U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:28 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:11 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
Likely irrelevant. SWR models are all ATH based, if you plan /w 100% success on the Monte Carlos, getting your butt handed to you is already baked in.

Honestly, I worry more about my bond allocation with these yields than I do market crashes. Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
You just pointed out a critical flaw of SWR methodology
It’s the absolute worst way of planning — except for every other one. No method is perfect I’m afraid.

Ultimately I’ll be ok, I just worry because that’s what Bogleheads are good at. We worry… and we save.
Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:35 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:28 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:11 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
Likely irrelevant. SWR models are all ATH based, if you plan /w 100% success on the Monte Carlos, getting your butt handed to you is already baked in.

Honestly, I worry more about my bond allocation with these yields than I do market crashes. Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
You just pointed out a critical flaw of SWR methodology
It’s the absolute worst way of planning — except for every other one. No method is perfect I’m afraid.

Ultimately I’ll be ok, I just worry because that’s what Bogleheads are good at. We worry… and we save.
You may not be OK if you assume the standard 4% SWR will hold. It has failed before in the past. Valuations are higher now than they were in the past. So the best alternative to an already failed methodology is lower your SWR and take into account flexible spending rules.

Either one results in needing increasingly higher ATHs than what was needed in the past.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:11 pm Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
What reason do you have to believe that interest rates will remain low for multiple decades? Just because they are low now?

There are periods of low interest rates in the historical record... They didn't last multi-decades...

Those ton of stock market crashes in the historical record didn't usually last too long either... That's why you're not worried about them.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:46 pm You may not be OK if you assume the standard 4% SWR will hold. It has failed before in the past. Valuations are higher now than they were in the past. So the best alternative to an already failed methodology is lower your SWR and take into account flexible spending rules.

Either one results in needing increasingly higher ATHs than what was needed in the past.
3.8% is the lowest U.S. SWR and it happened in 1966. Every other year 4% SWR worked. You can technically call 4% a "failed methodology" but you are being deceptive when you do so.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Trader Joe
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Trader Joe »

Yes:

Closing - July 23, 2021:

Market Sumary
S&P 500
INDEXSP: .INX
4,411.79 +44.31 (.01%)today


I continue to be very happy with my 100% U.S. VTSAX/VFIAX investment results.
I am staying the course. No change here - at all.
2pedals
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 2pedals »

mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:35 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:28 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:11 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
Likely irrelevant. SWR models are all ATH based, if you plan /w 100% success on the Monte Carlos, getting your butt handed to you is already baked in.

Honestly, I worry more about my bond allocation with these yields than I do market crashes. Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
You just pointed out a critical flaw of SWR methodology
It’s the absolute worst way of planning — except for every other one. No method is perfect I’m afraid.

Ultimately I’ll be ok, I just worry because that’s what Bogleheads are good at. We worry… and we save.
Well....now look at what you've done. Now you've busted the bubble. :twisted: All withdrawal strategies are just suggestions, so what now? ...we worry.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:50 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:46 pm You may not be OK if you assume the standard 4% SWR will hold. It has failed before in the past. Valuations are higher now than they were in the past. So the best alternative to an already failed methodology is lower your SWR and take into account flexible spending rules.

Either one results in needing increasingly higher ATHs than what was needed in the past.
3.8% is the lowest U.S. SWR and it happened in 1966. Every other year 4% SWR worked. You can technically call 4% a "failed methodology" but you are being deceptive when you do so.
You argue quite a lot that P/E is meaningless. That it just continues to go up in perpetuity. So we are at nearly 40 right now. Bonds are over 70.

Unless you think equities are going to 60 and bonds over 100, a static position in valuations from where we are now MAY be OK for 30 years if inflation isn’t too bad.

If mean reversion occurs and inflation runs hotter, it’s a disaster. You can only ignore the evidence so much. Yes, 1966 may have been the only data point of a failure, but we are also at an unprecedented level of valuations for the two largest assets in most people’s portfolio.

I would not plan on 4% succeeding because it’s success was when most data points for valuations being significantly lower than they are today. These factors aren’t independent of each other
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stocknoob4111
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by stocknoob4111 »

Real return of bonds in the 66 cycle was very very low as well.. due to inflation. Real is what matters. We have much lower inflation today...
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:06 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:50 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:46 pm You may not be OK if you assume the standard 4% SWR will hold. It has failed before in the past. Valuations are higher now than they were in the past. So the best alternative to an already failed methodology is lower your SWR and take into account flexible spending rules.

