U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

At this rate S&P 500 will be 20,000 by end of year

I know we are in trouble when my friend scoffed at the market being up "only .77%", his words "thats not much"
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:33 am At this rate S&P 500 will be 20,000 by end of year

I know we are in trouble when my friend scoffed at the market being up "only .77%", his words "thats not much"
If it makes you feel better, my market was up only .37% today.
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anoop
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

ok so we have one for stocks soaring and one for bitcoin. can someone please start one for house prices?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

stocknoob4111 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:33 am At this rate S&P 500 will be 20,000 by end of year

I know we are in trouble when my friend scoffed at the market being up "only .77%", his words "thats not much"
my prediction was a modest 5400.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
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dogagility
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:05 am ok so we have one for stocks soaring and one for bitcoin. can someone please start one for house prices?
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=344042 :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
top
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:54 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
top
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But I have promises to keep,
And miles to go before I sleep,
And miles to go before I sleep.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

lostdog wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 7:54 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
top
Yep, cashing out now!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oldzey »

Keep buttering my bread, U.S. stocks! :beer
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MishkaWorries
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MishkaWorries »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:13 pm
drk wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:58 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:51 pm S&P rose by 22 points in the last trading hour of a no news Friday.

I’m fine with calling that a “melt up”.
It's different than I've seen the phrase used in the past (an accelerating rise that may be a precursor to a crash), but whatever floats your truck boat. :beer
Melt up is apparently now just a run of the mill, not even particularly high, up closing.

So we'll need a new term for a real melt up.
I'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.
We plan. G-d laughs.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

MishkaWorries wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 am
watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:13 pm
drk wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:58 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:51 pm S&P rose by 22 points in the last trading hour of a no news Friday.

I’m fine with calling that a “melt up”.
It's different than I've seen the phrase used in the past (an accelerating rise that may be a precursor to a crash), but whatever floats your truck boat. :beer
Melt up is apparently now just a run of the mill, not even particularly high, up closing.

So we'll need a new term for a real melt up.
I'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.
I rather like that term. “Blow-off top”.

Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air.

I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by minesweep »

anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
I recall back in late 1999 a coworker telling me that the bus driver was pumping Lucent stock.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

abuss368 wrote: Thu Apr 08, 2021 11:19 pm Backing up my truck tomorrow.

Tony
Is your transmission stuck in reverse? :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Stinky wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 am
MishkaWorries wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 am
watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:13 pm
drk wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:58 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:51 pm S&P rose by 22 points in the last trading hour of a no news Friday.

I’m fine with calling that a “melt up”.
It's different than I've seen the phrase used in the past (an accelerating rise that may be a precursor to a crash), but whatever floats your truck boat. :beer
Melt up is apparently now just a run of the mill, not even particularly high, up closing.

So we'll need a new term for a real melt up.
I'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.
I rather like that term. “Blow-off top”.

Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air.

I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close.
Same. This is a wild guess and not actionable.

We'll have a bull market for a few years at least. People are ready to spend, travel, eat out and splurge their cash.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Keenobserver »

anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
Time to sell my Tesla stock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

lostdog wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 am
MishkaWorries wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 am
watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:13 pm
drk wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:58 pm

It's different than I've seen the phrase used in the past (an accelerating rise that may be a precursor to a crash), but whatever floats your truck boat. :beer
Melt up is apparently now just a run of the mill, not even particularly high, up closing.

So we'll need a new term for a real melt up.
I'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.
I rather like that term. “Blow-off top”.

Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air.

I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close.
Same. This is a wild guess and not actionable.

We'll have a bull market for a few years at least. People are ready to spend, travel, eat out and splurge their cash.
Optimally we'll have multiple bubbles poping at different times as we ramp up the main street economy. Housing, NFTs, SPACs, etc while consumer goods and manufacturing start booming. Those of us indexing across sectors will have minimal impact.
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MishkaWorries
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MishkaWorries »

lostdog wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:44 am
Stinky wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 am
MishkaWorries wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:31 am
watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 8:13 pm
drk wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 7:58 pm

It's different than I've seen the phrase used in the past (an accelerating rise that may be a precursor to a crash), but whatever floats your truck boat. :beer
Melt up is apparently now just a run of the mill, not even particularly high, up closing.

So we'll need a new term for a real melt up.
I'm hearing the phrase "blow-off top" before the crash.
I rather like that term. “Blow-off top”.

Like an oil well spewing hundreds of feet in the air.

I don’t believe the stock market is there yet. Not even close.
Same. This is a wild guess and not actionable.

