abuss368 wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:31 pm
I love reading the many Bogleheads who simply say “VTSAX and chill” or “VTI is a modern marvel”.
Add a simple bond fund and you are good to go.
Yes. My version of this is "VBIAX and chill" (Balanced Index Fund).
You have an excellent portfolio. Jack Bogle often noted in his many books that Balanced Index fund would serve the needs of most investors. The Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond would serve the needs of even more.
Remember “simplicity is the master key to financial success”.
I like your portfolio.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
abuss368 wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:31 pm
I love reading the many Bogleheads who simply say “VTSAX and chill” or “VTI is a modern marvel”.
Add a simple bond fund and you are good to go.
Yes. My version of this is "VBIAX and chill" (Balanced Index Fund).
You have an excellent portfolio. Jack Bogle often noted in his many books that Balanced Index fund would serve the needs of most investors. The Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond would serve the needs of even more.
Remember “simplicity is the master key to financial success”.
I like your portfolio.
Tony
Thanks. The above is what I have in taxable. Yes, I understand that many people need a two-fund portfolio for various reasons (e.g., if they want to withdraw from the bond side and not the stock side). But I slice-and-dice in my IRA, so that's where I'll exercise that kind of control, if needed.
abuss368 wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:31 pm
I love reading the many Bogleheads who simply say “VTSAX and chill” or “VTI is a modern marvel”.
Add a simple bond fund and you are good to go.
Yes. My version of this is "VBIAX and chill" (Balanced Index Fund).
You have an excellent portfolio. Jack Bogle often noted in his many books that Balanced Index fund would serve the needs of most investors. The Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond would serve the needs of even more.
Remember “simplicity is the master key to financial success”.
I like your portfolio.
Tony
Thanks. The above is what I have in taxable. Yes, I understand that many people need a two-fund portfolio for various reasons (e.g., if they want to withdraw from the bond side and not the stock side). But I slice-and-dice in my IRA, so that's where I'll exercise that kind of control, if needed.
Love the “VBIAX and chill”!
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Forester wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 12:00 am
On the subject of rebalancing; at the end Q2 I will be 60/40, which will see me through the quite-probable 40% to 60% bear market which will likely unfold from Q3 2021 until around 2023. When I detect the market has bottomed & levelled out I might increase risk.
It would be unfair to label anyone 100% stocks as "greedy" however perhaps "optimistic" is a better label.
Thank you for all that you’ve done this year Forester. I just checked the numbers, on January 1, 2021, my entire investment portfolio totaled 1,000,007. I had just joined the two comma club. Today, 5/7/2021, the totals read 1,300,051, a gain of 30% in just 5 months. A good chunk of the gains has come from crypto, bitcoin and ethereum to be exact. You recall how many times you called the top on bitcoin followed by a massive plunge that has yet to materialize?
The rest of the gains have come up from the Boglehead portion of my portfolio, plus some other trades that turned out well. A two year bear market you say?
Now I'm gonna have to go out and buy me one of them Back'em Up Only trucks!
MindBogler wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 11:15 am
I'm not typically much for prognosticating, but I can't help but feel like we're experiencing a melt-up right now.
Shush, none of that, unless you are really Forester. I have RSUs vesting in a few weeks.
Melt up can go on for a really long time. Look at the '98-'00 period.
Exactly right.
The Curly Family Portfolio is chock full of QQQ with 15% trailing stops on half of it.
We are going to ride this bull until it falls over from exhaustion.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
MindBogler wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 11:15 am
I'm not typically much for prognosticating, but I can't help but feel like we're experiencing a melt-up right now.
Shush, none of that, unless you are really Forester. I have RSUs vesting in a few weeks.
Melt up can go on for a really long time. Look at the '98-'00 period.
Exactly right.
The Curly Family Portfolio is chock full of QQQ with 15% trailing stops on half of it.
We are going to ride this bull until it falls over from exhaustion.
Thanks -- I just looked up what "trailing stops" are and am now considering adding a stop to my small QQQ position. That way I don't have to check the price daily, right? It's a form of exit strategy.
Does the trailing stop mean to sell the ENTIRE holding? Or can you set it for say "sell 50% of my QQQ holding if it falls below 15% of the peak price" ? That would make sense to me.
abuss368 wrote: ↑Fri May 07, 2021 10:31 pm
I love reading the many Bogleheads who simply say “VTSAX and chill” or “VTI is a modern marvel”.
Add a simple bond fund and you are good to go.
Yes. My version of this is "VBIAX and chill" (Balanced Index Fund).
You have an excellent portfolio. Jack Bogle often noted in his many books that Balanced Index fund would serve the needs of most investors. The Two Fund Portfolio of Total Stock and Total Bond would serve the needs of even more.
Remember “simplicity is the master key to financial success”.
