Just remind me when to sell before all this calamity you see in your crystal ball transpires.
U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The crystal ball is currently saying to sell in just over two months.
That’s plenty of time for the “forecast” to change multiple more times.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm more nervous because of Forester's apparent short-term positive forecast.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Me too. The opposite happens with every one of his forecasts. We're in trouble.Cheez-It Guy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:24 am I'm more nervous because of Forester's apparent short-term positive forecast.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is the truth. Good news is 2022 and beyond could be incredible!lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:49 amMe too. The opposite happens with every one of his forecasts. We're in trouble.Cheez-It Guy wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 7:24 am I'm more nervous because of Forester's apparent short-term positive forecast.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Futures looking very green with 30 minutes to go.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
For once no taper down today?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm starting to think there's just too much money sitting on the sidelines waiting for a dip. It appears the market has no plans for a proper correction without something to instill a little fear. Maybe the t word will do the trick?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
i agree
a potential China debacle is looming also. we shall see.
the flip side is IMO there are some crazy disruptions to the supply chain across numerous industries. if that ever gets worked out -- we could see some massive $$$ buying of pent up demand
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Last edited by mr_brightside on Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Isnt it much simpler and energy effiecient to just stay invested and keep contributing as per invesment statement? No need to worry about the nuisances. I would have been out of the market long ago if I listened to the " experts." If market does well then there is a " bubble" be ready for a crash. If market is going down, OmG we are headed for a crash. How about accepting anything can happen, and no one knows what/ when. So a correction might be due, but when and how much? If one doesnt know exactly than its just wasted words. I stongly believe that most companies in sp 500 will be worth more years down the road then they are today. That is my investment premise and it doesnt chnage regardless of what might be happening on a given day.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We speak the same language, but most people out there don't understand it. The idea of having 50%~95% of your money invested in TSM is foreign to them.Keenobserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:43 amIsnt it much simpler and energy effiecient to just stay invested and keep contributing as per invesment statement? No need to worry about the nuisances. I would have been out of the market long ago if I listened to the " experts." If market does well then there is a " bubble" be ready for a crash. If market is going down, OmG we are headed for a crash. How about accepting anything can happen, and no one knows what/ when. So a correction might be due, but when and how much? If one doesnt know exactly than its just wasted words. I stongly believe that most companies in sp 500 will be worth more years down the road then they are today. That is my investment premise and it doesnt chnage regardless of what might be happening on a given day.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm 100% invested with no intentions of selling. Given all the news chatter and expectations of a correction from the experts, I'm merely sharing my observations.Keenobserver wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 9:43 amIsnt it much simpler and energy effiecient to just stay invested and keep contributing as per invesment statement? No need to worry about the nuisances. I would have been out of the market long ago if I listened to the " experts." If market does well then there is a " bubble" be ready for a crash. If market is going down, OmG we are headed for a crash. How about accepting anything can happen, and no one knows what/ when. So a correction might be due, but when and how much? If one doesnt know exactly than its just wasted words. I stongly believe that most companies in sp 500 will be worth more years down the road then they are today. That is my investment premise and it doesnt chnage regardless of what might be happening on a given day.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is why I use trailing stop orders. If there is a correction I know I will get ~85% of the highest price since I placed the order.Stinky wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:59 amThe crystal ball is currently saying to sell in just over two months.
That’s plenty of time for the “forecast” to change multiple more times.
Of course what to do after the order activates requires wisdom and insight. Probably more of both than I have.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
As a public service to the uninitiated, I repeat:
There are many, many other examples, but I'm lazy.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm Brought to you by...
"Memory - better than guessing"
How many times can one person be wrong?
Caveat lector.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I sometimes wonder if Forester is a really clever AI, designed to make confident financial predictions at random. I've only been on the boards a half a year or so, but I like to imagine that his early predictions read like some of those AI-designed recipes: Beothurtreed Tuna Pie, Good Wine Drained Chili and such. Over time he's come to sound much more realistic!vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:23 amAs a public service to the uninitiated, I repeat:
There are many, many other examples, but I'm lazy.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:39 pm Brought to you by...
"Memory - better than guessing"
How many times can one person be wrong?
