U.S. stocks continue to soar!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
At this rate S&P 500 will be 20,000 by end of year
I know we are in trouble when my friend scoffed at the market being up "only .77%", his words "thats not much"
I know we are in trouble when my friend scoffed at the market being up "only .77%", his words "thats not much"
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If it makes you feel better, my market was up only .37% today.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:33 am At this rate S&P 500 will be 20,000 by end of year
I know we are in trouble when my friend scoffed at the market being up "only .77%", his words "thats not much"
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
ok so we have one for stocks soaring and one for bitcoin. can someone please start one for house prices?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
my prediction was a modest 5400.stocknoob4111 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:33 am At this rate S&P 500 will be 20,000 by end of year
I know we are in trouble when my friend scoffed at the market being up "only .77%", his words "thats not much"
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The woods are lovely, dark and deep,
But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Keep buttering my bread, U.S. stocks!
"The broker said the stock was 'poised to move.' Silly me, I thought he meant up." ― Randy Thurman
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.watchnerd wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:13 pmMelt up is apparently now just a run of the mill, not even particularly high, up closing.
So we'll need a new term for a real melt up.
We plan. G-d laughs.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I rather like that term. “Blow-off top”.MishkaWorries wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 amI'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.watchnerd wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:13 pmMelt up is apparently now just a run of the mill, not even particularly high, up closing.
So we'll need a new term for a real melt up.
Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air.
I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I recall back in late 1999 a coworker telling me that the bus driver was pumping Lucent stock.
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle |
Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Same. This is a wild guess and not actionable.Stinky wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 amI rather like that term. “Blow-off top”.MishkaWorries wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 amI'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.watchnerd wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:13 pmMelt up is apparently now just a run of the mill, not even particularly high, up closing.
So we'll need a new term for a real melt up.
Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air.
I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close.
We'll have a bull market for a few years at least. People are ready to spend, travel, eat out and splurge their cash.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || Taxable-VTI/VXUS || IRA-VT/BNDW
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Optimally we'll have multiple bubbles poping at different times as we ramp up the main street economy. Housing, NFTs, SPACs, etc while consumer goods and manufacturing start booming. Those of us indexing across sectors will have minimal impact.lostdog wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:44 amSame. This is a wild guess and not actionable.Stinky wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 amI rather like that term. “Blow-off top”.MishkaWorries wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 amI'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.
Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air.
I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close.
We'll have a bull market for a few years at least. People are ready to spend, travel, eat out and splurge their cash.
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm not saying this is a blow-off top. I was referencing Watchnerd's request for a new term for a real melt up.lostdog wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:44 amSame. This is a wild guess and not actionable.Stinky wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 amI rather like that term. “Blow-off top”.MishkaWorries wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 amI'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.
Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air.
I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close.
We'll have a bull market for a few years at least. People are ready to spend, travel, eat out and splurge their cash.
We plan. G-d laughs.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My dental hygienist started talking to me about Qualcomm stock back then.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Some of us have never stopped talking about it in spite of our teeth and a little consolidation period. Of course, reinvesting the dividends along the way helped...
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel |
"Pick a bushel, save a peck!" - Grandpa
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So if you bought at the earlier peak it took only fifteen years to recoup your losses, might be a bit less with the dividends. A little consolidation period?CyclingDuo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:32 amSome of us have never stopped talking about it in spite of our teeth and a little consolidation period. Of course, reinvesting the dividends along the way helped...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Are you bullish on the Nasdaq if we get a soar of interest rates in response to a jump in inflation? See: "Market bull Jeremy Siegel warns the Nasdaq rebound will unravel, favors value stocks" link Siegel expects "a strong inflationary year. I think 4% to 5%,” linkMarseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:22 amGood, we can still buy Nasdaq on the cheap, excellent.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:05 am Happy the S&P broke through another threshold, but am sad that our Nasdaq and small-cap friends are left out of the party, and have to sit out in the cold with international stocks.
I understand not everyone expects higher inflation. One of the talking heads on Bloomberg Real Yield went so far as to liken the wait for inflation to Waiting for Godot.
Worth noting that even the ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “You know, the U.S. is probably going to hit it’s inflation targets rather soon." link
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm actually neither bullish nor bearish. My game is to simply load up on the cheaper asset, whichever it is (SPX or NASDAQ).Robot Monster wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:11 am Are you bullish on the Nasdaq if we get a soar of interest rates in response to a jump in inflation? See: "Market bull Jeremy Siegel warns the Nasdaq rebound will unravel, favors value stocks" link Siegel expects "a strong inflationary year. I think 4% to 5%,” link
I understand not everyone expects higher inflation. One of the talking heads on Bloomberg Real Yield went so far as to liken the wait for inflation to Waiting for Godot.
