Sometimes "down less" is the best one can do. Don't disparage cash or overstate its depreciation. There's a reason that the saying "cash is king" has stood the test of time.
U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Last edited by namajones on Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
A bad day, to be sure, but how about we just wait and see what happens tomorrow?
50% VTSAX | 25% VTIAX | 25% VBTLX (retirement), 25% VTEAX (taxable)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Let us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
2020 has been the year of small drops without a crash. Whaddaya talking about??anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 am
Let us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Or they don't announce anything, and the opposite happens. Feeling lucky?
A task begun is nearly half complete | Enough is as good as a feast | Risk: Ensure your goals can be met even under worst case scenario and be realistic.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
and therein lies the massive massive massive problem investors face today... can we move away from zero bound rates and debt monetization without a massive decrease in asset prices. each time it's been tried, rates increase markets drop leading to yet around round of qe. thus far we've not been able to exit such a strategy for any length of time. hence, cash is sometimes your best, worst option.anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 amLet us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
and therein lies the massive massive massive problem investors face today... can we move away from zero bound rates and debt monetization without a massive decrease in asset prices. each time it's been tried, rates increase markets drop leading to yet around round of qe. thus far we've not been able to exit such a strategy for any length of time. hence, cash is sometimes your best, worst option.anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 amLet us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This time is different. Several things -- inflation stickiness, no more stimulus checks expectation, federal unemployment ending, moratoriums over, ...rchmx1 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:08 am2020 has been the year of small drops without a crash. Whaddaya talking about??anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 am
Let us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You better go back to 100% cash then.anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:14 amThis time is different. Several things -- inflation stickiness, no more stimulus checks expectation, federal unemployment ending, moratoriums over, ...rchmx1 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 10:08 am2020 has been the year of small drops without a crash. Whaddaya talking about??anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 am
Let us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Futures are looking up this morning with only a few minutes to the open.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Taper down in progress.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Rebound might be short-lived.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I am backing up Dave’s jet on the runway to load up on shares!
Tony
Tony
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Better hurry -- we just got an updraft under our wings.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Does anyone know why USD is suddenly gaining? Seems counter-intuitive as we possibly face a shutdown / default and what not.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Just spitballing: Treasury stopping payments means fewer dollars going into circulation, which would drive up the price of USD. The Fed has dollar swap-lines with many of the large central banks, but other countries need dollars for imports and lack such access.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:29 pm Does anyone know why USD is suddenly gaining? Seems counter-intuitive as we possibly face a shutdown / default and what not.
A useful razor: anyone asking about speculative strategies on Bogleheads.org has no business using them.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Thanks, this might very well be the case I can't say I know much about forex, just found this phenomenon interesting.drk wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:34 pmJust spitballing: Treasury stopping payments means fewer dollars going into circulation, which would drive up the price of USD. The Fed has dollar swap-lines with many of the large central banks, but other countries need dollars for imports and lack such access.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:29 pm Does anyone know why USD is suddenly gaining? Seems counter-intuitive as we possibly face a shutdown / default and what not.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
rip the shorts a new one on the last day of the quarter
Don’t let anyone else ruin your portfolio. It’s your portfolio. Ruin it yourself!!!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I don't know, but I like it.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:29 pm Does anyone know why USD is suddenly gaining? Seems counter-intuitive as we possibly face a shutdown / default and what not.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Let them drop. More opportunity.anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 amLet us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The funny thing is. In USA the news reports it as the dollar gaining but in the U.K. the news reports as Sterling “plunging”. Is it one of these or a combination of both? Is there a difference?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:29 pm Does anyone know why USD is suddenly gaining? Seems counter-intuitive as we possibly face a shutdown / default and what not.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes. It's because a lot of people thought the USD was headed down.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well its an inverse function right? If the dollar gets stronger then sterling drops since the comparison is usually against the dollar...minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:42 amThe funny thing is. In USA the news reports it as the dollar gaining but in the U.K. the news reports as Sterling “plunging”. Is it one of these or a combination of both? Is there a difference?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:29 pm Does anyone know why USD is suddenly gaining? Seems counter-intuitive as we possibly face a shutdown / default and what not.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'll be glad to say goodbye to September.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Not out of the woods yet, September has historically been a bad month for stocks, but October had the darkest days for stocks.
Then again...
Mark Twain in Pudd'nhead Wilson wrote:October: This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looks like another taper down in progress.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:39 amLet them drop. More opportunity.anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 amLet us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Last March felt like shoveling cash into a furnace, but it turned out to be opportunity.Whakamole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:03 am It's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well "opportunity" is somewhat subjective but, in general terms, you want stocks to have lower values in accumulation phase and higher values during deaccumulation. The long-term trend is up. But of course in the long term... we're all dead.Whakamole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:03 amIt's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:39 amLet them drop. More opportunity.anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 amLet us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
I believe the market is still up for the quarter even if it ends down for September.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
What happened?