We'll have a bull market for a few years at least. People are ready to spend, travel, eat out and splurge their cash.
I'm not saying this is a blow-off top. I was referencing Watchnerd's request for a new term for a real melt up.
We plan. G-d laughs.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

minesweep wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
I recall back in late 1999 a coworker telling me that the bus driver was pumping Lucent stock.
My dental hygienist started talking to me about Qualcomm stock back then.
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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CyclingDuo »

Nicolas wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:23 am
minesweep wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
I recall back in late 1999 a coworker telling me that the bus driver was pumping Lucent stock.
My dental hygienist started talking to me about Qualcomm stock back then.
Some of us have never stopped talking about it in spite of our teeth and a little consolidation period. :mrgreen: Of course, reinvesting the dividends along the way helped...

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

CyclingDuo wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:32 am
Nicolas wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:23 am
minesweep wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 8:37 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
I recall back in late 1999 a coworker telling me that the bus driver was pumping Lucent stock.
My dental hygienist started talking to me about Qualcomm stock back then.
Some of us have never stopped talking about it in spite of our teeth and a little consolidation period. :mrgreen: Of course, reinvesting the dividends along the way helped...

Image
So if you bought at the earlier peak it took only fifteen years to recoup your losses, might be a bit less with the dividends. A little consolidation period?
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 10:22 am
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 9:05 am Happy the S&P broke through another threshold, but am sad that our Nasdaq and small-cap friends are left out of the party, and have to sit out in the cold with international stocks.
Good, we can still buy Nasdaq on the cheap, excellent.
Are you bullish on the Nasdaq if we get a soar of interest rates in response to a jump in inflation? See: "Market bull Jeremy Siegel warns the Nasdaq rebound will unravel, favors value stocks" link Siegel expects "a strong inflationary year. I think 4% to 5%,” link

I understand not everyone expects higher inflation. One of the talking heads on Bloomberg Real Yield went so far as to liken the wait for inflation to Waiting for Godot.

Worth noting that even the ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “You know, the U.S. is probably going to hit it’s inflation targets rather soon." link
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:11 am Are you bullish on the Nasdaq if we get a soar of interest rates in response to a jump in inflation? See: "Market bull Jeremy Siegel warns the Nasdaq rebound will unravel, favors value stocks" link Siegel expects "a strong inflationary year. I think 4% to 5%,” link

I understand not everyone expects higher inflation. One of the talking heads on Bloomberg Real Yield went so far as to liken the wait for inflation to Waiting for Godot.

Worth noting that even the ECB President Christine Lagarde said, “You know, the U.S. is probably going to hit it’s inflation targets rather soon." link
I'm actually neither bullish nor bearish. My game is to simply load up on the cheaper asset, whichever it is (SPX or NASDAQ).
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CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CyclingDuo »

Nicolas wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:40 amSo if you bought at the earlier peak it took only fifteen years to recoup your losses, might be a bit less with the dividends. A little consolidation period?
Perhaps you missed my use of this particular smilie after I said little consolidation period ( :mrgreen: )? :wink: That last one was a wink, by the way...

We did not buy at the peak according to our brokerage account records, but have been long term holders of Qualcomm as there was an awful lot of chatter about CDMA, the patents and licensing of the technology over on the message forums over at The Motley Fool and Silicon Investor in 1997, 1998, and 1999. Every earnings report and earnings call was dissected bit by bit each quarter. Discussion and excitement got pretty hot and heavy throughout the latter part of 1998 - especially after the July earnings release with the amazing growth and then that built up heading into 1999, so I remember what you were talking about regarding Qualcomm and the dental hygienist. There were message board posters that were actually 100% in Qualcomm or JDSU or a combo of the two who were posting on the forums and announcing they were retiring early and going off into the sunset with their non-diverse portfolios. :shock:

I, too, was shaking my head in disbelief how the stock took off and all of the stock splits and behavioral mistakes that were taking place from investors, myself included on some other stocks. Our kids, my parents, my wife's parents all had shares of Qualcomm (we even inherited the QCOM shares from our parents with the step up in cost basis about 5 years ago). Qualcomm was just one holding of a rather diverse portfolio. However, for my discipline when investing in technology stocks, the CDMA technology (and patents) vs. the GSM technology for the longer haul captivated me enough to just let it ride all of these years. In terms of the technology adoption life cycle and implications for Qualcomm's CDMA technology from those days in 1997/98/99 - I had no choice but to hold to see if CDMA would ever be as widely adopted as the potential indicated. It sure did take a long time for investors to finally start seeing the fruits of it all, but technology investing is not for everyone as it is a ruthless game and the better technology does not always win out.

