That's good point, didn't think of that but certainly it's cheaper to get some reassurance here than from a financial advisor or a therapist.rockstar wrote: ↑Thu Nov 18, 2021 5:52 pmMaybe it's a mental exercise. Come here. Post your doubts. Have people tell you that you're ridiculous. And then stay the course. Posting here is much cheaper than therapy. I don't consider it trolling.
U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Getting back to the soaring discussion, normal soaring has resumed for NASDAQ and QQQ, but the S&P has been left in the dust.
The Curly Family Portfolio has vaulted to a new all-time high.
The Curly Family Portfolio has vaulted to a new all-time high.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My Amazon shares have been on a tear lately after sitting flat for a year. Playing catch up, I guess
- vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Backing the truck and heavily buying QQQ in Feb/March seems to be paying off really well.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Indeed. Have you been adding to your position?
"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan"
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes, sir - every month. Better r/r than VTI.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
DW has her fun money in AMZN. I just checked and the 3 year performance is very close to that of NASDAQ.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
jay22 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:21 amYes, sir - every month. Better r/r than VTI.
I've been looking at qqqm and vgt. qqqm is same as qqq with lower ER?
"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan"
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes, same holdings with a lower ER.Bluemnatra wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:29 amjay22 wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:21 amYes, sir - every month. Better r/r than VTI.
I've been looking at qqqm and vgt. qqqm is same as qqq with lower ER?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, with bonds and international acting as a counterweight, the Huckleberry Family portfolio just remains stuck at what looks to be a permanently high plateau.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Remember the "AMZN & AAPL - time to bail?" thread from August? link
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Will turn out to be a very nice end to the week if this holds up. Would finish the day with another ATH.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
There are a whole lot of worse things that could have happened...ImUrHuckleberry wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:35 am
...Well, with bonds and international acting as a counterweight, the Huckleberry Family portfolio just remains stuck at what looks to be a permanently high plateau.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The Agility Family has been scanning the high plateau landscape of our portfolio and is preparing packs to climb the next mountain on the horizon. Could be a mirage of a crater ahead, but the Family is confident the ascent will happen at some point.ImUrHuckleberry wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 10:35 amWell, with bonds and international acting as a counterweight, the Huckleberry Family portfolio just remains stuck at what looks to be a permanently high plateau.
Make sure you check out my list of certifications. The list is short, and there aren't any. - Eric 0. from SMA
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The Stinky family portfolio has all wheel drive.
The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.
The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.
The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Here comes the taper down
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Have you been listening to Ezekiel Saw the Wheel?Stinky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:19 pm The Stinky family portfolio has all wheel drive.
The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.
The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I wonder how much of that international underperformance of late is due to recent USD strengthening. See link.Stinky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:19 pm The Stinky family portfolio has all wheel drive.
The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.
The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Today may be an exception (regarding "moves forward"). VOO is down (not to mention VTI, which is down even more).Stinky wrote: ↑Fri Nov 19, 2021 12:19 pm The Stinky family portfolio has all wheel drive.
The front wheels are driven by domestic stocks. The rear wheels are driven by international equities.
The portfolio moves forward, albeit slowly, because the back wheels are constantly in reverse gear. Today is no exception.
Perhaps one front wheel is Big Tech while the other front wheel is the S&P 495 ... ?
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Reports are that Biden will renominate Jay Powell to chair the Fed.
I think Mr Market will like that.
I think Mr Market will like that.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So far it looks like it.
Please no taper down...
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Once again, futures are looking nice and green this morning. If this holds up through the opening bell and early morning price discovery we could have another good day.
And NASDAQ is still where its at.
And NASDAQ is still where its at.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Price discovery? I keep seeing articles like "Fed's Action Obliterates True Price Discovery Mechanism" and "The Federal Reserve Has Killed Price Discovery".
Be careful what you wish for. "Hello price discovery" = "bye bye soaring".
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Do you have a link to any of those articles?
IMHO the primary function of NYSE, NASDAQ and other stock markets around the world is to provide price discovery. Anyone who tells you different is just publishing clickbait headlines.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
As far as I can tell, it's been a fairly mainstream understanding that the Fed's interference prevents discovery of true market prices, going all the way back to the Greenspan put (see articles cited in the wiki article), and to a much larger degree since then. My opinion is that it seems to be a valid understanding.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 8:47 amDo you have a link to any of those articles?
IMHO the primary function of NYSE, NASDAQ and other stock markets around the world is to provide price discovery. Anyone who tells you different is just publishing clickbait headlines.
