I don't know how long your investment horizon is, but I'm guessing that there are people alive today who had to hang on for an even longer period to recover from a stock market downturn. I'm not saying that this is the more likely outcome, just a possibility that's been demonstrated (even without nuclear war). As long as you're aware that the market does that sometimes, and you're OK with it, then there's no issue.
U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
tomorrow looking ugly.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
"Scared"minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 amYep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pmNah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.
I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…
What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.
Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well that kind of happened in the 2000s...EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm"Scared"minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 amYep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pmNah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.
I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…
What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.
Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.
In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
To my understanding the Great Depression was far worse than the Great Recession though I appreciate where you are coming from. 2009 did not scare me though I did not have much wealth back then. I stayed the course and I bought a few gold coins out of fear. Still have them today to remind me to never do that again. Plus they are pleasing to hold in your hand.HomerJ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pmWell that kind of happened in the 2000s...EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm"Scared"minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 amYep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pmNah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm
1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.
I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…
What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.
Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.
In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
A time to EVALUATE your jitters: |
viewtopic.php?p=1139732#p1139732
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Largely agree with you.HomerJ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pmWell that kind of happened in the 2000s...EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm"Scared"minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 amYep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pmNah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm
1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.
I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…
What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.
Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.
In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
Although, I am betting that year 2000 retiree did have some nervous moments. In hindsight, it looks like the 4% rule will work again, but there were some years where the balance got down pretty low, and no one knew when (maybe even if) were going to come out of it. I suspect even real people who adjusted their spending had some nervous nights.
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
80% is a lot scarier than 60% in or near retirement.HomerJ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pmWell that kind of happened in the 2000s...EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm"Scared"minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 amYep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pmNah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:37 pm
1929 was 20 years of pain right? Honestly, I don’t think hedging against that is viable without deeply impacting future gains.
I guess if you have enough already it’s fine…
What are you doing again? I remember you said you were setting aside gains even beyond the 50/50 level?
Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.
Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.
In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
$400K is like…woah, no more trips for a while. Gonna cut down to $20K a year (2%). 5% for a few years will be bad but the portfolio can recover.
$200K is like…well that whole saving and investing thing was pointless. We’ll burn through 10% a year even with a 50% haircut and a couple, three years of that will mean the portfolio never recovers.
80% isn’t 20% worse than 60%…its half as much money you have to live on if you are retired or facing a higher probability of being unwillingly retired in a depression.
Granted a large part of your AA should be in bonds so things won’t be that dire but GFC and Great Recession was a moderate Cat 4 storm to 1929 and the Great Depression’s Cat 5.
It could have gotten worse but didn’t.
Folks who can live entirely on pensions and/or SS will be okay.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The Great Depression was worse because the Fed did everything wrong. The Great Recession, AT THE TIME, absolutely could have been Great Depression II, except that Ben Bernanke, the Fed Chairman, was a student of the Great Depression, and didn't make the same mistakes.nigel_ht wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 8:54 am80% is a lot scarier than 60% in or near retirement.HomerJ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pmWell that kind of happened in the 2000s...EnjoyIt wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:04 pm"Scared"minimalistmarc wrote: ↑Fri Sep 17, 2021 8:02 amYep, dividends made a big difference and wasn’t there also significant deflation which often gets overlooked? To be honest 1929 doesn’t scare me, but I wouldn’t wish it upon my fellow humans because of the suffering it would inflict.HomerJ wrote: ↑Thu Sep 16, 2021 12:44 pm
Nah, it wasn't 20 years... that's just looking at the stock index price. If you count dividends, you got your money back on the stock side a lot faster.
Me, I've got my 25x sitting at 50/50, and I'm crazy conservative enough that all new gains I'm moving to cash... I have gotten myself to 25x sitting at 50/50 with an extra 2x in cash.
Crazy dumb way to look at it, I know, all mental accounting. One could also just say that I'm 46/54 right with 27x expenses.
I don't believe a 1929 drop will happen. But if it does, I think I would be scared. Maybe not in the first couple of years, but I think after the second dip, right when the market recovers and then plummets again I don't know how many people can handle that and stay the course. When every one I talk to is scared and when the media has nothing to say but doom and gloom, all the while people around me are struggling to pay their rent. Come to think of it, I think I would be terrified.
SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
Media had nothing to say but doom and gloom in late 2008-2009, and they were right to say it. And there were certainly people struggling to pay their mortgage and rent during housing crash.
In fact, your statements match exactly what just happened 10-20 years ago, that maybe I missed the sarcasm?
$400K is like…woah, no more trips for a while. Gonna cut down to $20K a year (2%). 5% for a few years will be bad but the portfolio can recover.
$200K is like…well that whole saving and investing thing was pointless. We’ll burn through 10% a year even with a 50% haircut and a couple, three years of that will mean the portfolio never recovers.
80% isn’t 20% worse than 60%…its half as much money you have to live on if you are retired or facing a higher probability of being unwillingly retired in a depression.
Granted a large part of your AA should be in bonds so things won’t be that dire but GFC and Great Recession was a moderate Cat 4 storm to 1929 and the Great Depression’s Cat 5.
It could have gotten worse but didn’t.
Folks who can live entirely on pensions and/or SS will be okay.
You make all the same points we make here every year when we tell people to go more conservative right before retirement.
100% stock portfolio FAILED for someone retiring in 1929, for exactly the reasons you listed above.
And 100% stock portfolio was pretty scary for anyone who retired in 2000 or 2008. 50-60% drop in 2008 would really hurt, and at the time, indications were that 80% was possible.
A 60/40 portfolio did just fine during the Great Depression and 2000, and would have made 2008 a lot less scary (although 100% stocks worked for a 2008 retiree, since the recovery was so fast).
(As for folks who can live entirely on pensions and/or SS, they are a vanishing small percentage of the population. Less and less people get good pensions every year. Good for them I guess, but none of these discussions really apply to them)
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
anybody going into retirement at 100% stocks after such a run-up is just asking for it...
(of course with a large 'guaranteed' income like a pension that ameliorates it substantially)
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(of course with a large 'guaranteed' income like a pension that ameliorates it substantially)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'll take a bond bridge to go please. 7X in Bonds = very low retirement date risk for us.mr_brightside wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 11:02 am anybody going into retirement at 100% stocks after such a run-up is just asking for it...
(of course with a large 'guaranteed' income like a pension that ameliorates it substantially)
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We all share the same economy and the hazards that come with it. But we perceive the consequences differently based on the specifics of our situations. The trick is to figure out which risks you need to mitigate to sleep well.
Getting my pride hurt because somebody else has a higher personal rate of return or more aggressive AA is a risk I'm willing to take.
Having to work several more years than I want because I imagine myself as having high risk tolerance is a risk I don't want to take.
So here I am sitting on a much maligned 60/40 AA.
Edit: spellin'
1/3rd VTWAX, 1/3rd Wellington, 1/3rd G Fund |
All models are wrong. Some are useful.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I'm not sure who is maligning 60/40 in retirement. I'm at 40/60 and feel just fine and unmaligned.
viewtopic.php?t=316934
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Nobody of any consequence, just the bond doomsayers fishing for clicks.namajones wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 12:11 pmI'm not sure who is maligning 60/40 in retirement. I'm at 40/60 and feel just fine and unmaligned.
viewtopic.php?t=316934
Thanks for the link.
1/3rd VTWAX, 1/3rd Wellington, 1/3rd G Fund |
All models are wrong. Some are useful.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Meltup at the end may portend better things tomorrow.
Last edited by Nicolas on Mon Sep 20, 2021 7:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
- Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Soared right into close!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Tomorrow probably goes green, the big question is Wednesday + FOMC.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I don't see any soaring. Why is this thread active?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Because the other one is too crowded right now.
Plus if we don't keep bumping this thread, we may never find it again
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
As long as the roots are not severed, all is well. And all will be well in the garden.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Future is green for the moment so just warming up the thread for tomorrow.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I wouldn't celebrate anything until after the FOMC. The rates decision not a big deal this time, but a huge press conference coming up.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Alright, back to the bear cave then. It's starting to get chilly outside anyway.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 20, 2021 9:41 pm I wouldn't celebrate anything until after the FOMC. The rates decision not a big deal this time, but a huge press conference coming up.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Firing up this thread today.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Looks like a taper down in progress...
