U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

Current Shiller PE Ratio: 39.14 +0.26 (0.66%)

Not far from its all-time high in, uh, 2001.

Bubble? What bubble?
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Well, this is a lot more fun than last month :sharebeer
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

I hope to NOT report a "taper in progress" today.
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anon_investor
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anon_investor »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding... :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

anon_investor wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding... :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe. :happy
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willthrill81
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Maybe, maybe not. Large-cap growth has been on a tear for a long time now, and it could continue that trend for a while to come. Since 2013, Vanguard's VUG has had 3% higher annualized returns than TSM in addition to a smaller maximum drawdown.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 am
anon_investor wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding... :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe. :happy
Yes. Here’s the quote from Oct 7. On that date, S&P closed at 4399.76, Nasdaq at 14,654.02. We’re definitely up since then.
Forester wrote: Thu Oct 07, 2021 10:32 am History may judge October 7 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Last edited by Stinky on Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am I hope to NOT report a "taper in progress" today.
Taper in progress...
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namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

I just mortgaged my house in order to go all in on the S&P. Also doing leverage, 2X, to get super rich. Already emptied bank accounts.

:mrgreen:
Last edited by namajones on Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
Bwlonge
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bwlonge »

I have a large amount of IRA rollover cash to invest and I watched the september dip come and go. I'm honestly a little resentful that all the BS the talking heads cite on down days all of a sudden doesn't seem to matter just a couple weeks later.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 am
anon_investor wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding... :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe. :happy
Don't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction posts
Last edited by HomerJ on Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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MJS
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MJS »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 am
anon_investor wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding... :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe. :happy
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=257573&p=6263309#p6263309

Forester's prognostications are a gift to all our portfolios! He is at #62 in the Boglehead Contest.
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namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

Bwlonge wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I have a large amount of IRA rollover cash to invest and I watched the september dip come and go. I'm honestly a little resentful that all the BS the talking heads cite on down days all of a sudden doesn't seem to matter just a couple weeks later.
When you've been at this a while, you will learn that the news follows events of the day. Have a few down days, and they'll trot out the "bear market" articles they have cued up.

It's a racket. Turn off the news. The worst thing you can do is watch it.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I just mortgaged my house in order to go all in on the S&P. Also doing leverage, 2X, to get super rich. Already emptied bank accounts.

:mrgreen:
Seriously? Or are you kidding. Do tell. Please.
namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

GoldenFinch wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:40 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I just mortgaged my house in order to go all in on the S&P. Also doing leverage, 2X, to get super rich. Already emptied bank accounts.

:mrgreen:
Seriously? Or are you kidding. Do tell. Please.
LOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!

Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.

:mrgreen:
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:40 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I just mortgaged my house in order to go all in on the S&P. Also doing leverage, 2X, to get super rich. Already emptied bank accounts.

:mrgreen:
Seriously? Or are you kidding. Do tell. Please.
LOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!

Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.

:mrgreen:
Are you being serious or joking?
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namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:44 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:40 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I just mortgaged my house in order to go all in on the S&P. Also doing leverage, 2X, to get super rich. Already emptied bank accounts.

:mrgreen:
Seriously? Or are you kidding. Do tell. Please.
LOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!

Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.

:mrgreen:
Are you being serious or joking?
Kidding. Wouldn't it be fun if I weren't, though?

"I remember knowing it was the top when this guy said he mortgage his and his mom's house to put in the market!"
GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:40 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I just mortgaged my house in order to go all in on the S&P. Also doing leverage, 2X, to get super rich. Already emptied bank accounts.

:mrgreen:
Seriously? Or are you kidding. Do tell. Please.
LOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!

Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.

:mrgreen:
Well, interest rates are low. The leveraged funds might be risky business, but who knows!
GoldenFinch
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by GoldenFinch »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:44 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:40 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I just mortgaged my house in order to go all in on the S&P. Also doing leverage, 2X, to get super rich. Already emptied bank accounts.

:mrgreen:
Seriously? Or are you kidding. Do tell. Please.
LOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!

Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.

:mrgreen:
Are you being serious or joking?
Kidding. Wouldn't it be fun if I weren't, though?

"I remember knowing it was the top when this guy said he mortgage his and his mom's house to put in the market!"

Thought you were kidding. :happy
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Bwlonge wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I have a large amount of IRA rollover cash to invest and I watched the september dip come and go. I'm honestly a little resentful that all the BS the talking heads cite on down days all of a sudden doesn't seem to matter just a couple weeks later.
Well, hopefully you've learned a valuable lesson. The talking heads don't know enough. Pundits on the Internet don't know enough. The posters here (including myself) don't know enough.

