U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

rockstar wrote: Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:52 pm
jarjarM wrote: Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:48 pm
nigel_ht wrote: Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:39 pm I honestly haven’t seen him post anything outlandish in other threads. A little bearish at times but so am I.

Things ARE a little crazy…and pointing that out isn’t crazy.
His posts in other threads are actually fairly thoughtful and normal. But he does post some more outlandish claims here and the free-fall thread. He just like to needle :P
Maybe it's a mental exercise. Come here. Post your doubts. Have people tell you that you're ridiculous. And then stay the course. Posting here is much cheaper than therapy. I don't consider it trolling.
That's good point, didn't think of that but certainly it's cheaper to get some reassurance here than from a financial advisor or a therapist.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Getting back to the soaring discussion, normal soaring has resumed for NASDAQ and QQQ, but the S&P has been left in the dust.

The Curly Family Portfolio has vaulted to a new all-time high. :moneybag :sharebeer
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

My Amazon shares have been on a tear lately after sitting flat for a year. Playing catch up, I guess
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

rockstar wrote: Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:52 pm I don't consider it trolling.
Nor do I. Cuz having such opinions makes work for the mods. (Trust me, I know :D )
vv19
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vv19 »

Backing the truck and heavily buying QQQ in Feb/March seems to be paying off really well.
Bluemnatra
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluemnatra »

jay22 wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:07 am Backing the truck and heavily buying QQQ in Feb/March seems to be paying off really well.
Indeed. Have you been adding to your position?
"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan"
vv19
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vv19 »

Bluemnatra wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:12 am
jay22 wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:07 am Backing the truck and heavily buying QQQ in Feb/March seems to be paying off really well.
Indeed. Have you been adding to your position?
Yes, sir - every month. Better r/r than VTI.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

atdharris wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:23 am My Amazon shares have been on a tear lately after sitting flat for a year. Playing catch up, I guess
DW has her fun money in AMZN. I just checked and the 3 year performance is very close to that of NASDAQ.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluemnatra »

jay22 wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:21 am
Bluemnatra wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:12 am
jay22 wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:07 am Backing the truck and heavily buying QQQ in Feb/March seems to be paying off really well.
Indeed. Have you been adding to your position?
Yes, sir - every month. Better r/r than VTI.
:sharebeer

I've been looking at qqqm and vgt. qqqm is same as qqq with lower ER?
"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan"
vv19
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vv19 »

Bluemnatra wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:29 am
jay22 wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:21 am
Bluemnatra wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:12 am
jay22 wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:07 am Backing the truck and heavily buying QQQ in Feb/March seems to be paying off really well.
Indeed. Have you been adding to your position?
Yes, sir - every month. Better r/r than VTI.
:sharebeer

I've been looking at qqqm and vgt. qqqm is same as qqq with lower ER?
Yes, same holdings with a lower ER.
ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:15 am Getting back to the soaring discussion, normal soaring has resumed for NASDAQ and QQQ, but the S&P has been left in the dust.

The Curly Family Portfolio has vaulted to a new all-time high. :moneybag :sharebeer
Well, with bonds and international acting as a counterweight, the Huckleberry Family portfolio just remains stuck at what looks to be a permanently high plateau.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:26 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:23 am My Amazon shares have been on a tear lately after sitting flat for a year. Playing catch up, I guess
DW has her fun money in AMZN. I just checked and the 3 year performance is very close to that of NASDAQ.
Remember the "AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?" thread from August? link
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Will turn out to be a very nice end to the week if this holds up. Would finish the day with another ATH. :greedy
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:35 am
...Well, with bonds and international acting as a counterweight, the Huckleberry Family portfolio just remains stuck at what looks to be a permanently high plateau.
There are a whole lot of worse things that could have happened...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

ImUrHuckleberry wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:35 am
CurlyDave wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 9:15 am Getting back to the soaring discussion, normal soaring has resumed for NASDAQ and QQQ, but the S&P has been left in the dust.

The Curly Family Portfolio has vaulted to a new all-time high. :moneybag :sharebeer
Well, with bonds and international acting as a counterweight, the Huckleberry Family portfolio just remains stuck at what looks to be a permanently high plateau.
The Agility Family has been scanning the high plateau landscape of our portfolio and is preparing packs to climb the next mountain on the horizon. Could be a mirage of a crater ahead, but the Family is confident the ascent will happen at some point.
:sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

The Stinky family portfolio has all wheel drive.

The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.

The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Here comes the taper down
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:19 pm The Stinky family portfolio has all wheel drive.

