U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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tadamsmar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by tadamsmar »

The TSM is nice. But the prudent investor should never forget that Dogecoin is the real momentum play.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:02 pm
Hoongajji wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:33 pm Company 1 sales at $524 billion per year.

Company 2 sales at $221 billion per year.

Company 3 sales at $172 billion per year.

Company 4 sales at $58 billion per year.

Company #5 sales at $32 billion per year.

All from 2020 10K annual reports.

For the percentage guru...company #2 is valued at over $2 Trillion?

Company #5 reissued and introduced $12 billion in new shares in 2021.

Company #5 valuation is 30% more than company #1.

Spitball numbers on a Friday night...what companies...what value your index?

:moneybag :sharebeer

Party time!
Oh, sheesh...

Who hacked my chatbot to make it post gibberish?
Try reading it as country music lyrics. It seemed to help when I did it.
This time is the same
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:29 am Anybody else thinks that we may have a beginning of roaring twenties?
Yes
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:29 am Anybody else thinks that we may have a beginning of roaring twenties?
Meaning, what?

There have been multiple boom decades since the 1920s.

Why, specifically, the 1920s?
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Blue456
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Blue456 »

watchnerd wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:19 am
Blue456 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:29 am Anybody else thinks that we may have a beginning of roaring twenties?
Meaning, what?

There have been multiple boom decades since the 1920s.

Why, specifically, the 1920s?
True. No specific reason except for Spanish Flu. Of course it's different this time .
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Doom&Gloom
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

firebirdparts wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:52 am
watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:02 pm
Hoongajji wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:33 pm Company 1 sales at $524 billion per year.

Company 2 sales at $221 billion per year.

Company 3 sales at $172 billion per year.

Company 4 sales at $58 billion per year.

Company #5 sales at $32 billion per year.

All from 2020 10K annual reports.

For the percentage guru...company #2 is valued at over $2 Trillion?

Company #5 reissued and introduced $12 billion in new shares in 2021.

Company #5 valuation is 30% more than company #1.

Spitball numbers on a Friday night...what companies...what value your index?

:moneybag :sharebeer

Party time!
Oh, sheesh...

Who hacked my chatbot to make it post gibberish?
Try reading it as country music lyrics. It seemed to help when I did it.
Need to add a mention of Tesla's Cybertruck and its ramifications for a soaring stock market in order to make that work.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:43 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:27 am I remember last year Mohamed A. El-Erian advocated that people invest in companies that have great balance sheets because they'd be able to survive a prolonged downturn, but now that things are no longer precarious, can we not ditch the safer companies in favor of the riskier ones?
Some think things are no longer precarious and some don't (e.g., the people who administer emergency-type measures like ZIRP/QE). I'd be more confident in an economy that can stand on its own two feet.

In other news, Wednesday turned out to be a good day to rebalance away from commodities. So I did. Since the consensus seems to be that we're headed for inflation, it could be that the increases are already baked in.
Now I feel like I should have rebalanced away from my commodities too. Oh well. My plan has been to just hang onto it (the Vanguard Commodities fund) just for diversification purposes (it's within the confines of my funny money, anyway). I like that I can say I have something for diversification purposes, because no one argues against it. Except once. Someone said something like maybe diversifying yourself into poverty isn't such a hot idea. Thought that comment was funny.

I suppose you are right there are still those out there who think things are still precarious, and I agree with you that it would be nice if the economy could stand on its own two feet.
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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:35 am
Now I feel like I should have rebalanced away from my commodities too. Oh well. My plan has been to just hang onto it (the Vanguard Commodities fund) just for diversification purposes (it's within the confines of my funny money, anyway). I like that I can say I have something for diversification purposes, because no one argues against it. Except once. Someone said something like maybe diversifying yourself into poverty isn't such a hot idea. Thought that comment was funny.
I might be more willing to reconsider commodities if not for the 30-60% in oil that most indexes seem to have.

I just don't see how oil is going to be on an uptrend over the next several decades and that's a lot of weight to put into a commodity the world generally wants to use less of.

But this is massively OT for US stocks soaring so....
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

Blue456 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:27 am
watchnerd wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:19 am
Blue456 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:29 am Anybody else thinks that we may have a beginning of roaring twenties?
Meaning, what?

There have been multiple boom decades since the 1920s.

Why, specifically, the 1920s?
True. No specific reason except for Spanish Flu. Of course it's different this time .
That IS a good comparison though...

I've read books about how people opened up their pocketbooks in the 20s after the Spanish Flu and World War I.