No one can predict the market.

Pick an Asset Allocation that you can hold through a 50% crash that starts tomorrow and takes 5+ years to recover.

Because it might.

A crash is always coming. But none of us know when. But if you pick an AA that you can hold through the next crash, then you no longer have to worry about or predict the next crash.

If you're young, this still may be an aggressive AA like 90/10, because you have plenty of time to wait for the stock market to crash and come back. You still need an emergency fund if you lose your job, but you don't have to worry about your retirement accounts. You might still have 20+ years before you need to access those.

If you're older and closer to retirement, you might want a more conservative AA like 60/40 or 50/50, because you might need to pull money from your accounts during the next crash, so you want a lot in safer assets to pull from while you wait for the stock side to recover.

But the point is to pick an AA that you can hold through the next crash. Because one is coming. Maybe even tomorrow.

But with the right AA, you no longer have to worry about it.

It's like always carrying around an umbrella, and then someone comes in here yelling "Hey CAPE is super high! The chance of rain is higher today than yesterday!" and you can just shrug, because you already have an umbrella.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:51 am Pick an Asset Allocation that you can hold through a 50% crash that starts tomorrow and takes 5+ years to recover.
Make that 90 or 100% crash.

We need to put the "50% crash" thing to bed. There's no hard stop at 50% or any other percentage.

"But after 50% the world as we know it will end!"

"No, it won't."
Bwlonge
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Bwlonge »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:51 am
Bwlonge wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I have a large amount of IRA rollover cash to invest and I watched the september dip come and go. I'm honestly a little resentful that all the BS the talking heads cite on down days all of a sudden doesn't seem to matter just a couple weeks later.
It's like always carrying around an umbrella, and then someone comes in here yelling "Hey CAPE is super high! The chance of rain is higher today than yesterday!" and you can just shrug, because you already have an umbrella.

Thanks for the reminder. I tried picking stocks for a while, had solid information and those stocks are now doing well but with a lot of volatility. I still managed to lose money on them. I'm coming back to passive investing because the hype around investing just isn't for me. It's still very hard knowing people are getting rich quickly while I am not.
case_of_ennui
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by case_of_ennui »

Bwlonge wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:56 am I'm coming back to passive investing because the hype around investing just isn't for me. It's still very hard knowing people are getting rich quickly while I am not.
There are also people getting poor very quickly while you are not. Those people are just less likely to share their stories.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:52 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:51 am Pick an Asset Allocation that you can hold through a 50% crash that starts tomorrow and takes 5+ years to recover.
Make that 90 or 100% crash.

We need to put the "50% crash" thing to bed. There's no hard stop at 50% or any other percentage.

"But after 50% the world as we know it will end!"

"No, it won't."
Why do you invest in stocks at all then?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by surfstar »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:52 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:51 am Pick an Asset Allocation that you can hold through a 50% crash that starts tomorrow and takes 5+ years to recover.
Make that 90 or 100% crash.

We need to put the "50% crash" thing to bed. There's no hard stop at 50% or any other percentage.

"But after 50% the world as we know it will end!"

"No, it won't."
Well, if you're not using margin loans, leveraging, etc - the hard stop should be at 100%.

I think planning or expecting a 90-100% crash is a bit overzealous like people who want to protect against US hyperinflation b/c they read someone's "article" on ____ website.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:52 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:51 am Pick an Asset Allocation that you can hold through a 50% crash that starts tomorrow and takes 5+ years to recover.
Make that 90 or 100% crash.

We need to put the "50% crash" thing to bed. There's no hard stop at 50% or any other percentage.
50% is a solid starting point based on recent history. I have never said 50% is a hard stop. The point is that the stock side can crash at any time, and take a long time to recover. Plan your AA around how much you need in bonds/cash in case there is a prolonged crash that keeps you from accessing the stock side for multiple years.

The danger isn't a 90% crash... The real danger is how long it takes to recover. Usually it is 1-3 years, but 5-15 is certainly possible.

And yes, there is an implicit assumption here that the market will recover in our remaining lifetime, and not go to zero.

Your 100% crash scenario is technically possible, but all bets are off at that point, so I'm not planning around it. Assuming government bonds/cash are still valuable, I'll have enough for food and hopefully utilities in my paid-off-house. If even cash/government bonds become worthless, we will all be working to survive. I'll deal with that if it happens.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

party over for the soaring.
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namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:38 am party over for the soaring.
I guess mortgaging my house to buy a 3X S&P fund did it.