Caveat lector.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Kinda surprised to see the soaring return so quickly. I wonder when we're going to get an extended streak of red?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We've had what 2-3 weeks in the red and this is one day. Movements in one direction or another are not usually in a straight line, there are a lot of head fakes along the way. But since we're heading to 4800 in the next couple of months I'm none too worried for now.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I don't understand this market. Freaking out -1.7% on Evergrande then buying 1.2% right before the FOMC seems crazy to me.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes, trailing stops are good in theory but can be difficult in practice. I haven't used one since probably ~2000 but I remember they had a nasty habit of barely triggering and then the stock shooting straight back up.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:03 amThis is why I use trailing stop orders. If there is a correction I know I will get ~85% of the highest price since I placed the order.Stinky wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:59 amThe crystal ball is currently saying to sell in just over two months.
That’s plenty of time for the “forecast” to change multiple more times.
Of course what to do after the order activates requires wisdom and insight. Probably more of both than I have.
The fool, with all his other faults, has this also - he is always getting ready to live. - Seneca Epistles < c. 65AD
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I use stop loss order for my individual bet stocks to lock in gains..that just small % of my investment and helps sctrach the itch. I leave my indexed stuff alone. Stop loss actually worked well for me in FEb..locked in gains for riskier stocks and some still are far below what I sold at.CurlyDave wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 10:03 amThis is why I use trailing stop orders. If there is a correction I know I will get ~85% of the highest price since I placed the order.Stinky wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 6:59 amThe crystal ball is currently saying to sell in just over two months.
That’s plenty of time for the “forecast” to change multiple more times.
Of course what to do after the order activates requires wisdom and insight. Probably more of both than I have.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's almost like it's hard to know which direction the drunkard will step next on his random walk?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:07 am I don't understand this market. Freaking out -1.7% on Evergrande then buying 1.2% right before the FOMC seems crazy to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah, this is why we're Bogleheads though. Markets don't have to make sense, they just need to go up long-term.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:22 am It's almost like it's hard to know which direction the drunkard will step next on his random walk?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yep. We're up 12% over six months and about 33% since pre-pandemic highs. If you would have clubbed me in the head and put me in a coma in February 2020 and woke me up now, explained what happened with the pandemic and told me the markets are up 33%, I'd be very pleasantly surprised.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:26 amYeah, this is why we're Bogleheads though. Markets don't have to make sense, they just need to go up long-term.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 22, 2021 11:22 am It's almost like it's hard to know which direction the drunkard will step next on his random walk?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Short term: voting machine, long term: weighing machine
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
slow taper in progress?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looks like it and it is your fault. We haven't heard of any gym visits lately.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The Oracle of the Fed speaks today at 2:30 p.m. EST.
It could be interesting.
It could be interesting.
"..the cavalry ain't comin' kid, you're on your own..."
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
FT: 3 interest rate raises in 2023 as part of tapering. So we can still party like 1999 for 1 more year
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Giant jump the last 5 minutes. Strange.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Maybe not. Perhaps the text of Powell's upcoming speech were released? I don't know.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The Fed.
Cheers
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The announcement from Fed is expecting 6-7 hikes from 2023 - 2024, showing optimism on economic recovery but won't taper right of way. I'm guessing traders like that they have some runway before tapering really starts. Also, Forrester already dictated that we'll hit another ATH before the big drop so market is just following his prediction.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yep, fed. Rates remaining near or at 0
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I was on the elliptical during market close. I couldn't stop the taper.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So the Q4 crash is still on? Will you be selling in November?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So fed want to start tapering this November...
Interest rate increases next year
Stocks no go soaring anymore?
Interest rate increases next year
Stocks no go soaring anymore?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
He'll be selling once it hits 4800.. Pay attention!
(He's really bad at this BECAUSE he keeps putting numbers into his predictions... He may indeed be an AI experiment, because a human being would have learned much faster than this to just make general predictions without specifics)
Last edited by HomerJ on Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:53 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It would be foolish to sell, between the vagaries of precise timing and cash losing to inflation, one should maintain a balanced portfolio and take their lumps on the chin.
I personally guarantee that the top will be in, Q3 to Q4 this year.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Rumors CCP nationalization of Evergrande is basically a done deal. I guess the financial crisis will be averted although some shops will feel some pain. I predict ATH in the near future!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Futures very green so far. CNBC analyst says we have a good head n shoulders pattern….so obviously this means ATH soon.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Still looking green and good less then an hour before the open.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Crossing fingers there is no slow and steady taper down again. This seems like the pattern lately.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
2.6% above Monday's low
2.6% below all time high earlier this month
2.6% below all time high earlier this month
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Fire up the “Can I Retire Now?” threads.
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