Lot of people may want to enjoy life today instead of saving for the future once we get out from under the pandemic.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
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WingsFan4Life
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by WingsFan4Life »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 12:37 pm
Blue456 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:27 am
watchnerd wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:19 am
Blue456 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 6:29 am Anybody else thinks that we may have a beginning of roaring twenties?
Meaning, what?

There have been multiple boom decades since the 1920s.

Why, specifically, the 1920s?
True. No specific reason except for Spanish Flu. Of course it's different this time .
That IS a good comparison though...

I've read books about how people opened up their pocketbooks in the 20s after the Spanish Flu and World War I.

Lot of people may want to enjoy life today instead of saving for the future once we get out from under the pandemic.
I'm definitely looking forward to lots of travel. In the meantime, keep plowing money into VT and ITOT. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by MoonGlow »

I'm still 100% VTI. Not sure when I will scale back my stock exposure.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

MoonGlow wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:21 pm I'm still 100% VTI. Not sure when I will scale back my stock exposure.
I Bonds are something to consider. I personally make sure to max out the $10K limit every year.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by abuss368 »

Backing up my truck this week.

Tony
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

watchnerd wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:40 am I might be more willing to reconsider commodities if not for the 30-60% in oil that most indexes seem to have.

I just don't see how oil is going to be on an uptrend over the next several decades and that's a lot of weight to put into a commodity the world generally wants to use less of.
One decade. Addictions are hard to kick. Especially on a global level.
But this is massively OT for US stocks soaring so....
Why? At the moment, it's an indicator. You don't get a sustained soar without oil. Completely on topic.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Hoongajji
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Hoongajji »

firebirdparts wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:52 am
watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:02 pm
Hoongajji wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:33 pm Company 1 sales at $524 billion per year.

Company 2 sales at $221 billion per year.

Company 3 sales at $172 billion per year.

Company 4 sales at $58 billion per year.

Company #5 sales at $32 billion per year.

All from 2020 10K annual reports.

For the percentage guru...company #2 is valued at over $2 Trillion?

Company #5 reissued and introduced $12 billion in new shares in 2021.

Company #5 valuation is 30% more than company #1.

Spitball numbers on a Friday night...what companies...what value your index?

:moneybag :sharebeer

Party time!
Oh, sheesh...

Who hacked my chatbot to make it post gibberish?
Try reading it as country music lyrics. It seemed to help when I did it.
What happens when you play a Country music song backwards?

You get your dog, house, job, truck and wife back.

My song - sing along if you wish...is more of a slow paced Funeral procession based theme.

Company #1 will survive. Anyone have a clue what the Hoongajji 5 are?

When one is outdoors the “echo chamber” subsides.

When does a company or index become over valued? And gibberish?

The entirety is the haystack you try to emulate and own. The drive shaft of the tractor pulling the haystack...ignore it? Or be aware?


:sharebeer
gubernaculum
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gubernaculum »

The next 10 years we will see extraordinary gains as human creativity, fueled with much money, will create most valuable companies. 50% VTSAX and 50% VITAX. Going to the moon.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

Hoongajji wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:07 pm
firebirdparts wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:52 am
watchnerd wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 8:02 pm
Hoongajji wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 7:33 pm Company 1 sales at $524 billion per year.

Company 2 sales at $221 billion per year.

Company 3 sales at $172 billion per year.

Company 4 sales at $58 billion per year.

Company #5 sales at $32 billion per year.

All from 2020 10K annual reports.

For the percentage guru...company #2 is valued at over $2 Trillion?

Company #5 reissued and introduced $12 billion in new shares in 2021.

Company #5 valuation is 30% more than company #1.

Spitball numbers on a Friday night...what companies...what value your index?

:moneybag :sharebeer

Party time!
Oh, sheesh...

Who hacked my chatbot to make it post gibberish?
Try reading it as country music lyrics. It seemed to help when I did it.
What happens when you play a Country music song backwards?

You get your dog, house, job, truck and wife back.

My song - sing along if you wish...is more of a slow paced Funeral procession based theme.

Company #1 will survive. Anyone have a clue what the Hoongajji 5 are?

When one is outdoors the “echo chamber” subsides.

When does a company or index become over valued? And gibberish?

The entirety is the haystack you try to emulate and own. The drive shaft of the tractor pulling the haystack...ignore it? Or be aware?


:sharebeer
Omg. Hahahahahahahaaaa. You're the best :D Please keep posting. I really like you.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

Robot Monster wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:35 am
HanSolo wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:43 pm In other news, Wednesday turned out to be a good day to rebalance away from commodities. So I did. Since the consensus seems to be that we're headed for inflation, it could be that the increases are already baked in.
Now I feel like I should have rebalanced away from my commodities too.
For the record, I just trimmed a little on the commodities side. I was a bit overweight on VCMDX and brought it back into line. FWIW, it's still near its ATH (still a good rebalancing opportunity).
watchnerd wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:40 am I might be more willing to reconsider commodities if not for the 30-60% in oil that most indexes seem to have.
Last I checked, VCMDX has less oil exposure than other commodity funds (DBC, GSG, etc.).
But this is massively OT for US stocks soaring so....
To get back on topic, I was making the observation that if stocks, bonds, commodities, and basically everything is "soaring", then maybe nothing is really soaring... it's just that cash went down.
abuss368 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:57 pm Backing up my truck this week.
I was wondering whether your truck has any forward gears.
gubernaculum wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:19 pm The next 10 years we will see extraordinary gains as human creativity, fueled with much money, will create most valuable companies. 50% VTSAX and 50% VITAX. Going to the moon.
I'm wondering if the creativity will be directed at improving our quality of life, or just creating addictions and selling our personal data.

And, to bring this back on topic... I wonder if the market will soar more on the former or on the latter. So far, the 21st century is demonstrating the latter. Of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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mrspock
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by mrspock »

Hoongajji wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 6:49 pm To the recent posts,

i read a story about a company that thought it needed a certain volume of shares traded per day to stay listed on the exchange.

It traded (bought and sold) with “itself” to keep that volume. It was discovered and fined.

Certain corporations today have a P/B ratio off the charts. The valuations of the same corporations are suspicious to be modest.

The US Stock market...returning to the soaring original post.

Nasdaq has increased 10,000 points from 2014 to 2021 only 7 years! Yah Hoo!

In its entire lifetime prior to that Nasdaq increased from zero or whatever to 3800.

We live in a charmed life. :moneybag :moneybag :moneybag :sharebeer

Gonna spend my stimmies on GME and TSLA.

YOLO!

Easy money!

Free! :)
So NASDAQ went up 38x to 3800 and we are supposed to be worried about a 4x? Is your thesis it has far more room to run? I’m confused.

My point here is point based comparisons are useless. 15k or 4x in 20 years sounds impressive right up until you consider the 39x in 29 years. I could make a case it’s grossly under performing its historical CAGR.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

HanSolo wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:37 pm To get back on topic, I was making the observation that if stocks, bonds, commodities, and basically everything is "soaring", then maybe nothing is really soaring... it's just that cash went down.
Yes! Now you're getting somewhere.
mrspock wrote:So NASDAQ went up 38x to 3800 and we are supposed to be worried about a 4x? Is your thesis it has far more room to run? I’m confused.

My point here is point based comparisons are useless. 15k or 4x in 20 years sounds impressive right up until you consider the 39x in 29 years. I could make a case it’s grossly under performing its historical CAGR.
Their point (I think) if you see their latest post, is... what is the drive shaft?

It is always important to pay attention. Unless you can afford not to. I wrote that down right after I threw away my IPS.
Last edited by Beensabu on Sun Apr 18, 2021 12:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

1982-2000, the S&P 500 went from 117 to 1425 or 12x

2009-2021, the S&P 500 has gone from 700 to 4180 or about 6x

So figure we got a ways to go.... :)

Or maybe not...

Kind of reminds of Field of Dreams.
Shoeless Joe Jackson: The first two were high and tight, so where do you think the next one's gonna be?

Archie Graham: Well, either low and away, or in my ear.

Shoeless Joe Jackson: He's not gonna wanna load the bases, so look low and away.

Archie Graham: Right.

Shoeless Joe Jackson: But watch out for in your ear.
So maybe the market will keep going up.