Either one results in needing increasingly higher ATHs than what was needed in the past.
3.8% is the lowest U.S. SWR and it happened in 1966. Every other year 4% SWR worked. You can technically call 4% a "failed methodology" but you are being deceptive when you do so.
You argue quite a lot that P/E is meaningless. That it just continues to go up in perpetuity. So we are at nearly 40 right now. Bonds are over 70.
There is no PE ratio for bonds.
Unless you think equities are going to 60 and bonds over 100, a static position in valuations from where we are now MAY be OK for 30 years if inflation isn’t too bad.
This is completely false. PEs do not need to go up any higher for 4% to work. You don't seem to understand how low a bar 4% is. Low returns will not break 4%. We've had low returns from stocks, bonds, AND double-digit inflation and 4% worked (okay 3.8% in 1966, but 4%+ in all the other starting years during that period).

So low returns from stocks and bonds isn't enough to break 4%. Even low returns from stocks and bonds and ten years of high inflation isn't enough. Because we've had that already. It will have to be even worse.

Possible, sure... But you predicting low stock and low bond returns is nowhere near enough to claim 4% withdrawals are dangerous.

(and besides, you are predicting 10-year low returns... 4% withdrawals take place over 30 years... and 10 low return years will lower valuations, which means the following 10 years will have higher expected returns... this is what you believe in)
Last edited by HomerJ on Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:50 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:06 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:50 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:46 pm You may not be OK if you assume the standard 4% SWR will hold. It has failed before in the past. Valuations are higher now than they were in the past. So the best alternative to an already failed methodology is lower your SWR and take into account flexible spending rules.

Either one results in needing increasingly higher ATHs than what was needed in the past.
3.8% is the lowest U.S. SWR and it happened in 1966. Every other year 4% SWR worked. You can technically call 4% a "failed methodology" but you are being deceptive when you do so.
You argue quite a lot that P/E is meaningless. That it just continues to go up in perpetuity. So we are at nearly 40 right now. Bonds are over 70.
There is no PE ratio for bonds.
Unless you think equities are going to 60 and bonds over 100, a static position in valuations from where we are now MAY be OK for 30 years if inflation isn’t too bad.
This is completely false. PEs do not need to go up any higher for 4% to work.
There is an equivalent measure for bonds I've heard thrown about many times in the financial industry.

So if P/Es dont need to go up, you need abnormally strong earnings growth. I find the latter to be unlikely since margins and tax treatment are at some of the best in history right now.

Anyone planning to pull out 4% with inflation every year like a robot with these starting valuations is simply deluding themselves into believing too rigidly in a rule that we have very limited long-term data for. And the 4% rule was based on stock returns of the best performing market. Globally, it is less.

10 year poor returns doesnt mean next 10 will be good. P/E could gradually drip down from 40 to 10 over a period of 20-30 years, and if inflation is bad and earnings not great then this will be a terrible period. I'm not predicting anything other than expected returns for stocks/bonds being low from where we are now unless a Japan style melt-up occurs. This should be plainly obvious.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:50 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:06 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:50 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:46 pm You may not be OK if you assume the standard 4% SWR will hold. It has failed before in the past. Valuations are higher now than they were in the past. So the best alternative to an already failed methodology is lower your SWR and take into account flexible spending rules.

Either one results in needing increasingly higher ATHs than what was needed in the past.
3.8% is the lowest U.S. SWR and it happened in 1966. Every other year 4% SWR worked. You can technically call 4% a "failed methodology" but you are being deceptive when you do so.
You argue quite a lot that P/E is meaningless. That it just continues to go up in perpetuity. So we are at nearly 40 right now. Bonds are over 70.
There is no PE ratio for bonds.
Unless you think equities are going to 60 and bonds over 100, a static position in valuations from where we are now MAY be OK for 30 years if inflation isn’t too bad.
This is completely false. PEs do not need to go up any higher for 4% to work.
There is an equivalent measure for bonds I've heard thrown about many times in the financial industry.

So if P/Es dont need to go up, you need abnormally strong earnings growth. I find the latter to be unlikely since margins and tax treatment are at some of the best in history right now.
You only need 1% real returns for 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio to last 30 years pulling 4%.

Even the current valuations model does not predict negative or 0% real returns for 30 years. They predict low returns for 10 years, not 0% for 30. If we have 10-15 bad years, then valuations will become lower and they then will predict 10-15 years of good returns. This is the model you believe in. Bad years are followed by good years.