I'm not necessarily vouching for these specific articles, just giving examples of available opinions related to the above. If there are contrary opinions available, that would be interesting to know.
Fed's Action Obliterates True Price Discovery Mechanism
The Federal Reserve Has Killed Price Discovery
The Fed Is Deep in Uncharted Waters. Danger Ahead.
The Fed Board Agrees Never to Disagree (WSJ paywall)
"A different view might express concern about the loss of price discovery caused by the Fed's massive intrusion into markets, its effect on widening wealth inequality and the potential for financial instability in the wake of massive liquidity injections."
Last edited by HanSolo on Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Nice morning so far
- vanbogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
For good or ill, you can only trade on the actual discovered price, not the "true" discovered price.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Bogleheads we are GO for launch !
(so far today anyway...)
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(so far today anyway...)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You can do the latter when the intervention is removed. In that scenario... look out below.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:17 am For good or ill, you can only trade on the actual discovered price, not the "true" discovered price.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Money printer go "Brrr!"
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, I am going to agree to disagree.HanSolo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:01 am
As far as I can tell, it's been a fairly mainstream understanding that the Fed's interference prevents discovery of true market prices, going all the way back to the Greenspan put (see articles cited in the wiki article), and to a much larger degree since then. My opinion is that it seems to be a valid understanding.
I'm not necessarily vouching for these specific articles, just giving examples of available opinions related to the above. If there are contrary opinions available, that would be interesting to know.
Fed's Action Obliterates True Price Discovery Mechanism
The Federal Reserve Has Killed Price Discovery
The Fed Is Deep in Uncharted Waters. Danger Ahead.
What the Fed has done is to influence millions of investors' perceptions of the correct market prices for securities. This may very well bias the market upward, but it does nothing to alter the mechanism of price discovery, which is alive and functioning properly.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
That's fine. Or we can just plain disagree! I'm OK with that too.
If your meaning is that your perception of the correct market price for Treasuries is to guarantee a loss after inflation, then you may be the first Boglehead to take that position! (that I've seen, anyway...)What the Fed has done is to influence millions of investors' perceptions of the correct market prices for securities.
I think the point of the above-mentioned articles is to give a warning, that if the aforementioned intervention is removed, we can look forward to "bye bye soaring" (as I mentioned)... not to give a prediction... just not seeing why that's unreasonable.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Seems a reasonable conclusion to me.
"The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan"
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
How long should we wait for this to happen? People have been saying this for over a decade. Taking action on any of this stuff would have been seriously ruinous, unless the hypothesis is that the "true value" is somewhere to be found (inflation adjusted) at 2006-2008 levels.HanSolo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:20 amYou can do the latter when the intervention is removed. In that scenario... look out below.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:17 am For good or ill, you can only trade on the actual discovered price, not the "true" discovered price.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Isn't "true discovered price" an oxymoron?tsohg wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:46 amHow long should we wait for this to happen? People have been saying this for over a decade. Taking action on any of this stuff would have been seriously ruinous, unless the hypothesis is that the "true value" is somewhere to be found (inflation adjusted) at 2006-2008 levels.HanSolo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:20 amYou can do the latter when the intervention is removed. In that scenario... look out below.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:17 am For good or ill, you can only trade on the actual discovered price, not the "true" discovered price.
The whole point of price-discovery is that there really isn't any "true" price.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Do I smell a taper down?
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The action is to make sure one understands the potential downside in case the intervention is removed, and make sure their AA is consistent with either optimistic or pessimistic scenarios as that may imply. Some people have done that already. Some have not.tsohg wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:46 am How long should we wait for this to happen? People have been saying this for over a decade. Taking action on any of this stuff would have been seriously ruinous, unless the hypothesis is that the "true value" is somewhere to be found (inflation adjusted) at 2006-2008 levels.
That's what "they" want you to think! Good luck.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 9:51 am Isn't "true discovered price" an oxymoron?
The whole point of price-discovery is that there really isn't any "true" price.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's still a very good day even if we taper & end the day at +0.3% or something. ATH territory either way.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 22, 2021 10:33 am It's still a very good day even if we taper & end the day at +0.3% or something. ATH territory either way.
DCA keep going on?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It is dangerous to call it this early in the day...
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Good point!
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes. And for vice chair: Brrrrrrainard.
Yes.I think Mr Market will like that.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Nasdaq getting creamed now. What a reversal
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Everything is taking a belly flop.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Who pulled the rug?
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Turning into a EKG going up and down and up and ....
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham