U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I guess Papa Powell soothed markets yesterday with whatever he said.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
And that is a complete miracle -- when I read what he said it did not seem that soothing to me. If the market had dropped 5%, financial writers could have justified the drop by pointing to Powell's statement.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Last hurrah??? Or just getting ready for the debt ceiling drama. Either way, I'm okay with soaring but also prepare for free fall. We should have a thread on that
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I recommend this Odd Lots interview with Rob Kaplan of the Dallas Fed. A lot of the stuff he talked about there seems to have set the stage for yesterday.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Love "Odd Lots", my favorite podcast.drk wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:01 pmI recommend this Odd Lots interview with Rob Kaplan of the Dallas Fed. A lot of the stuff he talked about there seems to have set the stage for yesterday.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Thank you, will check it outdrk wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:01 pmI recommend this Odd Lots interview with Rob Kaplan of the Dallas Fed. A lot of the stuff he talked about there seems to have set the stage for yesterday.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's almost as if, nobody knows nothing!Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 amYeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Yeah, this is why passive investing is so effective. Personally I don't necessarily frame it as knowing or not knowing, but the market is irrational; so the right move is to simply stay in and hope it goes up over the long term.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Thank you for the Odd Lots reference. I’ve subscribed and listening now.drk wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 1:01 pmI recommend this Odd Lots interview with Rob Kaplan of the Dallas Fed. A lot of the stuff he talked about there seems to have set the stage for yesterday.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
OK with soaring and prepared for free fall is a big chunk of the wiki, and what many threads are about! Bogleheads 101 - Don't try to time the market, stay the course and all that.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Free falls are great, because then we get to read about Forester's elaborate disquisition about the doom & gloom forthcoming.
Simplicity is the key to brilliance - Vti & chill.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
TINAMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 amYeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Eventually he's going to be right!xraygoggles wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 2:06 pmFree falls are great, because then we get to read about Forester's elaborate disquisition about the doom & gloom forthcoming.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
We had better brace for both parabola and crash.RyeBourbon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:57 pmTINAMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 amYeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
Maybe time for long vol?
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looks like a red day. Time to fire up the free fall thread.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
A very strange day, SPX futures looked bloody premarket but SPX open was not crazy. VXUS -1% presumably because Hang Seng went -1.3%.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
VEA(Developed Markets) is about the same. Does VEA hold China stocks?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:29 am A very strange day, SPX futures looked bloody premarket but SPX open was not crazy. VXUS -1% presumably because Hang Seng went -1.3%.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Based on this, I don't see China: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vea
Maybe they are considered EM rather than developed.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think you're right. China is considered EM.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:16 amBased on this, I don't see China: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/portfolio/vea
Maybe they are considered EM rather than developed.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
European markets were also down about 1%.lostdog wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 10:04 amVEA(Developed Markets) is about the same. Does VEA hold China stocks?Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 9:29 am A very strange day, SPX futures looked bloody premarket but SPX open was not crazy. VXUS -1% presumably because Hang Seng went -1.3%.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Melt. Up. In. Progress.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
000 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:35 amWe had better brace for both parabola and crash.RyeBourbon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:57 pmTINAMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 amYeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
Maybe time for long vol?
Set the AA Controls for the Heart of the Sun.
Last edited by RyeBourbon on Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Did you mean for the "...Heart of the Sun?RyeBourbon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:09 pm000 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:35 amWe had better brace for both parabola and crash.RyeBourbon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:57 pmTINAMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 amYeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
Maybe time for long vol?
Set the AA Controls for the Center of the Sun.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Indeed I didmarcopolo wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:22 pmDid you mean for the "...Heart of the Sun?RyeBourbon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 5:09 pm000 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 24, 2021 12:35 amWe had better brace for both parabola and crash.RyeBourbon wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:57 pmTINAMarseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 23, 2021 10:14 am
Yeah, I don't understand this either. Chair Powell did not sound dovish to me.
Maybe time for long vol?
Set the AA Controls for the Center of the Sun.
Retired June 2023. AA = 55/35/10
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is the symptom of a global financial asset bubble, not the cause.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
You're doing better... You weren't dumb enough to say 2021 Q4 (and then try to explain later that Q4 can sometimes also include January)
Instead you said 2021/2022, so you're covered for a while.
But even better, you should say "Highly likely that many more Evergrandes will be uncovered in 2021/22 the future"
Then you can claim victory no matter when it happens (if it happens).
Also kudos on "highly likely" instead of your normal utterly confident assertions.
With "highly likely", you're covered even if it DOESN'T happen.
Your AI program is getting better and better every week!
Last edited by HomerJ on Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I think that this prediction may have some validity. Who knows what other landmines are buried in the Chinese (and other) markets?