The 40% in bonds is enough to handle the early bad years, if they happen.

4% is a very low bar... It takes just a tiny positive return for 25x expenses to last 30 years.

You may be right that we will see low returns going forward.

But that's not enough to break 4%.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:59 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:50 pm
Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:06 pm
HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:50 pm

3.8% is the lowest U.S. SWR and it happened in 1966. Every other year 4% SWR worked. You can technically call 4% a "failed methodology" but you are being deceptive when you do so.
You argue quite a lot that P/E is meaningless. That it just continues to go up in perpetuity. So we are at nearly 40 right now. Bonds are over 70.
There is no PE ratio for bonds.
Unless you think equities are going to 60 and bonds over 100, a static position in valuations from where we are now MAY be OK for 30 years if inflation isn’t too bad.
This is completely false. PEs do not need to go up any higher for 4% to work.
There is an equivalent measure for bonds I've heard thrown about many times in the financial industry.

So if P/Es dont need to go up, you need abnormally strong earnings growth. I find the latter to be unlikely since margins and tax treatment are at some of the best in history right now.
You only need 1% real returns for 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio to last 30 years pulling 4%.

Even the current valuations model does not predict negative or 0% real returns for 30 years. They predict low returns for 10 years, not 0% for 30. If we have 10-15 bad years, then valuations will become lower and they then will predict 10-15 years of good returns. This is the model you believe in. Bad years are followed by good years.

The 40% in bonds is enough to handle the early bad years, if they happen.

4% is a very low bar... It takes just a tiny positive return for 25x expenses to last 30 years.

You may be right that we will see low returns going forward.

But that's not enough to break 4%.
That’s far too simplistic. You could have 1% real over the 30 year period, but if your first 10-15 are unusually bad it will fail. The sequence matters.

Where we are now - lower expected returns from stocks/bonds and inflation perking up. Doesn’t instill much confidence. I personally wouldn’t risk blindly pulling out 4% adjusted for inflation each year in this historically unprecedented environment
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 11:55 pmAnd the 4% rule was based on stock returns of the best performing market. Globally, it is less.
Globally it is the same, if you ignore Japan and Germany and France in World War II years. Yes, if all your factories get bombed into rubble and 10% of your population dies, 4% probably will not work.

You probably won't care about withdrawal strategies at that point either.
10 year poor returns doesnt mean next 10 will be good. P/E could gradually drip down from 40 to 10 over a period of 20-30 years
Possible. Will returns be low over those 20-30 years or negative? Because low isn't enough.
and if inflation is bad and earnings not great then this will be a terrible period.
Yep, let's add in some more stuff. I guess those are possible too. But will we have bad inflation for 30 years? Will the Fed never step in and raise interest rates?

Yep, it's possible... Do you really think your international stocks will do well in such an environment? Somehow tilting to international will save you in a 30 year low earnings/high inflation scenario?
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:06 am That’s far too simplistic. You could have 1% real over the 30 year period, but if your first 10-15 are unusually bad it will fail. The sequence matters.
Yes, the sequence matters. That's what the bonds are for. 40% in bonds/cash/CDs protects you from the sequence.

It's really not that hard.
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Nathan Drake
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

:confused
HomerJ wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:08 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:06 am That’s far too simplistic. You could have 1% real over the 30 year period, but if your first 10-15 are unusually bad it will fail. The sequence matters.
Yes, the sequence matters. That's what the bonds are for. 40% in bonds/cash/CDs protects you from the sequence.

It's really not that hard.
Bonds won’t save you if they are giving you a negative real return in addition to your stock drawdowns.

It’s really not hard to think that the likelihood of 4% failing today is higher than it’s been in the past, given where we are.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:13 am :confused
HomerJ wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:08 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:06 am That’s far too simplistic. You could have 1% real over the 30 year period, but if your first 10-15 are unusually bad it will fail. The sequence matters.
Yes, the sequence matters. That's what the bonds are for. 40% in bonds/cash/CDs protects you from the sequence.

It's really not that hard.
Bonds won’t save you if they are giving you a negative real return in addition to your stock drawdowns.
Sure they will... A small negative real return even over multiple years isn't the sequence that breaks you. It's a large crash (which is what stocks do) that takes a while to recover (so you're selling stocks for multiple years at 30%-50% down) - that's the sequence that breaks you.