Worth noting that even the ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “You know, the U.S. is probably going to hit it’s inflation targets rather soon." link
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Perhaps you missed my use of this particular smilie after I said little consolidation period ( )? That last one was a wink, by the way...
We did not buy at the peak according to our brokerage account records, but have been long term holders of Qualcomm as there was an awful lot of chatter about CDMA, the patents and licensing of the technology over on the message forums over at The Motley Fool and Silicon Investor in 1997, 1998, and 1999. Every earnings report and earnings call was dissected bit by bit each quarter. Discussion and excitement got pretty hot and heavy throughout the latter part of 1998 - especially after the July earnings release with the amazing growth and then that built up heading into 1999, so I remember what you were talking about regarding Qualcomm and the dental hygienist. There were message board posters that were actually 100% in Qualcomm or JDSU or a combo of the two who were posting on the forums and announcing they were retiring early and going off into the sunset with their non-diverse portfolios.
I, too, was shaking my head in disbelief how the stock took off and all of the stock splits and behavioral mistakes that were taking place from investors, myself included on some other stocks. Our kids, my parents, my wife's parents all had shares of Qualcomm (we even inherited the QCOM shares from our parents with the step up in cost basis about 5 years ago). Qualcomm was just one holding of a rather diverse portfolio. However, for my discipline when investing in technology stocks, the CDMA technology (and patents) vs. the GSM technology for the longer haul captivated me enough to just let it ride all of these years. In terms of the technology adoption life cycle and implications for Qualcomm's CDMA technology from those days in 1997/98/99 - I had no choice but to hold to see if CDMA would ever be as widely adopted as the potential indicated. It sure did take a long time for investors to finally start seeing the fruits of it all, but technology investing is not for everyone as it is a ruthless game and the better technology does not always win out.
No worries, we keep a large chunk of our investments in the index funds.
CyclingDuo
"Save like a pessimist, invest like an optimist." - Morgan Housel |
"Pick a bushel, save a peck!" - Grandpa
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Sorry, I missed the smilies. I didn’t invest in QCOM or any other individual issues back then, except for my employer’s stock in my 401(k) in which I was in 100% (now sold and in the S&P 500). But I came late to the game in the Firsthand Funds and Janus Funds in which I incurred heavy losses in the ensuing months. Marry in haste, repent at leisure, as the saying goes, and so true in my case. I learned my lesson, as many have. Except for AAPL in my taxable, which I’m loathe to sell due to capital gains taxation, I’m in all index funds now.CyclingDuo wrote: ↑Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:50 amPerhaps you missed my use of this particular smilie after I said little consolidation period ( )? That last one was a wink, by the way...
We did not buy at the peak according to our brokerage account records, but have been long term holders of Qualcomm as there was an awful lot of chatter about CDMA, the patents and licensing of the technology over on the message forums over at The Motley Fool and Silicon Investor in 1997, 1998, and 1999. Every earnings report and earnings call was dissected bit by bit each quarter. Discussion and excitement got pretty hot and heavy throughout the latter part of 1998 - especially after the July earnings release with the amazing growth and then that built up heading into 1999, so I remember what you were talking about regarding Qualcomm and the dental hygienist. There were message board posters that were actually 100% in Qualcomm or JDSU or a combo of the two who were posting on the forums and announcing they were retiring early and going off into the sunset with their non-diverse portfolios.
I, too, was shaking my head in disbelief how the stock took off and all of the stock splits and behavioral mistakes that were taking place from investors, myself included on some other stocks. Our kids, my parents, my wife's parents all had shares of Qualcomm (we even inherited the QCOM shares from our parents with the step up in cost basis about 5 years ago). Qualcomm was just one holding of a rather diverse portfolio. However, for my discipline when investing in technology stocks, the CDMA technology (and patents) vs. the GSM technology for the longer haul captivated me enough to just let it ride all of these years. In terms of the technology adoption life cycle and implications for Qualcomm's CDMA technology from those days in 1997/98/99 - I had no choice but to hold to see if CDMA would ever be as widely adopted as the potential indicated. It sure did take a long time for investors to finally start seeing the fruits of it all, but technology investing is not for everyone as it is a ruthless game and the better technology does not always win out.
No worries, we keep a large chunk of our investments in the index funds.
CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
What if it goes higher?
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If it goes higher, buy it back and grab the winner!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Marketing timing and security selection has been proven time and again to not be a successful strategy.
Instead of searching for the needle for the haystack, buy the haystack.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
After that up close of the NASDAQ on Fri, how did ARKK end up being behind NASDAQ?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I was thinking this market was a bit....euphoric feeling. So I went to check P/E ratios based on forward looking earnings estimates. Turns out they have fallen from 33 a year ago to a mere 21 today.