The question is whether problems in little-known companies like Evergrande will turn into a contagion. Central bankers have recently poured buckets of money into making sure that asset prices remain high. Do the bankers still have dry powder for future problems?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I like this chart... if you look at it it shows forward PE fairly stable around 16-17 until something changed in Q4 2019. With forward EPS at 210 and a 17 multiple we get fair value at 3600 or so on the SPX which is 20% lower than where we are at today. As for the low interest rate argument - the situation was still stable around Q3 2019 when interest rates were very low but seems to have suddenly taken off after that.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
OMG!!!! Do I actually agree with you?
I would say "Possible that more Evergrandes will be uncovered in the future. - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is a symptom of modern system-wide entanglement, not the cause."
No. I guess not. That's not actually close enough to call it agreement.
Whew
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
No one knows the precise causes of Evergrande's impending defaults, except perhaps Evergrande top-level Execs and China's top government officials. But, we can only speculate. I'll speculate that Evergrande's operations weren't scrutized and regulated the way they would be in most well-developed markets, in non-communist Countries. Perhaps, China's Government was receiving payoffs from Evergrande, in exchange for "free reins". If so, that situation would not be necessarily symptomatic of a global financial asset bubble.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Perhaps we can get concensus that it is likely (say 90 percent chance) some additional Evergrandes will come to light over the next 24 months.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:01 amOMG!!!! Do I actually agree with you?
I would say "Possible that more Evergrandes will be uncovered in the future. - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is a symptom of modern system-wide entanglement, not the cause."
No. I guess not. That's not actually close enough to call it agreement.
Whew
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Just say likely. Don't put a number on it. 24 months isn't good either... in the future is always preferred. You can say "near future" if you want. That's still not exact.L84SUPR wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:44 amPerhaps we can get concensus that it is likely (say 90 percent chance) some additional Evergrandes will come to light over the next 24 months.vanbogle59 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 11:01 amOMG!!!! Do I actually agree with you?
I would say "Possible that more Evergrandes will be uncovered in the future. - no one in the West had heard of Evergrande a month ago. Evergrande is a symptom of modern system-wide entanglement, not the cause."
No. I guess not. That's not actually close enough to call it agreement.
Whew
Plausible deniability is key.
Never ever say an actual number.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
What are you talking about? They borrowed too much money, and couldn't afford to pay it back or even service the interest. You don't need to be on the "inside" to know that. It really is that simple.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.DB2 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Not when you borrow at 1.5% and inflation is at 2%-3%nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:36 amLol…someday that will be the US…
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
There are a lot of them in China from what I have read. It still seems mostly a China thing. There capital markets are fairly walled off from the rest of the world. There are a few markets in the rest of the world that have property price/income ratios similar to China but those are more the exception than the norm.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Not sure the numbers work out so well when you get to a debt-to-GDP ratio of 10x, or 100x.HomerJ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 10:59 amNot when you borrow at 1.5% and inflation is at 2%-3%nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:36 amLol…someday that will be the US…
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
What does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 amIt plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.DB2 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
SPX futures +0.4% for some reason. Nikkei up slightly but not by much...
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Sign up to be one of his "members" and you can learn all about his exclusive Fibonacci Pinball:Keenobserver wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:54 pmWhat does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 amIt plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.DB2 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
He very clearly states to "appropriately prepare" at his stated timeframe of 1-2 years by taking the lessons learned from the Great Depression.Keenobserver wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:54 pmWhat does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 amIt plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.DB2 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
More importantly, why is he so sure we're in wave III instead of V? That's a fairly large assumption.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
It's assumptions all the way down.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:21 pmHe very clearly states to "appropriately prepare" at his stated timeframe of 1-2 years by taking the lessons learned from the Great Depression.Keenobserver wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:54 pmWhat does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 amIt plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.DB2 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
More importantly, why is he so sure we're in wave III instead of V? That's a fairly large assumption.
Kind of like turtles.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Ooooh. You've called infinite regress.HomerJ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 11:26 pmIt's assumptions all the way down.Beensabu wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:21 pmHe very clearly states to "appropriately prepare" at his stated timeframe of 1-2 years by taking the lessons learned from the Great Depression.Keenobserver wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 7:54 pmWhat does he suggest we do? I didnt see any options or advice other than doomsday predictions.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Sun Sep 26, 2021 9:35 amIt plays well with my gut feels…fortunately or unfortunately I’m close to retirement so I’m moving to a “safer” AA so will miss out on some of those projected gains to 6000.DB2 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 25, 2021 10:45 am If we are going to play the speculation game, I like this guy's take. S&P 500 hitting about 6000 by 2023 while going through a 10+ year bear market dropping 70%-80%.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/442987 ... ame-ending
More importantly, why is he so sure we're in wave III instead of V? That's a fairly large assumption.
Kind of like turtles.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
stocks -> down
bonds -> down
gold -> down
silver -> down
cash -> down (because of inflation)
2 fed presidents resigning doesn't help.
we need the new stimulus bills asap.
bonds -> down
gold -> down
silver -> down
cash -> down (because of inflation)
2 fed presidents resigning doesn't help.
we need the new stimulus bills asap.