No worries, we keep a large chunk of our investments in the index funds.

CyclingDuo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

CyclingDuo wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 10:50 am
Nicolas wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:40 amSo if you bought at the earlier peak it took only fifteen years to recoup your losses, might be a bit less with the dividends. A little consolidation period?
Perhaps you missed my use of this particular smilie after I said little consolidation period ( :mrgreen: )? :wink: That last one was a wink, by the way...

We did not buy at the peak according to our brokerage account records, but have been long term holders of Qualcomm as there was an awful lot of chatter about CDMA, the patents and licensing of the technology over on the message forums over at The Motley Fool and Silicon Investor in 1997, 1998, and 1999. Every earnings report and earnings call was dissected bit by bit each quarter. Discussion and excitement got pretty hot and heavy throughout the latter part of 1998 - especially after the July earnings release with the amazing growth and then that built up heading into 1999, so I remember what you were talking about regarding Qualcomm and the dental hygienist. There were message board posters that were actually 100% in Qualcomm or JDSU or a combo of the two who were posting on the forums and announcing they were retiring early and going off into the sunset with their non-diverse portfolios. :shock:

I, too, was shaking my head in disbelief how the stock took off and all of the stock splits and behavioral mistakes that were taking place from investors, myself included on some other stocks. Our kids, my parents, my wife's parents all had shares of Qualcomm (we even inherited the QCOM shares from our parents with the step up in cost basis about 5 years ago). Qualcomm was just one holding of a rather diverse portfolio. However, for my discipline when investing in technology stocks, the CDMA technology (and patents) vs. the GSM technology for the longer haul captivated me enough to just let it ride all of these years. In terms of the technology adoption life cycle and implications for Qualcomm's CDMA technology from those days in 1997/98/99 - I had no choice but to hold to see if CDMA would ever be as widely adopted as the potential indicated. It sure did take a long time for investors to finally start seeing the fruits of it all, but technology investing is not for everyone as it is a ruthless game and the better technology does not always win out.

No worries, we keep a large chunk of our investments in the index funds.

CyclingDuo
Sorry, I missed the smilies. I didn’t invest in QCOM or any other individual issues back then, except for my employer’s stock in my 401(k) in which I was in 100% (now sold and in the S&P 500). But I came late to the game in the Firsthand Funds and Janus Funds in which I incurred heavy losses in the ensuing months. Marry in haste, repent at leisure, as the saying goes, and so true in my case. I learned my lesson, as many have. Except for AAPL in my taxable, which I’m loathe to sell due to capital gains taxation, I’m in all index funds now.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Keenobserver wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:11 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
Time to sell my Tesla stock
What if it goes higher?

Tony
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Silly Wabbit »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:39 am
Keenobserver wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:11 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
Time to sell my Tesla stock
What if it goes higher?

Tony
If it goes higher, buy it back and grab the winner! 🏆
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Silly Wabbit wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:52 am
abuss368 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:39 am
Keenobserver wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:11 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
Time to sell my Tesla stock
What if it goes higher?

Tony
If it goes higher, buy it back and grab the winner! 🏆
Marketing timing and security selection has been proven time and again to not be a successful strategy.

Instead of searching for the needle for the haystack, buy the haystack.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

After that up close of the NASDAQ on Fri, how did ARKK end up being behind NASDAQ?

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Alchemist »

I was thinking this market was a bit....euphoric feeling. So I went to check P/E ratios based on forward looking earnings estimates. Turns out they have fallen from 33 a year ago to a mere 21 today.

That's right, at a P/E of 21 based on forward earnings estimates the S&P 500 actually might still look *cheap* in the context of 1.7% ten year treasuries and even reasonably priced if interest rates go up :shock:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_p ... d_estimate
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Alchemist wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:11 am ...the S&P 500 actually might still look *cheap* in the context of 1.7% ten year treasuries...
Shiller has his own take on that.

"Examined on their own, stock valuations are at giddy levels, yet they are far more attractive when viewed side by side with bonds. That’s why it is so hard to determine whether the stock market is dangerously high or a relative bargain." -- from "Making Sense of Elevated Stock Market Prices -- Shares are very expensive, but so are bonds. Even at current prices, the economist Robert J. Shiller says, it is reasonable to keep some wealth in stocks" link

It's noteworthy Shiller begins his concluding paragraph with "The markets may well be dangerously high right now..." and in the article warns against being overexposed to equity risk.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Crushtheturtle »

abuss368 wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:39 am
Keenobserver wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 9:11 am
anoop wrote: Sat Apr 10, 2021 1:08 am overheard produce guys at the grocery store talking tesla stock price.
Time to sell my Tesla stock
What if it goes higher?