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
And down we go
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
The board still looks green to me.
We had the usual opening bell price discovery fluctuations, but it is settling in at least a little bit positive.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
For now... sort of a sad 0.14% bounce after yesterday's 2.5% sell-off
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
... also known as a "dead cat bounce."
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
An amazing fact that very few people ever contemplate:HomerJ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pm SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
On 3/5/2009 the S&P 500 hit its bottom for the 2000s bear market. Inflation adjusted to current 2021 value, the index sat at 822.
That value was effectively equivalent to the top of the index (again in inflation adjusted terms) for the 1960s Go Go years achieved at 830 on 11/29/1968.
That means over 40 years of S&P 500 growth had disappeared! But! that day was actually not the worst long-term price return in the history of the US Stock Market!
9/7/1929 (495) to 8/12/1982 (286) was even worse and over a decade longer!
Oh what days to buy
Real investors had very different returns of course due to dividend reinvestment and regular contributions for saving purposes. But just looking at the "market", the GFC was about as bad as it gets.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
cat is live and bouncing
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Well, the saying is that cats have 9 lives...
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
None of the above includes dividends, so it's really not a very good analysis... I know you are quoting me, and I skipped dividends too, so I'm guilty as well, but you're skipping dividends for 40 and 50 years, and that's HUGE... Like you're missing 500% (more?) of the stock market gains over those years.retiringwhen wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:57 amAn amazing fact that very few people ever contemplate:HomerJ wrote: ↑Sun Sep 19, 2021 11:30 pm SP500 was at 1400 at the top in 2000, crashed to 800, got back to 1400 around 2006, 1550 around 2007, and then crashed again down to like 660 in 2009 (Stock market index investments actually recovered faster and did better than that, because the above ignores dividends).
On 3/5/2009 the S&P 500 hit its bottom for the 2000s bear market. Inflation adjusted to current 2021 value, the index sat at 822.
That value was effectively equivalent to the top of the index (again in inflation adjusted terms) for the 1960s Go Go years achieved at 830 on 11/29/1968.
That means over 40 years of S&P 500 growth had disappeared! But! that day was actually not the worst long-term price return in the history of the US Stock Market!
9/7/1929 (495) to 8/12/1982 (286) was even worse and over a decade longer!
Oh what days to buy
Real investors had very different returns of course due to dividend reinvestment and regular contributions for saving purposes. But just looking at the "market", the GFC was about as bad as it gets.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This is what I said in another post about the reason for my chart:HomerJ wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 10:52 am None of the above includes dividends, so it's really not a very good analysis... I know you are quoting me, and I skipped dividends too, so I'm guilty as well, but you're skipping dividends for 40 and 50 years, and that's HUGE... Like you're missing 500% (more?) of the stock market gains over those years.
Price Change Only - This is a representation of the S&P 500 price change over time and does not factor in Total Return (aka reinvested dividends.) Actual investor returns would be vastly different. For example a reinvestment strategy would shorten the total return recovery (even inflation adjusted) by approximately half for all three of the Major Secular Bear Markets. I know first hand that the 2000s were much better to me than this chart would suggest. But, this chart is about fear, not returns...
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Definitely a roller coaster today.
Stocks-80% || Bonds-20% || VTI/VXUS/AOR
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I have so much faith in the soaring, that I bought some SQQQ at 7.95. Hope it end up costing me a pretty penny.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Is a melt up at the end of the day too much to ask for?
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Another day with future green but we'll see what happen after the FOMC meeting.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
I agree. Any "tightening", either real or perceived, will not be appreciated by Mr. (US Equity) Market.Marseille07 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 21, 2021 9:41 pmI'm expecting a red day after the FOMC presser by Chair Powell. I don't think the market would like what he will say.
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
This week's nervousness will soon be forgotten. S&P 500 is poised to rebound and sprint to around 4,800 by late November, marking the ultimate top before a truly calamitous 2020s for all assets from stocks and bonds to house prices.
Amateur Self-Taught Senior Macro Strategist
Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Would love to see 4800 before the end of the year!
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds