Russell 2000 is magnificently soaring +1.84%, as is Disney +2.15%, while Amazon is -1.3% and Zoom -2.12%. Seems like the reopening trades are being rewarded, the stay-at-home stocks punished.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:09 am
Russell 2000 is magnificently soaring +1.84%,
I rebalanced from my Russell 2000 position to S&P 500 2 days ago. Talk about getting my rear handed to me
I plan to hold the new S&P 500 holdings for 20+ years though so we'll see where I wind up in the long run but at least at the moment I have already lost several thousands just by being 2 days off.
But something tells me that Tech is trash (just like Cash is Trash), and it's a Tech bubble just like 2000, Small Caps will do well, Tech will fail.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:09 am
Russell 2000 is magnificently soaring +1.84%,
I rebalanced from my Russell 2000 position to S&P 500 2 days ago Talk about getting my rear handed to me
I plan to hold the new S&P 500 holdings for 20+ years though so we'll see where I wind up in the long run.
I grapple with the tug-a-war between the short-term mindset and the more meaningful, but less palpable long-term one. I bought some Amazon yesterday, and am bummed it's -1.64% at the moment, even though I often preach the only price I should care about at this point is the price I sell, but have difficulty convincing even myself this.
So, is anyone worried about the S&P oscillator (which Jim Cramer swears by) showing the market is overbought? Did I mention Jim Cramer swears by it? This means we need to take it seriously. Cramer said, "We’ve had an incredible run, and I’d feel much, much more comfortable if we follow that up with a gentle decline rather than some sort of cliff jump. The longer the market stays overbought, the more worried I get.” Jim Cramer is worried, guys. This is pretty actionable.
Yes, I'm being ironic. Yet, at the same time, with so many people saying bubble and overbought it does, yes, does succeed to put the scare in me.
Perhaps how this is actionable: I need to turn off the noise.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:39 am
Especially emerging markets +0.92%, which I encouraged people to invest in just yesterday.
I couldn't have timed this any worse. Moved 3 positions, Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Emerging Markets from my old 401k to my new 401k which has only a single S&P 500 position. In the process sold both Russell 2000 and and EM at the lows on April 12, but both around $40k worth so some real money lost here.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:39 am
Especially emerging markets +0.92%, which I encouraged people to invest in just yesterday.
I couldn't have timed this any worse. Moved 3 positions, Russell 2000, S&P 500 and Emerging Markets from my old 401k to my new 401k which has only a single S&P 500 position. In the process sold both Russell 2000 and and EM at the lows on April 12, but both around $40k worth so some real money lost here.
It's only a day so we'll see...
Wouldn't feel bad about that. What you did is a good strategy, but as they say, you can have a good strategy and a bad outcome.
H-Town wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:16 am
Increase your saving rate. Isn't it obvious?
A little playing around with Monte Carlo simulations suggests that, if these numbers are to be believed, Gen Z should plan on roughly doubling the savings rates of Baby Boomers to get similar expected results (e.g., save 30%-50% of gross instead of 15%-25%). Lucky ducks.
Global Market Portfolio + modest tilt towards volatility (80/20->60/40 as approach FI) + modest tilt away from exchange rate risk (80% global+20% U.S. stocks; currency-hedge bonds) + tax optimization
H-Town wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:16 am
Increase your saving rate. Isn't it obvious?
A little playing around with Monte Carlo simulations suggests that, if these numbers are to be believed, Gen Z should plan on roughly doubling the savings rates of Baby Boomers to get similar expected results (e.g., save 30%-50% of gross instead of 15%-25%). Lucky ducks.
The numbers aren't to be believed, so we reject the base case.
-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
lostdog wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:31 am
International looking good today too.
Especially emerging markets +0.92%, which I encouraged people to invest in just yesterday. link
PS I did, myself, back the truck up on EM yesterday, as it happens.
IJR is up +1.91%. IWM is up +1.95%.
Yep. BlackRock sees "U.S. small caps geared to an expected cyclical upswing in 2021." link Hop on board, everyone! May I recommend a 3% allocation based on Gretchen Tai's model portfolio. link
H-Town wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:16 am
Increase your saving rate. Isn't it obvious?
A little playing around with Monte Carlo simulations suggests that, if these numbers are to be believed, Gen Z should plan on roughly doubling the savings rates of Baby Boomers to get similar expected results (e.g., save 30%-50% of gross instead of 15%-25%). Lucky ducks.
The numbers aren't to be believed, so we reject the base case.
-TheDDC
Agreed. When we're in charge our Fed will print and pump stocks as well. The buck will be passed to the next generation.
All posts are my own opinions and are not financial advice.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:50 am
So, is anyone worried about the S&P oscillator (which Jim Cramer swears by) showing the market is overbought? Did I mention Jim Cramer swears by it? This means we need to take it seriously. Cramer said, "We’ve had an incredible run, and I’d feel much, much more comfortable if we follow that up with a gentle decline rather than some sort of cliff jump. The longer the market stays overbought, the more worried I get.” Jim Cramer is worried, guys. This is pretty actionable.
The what?