That's right, at a P/E of 21 based on forward earnings estimates the S&P 500 actually might still look *cheap* in the context of 1.7% ten year treasuries and even reasonably priced if interest rates go up
https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_p ... d_estimate
That's right, at a P/E of 21 based on forward earnings estimates the S&P 500 actually might still look *cheap* in the context of 1.7% ten year treasuries and even reasonably priced if interest rates go up
https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_p ... d_estimate
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Shiller has his own take on that.
"Examined on their own, stock valuations are at giddy levels, yet they are far more attractive when viewed side by side with bonds. That’s why it is so hard to determine whether the stock market is dangerously high or a relative bargain." -- from "Making Sense of Elevated Stock Market Prices -- Shares are very expensive, but so are bonds. Even at current prices, the economist Robert J. Shiller says, it is reasonable to keep some wealth in stocks" link
It's noteworthy Shiller begins his concluding paragraph with "The markets may well be dangerously high right now..." and in the article warns against being overexposed to equity risk.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If it goes higher, we back up the truck. That's how it works, right?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.Alchemist wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:11 am I was thinking this market was a bit....euphoric feeling. So I went to check P/E ratios based on forward looking earnings estimates. Turns out they have fallen from 33 a year ago to a mere 21 today.
That's right, at a P/E of 21 based on forward earnings estimates the S&P 500 actually might still look *cheap* in the context of 1.7% ten year treasuries and even reasonably priced if interest rates go up
https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_p ... d_estimate
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes, this is true.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:47 pmThe short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
Sometimes when a company announces earnings, the financial press will compare earnings, or revenue, or something else, to “consensus estimates”. That “consensus” view is developed by looking at the earnings forecasts of all the analysts that follow a certain stock.
I expect that individual company “consensus” views can be rolled up into an expectation for the stock market as a whole.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
CurlyDave wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:47 pmThe short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
Thanks! So it likely then that the estimates are based on the consensus analysis of the largest companies that currently dominate an index?Stinky wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:08 pm Yes, this is true.
Sometimes when a company announces earnings, the financial press will compare earnings, or revenue, or something else, to “consensus estimates”. That “consensus” view is developed by looking at the earnings forecasts of all the analysts that follow a certain stock.
I expect that individual company “consensus” views can be rolled up into an expectation for the stock market as a whole.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think it more than just the largest companies. For instance, when I look up the #300 company in the S&P 500 (TTWO) there are 18 analysts who have reported on the company in the last 3 months. The #502 company (FLS) (There are actually 505 stocks in the S&P 500) has had 6 analyst reports in the last 3 months. Just for comparison, the #1 company (AAPL) is followed by 25 analysts and the #3 company (AMZN) is followed by 32 analysts.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:48 pmCurlyDave wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:47 pmThe short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.Thanks! So it likely then that the estimates are based on the consensus analysis of the largest companies that currently dominate an index?Stinky wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:08 pm Yes, this is true.
Sometimes when a company announces earnings, the financial press will compare earnings, or revenue, or something else, to “consensus estimates”. That “consensus” view is developed by looking at the earnings forecasts of all the analysts that follow a certain stock.
I expect that individual company “consensus” views can be rolled up into an expectation for the stock market as a whole.
IMHO even 6 analysts is enough to get a reasonable consensus earnings estimate, so for S&P earnings estimates, it is not just the largest companies, it is all of the companies.
Admittedly a limited sample, but I think enough to give us an idea.
On edit: The #2 company (MSFT) has only 23 analysts following it.
A very curious result: why does AMZN get more love than AAPL, which gets more than MSFT?
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
That's very interesting - thanks for answering my questions!CurlyDave wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:40 pmI think it more than just the largest companies. For instance, when I look up the #300 company in the S&P 500 (TTWO) there are 18 analysts who have reported on the company in the last 3 months. The #502 company (FLS) (There are actually 505 stocks in the S&P 500) has had 6 analyst reports in the last 3 months. Just for comparison, the #1 company (AAPL) is followed by 25 analysts and the #3 company (AMZN) is followed by 32 analysts.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:48 pmCurlyDave wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:47 pmThe short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.Thanks! So it likely then that the estimates are based on the consensus analysis of the largest companies that currently dominate an index?Stinky wrote: ↑Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:08 pm Yes, this is true.
Sometimes when a company announces earnings, the financial press will compare earnings, or revenue, or something else, to “consensus estimates”. That “consensus” view is developed by looking at the earnings forecasts of all the analysts that follow a certain stock.
I expect that individual company “consensus” views can be rolled up into an expectation for the stock market as a whole.