I like your portfolio.
Tony
Thanks. The above is what I have in taxable. Yes, I understand that many people need a two-fund portfolio for various reasons (e.g., if they want to withdraw from the bond side and not the stock side). But I slice-and-dice in my IRA, so that's where I'll exercise that kind of control, if needed.
Just looked up what the Fidelity equivalent to the one-fund VBIAX is. There's a Fidelity Balanced Fund, but it has a bit of international.. and the ER is 0.52% (higher than VBIAX at 0.07%ER). VBIAX seems like a great simple choice!
CurlyDave wrote: ↑Sat May 08, 2021 9:38 am
...Exactly right.
The Curly Family Portfolio is chock full of QQQ with 15% trailing stops on half of it.
We are going to ride this bull until it falls over from exhaustion.
Thanks -- I just looked up what "trailing stops" are and am now considering adding a stop to my small QQQ position. That way I don't have to check the price daily, right? It's a form of exit strategy.
Does the trailing stop mean to sell the ENTIRE holding? Or can you set it for say "sell 50% of my QQQ holding if it falls below 15% of the peak price" ? That would make sense to me.
At my brokerage (TD Ameritrade) the trailing stop is set for a specific number of shares of whatever stock you hold. So if I have 100 shares of QQQ I can set it to sell 50 shares if the price drops 15% below the highest price after I set the stop. I can also set stops for a dollar value of drop, but I like the percentage ones better. I could also set it for 70 shares, 40 shares, or any other integer number I wish.
I think most brokerages have a similar order. Vanguard is the only one I can think of that does not allow trailing stops.
While you do not have to check price daily, the longest time a stop can be set for at TDA is 3 months, BUT if anything that might effect the stock price happens, it is cancelled. Paying a dividend is one of the things that will cancel a trailing stop -- no big deal it doesn't cost anything, but the order has to be placed again.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
I use trailing stops for RSUs but not for my Boglehead portfolio. Since my cash deployment strategy tries to buy the dip, I don't really need protection for the downturns; I just keep loading up on the cheap.
Why is the market soaring on a Sunday? The market should be at rest. Dear market, be at peace today for tomorrow's propulsion awaits for thee.
And dear, sweet 10yr Treasury, I know all too well your range-bound woes, how you yearn to break free! Does the path lead you to 2%, as Treasury-market bears foresee?
"Bond Traders See a Path to 2% Yields Lurking in U.S. Jobs Miss" link
I haven't done this yet (and may not ever), but is anyone holding cash at the moment? Normally I never ever market time, but I just *wonder* about how much the market is supported by very low rates / pricing in all the good news now.
**I realize the same could have been said at almost any time for the last 10 years [or more]** --> This is [one reason] why I question my own judgment and probably will not "market time" or worry about anything.
For what it's worth: I wouldn't sell anything. Maybe I'll just put some more $ into safe (no-yield) assets, which is the standard boglehead suggestion when one worries about equity risk. I haven't been willing to do that due to the no-yield environment. And: this is only my personal brokerage I am talking about, not a retirement account or something where I would turn on again the dollar-cost-average and have to "get back in" again at some point.
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
BuyAndHoldOn wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:04 am
I haven't done this yet (and may not ever), but is anyone holding cash at the moment? Normally I never ever market time, but I just *wonder* about how much the market is supported by very low rates / pricing in all the good news now.
**I realize the same could have been said at almost any time for the last 10 years [or more]** --> This is [one reason] why I question my own judgment and probably will not "market time" or worry about anything.
For what it's worth: I wouldn't sell anything. Maybe I'll just put some more $ into safe (no-yield) assets, which is the standard boglehead suggestion when one worries about equity risk. I haven't been willing to do that due to the no-yield environment. And: this is only my personal brokerage I am talking about, not a retirement account or something where I would turn on again the dollar-cost-average and have to "get back in" again at some point.
I'm holding cash, but it's part of my allocation. It is not dry powder that is waiting for a market drop.
BuyAndHoldOn wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:04 am
I haven't done this yet (and may not ever), but is anyone holding cash at the moment? Normally I never ever market time, but I just *wonder* about how much the market is supported by very low rates / pricing in all the good news now.
**I realize the same could have been said at almost any time for the last 10 years [or more]** --> This is [one reason] why I question my own judgment and probably will not "market time" or worry about anything.
For what it's worth: I wouldn't sell anything. Maybe I'll just put some more $ into safe (no-yield) assets, which is the standard boglehead suggestion when one worries about equity risk. I haven't been willing to do that due to the no-yield environment. And: this is only my personal brokerage I am talking about, not a retirement account or something where I would turn on again the dollar-cost-average and have to "get back in" again at some point.
I'm holding cash, but it's part of my allocation. It is not dry powder that is waiting for a market drop.