:?
bugleheadd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bugleheadd »

awaiting Forester's latest predictions
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AnnetteLouisan
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by AnnetteLouisan »

GoldenFinch wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:48 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:44 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:42 am
GoldenFinch wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:40 am

Seriously? Or are you kidding. Do tell. Please.
LOL. Mortgaged my house and my mother's house, too. Tried to talk my sisters into it, but they're too scared!

Thinking of shifting from a 2X leveraged fund to 3X.

:mrgreen:
Are you being serious or joking?
Kidding. Wouldn't it be fun if I weren't, though?

"I remember knowing it was the top when this guy said he mortgage his and his mom's house to put in the market!"

Thought you were kidding. :happy
Whew! I was putting on my scold hat…
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 am
anon_investor wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding... :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe. :happy
Don't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction posts
Okay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:38 am party over for the soaring.
I guess mortgaging my house to buy a 3X S&P fund did it.

:?
In all seriousness, there are more than a few posters on it with mortgage (hopefully at sub 2% range) and invested in 3x leveraged ETF (hopefully with a rebalance strategy and a good exit plan). :twisted:
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 am
anon_investor wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:17 am History may judge October 26 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding... :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe. :happy
Don't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction posts
Okay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"
Well, he does :)
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

pasadena wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:14 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 am
anon_investor wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 9:45 am

May is the key word. Nobody knows nothing... VTSAX and chill, enjoy the ride, all the ups and all the downs, just keep buying and always be holding... :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe. :happy
Don't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction posts
Okay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"
Well, he does :)
Lostdog must've been working hard today. :wink:
Last edited by jarjarM on Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
namajones
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by namajones »

jarjarM wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:09 pm
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:38 am party over for the soaring.
I guess mortgaging my house to buy a 3X S&P fund did it.

:?
In all seriousness, there are more than a few posters on it with mortgage (hopefully at sub 2% range) and invested in 3x leveraged ETF (hopefully with a rebalance strategy and a good exit plan). :twisted:
My exit plan is to sell at the top. :)
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:55 pm
jarjarM wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:09 pm
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:38 am party over for the soaring.
I guess mortgaging my house to buy a 3X S&P fund did it.

:?
In all seriousness, there are more than a few posters on it with mortgage (hopefully at sub 2% range) and invested in 3x leveraged ETF (hopefully with a rebalance strategy and a good exit plan). :twisted:
My exit plan is to sell at the top. :)
Great plan :beer
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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

Bwlonge wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:37 am I have a large amount of IRA rollover cash to invest and I watched the september dip come and go. I'm honestly a little resentful that all the BS the talking heads cite on down days all of a sudden doesn't seem to matter just a couple weeks later.
Listening to the talking heads and then timing the market based upon that drivel... off to the flogging station with you! :)
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MishkaWorries
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MishkaWorries »

namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:55 pm
jarjarM wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:09 pm
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:45 am
lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:38 am party over for the soaring.
I guess mortgaging my house to buy a 3X S&P fund did it.

:?
In all seriousness, there are more than a few posters on it with mortgage (hopefully at sub 2% range) and invested in 3x leveraged ETF (hopefully with a rebalance strategy and a good exit plan). :twisted:
My exit plan is to sell at the top. :)
Wish I thought of that. :oops:
We plan. G-d laughs.
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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 11:08 am
namajones wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:52 am
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:51 am Pick an Asset Allocation that you can hold through a 50% crash that starts tomorrow and takes 5+ years to recover.
Make that 90 or 100% crash.

We need to put the "50% crash" thing to bed. There's no hard stop at 50% or any other percentage.
50% is a solid starting point based on recent history. I have never said 50% is a hard stop. The point is that the stock side can crash at any time, and take a long time to recover. Plan your AA around how much you need in bonds/cash in case there is a prolonged crash that keeps you from accessing the stock side for multiple years.

The danger isn't a 90% crash... The real danger is how long it takes to recover. Usually it is 1-3 years, but 5-15 is certainly possible.

And yes, there is an implicit assumption here that the market will recover in our remaining lifetime, and not go to zero.

Your 100% crash scenario is technically possible, but all bets are off at that point, so I'm not planning around it. Assuming government bonds/cash are still valuable, I'll have enough for food and hopefully utilities in my paid-off-house. If even cash/government bonds become worthless, we will all be working to survive. I'll deal with that if it happens.
I have seeds buried 100 feet underground for that scenario. :twisted:
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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

bugleheadd wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:02 pm awaiting Forester's latest predictions
Yeah, we could use a little juice in this stock market!
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

jarjarM wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:44 pm
pasadena wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:14 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:18 am

It's a joke. Look at Forester's post from October 7, I believe. :happy
Don't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction posts
Okay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"
Well, he does :)
Lostdog must've been working hard today. :wink:
I went late this afternoon.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

AMD and Google did well but both are down after hours.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:44 pm
jarjarM wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:44 pm
pasadena wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 2:14 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 12:18 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 10:38 am

Don't make yourself post like Forester. We don't need more of that, and you don't want new posters to start associating your username with silly prediction posts
Okay, okay. I've done it a few times already. It's getting old and tired anyway, but not as tired as "LoStDoG NeEdS To Go To ThE GyM!"
Well, he does :)
Lostdog must've been working hard today. :wink:
I went late this afternoon.
Well, that explains what happened in the last 15min of the market. :shock:
LookingForward
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LookingForward »

Forester wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:06 am Previous high was nearly two months ago, inflation is over 5%; a true new high would be 4,560.
Adding to the looooong list of wrong predictions, today's S&P closed at 4,575.

Even after moving the goal posts, wrong. Again.

It's like an artist that paints entire canvasses black. The first time or two, one thinks OK, this is a point of view. But then after that, one realizes that the artist isn't really saying anything of merit, and isn't contributing anything.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

LookingForward wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:19 pm
Forester wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:06 am Previous high was nearly two months ago, inflation is over 5%; a true new high would be 4,560.
Adding to the looooong list of wrong predictions, today's S&P closed at 4,575.

Even after moving the goal posts, wrong. Again.

It's like an artist that paints entire canvasses black. The first time or two, one thinks OK, this is a point of view. But then after that, one realizes that the artist isn't really saying anything of merit, and isn't contributing anything.
It doesn't even make sense to multiply S&P500 by inflation. There's nothing to say S&P has to trade exactly by inflation. There's no such thing as "a true new high."
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:30 pm
LookingForward wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:19 pm
Forester wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:06 am Previous high was nearly two months ago, inflation is over 5%; a true new high would be 4,560.
Adding to the looooong list of wrong predictions, today's S&P closed at 4,575.

Even after moving the goal posts, wrong. Again.

It's like an artist that paints entire canvasses black. The first time or two, one thinks OK, this is a point of view. But then after that, one realizes that the artist isn't really saying anything of merit, and isn't contributing anything.
It doesn't even make sense to multiply S&P500 by inflation. There's nothing to say S&P has to trade exactly by inflation. There's no such thing as "a true new high."
There will be companies that after expenses don't make enough to provide their owners a real return after taxes. This happened in the past. This can happen again. What's different now is that I can't buy bonds with a real yield. I do hope at some point I can buy a 30 year treasury bond with a double digit rate. Then, I can sell all of my equities and live off of that for the rest of my life.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

rockstar wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:42 pm There will be companies that after expenses don't make enough to provide their owners a real return after taxes. This happened in the past. This can happen again. What's different now is that I can't buy bonds with a real yield. I do hope at some point I can buy a 30 year treasury bond with a double digit rate. Then, I can sell all of my equities and live off of that for the rest of my life.
I think we have to wait for tapering to see how the yields move. I don't comprehend what the bondholders are doing, they're somehow still betting that inflation will come down.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:30 pm
LookingForward wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:19 pm
Forester wrote: Fri Oct 22, 2021 9:06 am Previous high was nearly two months ago, inflation is over 5%; a true new high would be 4,560.
Adding to the looooong list of wrong predictions, today's S&P closed at 4,575.

Even after moving the goal posts, wrong. Again.

It's like an artist that paints entire canvasses black. The first time or two, one thinks OK, this is a point of view. But then after that, one realizes that the artist isn't really saying anything of merit, and isn't contributing anything.
It doesn't even make sense to multiply S&P500 by inflation. There's nothing to say S&P has to trade exactly by inflation. There's no such thing as "a true new high."
Yeah, kind of silly what he's trying to do. Over time the dividends play a role too so to be accurate he should be factoring in prorated dividends. Seems pointless and unproductive regardless.
jarjarM
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 5:48 pm AMD and Google did well but both are down after hours.
MSFT did well in AH, QQQ could still go up tomorrow.
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Marseille07 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:52 pm
rockstar wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:42 pm There will be companies that after expenses don't make enough to provide their owners a real return after taxes. This happened in the past. This can happen again. What's different now is that I can't buy bonds with a real yield. I do hope at some point I can buy a 30 year treasury bond with a double digit rate. Then, I can sell all of my equities and live off of that for the rest of my life.
I think we have to wait for tapering to see how the yields move. I don't comprehend what the bondholders are doing, they're somehow still betting that inflation will come down.
Both the 5 and 10 year TIPS are predicting inflation near 2.5% for those time frames. Treasury bond yields aren't close.

No idea when inflation will come down. I can only act on what it is today.
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