Robot Monster wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 9:46 am
Yeah, you're right, I probably should have waited till it hit $145...which would have been a 20% drop since yesterday. Oh well. Live and learn!
Next time I will consult with Bogleheads for the appropriate price targets.
Don't get me wrong, while I am not into single stocks personally, I would be happy to own a company like Clorox. It is a solid profit generating engine with the maturity and name-recognition to last for decades to come. Maybe a company like BRK buys it and you get a pop along the way. Could they be a $50 billion company in 2030? Absolutely possible with a little luck.
Okay, that makes me feel better about my little Clorox funny money bet.
atdharris wrote: ↑Tue Aug 03, 2021 10:43 am
12% is nothing. My Pinterest shares are down 30% since Wednesday!
Thanks for putting the fabric softener in Clorox tumble.
Robinhood up 25% on the day, finally above IPO price! I think it could be a meme stock after all maybe half a trilly in market cap when it is all said and done.
To top it off, I'm #2 in the Bogleheads Contest. See: Boglehead Contest 2021 Recording here for posterity. I'm wondering if I should have traded a bit earlier in the day to boost the market up a few more points.
Anyone else thinking about selling SCV funds due to the sharp rise in the number of new cases (the logic is - SCV has many "recovery stocks" which are likely to be affected in case of more lockdowns)?
UncleLeo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:31 am
Anyone else thinking about selling SCV funds due to the sharp rise in the number of new cases (the logic is - SCV has many "recovery stocks" which are likely to be affected in case of more lockdowns)?
The market knows anything you know. Any logic is already factored into the prices to the extent the market thinks it should be.
That's the problem with "the logic." There are 1000 pieces of logic and they combine to form the market price. Acting on any of it makes a bet on somebody's logic and against somebody else's.
UncleLeo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:31 am
Anyone else thinking about selling SCV funds due to the sharp rise in the number of new cases (the logic is - SCV has many "recovery stocks" which are likely to be affected in case of more lockdowns)?
In my opinion a position in SCV is a long term position. You have to be willing to stick to it for the long haul. This is also the opinion of Larry Swedroe, Paul Merriman, William Bernstein etc. basically anyone that recommends SCV investing.
Timing the market is difficult. You have to get out at the right time but just as important; you have to get back in at the right time. The odds of getting it right twice are stacked against you.
UncleLeo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:31 am
Anyone else thinking about selling SCV funds due to the sharp rise in the number of new cases (the logic is - SCV has many "recovery stocks" which are likely to be affected in case of more lockdowns)?
UncleLeo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:31 am
Anyone else thinking about selling SCV funds due to the sharp rise in the number of new cases (the logic is - SCV has many "recovery stocks" which are likely to be affected in case of more lockdowns)?
No, SCV is a long term buy and hold portion of my equity allocation…it shouldn’t be used to time
UncleLeo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:31 am
Anyone else thinking about selling SCV funds due to the sharp rise in the number of new cases (the logic is - SCV has many "recovery stocks" which are likely to be affected in case of more lockdowns)?
UncleLeo wrote: ↑Wed Aug 04, 2021 12:31 am
Anyone else thinking about selling SCV funds due to the sharp rise in the number of new cases (the logic is - SCV has many "recovery stocks" which are likely to be affected in case of more lockdowns)?
Looks like GS is upgrading their previous 2021 price target for the S&P500 from 4300 to 4700, about a 6.7% increase from its current price.
I love it! It's like me predicting before a game that Kevin Durant will score 30 points, then "upgrading" my "target" to 45 after the third quarter, when he's already got 34 points.
Looks like GS is upgrading their previous 2021 price target for the S&P500 from 4300 to 4700, about a 6.7% increase from its current price.
I love it! It's like me predicting before a game that Kevin Durant will score 30 points, then "upgrading" my "target" to 45 after the third quarter, when he's already got 34 points.
How silly and pointless.
I agree it is pointless but Kevin can’t unscore points in the second half. The market can.
Looks like GS is upgrading their previous 2021 price target for the S&P500 from 4300 to 4700, about a 6.7% increase from its current price.
I love it! It's like me predicting before a game that Kevin Durant will score 30 points, then "upgrading" my "target" to 45 after the third quarter, when he's already got 34 points.
How silly and pointless.
I agree it is pointless but Kevin can’t unscore points in the second half. The market can.
Valid point, but it's still very easy to change a target with less than five months left in the year.
These are the same people that do 10 year forecasts as well, and yet here they are "upgrading their target" for a one year forecast.
The headline should have been: Goldman Admits Defeat
"We get this dead wrong, and 4300 was just a bad call," admitted Goldman Sachs senior economist Winston Muttonchops. "I'm only glad no one holds us to past predictions."
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:24 am
The headline should have been: Goldman Admits Defeat
"We get this dead wrong, and 4300 was just a bad call," admitted Goldman Sachs senior economist Winston Muttonchops. "I'm only glad no one holds us to past predictions."
Any prediction should contain a link to all previous predictions, monitored by an independent third party for completeness and scored for accuracy.
If you are good at seeing the future, this would be worth lot of money.
If you suck at it, you don't want anybody looking at your track record.
So, what is the most likely reason such track records aren't published?
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:21 am
These are the same people that do 10 year forecasts as well, and yet here they are "upgrading their target" for a one year forecast.
That's an important point.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Robot Monster wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 8:24 am
The headline should have been: Goldman Admits Defeat
"We get this dead wrong, and 4300 was just a bad call," admitted Goldman Sachs senior economist Winston Muttonchops. "I'm only glad no one holds us to past predictions."
LOL
Precisely.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
To top it off, I'm #2 in the Bogleheads Contest. See: Boglehead Contest 2021 Recording here for posterity. I'm wondering if I should have traded a bit earlier in the day to boost the market up a few more points.
h82goslw wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:18 pm
43 all time highs this year. Thanks to this forum, that worries me.
I am not worried. All time highs make me happy.
Inspired by my neighbors on the street, that keep blasting music in the alley all the time, I will leave these words of wisdom:
"Don't worry about a thing
'Cause every little thing gonna be all right
Singin': "Don't worry about a thing
'Cause every little thing gonna be all right!"
Whether the market is greedy, or fearful... just keep singin' those words. haha
h82goslw wrote: ↑Thu Aug 05, 2021 5:18 pm
43 all time highs this year. Thanks to this forum, that worries me.
This is the second longest streak on record for the S&P w/o a 5% correction so the all time highs may feel magnified since even when they’re not being hit they’re basically resting just below pretty much all of the time. It’s a perma all time high market of sorts.
It’s been since last fall, so rapidly coming up on a full calendar year.