But selling from bonds that are -2% or -5% down won't break you.
It’s really not hard to think that the likelihood of 4% failing today is higher than it’s been in the past, given where we are.
I can see where you are coming from. Bond rates are indeed very low, AND stock valuations are high.

But it is pretty similar to the 1960s.. stock valuations were near record highs then too. Bond rates weren't as low, but interest rates were rising, so bond funds were losing money. And we had ten years of high inflation, even double-digit infation.

So if 4% worked during those years (okay 3.8% in 1966), it's pretty robust. We would need 10 years of high inflation just to match the 1960s, and even that wouldn't be enough... Because 4% mostly worked in that period. We'd need something even worse.

It could happen... I wouldn't tell anyone to blindly pull 4% for 30 years. I wouldn't tell anyone to retire if 4% was bare-bones survival with no room to cut anything.

People should remain flexible.

I'm pretty conservative, just like you... But I think you put far too much faith in the predictions from valuations. But let's say they are right. You don't recognize how low the bar is for 4% to last 30 years... You save 25 years of expenses, you expect it to last 25 years at least... You barely need any growth at all for it to last 30 years. If valuations predict 2% real (and I believe they are predicting higher than that right now, even at these super high levels), that's plenty for 4% to work.

30 years is a long time. We both have no idea what the 2030s or the 2040s will look like.
Last edited by HomerJ on Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:41 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

HomerJ wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 9:11 pm Sims don’t really have any periods with multi-decade low interest rates, they do have tons of crashes however.
What reason do you have to believe that interest rates will remain low for multiple decades? Just because they are low now?

There are periods of low interest rates in the historical record... They didn't last multi-decades...

Those ton of stock market crashes in the historical record didn't usually last too long either... That's why you're not worried about them.
I think you are very likely right. I just hope the change is gentle and gradual.

That said, the last decade has just been fantastic to me. If I screw up my retirement it falls squarely on my shoulders.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:06 am Do you really think your international stocks will do well in such an environment? Somehow tilting to international will save you in a 30 year low earnings/high inflation scenario?
When US stocks catch a cold, international stocks often get the flu.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:08 am
Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:06 am That’s far too simplistic. You could have 1% real over the 30 year period, but if your first 10-15 are unusually bad it will fail. The sequence matters.
Yes, the sequence matters. That's what the bonds are for. 40% in bonds/cash/CDs protects you from the sequence.

It's really not that hard.
25x means 10 years worth of bonds.

Still fine for normal retirement given most folks will get SS at age 70. To have a 30Y retirement means you start at age 67 ending at 97. SS is only 3 years away.

Now early retirees will have a lower SWR and should play more conservative with SORR. At 55 I’m 15 years to SS and 42 years to 97…so I’m going with a 3%-3.25% SWR although I can historically do 3.5ish.

If I’m retiring at 45 I’d definitely do 3%.

The nice thing about SWR is that if your SWR amount is matched to your estimated expenses it’s about as foolproof as you can make it. Every other withdrawal method frontloads and makes SORR worse if it happens. Either you drop below your expenses or runs out of money faster.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:40 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:23 pm S&P 500 does not close above 4400 this year. Discuss.
Definitely at risk here today.
Yes, Mr Market blessed us with a close at 4411.79 on Friday.

Sorry (but inwardly kind of glad) that this projection didn't work out. Any more predictions? :D
Last edited by Stinky on Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

pasadena wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:37 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
No harm in celebrating the small milestones on the way
I've thought about this for a while, and I realize this is my problem with the short-term cheering:

What I hope to do, is simply not care what happens in the short-term. If things take a turn for the worse, I know it's the long-term perspective that is going to get me through that. I want to nurture this long-term perspective in myself. Seeing others cheering on what happens in the short-term throws of that psychological frame of mind.

I guess the solution for me is to simply not visit this thread!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:24 am
I've thought about this for a while, and I realize this is my problem with the short-term cheering:

What I hope to do, is simply not care what happens in the short-term. If things take a turn for the worse, I know it's the long-term perspective that is going to get me through that. I want to nurture this long-term perspective in myself. Seeing others cheering on what happens in the short-term throws of that psychological frame of mind.

