U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Hopefully this is just the beginning of our journey to the moon
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I hate to the moon. It makes me think of irrational exuberance. That means bubbles popping. I would rather keep climbing that wall of worry. With slow increases followed by quick drops to keep the worry alive. Last 2 weeks were perfect.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Always nice to see Mr Market in such a good mood.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes recent taper down was welcomed because of all the bubble talk. Market being ratiinal and catious is good.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
because there was way too much pessimism. The virus situation is now petering out, there is no news of any variants and people may be realizing that we are moving out of the bad times and not into them. Just my $0.02.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
get it thru the 50 day. rah rah
Don’t let anyone else ruin your portfolio. It’s your portfolio. Ruin it yourself!!!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Out of the basement. Elevator, top floor please.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Didn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think he's just being snarky. And I like it!sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pmDidn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Forester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pmDidn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I thought that was who I saw it from. I was busy on Monday and missed that one. Are you sure you aren't a bot, though?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pmForester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pmDidn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
He's a really good one. And they haven't told him yet. So, shhhhsailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:04 pmI thought that was who I saw it from. I was busy on Monday and missed that one. Are you sure you aren't a bot, though?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pmForester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pmDidn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I appreciate this.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pmForester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pmDidn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We don't need more dumb posts.... oh wait... never mind... Forgot what thread I was in.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I also don't like paying much higher prices with inflation blasting higherMarseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:54 pmI am not sure if there are technical reasons why they can't. I would certainly love to see tapering and hiking at the same time, but the markets probably won't like that.nzahir wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:49 pmWhy can't they start the taper this Nov or Dec (should end around half way in 2022) and do rate hikes in early 2022?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:10 pm Tapering coming this year: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ma ... 002296.cms
They kind of have to, since they can't hike before they're done tapering.
And that doesn't even take into fact that housing in unaffordable now in places like LA, NY, and other big cities
It is crazy how the market is really just built on incredibly relaxed monetary policy
Fed needs to bring rates up to normal levels to reverse the damage they have done to fixed income and to people who don't just own a lot of assets
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
i have only looked at the financial markets twice since oct 3. last friday at the close and just now. seems like stocks is going up both times i looked. what happened to the whole China evergrande and global supply chain shipping delays collapsing the markets???
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Banks made money.bugleheadd wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:35 pm i have only looked at the financial markets twice since oct 3. last friday at the close and just now. seems like stocks is going up both times i looked. what happened to the whole China evergrande and global supply chain shipping delays collapsing the markets???
Shocking! I know.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We absolutely do!
...And I'm back to ATH (that includes contributions and a couple of car loan payments, but I don't care). Hopefully this means we're back to our regularly programmed soaring? Or at least on our way?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
All GREEN again today... every single fund/account I own.
Checking account, savings account, short-term bonds, mid-term bonds, TIPS, US equities, international equities, REITs — everything!
Is that good or bad?
Checking account, savings account, short-term bonds, mid-term bonds, TIPS, US equities, international equities, REITs — everything!
Is that good or bad?
"Discipline matters more than allocation.” |—| "In finance, if you’re certain of anything, you’re out of your mind." ─William Bernstein
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's funny that banks doing well wasn't already priced in. It sure isn't a surprise.
Evergrande (anyone else want to say everclear?) is going to be a long rolling crisis, and it's not clear how substantial it will be in the end. Right now I'm thinking it will be like the S&L crisis decades ago - big but really just a speed bump. We'll see. As for logistics supply chains, that's not going away as an issue, but the supply chains are adapting somewhat to avoid the truly disastrous breakdown scenarios. Again, we'll see.
I'm rooting for the markets to double over the next 5 years. We'll see.
Evergrande (anyone else want to say everclear?) is going to be a long rolling crisis, and it's not clear how substantial it will be in the end. Right now I'm thinking it will be like the S&L crisis decades ago - big but really just a speed bump. We'll see. As for logistics supply chains, that's not going away as an issue, but the supply chains are adapting somewhat to avoid the truly disastrous breakdown scenarios. Again, we'll see.
I'm rooting for the markets to double over the next 5 years. We'll see.
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Does not compute.sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:04 pmI thought that was who I saw it from. I was busy on Monday and missed that one. Are you sure you aren't a bot, though?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pmForester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pmDidn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
One might even say we've broken out of the downward trend and are heading back to 4500+. Or not. But maybe. And like, we could even stay there for a whole week when we get there. Or go higher. Positivity! Rah rah, go team!
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think you covered pretty much all the bases.
Soar on!
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I need a Forester level drop or two yet so I can get an even better buy! Of course if it keeps going up I'll take what I can get. At least the Schiller PE and CAPE 10, CAPE 666, and 1/CAPE (OH NOES!!!!1) worshipers are staying quiet and possibly rethinking party orthodoxy...
-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Here we go again
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Oh no. I'm still doomy. The doom will come. Eventually. It could be awhile. Or not. Who knows. But this is a pep rally. So we cheer. Or hide under the bleachers. Either or.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Asia-Pacific looking good so far.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
OK. I'm still a buyer. Just wondering whose pocket my cash is going into. Guess it wasn't yours!