How do you handle the loss to inflation, at least mentally? --> That's what gets me. I suppose it's easy to contribute more $, and that's the compensation?
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
BuyAndHoldOn wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:04 am
I haven't done this yet (and may not ever), but is anyone holding cash at the moment? Normally I never ever market time, but I just *wonder* about how much the market is supported by very low rates / pricing in all the good news now.
**I realize the same could have been said at almost any time for the last 10 years [or more]** --> This is [one reason] why I question my own judgment and probably will not "market time" or worry about anything.
For what it's worth: I wouldn't sell anything. Maybe I'll just put some more $ into safe (no-yield) assets, which is the standard boglehead suggestion when one worries about equity risk. I haven't been willing to do that due to the no-yield environment. And: this is only my personal brokerage I am talking about, not a retirement account or something where I would turn on again the dollar-cost-average and have to "get back in" again at some point.
I'm holding cash, but it's part of my allocation. It is not dry powder that is waiting for a market drop.
How do you handle the loss to inflation, at least mentally? --> That's what gets me. I suppose it's easy to contribute more $, and that's the compensation?
I have a spreadsheet that shows me how my cash allocation does under various what-ifs, like "what if the Fed never raises rates and they change target to 3%" and this way I can see if my portfolio can handle that (meaning, if I can still meet my financial goals.) Also you can run your allocation with desired cash level through Vanguard Nest Egg Calculator link
BuyAndHoldOn wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:04 am
I haven't done this yet (and may not ever), but is anyone holding cash at the moment? Normally I never ever market time, but I just *wonder* about how much the market is supported by very low rates / pricing in all the good news now.
**I realize the same could have been said at almost any time for the last 10 years [or more]** --> This is [one reason] why I question my own judgment and probably will not "market time" or worry about anything.
For what it's worth: I wouldn't sell anything. Maybe I'll just put some more $ into safe (no-yield) assets, which is the standard boglehead suggestion when one worries about equity risk. I haven't been willing to do that due to the no-yield environment. And: this is only my personal brokerage I am talking about, not a retirement account or something where I would turn on again the dollar-cost-average and have to "get back in" again at some point.
It seems you might not be a BuyAndHoldOn type investor at all, no matter your screen name! At least you are carefully identifying activities you might do.
BTW, not sure I agree with this statement of yours:
Maybe I'll just put some more $ into safe (no-yield) assets, which is the standard boglehead suggestion when one worries about equity risk.
I don't think that is a standard BH suggestion at all. The idea is to pick an AA that considers your specifics. I don't think most BHs make changes because of market risk on the fly. It is true some BHs do change their AA if they cannot stomach the markets' volatility. But the idea is to find that AA that gets you thru without changing based strictly on your feelings.
What does your IPS tell you? Why not find the AA that would suit you no matter the market direction?
What is your current AA?
Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go." - Mark Twain
BuyAndHoldOn wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:04 am
I haven't done this yet (and may not ever), but is anyone holding cash at the moment? Normally I never ever market time, but I just *wonder* about how much the market is supported by very low rates / pricing in all the good news now.
**I realize the same could have been said at almost any time for the last 10 years [or more]** --> This is [one reason] why I question my own judgment and probably will not "market time" or worry about anything.
For what it's worth: I wouldn't sell anything. Maybe I'll just put some more $ into safe (no-yield) assets, which is the standard boglehead suggestion when one worries about equity risk. I haven't been willing to do that due to the no-yield environment. And: this is only my personal brokerage I am talking about, not a retirement account or something where I would turn on again the dollar-cost-average and have to "get back in" again at some point.
It seems you might not be a BuyAndHoldOn type investor at all, no matter your screen name! At least you are carefully identifying activities you might do.
BTW, not sure I agree with this statement of yours:
Maybe I'll just put some more $ into safe (no-yield) assets, which is the standard boglehead suggestion when one worries about equity risk.
I don't think that is a standard BH suggestion at all. The idea is to pick an AA that considers your specifics. I don't think most BHs make changes because of market risk on the fly. It is true some BHs do change their AA if they cannot stomach the markets' volatility. But the idea is to find that AA that gets you thru without changing based strictly on your feelings.
What does your IPS tell you? Why not find the AA that would suit you no matter the market direction?
What is your current AA?
Broken Man 1999
92% stocks (US/non-US at about 50%) and 8% in Emerging Market bonds. I have no set AA that I adhere to, however; I'm flexible. I had about 10% [based on $ I wanted to invest in those assets, not a set %] in "safe" fixed income heading into 2020, but when yields continued to drop (prices rose), I took the money out and put it into other things.