We were up, and now we’re not.
We were up, and now we’re not.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No wind in this market's sails this month. Let's hope for a better October
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I’m 100a% equities with 1.5 mil. I only have 30 - 40k a year to invest but I still like the “opportunity” even though it doesn’t really affect my contributions at all.Whakamole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:03 amIt's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:39 amLet them drop. More opportunity.anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 amLet us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah, that's what "buying the dip" always feels like. You're loading up for a rebound later; at the end of the day the markets have to go up eventually.canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:09 amLast March felt like shoveling cash into a furnace, but it turned out to be opportunity.Whakamole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:03 am It's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If COVID had turned out to be 5%-10% fatal, it could have been a LONG time before the markets went back up. Someday the risk might show up, and everyone here will be "What? I didn't think risk was real! Just buying opportunities!"Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:46 amYeah, that's what "buying the dip" always feels like. You're loading up for a rebound later; at the end of the day the markets have to go up eventually.canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:09 amLast March felt like shoveling cash into a furnace, but it turned out to be opportunity.Whakamole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:03 am It's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Indeed. I'm surprised myself how fast the markets recovered after -35%.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Not only recovered, but skyrocketed past previous highs very quickly. I would have never imagined something like this happening. The markets truly are unpredictable in the short term.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:01 amIndeed. I'm surprised myself how fast the markets recovered after -35%.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Wow. We are like polar opposites.minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:43 amI’m 100a% equities with 1.5 mil. I only have 30 - 40k a year to invest but I still like the “opportunity” even though it doesn’t really affect my contributions at all.Whakamole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:03 amIt's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:39 amLet them drop. More opportunity.anoop wrote: ↑Tue Sep 28, 2021 9:35 amLet us see. My worry is that the market cannot tolerate even small drops without turning into a crash and I think we are already past that point. This means unless the fed announces an increase in asset purchases or we get a decent-sized stimulus bill, stocks will continue to drop.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Now that I'm retired rebalancing into oblivion will be much more on my radar during the next significant downturn. I have no problem even increasing my equities 10% or so but I think it is prudent to keep a tight reign on bargain hunting in a market drop once you are retired.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:55 amIf COVID had turned out to be 5%-10% fatal, it could have been a LONG time before the markets went back up. Someday the risk might show up, and everyone here will be "What? I didn't think risk was real! Just buying opportunities!"Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:46 amYeah, that's what "buying the dip" always feels like. You're loading up for a rebound later; at the end of the day the markets have to go up eventually.canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:09 amLast March felt like shoveling cash into a furnace, but it turned out to be opportunity.Whakamole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:03 am It's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
Last edited by Candor on Thu Sep 30, 2021 11:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Sorry all- I re-invested my VTI dividends shortly after the market opened, all but ensuring things would go south for the rest of the day.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I was fully invested (except for emergency funds), so the only cash I was shoveling was my normal 401(k).canadianbacon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:09 amLast March felt like shoveling cash into a furnace, but it turned out to be opportunity.Whakamole wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 10:03 am It's an opportunity if you don't have much money in the market and additional investments make a big difference to your net worth.
I've had days when my NW drops by the amount I've contributed to my 401(k), including generous matching and the mega backdoor. A little hard to call that "opportunity."
Need to run the numbers but I may have done better by TLH - I have a few years of $3000 deductions.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Fair enough. I appreciate the follow up.homebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:55 pmYes, and there are other factors that I probably can't discuss here which could make the events less comparable. I only claim that we don't have a historical precedent to be pessimistic about.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:51 pmI am not certain that we can learn much from events in 1918 when printed newspapers were the primary source of news and 2021 when if Fauci sneezes it is known around the world in milliseconds.homebuyer6426 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 30, 2021 1:36 pm
…The worst wave of the flu was in 1918 and here is what the Dow Jones looked like. But the market bounces from the war were bigger in magnitude if you zoom out to the 5-10 year graph…
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I removed an off-topic interchange discussing viruses and pandemics beyond their effects on the market (vaccine effectiveness and epidemiology). The discussion was derailed. As a reminder, see: Please read before posting on coronavirus/COVID-19
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I believe that is called a jinx.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I was looking at July 1st close. Besides, it's total return that matters anyway, right?
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
For those of us who are buyers, "better" is when our purchases can be made at lower prices.
So, yes, let's hope for a better October!
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
we need a big stimulus bill to get passed. once we get that, all will be good. otherwise, all will be bad.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No. Change "bad" to "good". Lower prices are good for those making stock purchases.
18,000 posts in this thread... cool!
Last edited by HanSolo on Thu Sep 30, 2021 8:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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