I don't want to get all "this time it's different" with bonds, but feel honestly that my generation won't have the same Bond bull market a lot of older people did. Just like a college degree for us wasn't an automatic path to success, we couldn't afford college on our part time jobs, and we won't be able to rely on our pensions with even social security looking like it might take a 25% haircut. Some things do change. I do plan to get into bonds when I am older. If I had a parent as well off as a lot of the posters on here I might think differently, but the "new normal" is a growing income gap where many my age will have to work as long as we can stay healthy and can't afford the plattitudes of boomers or even older Xers.
i share some of the same sentiment. the Fed has really 're-written the rule book' the last 15 years or so with ultra-low interest rates.
i'm an older Gen X-er (early 50s) and I remember early 2000s you could earn 5-6% just parking cash in a MMF... (and inflation wasn't onerous so there actually was a real rate of return on top of the 'safety' of a sizeable cash position.)
but the up-side has been a booming stock market minus a couple of dips along the way. i am highly curious what happens with interest rates over the next 4-5 years. no doubt our highest inflation in 30 years stems PARTLY from the long-term ultra-low rates (and high stimulus spending).
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:38 am
SPX should make a final rally to 5,250 in early 2022, we may have already experienced the customary Q4 jitters. Provisionally I estimate SPX ends 2021 @4,800 and perhaps 4,200 at the end of 2022 (real 15% loss after inflation).
I think you are very likely still underestimating the magnitude of this market, which is consistent with your past failed predictions.
5250 is probably going to look too low when this bull market ends in parabolic euphoria.
OTOH 4200 is way too optimistic for what I think happens during the crash. This epic bull market is more likely to turn into an epic unprecedented bear market, going deeper than -50%, triggering forced deleveraging throughout the system, and then a collapse to even lower asset values.
Forester wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 9:38 am
SPX should make a final rally to 5,250 in early 2022, we may have already experienced the customary Q4 jitters. Provisionally I estimate SPX ends 2021 @4,800 and perhaps 4,200 at the end of 2022 (real 15% loss after inflation).
I think you are very likely still underestimating the magnitude of this market, which is consistent with your past failed predictions.
5250 is probably going to look too low when this bull market ends in parabolic euphoria.
OTOH 4200 is way too optimistic for what I think happens during the crash. This epic bull market is more likely to turn into an epic unprecedented bear market, going deeper than -50%, triggering forced deleveraging throughout the system, and then a collapse to even lower asset values.
Unprecedented? So, worse than the 89% drop during the great depression. Cool.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
This is a fun general purpose "stocks up" thread that I'm glad we've been allowed to keep running, but sometimes I feel like it should be reserved for reaching new highs rather than re-visiting levels we've already been at.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
JoMoney wrote: ↑Thu Dec 02, 2021 6:56 pm
This is a fun general purpose "stocks up" thread that I'm glad we've been allowed to keep running, but sometimes I feel like it should be reserved for reaching new highs rather than re-visiting levels we've already been at.
I said this in the free-falling thread back in 2011, Guess how well that worked out?
HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Nov 09, 2011 2:21 pm
Heh, we're still 1000 points higher than when this thread started or about 8.5% up.
Really shouldn't add to this thread until we drop below 10800 again.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Judging by mall traffic and crowds around here this is going to be one sad holiday season for retailers. Ironically that might turn out to be good for stocks!
newyorker wrote: ↑Wed Dec 01, 2021 7:37 pm
Pretty sad day... well i guess i will keep DCA...
About six weeks ago this would have been right around an all time high.
Indeed; and stocks would need to drop almost 20% more to erase this year's gains.
I have to ask, honestly, would the DCA camp keep buying if stocks dropped 20% over, say, the next few days?
Just make sure you guys aren't overextending your risk tolerance.
If we had another March 2020 I'd rebalance and TLH aggressively.
Unless a major correction happens, I might be nearing a point that I stop buying stocks for the rest of my life, and start working on building a bigger fixed-income cushion to draw on.
I'm not opposed to looking for opportunities to do some Roth conversions of stocks at a lower price though
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Interesting decline. It seems oddly timed, but also maybe an opportunity. If it falls enough, maybe my rebalance bands trigger. Please don't throw me into the briar patch - er I mean, force me to buy more stocks!