IMHO even 6 analysts is enough to get a reasonable consensus earnings estimate, so for S&P earnings estimates, it is not just the largest companies, it is all of the companies.
Admittedly a limited sample, but I think enough to give us an idea.
On edit: The #2 company (MSFT) has only 23 analysts following it.
A very curious result: why does AMZN get more love than AAPL, which gets more than MSFT?
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;
A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
As to your "forecast" - Sure, it's not unthinkable that there will be a drawdown that will cut equity values in half. It's happened before, and it will happen again. But, what "problems will be uncovered in the fall"? Just curious what you have in mind?Forester wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:26 am Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;
A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
As to your choice of words - The first definition of "forecast" on Dictionary.com is "to predict (a future condition or occurrence)". Sounds to me like using the word "forecast" instead of "prediction" is a distinction without a difference.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Now that the resident groundhog has surfaced, we're back in the saddle!
Lighten your wallet, folks, 'cause there's money to be made in this market.
Lighten your wallet, folks, 'cause there's money to be made in this market.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
He's yankin your chain, man.Stinky wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:15 amAs to your "forecast" - Sure, it's not unthinkable that there will be a drawdown that will cut equity values in half. It's happened before, and it will happen again. But, what "problems will be uncovered in the fall"? Just curious what you have in mind?Forester wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:26 am Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;
A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
As to your choice of words - The first definition of "forecast" on Dictionary.com is "to predict (a future condition or occurrence)". Sounds to me like using the word "forecast" instead of "prediction" is a distinction without a difference.
You took the bait.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
CNBC has another Suze Orman warning up, and it makes a nice pairing with her warning from a year ago.
From April 7, 2021
Suze Orman: The market ‘reminds me of 2000,’ and you need to be ready for a correction. Here’s how you should prepare link
From May 20, 2020
Suze Orman says she made a ‘serious sum’ buying the coronavirus crash — now she’s warning of another drop link
Oh, have to add this as a bonus. Jim Cramer. Bad call! link
From April 7, 2021
Suze Orman: The market ‘reminds me of 2000,’ and you need to be ready for a correction. Here’s how you should prepare link
From May 20, 2020
Suze Orman says she made a ‘serious sum’ buying the coronavirus crash — now she’s warning of another drop link
Oh, have to add this as a bonus. Jim Cramer. Bad call! link
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
One of these days she’ll be right and will be hailed as a prophet. That’s what happened to Elaine Garzarelli after her one right call before the crash of ‘87. She rode that one for years. Remember the crash of ‘96 that she predicted? I don’t either, it came four years late.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:33 am CNBC has another Suze Orman warning up, and it makes a nice pairing with her warning from a year ago.
From April 7, 2021
Suze Orman: The market ‘reminds me of 2000,’ and you need to be ready for a correction. Here’s how you should prepare link
From May 20, 2020
Suze Orman says she made a ‘serious sum’ buying the coronavirus crash — now she’s warning of another drop link
Oh, have to add this as a bonus. Jim Cramer. Bad call! link
Last edited by Nicolas on Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I didn't get the impression that Suze was 'making a call'.Nicolas wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:54 amOne of these days she’ll be right and will be hailed as a prophet. That’s what happened to Elaine Garzarelli after her one right call before the crash of ‘87. She rode that one for years.Robot Monster wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:33 am CNBC has another Suze Orman warning up, and it makes a nice pairing with her warning from a year ago.
From April 7, 2021
Suze Orman: The market ‘reminds me of 2000,’ and you need to be ready for a correction. Here’s how you should prepare link
From May 20, 2020
Suze Orman says she made a ‘serious sum’ buying the coronavirus crash — now she’s warning of another drop link
Oh, have to add this as a bonus. Jim Cramer. Bad call! link
She said you need to be prepared and have an EF.
Is that controversial?
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
While I agree there might be nothing controversial about her advice, still, she is crystal balling a bit when she says, "another crash seems imminent". And there is the possibility she will scare people by saying that.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I predict a medium-term forecast of 82% drop to Forester's portfolio.Forester wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:26 am Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;
A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
Now everyone's happy.
-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
S&P 500 currently in the green. +0.03%
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
He's just a troll at this point. Don't feed them.watchnerd wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:02 amHe's yankin your chain, man.Stinky wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:15 amAs to your "forecast" - Sure, it's not unthinkable that there will be a drawdown that will cut equity values in half. It's happened before, and it will happen again. But, what "problems will be uncovered in the fall"? Just curious what you have in mind?Forester wrote: ↑Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:26 am Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;
A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
As to your choice of words - The first definition of "forecast" on Dictionary.com is "to predict (a future condition or occurrence)". Sounds to me like using the word "forecast" instead of "prediction" is a distinction without a difference.
You took the bait.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
And back to green.