Tony
If it goes higher, we back up the truck. That's how it works, right?
:wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Alchemist wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 7:11 am I was thinking this market was a bit....euphoric feeling. So I went to check P/E ratios based on forward looking earnings estimates. Turns out they have fallen from 33 a year ago to a mere 21 today.

That's right, at a P/E of 21 based on forward earnings estimates the S&P 500 actually might still look *cheap* in the context of 1.7% ten year treasuries and even reasonably priced if interest rates go up :shock:

https://ycharts.com/indicators/sp_500_p ... d_estimate
I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
The short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

CurlyDave wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:47 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
The short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.
Yes, this is true.

Sometimes when a company announces earnings, the financial press will compare earnings, or revenue, or something else, to “consensus estimates”. That “consensus” view is developed by looking at the earnings forecasts of all the analysts that follow a certain stock.

I expect that individual company “consensus” views can be rolled up into an expectation for the stock market as a whole.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

CurlyDave wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:47 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
The short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.
Stinky wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:08 pm Yes, this is true.

Sometimes when a company announces earnings, the financial press will compare earnings, or revenue, or something else, to “consensus estimates”. That “consensus” view is developed by looking at the earnings forecasts of all the analysts that follow a certain stock.

I expect that individual company “consensus” views can be rolled up into an expectation for the stock market as a whole.
Thanks! So it likely then that the estimates are based on the consensus analysis of the largest companies that currently dominate an index?
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:48 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:47 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
The short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.
Stinky wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:08 pm Yes, this is true.

Sometimes when a company announces earnings, the financial press will compare earnings, or revenue, or something else, to “consensus estimates”. That “consensus” view is developed by looking at the earnings forecasts of all the analysts that follow a certain stock.

I expect that individual company “consensus” views can be rolled up into an expectation for the stock market as a whole.
Thanks! So it likely then that the estimates are based on the consensus analysis of the largest companies that currently dominate an index?
I think it more than just the largest companies. For instance, when I look up the #300 company in the S&P 500 (TTWO) there are 18 analysts who have reported on the company in the last 3 months. The #502 company (FLS) (There are actually 505 stocks in the S&P 500) has had 6 analyst reports in the last 3 months. Just for comparison, the #1 company (AAPL) is followed by 25 analysts and the #3 company (AMZN) is followed by 32 analysts.

IMHO even 6 analysts is enough to get a reasonable consensus earnings estimate, so for S&P earnings estimates, it is not just the largest companies, it is all of the companies.

Admittedly a limited sample, but I think enough to give us an idea.

On edit: The #2 company (MSFT) has only 23 analysts following it.

A very curious result: why does AMZN get more love than AAPL, which gets more than MSFT?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

CurlyDave wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 9:40 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 8:48 pm
CurlyDave wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 2:47 pm
Beensabu wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 12:16 pm
...I still don't understand how they come up with expected future earnings for S&P 500 or total market... Is someone conducting an analysis for every company, compiling data from hundreds (or thousands) of companies according to market cap, then taking the average to use in their forward P/E estimate? I don't get it. At all.
The short answer is yes, many analysts follow larger companies. The scrutiny is less thorough for smaller companies, but it is still done. There are enough companies in the world that overestimates average out with underestimates and the estimates for the S&P 500 or TSM are pretty good.
Stinky wrote: Sun Apr 11, 2021 3:08 pm Yes, this is true.

Sometimes when a company announces earnings, the financial press will compare earnings, or revenue, or something else, to “consensus estimates”. That “consensus” view is developed by looking at the earnings forecasts of all the analysts that follow a certain stock.

I expect that individual company “consensus” views can be rolled up into an expectation for the stock market as a whole.
Thanks! So it likely then that the estimates are based on the consensus analysis of the largest companies that currently dominate an index?
I think it more than just the largest companies. For instance, when I look up the #300 company in the S&P 500 (TTWO) there are 18 analysts who have reported on the company in the last 3 months. The #502 company (FLS) (There are actually 505 stocks in the S&P 500) has had 6 analyst reports in the last 3 months. Just for comparison, the #1 company (AAPL) is followed by 25 analysts and the #3 company (AMZN) is followed by 32 analysts.

IMHO even 6 analysts is enough to get a reasonable consensus earnings estimate, so for S&P earnings estimates, it is not just the largest companies, it is all of the companies.

Admittedly a limited sample, but I think enough to give us an idea.

On edit: The #2 company (MSFT) has only 23 analysts following it.