But watch out for in your ear.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by gubernaculum »

HanSolo wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:37 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:35 am
HanSolo wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 4:43 pm In other news, Wednesday turned out to be a good day to rebalance away from commodities. So I did. Since the consensus seems to be that we're headed for inflation, it could be that the increases are already baked in.
Now I feel like I should have rebalanced away from my commodities too.
For the record, I just trimmed a little on the commodities side. I was a bit overweight on VCMDX and brought it back into line. FWIW, it's still near its ATH (still a good rebalancing opportunity).
watchnerd wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:40 am I might be more willing to reconsider commodities if not for the 30-60% in oil that most indexes seem to have.
Last I checked, VCMDX has less oil exposure than other commodity funds (DBC, GSG, etc.).
But this is massively OT for US stocks soaring so....
To get back on topic, I was making the observation that if stocks, bonds, commodities, and basically everything is "soaring", then maybe nothing is really soaring... it's just that cash went down.
abuss368 wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 1:57 pm Backing up my truck this week.
I was wondering whether your truck has any forward gears.
gubernaculum wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:19 pm The next 10 years we will see extraordinary gains as human creativity, fueled with much money, will create most valuable companies. 50% VTSAX and 50% VITAX. Going to the moon.
I'm wondering if the creativity will be directed at improving our quality of life, or just creating addictions and selling our personal data.

And, to bring this back on topic... I wonder if the market will soar more on the former or on the latter. So far, the 21st century is demonstrating the latter. Of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
It has never been about improving the quality of life. It has always been about improving efficiency and profitability. However, the decentralization of investments and unbelievable breakthroughs in tech and healthcare together with huge capital.......will lead to continual innovation and profit making.
UpperNwGuy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:24 pm 1982-2000, the S&P 500 went from 117 to 1425 or 12x

2009-2021, the S&P 500 has gone from 700 to 4180 or about 6x

So figure we got a ways to go.... :)

Or maybe not...
One can only hope.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Hoongajji wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:07 pm

The entirety is the haystack you try to emulate and own. The drive shaft of the tractor pulling the haystack...ignore it? Or be aware?


:sharebeer
Bravo.

Post of the year.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

gubernaculum wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:38 pm
HanSolo wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:37 pm
gubernaculum wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:19 pm The next 10 years we will see extraordinary gains as human creativity, fueled with much money, will create most valuable companies. 50% VTSAX and 50% VITAX. Going to the moon.
I'm wondering if the creativity will be directed at improving our quality of life, or just creating addictions and selling our personal data.

And, to bring this back on topic... I wonder if the market will soar more on the former or on the latter. So far, the 21st century is demonstrating the latter. Of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
It has never been about improving the quality of life.
That's false. There's a degree to which the success of corporations (and therefore soaring markets) has been due to contributing something to society that improves quality of life. Or at least I can say I was around when it was fairly ordinary for that to be the case.

I was pointing out that this correlation exists in some cases more than others, although less so in the 21st century, and wondering whether the observed trend has positive or negative implications for the market.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

HanSolo wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:37 pm I'm wondering if the creativity will be directed at improving our quality of life, or just creating addictions and selling our personal data.

And, to bring this back on topic... I wonder if the market will soar more on the former or on the latter. So far, the 21st century is demonstrating the latter. Of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Necessity is the mother of invention. Of course, we're just speculating here, but a compelling explanation for the industrial revolution was a need born from the Black Death. So much of Europe's population was eradicated by that virus that the choice was innovate or starve. The "West" didn't have the luxury of a huge starting population (compared to the "East"), so they had to figure out how to do more (or at least the equivalent) with less workers. It will be interesting to see if things play out with any corollary through the rest of this century. Potentially at least, climate problems could play an even greater crucible role than the Black Death in the 1400s, and so spur an even greater advancement in technological and other innovations.

Something else that comes to mind, and this is super anecdotal. But the Shark Tank/Dragons Den shows have been on the air for almost 15 years now. You don't want to draw too many conclusions for networks shows like that, but they serve as some kind of window into the thinking of private capital. In the early seasons, the investors showed almost no interest in businesses with a social mission, to the point that they'd respond derisively when the topic would come up. In more recent years, though, there's been a marked change. A business that has big profit potential but also has a clear social mission is viewed more favorably than a similar type of business that has a big profit potential but no social mission. Who knows how much of that is for the camera vs indicative of the thinking of private capital in general, but it is a clearly observable change over the last decade plus.

So I feel like there is reason to be optimistic, but I'm very much an "I'll believe it when I see it" type of person.
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HanSolo
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Post by HanSolo »

rchmx1 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:42 am
HanSolo wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 7:37 pm I'm wondering if the creativity will be directed at improving our quality of life, or just creating addictions and selling our personal data.