Nah... current overvaluation doesn't pose a problem as long as we accept diminished returns going forward.
You mean you didn't properly thank Forester per the below...?
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is nothing that a great big dose of inflation won't cure.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We made it through yesterday with no tapering.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.456M wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 am S&P P/E ratios have been steadily declining since the start of 2021 (Data on Page 7).
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We are definitely soaring today. Not as nicely as yesterday, but back to back plus days are always appreciated.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is the thing missed by those crying high US PE. They are looking at old data and failed to see future estimates.atdharris wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:14 amYes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.456M wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 am S&P P/E ratios have been steadily declining since the start of 2021 (Data on Page 7).
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My Amazon shares have taken off. Not sure what is causing that but I'll take it
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Agree. If you flip that around, a 5% forward earnings yield isn’t bad considering corporate bonds are around 2% and the risk free rate (T-Bills) is 0.1%.atdharris wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:14 amYes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.456M wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 am S&P P/E ratios have been steadily declining since the start of 2021 (Data on Page 7).
At the peak of the dot-com bubble, the S&P500 forward earnings yield was 4% and corporate bonds were 6%!
Stocks definitely ain’t cheap right now, but I’m not buying into all the doom-and-gloom.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So why aren't you helping the tortoise, Leon?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pmForester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pmDidn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Nah... I do not accept. Most would be in crypto by then if we we just "accept lower returns", which I don't. I accept historical average.
-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
So I'm about 2% off my ATH. Feeling good about the market again.
Too much daily noise.
Too much daily noise.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm about 1.5%. Getting close.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Does anyone have records showing prior future estimates? Just 10 years worth or so. I would be very interested.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 amThis is the thing missed by those crying high US PE. They are looking at old data and failed to see future estimates.atdharris wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:14 amYes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.456M wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 am S&P P/E ratios have been steadily declining since the start of 2021 (Data on Page 7).
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If you're trying to provoke an emotional response, you need to mention "international". Ideally in combination with some expression of US exceptionalism, better recent past performance, the persistence prediction, and "I don't need no stinkin' geographic diversification ppppffffth".Toadie wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:05 pmSo why aren't you helping the tortoise, Leon?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 3:03 pmForester originally posted it on 10/7. I reposted on 10/11 and now again on 10/14.sailaway wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:03 pmDidn't someone say that last week, too? Was that you? Are you trying to become a meme? Or a bot?Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 14, 2021 1:57 pm History may judge October 14 2021 as a gift, a last chance saloon to investors who were minded to de-risk / diversify out of US megacap FAANG.
I am not a bot nor am I trying to become a meme.
Omg. Do it. Watch TDG flip that tortoise back over. Over and over and over again. Silly tortoise. Silly me for watching.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
My theory is that Amazon might have fewer supply chain issues than its competitors. I also wonder if Wal-Mart has done well recently, their supply chain has been very good, their reputation was that if you couldn't find it somewhere else, chances were you could find it at Wal-Mart.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Future estimates are often wrong and overly optimisticMarseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 amThis is the thing missed by those crying high US PE. They are looking at old data and failed to see future estimates.atdharris wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 9:14 amYes, all things considered, a forward PE of 20 is not all that bad relative to interest rates.456M wrote: ↑Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:47 am S&P P/E ratios have been steadily declining since the start of 2021 (Data on Page 7).
Profit margins are abnormally high by historical standards, which is usually followed by subpar earnings growth because it’s not sustainable
PE10 is used for this reason, and while not perfect it smoothes out the abnormally good or bad years
Last edited by Nathan Drake on Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
20% VOO | 20% VXUS | 20% AVUV | 20% AVDV | 20% AVES
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I looked up the historical average and I can guarantee to you that long-term returns from this point to, say, the end of the decade, won't be that number. They will be over or under.
Just to clarify... by "diminished returns" I didn't mean relative to historical average. I meant relative to what they would've been, had we not soared. For example, we don't know at what number the S&P will finish the decade, but it's a mathematical fact that returns from the current number to that endpoint are less than from some lower number to that endpoint. If, for example, we reach the 2029 endpoint number this year, then the remaining price return on the S&P will be zero for the rest of the decade. That is an example of diminished returns.
Not accepting diminished returns is mathematically equivalent to not accepting the soaring. And now that we know your position, glad to hear it!
Following up on this...
Just to clarify... my meaning was that I'm happy that Forester now has an apprentice in the delicate art of forecasting, and that it would be "good form" to thank him for your apprenticeship.
Good luck.
Last edited by HanSolo on Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
1week from today, Tesla will close over $1,000 for the first time. I mean I’m pretty sure at least
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
When we shop at Sam's Club, it looks like they're not having an issues at all. All shelves are stocked.nedsaid wrote: ↑Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:15 amMy theory is that Amazon might have fewer supply chain issues than its competitors. I also wonder if Wal-Mart has done well recently, their supply chain has been very good, their reputation was that if you couldn't find it somewhere else, chances were you could find it at Wal-Mart.
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