The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.

The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
Have you been listening to Ezekiel Saw the Wheel?
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Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Stinky wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:19 pm The Stinky family portfolio has all wheel drive.

The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.

The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
I wonder how much of that international underperformance of late is due to recent USD strengthening. See link.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

Stinky wrote: Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:19 pm The Stinky family portfolio has all wheel drive.

The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.

The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
Today may be an exception (regarding "moves forward"). VOO is down (not to mention VTI, which is down even more).

Perhaps one front wheel is Big Tech while the other front wheel is the S&P 495 ... ?
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Reports are that Biden will renominate Jay Powell to chair the Fed.

I think Mr Market will like that.
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stinky wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:08 am Reports are that Biden will renominate Jay Powell to chair the Fed.

I think Mr Market will like that.
So far it looks like it.

Please no taper down...
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Once again, futures are looking nice and green this morning. If this holds up through the opening bell and early morning price discovery we could have another good day. :moneybag :mrgreen:

And NASDAQ is still where its at.
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HanSolo
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Post by HanSolo »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:13 am Once again, futures are looking nice and green this morning. If this holds up through the opening bell and early morning price discovery we could have another good day.
Price discovery? I keep seeing articles like "Fed's Action Obliterates True Price Discovery Mechanism" and "The Federal Reserve Has Killed Price Discovery".

Be careful what you wish for. "Hello price discovery" = "bye bye soaring".
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:26 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:13 am Once again, futures are looking nice and green this morning. If this holds up through the opening bell and early morning price discovery we could have another good day.
Price discovery? I keep seeing articles like "Fed's Action Obliterates True Price Discovery Mechanism" and "The Federal Reserve Has Killed Price Discovery".

Be careful what you wish for. "Hello price discovery" = "bye bye soaring".
Do you have a link to any of those articles?

IMHO the primary function of NYSE, NASDAQ and other stock markets around the world is to provide price discovery. Anyone who tells you different is just publishing clickbait headlines.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:47 am
HanSolo wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:26 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:13 am Once again, futures are looking nice and green this morning. If this holds up through the opening bell and early morning price discovery we could have another good day.
Price discovery? I keep seeing articles like "Fed's Action Obliterates True Price Discovery Mechanism" and "The Federal Reserve Has Killed Price Discovery".

Be careful what you wish for. "Hello price discovery" = "bye bye soaring".
Do you have a link to any of those articles?

IMHO the primary function of NYSE, NASDAQ and other stock markets around the world is to provide price discovery. Anyone who tells you different is just publishing clickbait headlines.
As far as I can tell, it's been a fairly mainstream understanding that the Fed's interference prevents discovery of true market prices, going all the way back to the Greenspan put (see articles cited in the wiki article), and to a much larger degree since then. My opinion is that it seems to be a valid understanding.

I'm not necessarily vouching for these specific articles, just giving examples of available opinions related to the above. If there are contrary opinions available, that would be interesting to know.

Fed's Action Obliterates True Price Discovery Mechanism

The Federal Reserve Has Killed Price Discovery

The Fed Is Deep in Uncharted Waters. Danger Ahead.

The Fed Board Agrees Never to Disagree (WSJ paywall)
"A different view might express concern about the loss of price discovery caused by the Fed's massive intrusion into markets, its effect on widening wealth inequality and the potential for financial instability in the wake of massive liquidity injections."
Last edited by HanSolo on Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Nice morning so far :greedy
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vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

For good or ill, you can only trade on the actual discovered price, not the "true" discovered price.
:beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mr_brightside »

Bogleheads we are GO for launch !

(so far today anyway...) :D

-------------------------------
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

vanbogle59 wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:17 am For good or ill, you can only trade on the actual discovered price, not the "true" discovered price.
You can do the latter when the intervention is removed. In that scenario... look out below.
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Cheez-It Guy
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Post by Cheez-It Guy »

Money printer go "Brrr!"
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:01 am
As far as I can tell, it's been a fairly mainstream understanding that the Fed's interference prevents discovery of true market prices, going all the way back to the Greenspan put (see articles cited in the wiki article), and to a much larger degree since then. My opinion is that it seems to be a valid understanding.

I'm not necessarily vouching for these specific articles, just giving examples of available opinions related to the above. If there are contrary opinions available, that would be interesting to know.

Fed's Action Obliterates True Price Discovery Mechanism

The Federal Reserve Has Killed Price Discovery

The Fed Is Deep in Uncharted Waters. Danger Ahead.
Well, I am going to agree to disagree.

What the Fed has done is to influence millions of investors' perceptions of the correct market prices for securities. This may very well bias the market upward, but it does nothing to alter the mechanism of price discovery, which is alive and functioning properly.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:27 am Well, I am going to agree to disagree.
That's fine. Or we can just plain disagree! I'm OK with that too.
What the Fed has done is to influence millions of investors' perceptions of the correct market prices for securities.
If your meaning is that your perception of the correct market price for Treasuries is to guarantee a loss after inflation, then you may be the first Boglehead to take that position! (that I've seen, anyway...)

I think the point of the above-mentioned articles is to give a warning, that if the aforementioned intervention is removed, we can look forward to "bye bye soaring" (as I mentioned)... not to give a prediction... just not seeing why that's unreasonable.
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Bluemnatra
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bluemnatra »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:42 am
I think the point of the above-mentioned articles is to give a warning, that if the aforementioned intervention is removed, we can look forward to "bye bye soaring" (as I mentioned)... not to give a prediction... just not seeing why that's unreasonable.
Seems a reasonable conclusion to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tsohg »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:20 am
vanbogle59 wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:17 am For good or ill, you can only trade on the actual discovered price, not the "true" discovered price.
You can do the latter when the intervention is removed. In that scenario... look out below.
How long should we wait for this to happen? People have been saying this for over a decade. Taking action on any of this stuff would have been seriously ruinous, unless the hypothesis is that the "true value" is somewhere to be found (inflation adjusted) at 2006-2008 levels. :D
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vanbogle59
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Post by vanbogle59 »

tsohg wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:46 am
HanSolo wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:20 am
vanbogle59 wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:17 am For good or ill, you can only trade on the actual discovered price, not the "true" discovered price.
You can do the latter when the intervention is removed. In that scenario... look out below.
How long should we wait for this to happen? People have been saying this for over a decade. Taking action on any of this stuff would have been seriously ruinous, unless the hypothesis is that the "true value" is somewhere to be found (inflation adjusted) at 2006-2008 levels. :D
Isn't "true discovered price" an oxymoron?
The whole point of price-discovery is that there really isn't any "true" price.
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Post by lostdog »

Do I smell a taper down?
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

tsohg wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:46 am How long should we wait for this to happen? People have been saying this for over a decade. Taking action on any of this stuff would have been seriously ruinous, unless the hypothesis is that the "true value" is somewhere to be found (inflation adjusted) at 2006-2008 levels. :D
The action is to make sure one understands the potential downside in case the intervention is removed, and make sure their AA is consistent with either optimistic or pessimistic scenarios as that may imply. Some people have done that already. Some have not.
vanbogle59 wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:51 am Isn't "true discovered price" an oxymoron?
The whole point of price-discovery is that there really isn't any "true" price.
That's what "they" want you to think! Good luck.
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vanbogle59
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Post by vanbogle59 »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:58 am AA is consistent with either optimistic or pessimistic scenarios
That's easy.
I attend this AA meeting when stocks soar.
I attend entirely different AA meetings when they crash.
:sharebeer



:oops: Maybe not the best choice of emojis there.
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lostdog wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:56 am Do I smell a taper down?
Going to call it. Taper in progress...
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Post by Marseille07 »

It's still a very good day even if we taper & end the day at +0.3% or something. ATH territory either way.
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Post by newyorker »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:33 am It's still a very good day even if we taper & end the day at +0.3% or something. ATH territory either way.


DCA keep going on?
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Post by CurlyDave »

lostdog wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:30 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:56 am Do I smell a taper down?
Going to call it. Taper in progress...
It is dangerous to call it this early in the day...
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Post by lostdog »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:38 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:30 am
lostdog wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:56 am Do I smell a taper down?
Going to call it. Taper in progress...
It is dangerous to call it this early in the day...
Good point! :sharebeer
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Post by HanSolo »

Stinky wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:08 am Reports are that Biden will renominate Jay Powell to chair the Fed.
Yes. And for vice chair: Brrrrrrainard.
I think Mr Market will like that.
Yes.
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Marseille07
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Post by Marseille07 »

newyorker wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:37 am DCA keep going on?
Time in the market is more important than timing the market.
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Post by atdharris »

Nasdaq getting creamed now. What a reversal
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Post by jason2459 »

atdharris wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:57 am Nasdaq getting creamed now. What a reversal

Everything is taking a belly flop.
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Who pulled the rug? :twisted:
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lostdog wrote: Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:59 am Who pulled the rug? :twisted:
Turning into a EKG going up and down and up and ....
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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