A very curious result: why does AMZN get more love than AAPL, which gets more than MSFT?
That's very interesting - thanks for answering my questions! :)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;

A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Forester wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:26 am Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;

A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
As to your "forecast" - Sure, it's not unthinkable that there will be a drawdown that will cut equity values in half. It's happened before, and it will happen again. But, what "problems will be uncovered in the fall"? Just curious what you have in mind?

As to your choice of words - The first definition of "forecast" on Dictionary.com is "to predict (a future condition or occurrence)". Sounds to me like using the word "forecast" instead of "prediction" is a distinction without a difference.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

Now that the resident groundhog has surfaced, we're back in the saddle! :beer

Lighten your wallet, folks, 'cause there's money to be made in this market. :D :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Stinky wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:15 am
Forester wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:26 am Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;

A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
As to your "forecast" - Sure, it's not unthinkable that there will be a drawdown that will cut equity values in half. It's happened before, and it will happen again. But, what "problems will be uncovered in the fall"? Just curious what you have in mind?

As to your choice of words - The first definition of "forecast" on Dictionary.com is "to predict (a future condition or occurrence)". Sounds to me like using the word "forecast" instead of "prediction" is a distinction without a difference.
He's yankin your chain, man.

You took the bait.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CNBC has another Suze Orman warning up, and it makes a nice pairing with her warning from a year ago.

From April 7, 2021
Suze Orman: The market ‘reminds me of 2000,’ and you need to be ready for a correction. Here’s how you should prepare link

From May 20, 2020
Suze Orman says she made a ‘serious sum’ buying the coronavirus crash — now she’s warning of another drop link

Oh, have to add this as a bonus. Jim Cramer. Bad call! link
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:33 am CNBC has another Suze Orman warning up, and it makes a nice pairing with her warning from a year ago.

From April 7, 2021
Suze Orman: The market ‘reminds me of 2000,’ and you need to be ready for a correction. Here’s how you should prepare link

From May 20, 2020
Suze Orman says she made a ‘serious sum’ buying the coronavirus crash — now she’s warning of another drop link

Oh, have to add this as a bonus. Jim Cramer. Bad call! link
One of these days she’ll be right and will be hailed as a prophet. That’s what happened to Elaine Garzarelli after her one right call before the crash of ‘87. She rode that one for years. Remember the crash of ‘96 that she predicted? I don’t either, it came four years late.
Last edited by Nicolas on Mon Apr 12, 2021 12:08 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Nicolas wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:54 am
Robot Monster wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:33 am CNBC has another Suze Orman warning up, and it makes a nice pairing with her warning from a year ago.

From April 7, 2021
Suze Orman: The market ‘reminds me of 2000,’ and you need to be ready for a correction. Here’s how you should prepare link

From May 20, 2020
Suze Orman says she made a ‘serious sum’ buying the coronavirus crash — now she’s warning of another drop link

Oh, have to add this as a bonus. Jim Cramer. Bad call! link
One of these days she’ll be right and will be hailed as a prophet. That’s what happened to Elaine Garzarelli after her one right call before the crash of ‘87. She rode that one for years.
I didn't get the impression that Suze was 'making a call'.

She said you need to be prepared and have an EF.

Is that controversial?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 9:55 am I didn't get the impression that Suze was 'making a call'.

She said you need to be prepared and have an EF.

Is that controversial?
While I agree there might be nothing controversial about her advice, still, she is crystal balling a bit when she says, "another crash seems imminent". And there is the possibility she will scare people by saying that.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Forester wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:26 am Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;

A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
I predict a medium-term forecast of 82% drop to Forester's portfolio.

Now everyone's happy.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

S&P 500 currently in the green. +0.03%
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:02 am
Stinky wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:15 am
Forester wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:26 am Not a prediction, a medium-term forecast;

A return to the 2020 low - how can this be unthinkable? - would be a drawdown of 46%. Retail investors are the most committed since 2000. The maximum number of people will be sucked in, then problems will be uncovered in the Fall accompanied with an almighty bust. The assets to own will be short-term US bonds, quality USD corporate bonds, and gold.
As to your "forecast" - Sure, it's not unthinkable that there will be a drawdown that will cut equity values in half. It's happened before, and it will happen again. But, what "problems will be uncovered in the fall"? Just curious what you have in mind?

As to your choice of words - The first definition of "forecast" on Dictionary.com is "to predict (a future condition or occurrence)". Sounds to me like using the word "forecast" instead of "prediction" is a distinction without a difference.
He's yankin your chain, man.

You took the bait.
He's just a troll at this point. Don't feed them.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:45 am S&P 500 currently in the green. +0.03%
And back to green.
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