I will probably continue to dollar-cost-average everywhere, even in my personal brokerage, but I do want to be more prepared for life events / potential re-balancing opportunities in the future. Long dated treasuries (like TLT) are something I would like to have, but I need to see some higher yields first (I realize no one can predict the precise path of interest rates and the economy and so forth).
I’d trade it all for a little more | -C Montgomery Burns
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:37 pm
Feels like a bubble, but we have no choice but to ride along. I'm prepared either way.
Are you doing DCA as well? I agree. No other options than ride it out.
I am, though my DCA isn't really fixed on a set schedule. I use simple TA which works like "buy after a red day" more or less. This is how I'm preparing for a bear market as this signal certainly fires more often during a bear.
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:37 pm
Feels like a bubble, but we have no choice but to ride along. I'm prepared either way.
Are you doing DCA as well? I agree. No other options than ride it out.
I am, though my DCA isn't really fixed on a set schedule. I use simple TA which works like "buy after a red day" more or less. This is how I'm preparing for a bear market as this signal certainly fires more often during a bear.
Question is... will you pull out if theres many bear market signal?
Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:37 pm
Feels like a bubble, but we have no choice but to ride along. I'm prepared either way.
Are you doing DCA as well? I agree. No other options than ride it out.
I am, though my DCA isn't really fixed on a set schedule. I use simple TA which works like "buy after a red day" more or less. This is how I'm preparing for a bear market as this signal certainly fires more often during a bear.
Question is... will you pull out if theres many bear market signal?
Not at all. The point of DCA is to average down so you can buy more shares cheaper, which bear markets allow you to do.
rchmx1 wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:02 pm
Futures looking solid. Hopefully they'll hold through market's open.
Weird. Apparently futures looked solid last night but this morning it's, "Tech Sends Stocks Down With Inflation Angst Rising".
“The strong inflation figures that are expected this week could change the market narrative and raise concerns about the risk that inflation pressures are picking up significantly, even if the real economic recovery will remain far from complete for some time,” according to Credit Agricole SA strategists led by Jean-Francois Paren. “If this is the case, it could weigh on risk appetite in the coming days and weeks.”
rchmx1 wrote: ↑Sun May 09, 2021 9:02 pm
Futures looking solid. Hopefully they'll hold through market's open.
Weird. Apparently futures looked solid last night but this morning it's, "Tech Sends Stocks Down With Inflation Angst Rising".
“The strong inflation figures that are expected this week could change the market narrative and raise concerns about the risk that inflation pressures are picking up significantly, even if the real economic recovery will remain far from complete for some time,” according to Credit Agricole SA strategists led by Jean-Francois Paren. “If this is the case, it could weigh on risk appetite in the coming days and weeks.”
Forester wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 12:05 pm
Lumber & copper down, Gold up. Bearish if this continues for May. Inflation story seems overdone, all these commodities are due a healthy correction.
Forester wrote: ↑Mon May 10, 2021 12:05 pm
Lumber & copper down, Gold up. Bearish if this continues for May. Inflation story seems overdone, all these commodities are due a healthy correction.
So you are bullish on the S&P 500 then?
No I don't think it will do much over the next five years but it is better diversified across sectors than the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq is a one-trick pony and the S&P 500 will return to being viewed as the senior US index whereas some commentators are trying to bestow that title to the big tech index.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed May 12, 2021 8:42 pm
Stock futures inch higher after Dow’s worst day since January.
Keep soaring US stocks!
Yes! Back to soaring!
Bah humbug. I don’t want soaring today. I want soaring 5-10 years from now when my wife finally retires.
Actually, I think our portfolio is finally large enough that our monthly savings is making less and less of a difference so maybe I do want soaring today.
Jobless claims a tad better than consensus.
Consensus 475 K
Actual 473 K
PPI report shows more evidence of supply-side driven price pressures. See link for historical PPI bar chart. link
"Another inflation gauge comes in hot with producer prices jumping 6.2% in April from a year ago" link
Nasdaq coming in hot!
Premarket:
Apple +0.68%
Amazon +1.17%
Google +0.97%
Last edited by Robot Monster on Thu May 13, 2021 8:24 am, edited 4 times in total.
gonefishing01 wrote: ↑Thu May 13, 2021 8:01 am
Will we see a dip-buyers FOMO feedback loop today?
FOMO feeding fest, with a particular craving for tasty apples. Apple +2.13%.
Hoping for an RGD (Really Good Day) which I would define as +2% or more.
NASDAQ can do it.
My wish for the day is that Disney not tank after hours today when they report earnings, since I increased my position a lot just yesterday.
Edit: And...doh!!...Disney plummets -4.11% after hours. "Disney earnings blow away estimates as theme parks return, but streaming slowdown sends stock lower". Oh well. Now let's see how long it will take to regain the $180 price I bought at yesterday.
Last edited by Robot Monster on Thu May 13, 2021 6:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.