I guess the solution for me is to simply not visit this thread!
But when it's possible to enjoy the short term positives while not caring about the short term negatives, why remove a pleasure from life? And actually, the short term negatives (market corrections in the context), are a positive as well since they allow you to buy at cheaper prices. So it's all (depending upon the length of your investing horizon) a positive. :P
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

rchmx1 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:26 am
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:24 am
I've thought about this for a while, and I realize this is my problem with the short-term cheering:

What I hope to do, is simply not care what happens in the short-term. If things take a turn for the worse, I know it's the long-term perspective that is going to get me through that. I want to nurture this long-term perspective in myself. Seeing others cheering on what happens in the short-term throws of that psychological frame of mind.

I guess the solution for me is to simply not visit this thread!
But when it's possible to enjoy the short term positives while not caring about the short term negatives, why remove a pleasure from life? And actually, the short term negatives (market corrections in the context), are a positive as well since they allow you to buy at cheaper prices. So it's all (depending upon the length of your investing horizon) a positive. :P
Okay, I'll buy that. Good points. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:24 am
pasadena wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:37 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
No harm in celebrating the small milestones on the way
I've thought about this for a while, and I realize this is my problem with the short-term cheering:

What I hope to do, is simply not care what happens in the short-term. If things take a turn for the worse, I know it's the long-term perspective that is going to get me through that. I want to nurture this long-term perspective in myself. Seeing others cheering on what happens in the short-term throws of that psychological frame of mind.

I guess the solution for me is to simply not visit this thread!
I agree. Milestones are nice, but they are a bit of a mirage.

Someone cheering in 2000 right before the tech bubble burst had a painful 10 years ahead of them. It's good to keep that into perspective.
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nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 12:26 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 9:24 am
pasadena wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 6:37 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 5:48 pm
mrspock wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 3:56 pm Lord help those sitting in cash. What a day. “Hi my name is ATH, what’s yours?”

:moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag
I'll celebrate in five or ten years, once we know this isn't a bubble. :wink:
No harm in celebrating the small milestones on the way
I've thought about this for a while, and I realize this is my problem with the short-term cheering:

What I hope to do, is simply not care what happens in the short-term. If things take a turn for the worse, I know it's the long-term perspective that is going to get me through that. I want to nurture this long-term perspective in myself. Seeing others cheering on what happens in the short-term throws of that psychological frame of mind.

I guess the solution for me is to simply not visit this thread!
I agree. Milestones are nice, but they are a bit of a mirage.

Someone cheering in 2000 right before the tech bubble burst had a painful 10 years ahead of them. It's good to keep that into perspective.
Not really if the milestone was 3 commas…
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Stinky wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 7:06 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Fri Jul 23, 2021 10:40 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Mon Jul 12, 2021 12:23 pm S&P 500 does not close above 4400 this year. Discuss.
Definitely at risk here today.
Yes, Mr Market blessed us with a close at 4411.79 on Friday.

Sorry (but inwardly kind of glad) that this projection didn't work out. Any more predictions? :D
Yes. Same prediction but 4,500.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go." - Mark Twain
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
Yeah, I've been rebalancing. Got another year of expenses locked away in bonds.

I'm a gambler at the table pocketing chips. Even if the market crashes next week, I'll get to keep half of all the last year's gains.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
You got that right! Although I have reduced my equity exposure in my AA, my portfolio has almost as much solely in bonds as it had in total when I joined this site in 2014. I feel as if my floor has been raised significantly.

About all that I knew about "the Boglehead way" when I joined was to keep costs and transaction fees low. I am a pessimist by nature, but it is difficult to feel gloomy about the markets' performance during the past several years or today's outlook.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nicolas »

We’re almost there, after 22 years. Published in 1999, the authors said we’d be there by 2004! But the dot.com bust, the 9/11 attack, the financial crisis, and the COVID pandemic all got in the way.

Image
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I'm just here goofing around. My AA is such that I am prepared for and happy with whatever the market is doing. I'm happy to lock in more gains and I'm happy to rebalance into more equities.
TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:27 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I'm just here goofing around. My AA is such that I am prepared for and happy with whatever the market is doing. I'm happy to lock in more gains and I'm happy to rebalance into more equities.
The only opportunity I would see to "rebalance" from bonds into stocks would be if bonds did extremely well enough that they EXCEEDED their allotted rebalance bands, something I do not see possible.

More likely, it's a better idea instead to actually invest new money into stocks since you'd be waiting on the sidelines otherwise.

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

TheDDC wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:26 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:27 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I'm just here goofing around. My AA is such that I am prepared for and happy with whatever the market is doing. I'm happy to lock in more gains and I'm happy to rebalance into more equities.
The only opportunity I would see to "rebalance" from bonds into stocks would be if bonds did extremely well enough that they EXCEEDED their allotted rebalance bands, something I do not see possible.

More likely, it's a better idea instead to actually invest new money into stocks since you'd be waiting on the sidelines otherwise.

-TheDDC
Unless I'm a few percent off, I direct new money to the lagging assets when possible.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Earnings week and a fed meeting.

Should be an interesting week! :sharebeer

Cheers!

"“I think earnings are going to be the show, and if the pattern we’ve seen thus far continues next week, and it’s likely it will, that’s going to find a market that has a path of least resistance to the upside and I think that’s good news,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at National Securities."



https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/earning ... swing.html
Last edited by lostdog on Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Broken Man 1999
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:27 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I'm just here goofing around. My AA is such that I am prepared for and happy with whatever the market is doing. I'm happy to lock in more gains and I'm happy to rebalance into more equities.
Not at all. Just referring to the FUD posted every time the various indexes hit an all time high.

None of us can do anything about the market, but one can at least have an AA that can help them through the bad times as well as the good times.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go." - Mark Twain
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:37 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:27 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I'm just here goofing around. My AA is such that I am prepared for and happy with whatever the market is doing. I'm happy to lock in more gains and I'm happy to rebalance into more equities.
Not at all. Just referring to the FUD posted every time the various indexes hit an all time high.

None of us can do anything about the market, but one can at least have an AA that can help them through the bad times as well as the good times.

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I just feel like, if we did hit a rough patch, I think what will get me through that is keeping a long-term perspective, and not care about short-term term performance. That psychological frame of mind is at odds with caring about the day-to-day behavior of the market.

Also, if we did hit a rough patch, and people started to get agitated about short-term performance, I'd want to say, "long-term investors shouldn't care about short-term volatility" and "you only lose money if you sell" -- things that are at odds with the short-term perspective nurtured in this thread.

I have witnessed people get upset about short-term downturns in the freefall thread, and I feel like maybe people wouldn't be if they had adopted a long-term perspective.

On the other hand...

I'm sure there are lots of people out there who can keep a short-term perspective on the way up, and switch to a long-term perspective on the way down. So, I don't want to be a Debbie Downer for people who can do this.

Anyway, I think I've discussed this enough, not just here, but upthread, so moving on...

To get up back on topic....

How about them soaring stocks, eh?!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Robot Monster wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 10:34 am
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:37 am
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:27 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I'm just here goofing around. My AA is such that I am prepared for and happy with whatever the market is doing. I'm happy to lock in more gains and I'm happy to rebalance into more equities.
Not at all. Just referring to the FUD posted every time the various indexes hit an all time high.

None of us can do anything about the market, but one can at least have an AA that can help them through the bad times as well as the good times.

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I just feel like, if we did hit a rough patch, I think what will get me through that is keeping a long-term perspective, and not care about short-term term performance. That psychological frame of mind is at odds with caring about the day-to-day behavior of the market.

Also, if we did hit a rough patch, and people started to get agitated about short-term performance, I'd want to say, "long-term investors shouldn't care about short-term volatility" and "you only lose money if you sell" -- things that are at odds with the short-term perspective nurtured in this thread.

I have witnessed people get upset about short-term downturns in the freefall thread, and I feel like maybe people wouldn't be if they had adopted a long-term perspective.

On the other hand...

I'm sure there are lots of people out there who can keep a short-term perspective on the way up, and switch to a long-term perspective on the way down. So, I don't want to be a Debbie Downer for people who can do this.

Anyway, I think I've discussed this enough, not just here, but upthread, so moving on...

To get up back on topic....

How about them soaring stocks, eh?!
Not referring to YOU or ANYONE in particular at all. I was making a general statement about the fear present when we reach ALHs.

I agree wholeheartedly with your post, especially this:

"....I have witnessed people get upset about short-term downturns in the freefall thread, and I feel like maybe people wouldn't be if they had adopted a long-term perspective...."

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. DW and I are past the 21 mile marker for our marathon, maybe further.

Broken Man 1999
“If I cannot drink Bourbon and smoke cigars in Heaven then I shall not go." - Mark Twain
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 11:02 am Not referring to YOU or ANYONE in particular at all. I was making a general statement about the fear present when we reach ALHs.

I agree wholeheartedly with your post, especially this:

"....I have witnessed people get upset about short-term downturns in the freefall thread, and I feel like maybe people wouldn't be if they had adopted a long-term perspective...."

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. DW and I are past the 21 mile marker for our marathon, maybe further.

Broken Man 1999
:beer
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

The fear around here is common when we hit all time highs. If it continues, we'll see threads about it being a "bubble" popping up soon.

Investing and being human don't mix well. Now if you're a Vulcan...
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marcopolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by marcopolo »

TheDDC wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 11:26 pm
Triple digit golfer wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 10:27 pm
Broken Man 1999 wrote: Sat Jul 24, 2021 3:05 pm Seems like to me some posters just can't stand prosperity!

If one has the ability via their AA to rebalance, they should have a boatload of bonds by now.

If, on the other hand, they don't have a boatload of bonds by now, well, yeah, they might have just cause to be a little skittish, seeing Mr Market continue giving us ATHs.

I have a whole lot more $$ in equities, but I also have a whole lot more $$ in bonds as well.

Recall our most recent decline, even though very minor, the treasury bonds popped up rather nicely. Just in the last few days, remember?

Broken Man 1999
If you're referring to me, I'm just here goofing around. My AA is such that I am prepared for and happy with whatever the market is doing. I'm happy to lock in more gains and I'm happy to rebalance into more equities.
The only opportunity I would see to "rebalance" from bonds into stocks would be if bonds did extremely well enough that they EXCEEDED their allotted rebalance bands, something I do not see possible.

More likely, it's a better idea instead to actually invest new money into stocks since you'd be waiting on the sidelines otherwise.

-TheDDC
Wouldn't a reasonable size drop in equities provide the same rebalancing opportunity from bonds to equities?
You don't see that as a possibility?!?
Once in a while you get shown the light, in the strangest of places if you look at it right.
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

marcopolo wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 2:59 pm Wouldn't a reasonable size drop in equities provide the same rebalancing opportunity from bonds to equities?
You don't see that as a possibility?!?
The concern is that by doing so it turns out that you attempted to catch a falling knife. You kept plugging your safe fixed income into equities that continue to crash, and stay down for long enough that it significantly effects your retirement goals. So when you talk about rebalancing from bonds into equities, it makes a huge difference what stage in your life you're at.
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Portfolio7
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Portfolio7 »

rchmx1 wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 3:43 pm
marcopolo wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 2:59 pm Wouldn't a reasonable size drop in equities provide the same rebalancing opportunity from bonds to equities?
You don't see that as a possibility?!?
The concern is that by doing so it turns out that you attempted to catch a falling knife. You kept plugging your safe fixed income into equities that continue to crash, and stay down for long enough that it significantly effects your retirement goals. So when you talk about rebalancing from bonds into equities, it makes a huge difference what stage in your life you're at.
This came up a few times in March of 2020, and it influenced me. In my mid fifties. My 5% band triggered late in the month. What many people seem to do in this situation is to set a minimum bond amount. Enough to live off of for two years, for example. Everything else would then be eligible for rebalancing into stocks. This is roughly what I did. It does not eliminate the possibility of the falling knife scenario, and in fact it could be a suboptimal rebalance (It seems we all happened to get very lucky with the timing.)

However, even had the market continued down another 25%, it would either rebound shortly, leaving one at least break even... or it might last a decade. In the latter case, Equities reset lower, deflation sets in, and your real net worth declines. You are worse off for having rebalanced... but this is the most unlikely scenario it seems, looking at the past century or so. My thoughts are also influenced by the fact I have other resources, real estate, business, cash, etc, so I suspect that if all that fails to bail me out, I was going down anyways...
"An investment in knowledge pays the best interest" - Benjamin Franklin
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Pre-market is red....
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

lostdog wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 8:32 pm Pre-market is red....
Good, let's buy the dip!
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Cheez-It Guy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

My auto-investments now hit on Monday, so bring it on!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

US SCV is soaring today :)
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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Nathan Drake wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 9:35 am US SCV is soaring today :)
deep dive
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Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

VTI eeking out new highs today while my xus continues the dribble downward.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Vtsax100 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:43 pm VTI eeking out new highs today while my xus continues the dribble downward.
Vanguard International Developed -0.02%
Vanguard Total International -0.59%
Vanguard Emerging -2.12%
China (MCHI) -5.87%

Good stuff!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Nathan Drake »

Intl DM SCV soaring +.77%
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Locked