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
Tom_T wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 10:24 am
You know it's fun when both the "stocks soaring!" and "stocks falling!' threads are getting simultaneous activity.
They are usually both at the top of my forums list at the same time. LOL
Rules to investing: |
1. Don't lose money. |
2. Don't forget rule number 1.
newyorker wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:38 pm
Why is this thread even active today?
We should merge the two threads into "U.S. stocks continue to do something!"
With all this talk of merging, just thought I'd throw in my two cents and say not to merge. (Silent majority?)
The reason is that one thread may capture what people are doing about a soaring market (if anything), and the other may capture what people are doing in a free-fall (if anything).
My guess is that the motivation to merge is because perhaps the majority of posts are just general market commentary when the market is neither soaring nor free-falling (e.g., up or down by not even a full percent on a given day... just business as usual). I'm half-thinking that the issue can be resolved by creating a third thread, not sure of the title, but one word comes to mind: "yawn."
That being said, I'll try to make one comment pertinent to soaring... I see that the S&P futures are up by almost half a percent right now. That's worth almost half a yawn right there!
newyorker wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:38 pm
Why is this thread even active today?
We should merge the two threads into "U.S. stocks continue to do something!"
With all this talk of merging, just thought I'd throw in my two cents and say not to merge. (Silent majority?)
The reason is that one thread may capture what people are doing about a soaring market (if anything), and the other may capture what people are doing in a free-fall (if anything).
My guess is that the motivation to merge is because perhaps the majority of posts are just general market commentary when the market is neither soaring nor free-falling (e.g., up or down by not even a full percent on a given day... just business as usual). I'm half-thinking that the issue can be resolved by creating a third thread, not sure of the title, but one word comes to mind: "yawn."
That being said, I'll try to make one comment pertinent to soaring... I see that the S&P futures are up by almost half a percent right now. That's worth almost half a yawn right there!
I was just kidding. I should've used an emoji or something.
HanSolo wrote: ↑Sun Dec 05, 2021 9:33 pm
The reason is that one thread may capture what people are doing about a soaring market (if anything), and the other may capture what people are doing in a free-fall (if anything).
Go back to the OP. This thread only exists because one person (who has been AWOL since mid-2019) got tired of seeing the free-fall thread on days the market was up. Before that day in 2018, the other thread was already general purpose market commentary.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
newyorker wrote: ↑Fri Dec 03, 2021 1:38 pm
Why is this thread even active today?
We should merge the two threads into "U.S. stocks continue to do something!"
With all this talk of merging, just thought I'd throw in my two cents and say not to merge. (Silent majority?)
The reason is that one thread may capture what people are doing about a soaring market (if anything), and the other may capture what people are doing in a free-fall (if anything).
My guess is that the motivation to merge is because perhaps the majority of posts are just general market commentary when the market is neither soaring nor free-falling (e.g., up or down by not even a full percent on a given day... just business as usual). I'm half-thinking that the issue can be resolved by creating a third thread, not sure of the title, but one word comes to mind: "yawn."
That being said, I'll try to make one comment pertinent to soaring... I see that the S&P futures are up by almost half a percent right now. That's worth almost half a yawn right there!
Two threads are more fun because they are opposite and every once in a while one thread will dominate. We're seeing a lot of volatility so both threads are more in play.
I am happy for the soaring. But it would be even better if all the super speculative stocks and assets would finally really crash. Lucid and Rivian trading at 100 billion. Nikola still trading at 4 billion. Palantir trading at 40 billion. Gamestop trading at 14 billion. This is too ridiculous. Wouldn`t it be nice for valuations to make sense again?
TheoLeo wrote: ↑Mon Dec 06, 2021 1:04 pm
I am happy for the soaring. But it would be even better if all the super speculative stocks and assets would finally really crash. Lucid and Rivian trading at 100 billion. Nikola still trading at 4 billion. Palantir trading at 40 billion. Gamestop trading at 14 billion. This is too ridiculous. Wouldn`t it be nice for valuations to make sense again?
Rising tide lift all boats, even those with holes in them. You'll have to wait 'til the Fed pulls the market support and let there be a real bear market.