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:50 am
So, is anyone worried about the S&P oscillator (which Jim Cramer swears by) showing the market is overbought? Did I mention Jim Cramer swears by it? This means we need to take it seriously. Cramer said, "We’ve had an incredible run, and I’d feel much, much more comfortable if we follow that up with a gentle decline rather than some sort of cliff jump. The longer the market stays overbought, the more worried I get.” Jim Cramer is worried, guys. This is pretty actionable.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:50 am
So, is anyone worried about the S&P oscillator (which Jim Cramer swears by) showing the market is overbought? Did I mention Jim Cramer swears by it? This means we need to take it seriously. Cramer said, "We’ve had an incredible run, and I’d feel much, much more comfortable if we follow that up with a gentle decline rather than some sort of cliff jump. The longer the market stays overbought, the more worried I get.” Jim Cramer is worried, guys. This is pretty actionable.
The what?
The thing he creates for his private investment club to think their money is being well spent on his tremendous entertaining intellect.
It's best to be ignored. He knows about as much as anyone else on this forum with regard to future S&P performance doing anything else than what it's done on average in the past (10+%).
-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:37 amYep. BlackRock sees "U.S. small caps geared to an expected cyclical upswing in 2021."
Has Blackrock ever made a prediction that turned out to be wrong?
Or did you even check that?
I get the funny feeling you don't place much merit on not just BlackRock's predictions, but predictions in general. Probably they all have a very spotty track record, and perhaps they should all be ignored. That certainly is a valid point of view, and perhaps people should not make any big investments based on any predictions. That said:
-- you can listen to predictions for your funny money
-- that's about it
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:37 amYep. BlackRock sees "U.S. small caps geared to an expected cyclical upswing in 2021."
Has Blackrock ever made a prediction that turned out to be wrong?
Or did you even check that?
I have no evidence or data to back this up, but it sure feels to me like the vast majority of forecasts I've read have actually turned out to be wrong, or if something that can't be measured as right or wrong, have been very far off.
It's almost like forecasts are negatively correlated with actual future returns.
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:50 am
So, is anyone worried about the S&P oscillator (which Jim Cramer swears by) showing the market is overbought? Did I mention Jim Cramer swears by it? This means we need to take it seriously. Cramer said, "We’ve had an incredible run, and I’d feel much, much more comfortable if we follow that up with a gentle decline rather than some sort of cliff jump. The longer the market stays overbought, the more worried I get.” Jim Cramer is worried, guys. This is pretty actionable.
The what?
The thing he creates for his private investment club to think their money is being well spent on his tremendous entertaining intellect.
Oh I never watch him so have no idea what he shows.
The only time I ever see him is when I'm in airport and hotel bars.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
rchmx1 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:08 pm
It appears that someone is not working out hard enough at the gym today!
small cap is doing well, so not all bad. But yeah, lostdog need to sweat a bit more in the gym today.
Heading out in a bit.
Good, make sure to work up a sweat before 16:00. We need that sweat to seep into the crevices of the exchange floor, to offer sufficient sacrifice to the equity gods.
rchmx1 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:08 pm
It appears that someone is not working out hard enough at the gym today!
was there an announcement or some news that made the SP500 drop 0.5% in a few minutes?
Bernie Madoff passed away?
That was known earlier this morning already. The dropoff happened between 1:50 and 2:09 PM. Just seemed like some news must have dropped for this sharp turn-around. Maybe the Fed said something that was concerning today, such as a slight rise in inflation:
12:00 p.m.
Discussion -- Chair Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live
Economic Club of Washington Interview
At the Economic Club of Washington (via livestream) 1:00 p.m.
CP - Commercial Paper 2:00 p.m.
Beige Book
rchmx1 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:08 pm
It appears that someone is not working out hard enough at the gym today!
was there an announcement or some news that made the SP500 drop 0.5% in a few minutes?
Bernie Madoff passed away?
That was known earlier this morning already. The dropoff happened between 1:50 and 2:09 PM. Just seemed like some news must have dropped for this sharp turn-around. Maybe the Fed said something that was concerning today, such as a slight rise in inflation:
12:00 p.m.
Discussion -- Chair Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live
Economic Club of Washington Interview
At the Economic Club of Washington (via livestream) 1:00 p.m.
CP - Commercial Paper 2:00 p.m.
Beige Book
Bogleheads is Serious Biznizz.
I can't believe you guys bothered to fact check something that I assumed would be taken as facetious...
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
rchmx1 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:08 pm
It appears that someone is not working out hard enough at the gym today!
was there an announcement or some news that made the SP500 drop 0.5% in a few minutes?
Bernie Madoff passed away?
That was known earlier this morning already. The dropoff happened between 1:50 and 2:09 PM. Just seemed like some news must have dropped for this sharp turn-around. Maybe the Fed said something that was concerning today, such as a slight rise in inflation:
12:00 p.m.
Discussion -- Chair Jerome H. Powell
Watch Live
Economic Club of Washington Interview
At the Economic Club of Washington (via livestream) 1:00 p.m.
CP - Commercial Paper 2:00 p.m.
Beige Book
And what time did Biden speak?
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham