a couple 25bp rate increases. It's only financial markets that are throwing a tantrum
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
They do if their mortgage rate goes up. It looks like the Fed plans to run off its MBS. This should push up mortgage rates, which will reduce mobility. Do you want to sell your home and buy a new home with a much higher rate? This is the bit that doesn't come up often in paying down ones mortgage versus investing.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pmThe average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The average American doesn't invest.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pmThe average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
- gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Ultra low rates have had the effect of pushing up home prices dramatically. Many first time home buyers have found themselves completely locked out. How does that increase mobility? Seems like the opposite to me.rockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:13 pmThey do if their mortgage rate goes up. It looks like the Fed plans to run off its MBS. This should push up mortgage rates, which will reduce mobility. Do you want to sell your home and buy a new home with a much higher rate? This is the bit that doesn't come up often in paying down ones mortgage versus investing.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pmThe average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
- gmaynardkrebs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
But they vote.lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pmThe average American doesn't invest.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pmThe average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.
Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.
Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.
So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.
Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.
So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Small Caps are really going south... yikes!
- Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It’s not just hike in interest rates but also end of QE asset purchases. The combo probably will have a significant effect. JPow is turning off the printer
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
2% rate will not defeat 7% inflation.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Check out slide 63:Jaymover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.
Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.
Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.
So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/
It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
- Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
At least where I live, I am not seeing ongoing inflation. Gas prices, groceries, restaurant food etc are pretty much the same as the last several months. I have heard there is a lot of inflation in rent and real estate, however I am not involved in that market so haven’t noticed.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
yeah, painful for me as I have 25% Small Caps Combined with my International allocation of 20%, I am losing money like it's going out of style US Large Cap stocks seem to be the only thing continuing to do relatively better, everything else has not done well at all in the last 10 years.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The average American participates in a 401K.lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pmThe average American doesn't invest.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pmThe average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
That's not true. The Census Bureau says that a third of the workforce has a 401K. I've read various polls that say 50-55% of Americans report owning stock.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:33 pmThe average American participates in a 401K.lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pmThe average American doesn't invest.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pmThe average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Ok, let's add the 403b and IRA accounts to the 401k accounts.Tom_T wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:40 pmThat's not true. The Census Bureau says that a third of the workforce has a 401K. I've read various polls that say 50-55% of Americans report owning stock.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:33 pmThe average American participates in a 401K.lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pmThe average American doesn't invest.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pmThe average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
- AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Plus indirect ownership through pension plans and insurance funds.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:46 pmOk, let's add the 403b and IRA accounts to the 401k accounts.Tom_T wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:40 pmThat's not true. The Census Bureau says that a third of the workforce has a 401K. I've read various polls that say 50-55% of Americans report owning stock.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:33 pmThe average American participates in a 401K.lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:32 pmThe average American doesn't invest.UpperNwGuy wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 5:05 pm
The average American doesn't care if the financial markets throw a tantrum.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If you are in cash for the next 5 years then you will probably be more negative as inflation eats 3-4 percent of your savings every year potentially. TINArockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:19 pmCheck out slide 63:Jaymover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.
Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.
Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.
So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/
It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Or if you are in stock which falls by year 5, you are 3-4% inflation down + stock down. No body knows, stick to your asset allocation.Jaymover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:23 pmIf you are in cash for the next 5 years then you will probably be more negative as inflation eats 3-4 percent of your savings every year potentially. TINArockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:19 pmCheck out slide 63:Jaymover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.
Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.
Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.
So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/
It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I just bought a small parcel of small cap ETFs today to help rebalance a little as about 3% under AA. THey are priced at what they were two years ago. I figure that is a bargain. Big caps may capture this current contagion as millenials start selling off their ETFs. WHen they are priced to what they were two years ago I will buy some then maybestocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:24 pmyeah, painful for me as I have 25% Small Caps Combined with my International allocation of 20%, I am losing money like it's going out of style US Large Cap stocks seem to be the only thing continuing to do relatively better, everything else has not done well at all in the last 10 years.
The thing that upsets me more is that my bond ballast is also down and ETFs are priced at what they were almost 10 years ago. No inverse correlation at the moment.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
True. However dont forget you have been getting stock dividend distributions along the way so you may be up some. Distributions seem to be 2-4 percent historically. Over 5 years that is 10-20 percent possibly compounded.trirunner wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:27 pmOr if you are in stock which falls by year 5, you are 3-4% inflation down + stock down. No body knows, stick to your asset allocation.Jaymover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:23 pmIf you are in cash for the next 5 years then you will probably be more negative as inflation eats 3-4 percent of your savings every year potentially. TINArockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:19 pmCheck out slide 63:Jaymover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.
Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.
Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.
So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/
It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
100% I-bonds FTW!!!trirunner wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:27 pmOr if you are in stock which falls by year 5, you are 3-4% inflation down + stock down. No body knows, stick to your asset allocation.Jaymover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 8:23 pmIf you are in cash for the next 5 years then you will probably be more negative as inflation eats 3-4 percent of your savings every year potentially. TINArockstar wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 7:19 pmCheck out slide 63:Jaymover wrote: ↑Wed Jan 26, 2022 6:47 pm It seems to me that you dont buy shares or stock etfs unless you are prepared to hang on to them for 5-7 years at least. Increases in interest rates will suppress share values. However over time (years) profits will soar, dividends and distributions will increase handsomely and then eventually stock prices will go up again. Wont be nice seeing your net worth diminish in the short term but in the longer term will see it increase due to yield and a gradual reflation of asset prices.
Of course you can sit in cash for 5-7 years. Probably interest rates will push up cash yields a bit. However this may not happen as banks salvage their loan books by continuing to punish savers over borrowers.
Of course there also could be a global recession in which case you might be more worried about your income or your kids wellbeing than the value of your portfolio. If there is a recession then interest rates will be kept low and so the story goes. At least your stocks will keep you head above inflation.
So dont buy shares or stock etfs and even bonds unless you are willing to hang on to them for 5+ years.
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-man ... e-markets/
It supports your 5+ years. Of course, even at that length of time, you can still end up negative. It's just less likely.