And, to bring this back on topic... I wonder if the market will soar more on the former or on the latter. So far, the 21st century is demonstrating the latter. Of course, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Necessity is the mother of invention. Of course, we're just speculating here, but a compelling explanation for the industrial revolution was a need born from the Black Death. So much of Europe's population was eradicated by that virus that the choice was innovate or starve. The "West" didn't have the luxury of a huge starting population (compared to the "East"), so they had to figure out how to do more (or at least the equivalent) with less workers. It will be interesting to see if things play out with any corollary through the rest of this century. Potentially at least, climate problems could play an even greater crucible role than the Black Death in the 1400s, and so spur an even greater advancement in technological and other innovations.

Something else that comes to mind, and this is super anecdotal. But the Shark Tank/Dragons Den shows have been on the air for almost 15 years now. You don't want to draw too many conclusions for networks shows like that, but they serve as some kind of window into the thinking of private capital. In the early seasons, the investors showed almost no interest in businesses with a social mission, to the point that they'd respond derisively when the topic would come up. In more recent years, though, there's been a marked change. A business that has big profit potential but also has a clear social mission is viewed more favorably than a similar type of business that has a big profit potential but no social mission. Who knows how much of that is for the camera vs indicative of the thinking of private capital in general, but it is a clearly observable change over the last decade plus.

So I feel like there is reason to be optimistic, but I'm very much an "I'll believe it when I see it" type of person.
Thanks for your comments. Perhaps some part of my point was misunderstood. I wasn't referring to social mission (as in the sense of so-called ESG investing). I was thinking of things like, for example, GE profiting from producing light bulbs, radios, jet engines, and other things that delivered benefits to society (or homebuilders building houses, or farmers growing food, etc.). On the other hand, tobacco companies profited by deliberately getting people addicted to cigarettes, with no regard to the overall effect it would have on people. My meaning was that, to a significant and increasing degree, Big Tech profits in the 21st century are coming from activities that smell more like the latter than the former (as I said, "creating addictions and selling our personal data"). I'm questioning how much more that trend can play out. Maybe a lot. Maybe not.

The fact that someone earlier in this thread would claim that profitable business "has never been about improving the quality of life" is further evidence of the growing disconnect between business profitability and delivering something positive to society. It's a phenomenon we can observe. The effect on markets going forward is an open question.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by dogagility »

gubernaculum wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:38 pm It has never been about improving the quality of life. It has always been about improving efficiency and profitability.
Agree (after adding the human need to create) and the basic reason why I invest heavily in stocks. Quoting David Byrne... Same as it ever was; Same as it ever was.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by winterfan »

We have been living with a pretty tight budget this year so we can max out the 401k and HSA. I'm getting mildly peeved about purchases not in the budget that have to be made up for somewhere else. Meanwhile, a day's gain in the market surpasses that many times over. It seems like a weird disconnect. :D :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

dogagility wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:43 am
gubernaculum wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 9:38 pm It has never been about improving the quality of life. It has always been about improving efficiency and profitability.
Agree (after adding the human need to create) and the basic reason why I invest heavily in stocks. Quoting David Byrne... Same as it ever was; Same as it ever was.
Maybe it’s only a paradox, then, that the result of all this efficiency is you may find yourself behind the wheel of a large automobile.

This is the most interesting philosophical question I’ve seen today, but of course it’s early.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Somethingwitty92912 »

watchnerd wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:40 am
Robot Monster wrote: Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:35 am
Now I feel like I should have rebalanced away from my commodities too. Oh well. My plan has been to just hang onto it (the Vanguard Commodities fund) just for diversification purposes (it's within the confines of my funny money, anyway). I like that I can say I have something for diversification purposes, because no one argues against it. Except once. Someone said something like maybe diversifying yourself into poverty isn't such a hot idea. Thought that comment was funny.
I might be more willing to reconsider commodities if not for the 30-60% in oil that most indexes seem to have.

I just don't see how oil is going to be on an uptrend over the next several decades and that's a lot of weight to put into a commodity the world generally wants to use less of.

But this is massively OT for US stocks soaring so....
Oil is used in a lot of things besides lube for autos. Basically everything made of plastic, and countless other things. Just some FYI.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Somethingwitty92912 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:56 am
Oil is used in a lot of things besides lube for autos. Basically everything made of plastic, and countless other things. Just some FYI.
Yes, of course, everybody knows that.

And, given all the negative attention on plastics now, I don't think that's a great selling point.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

HanSolo wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:40 pm
Forester wrote: Fri Apr 16, 2021 10:10 pm Chinese stocks are seriously lagging global stocks; last two times this happened was Q4 2018 & Q1 2020. Canary in the coalmine.
Also 2Q 2010, and 3Q 2015.

Those pesky canaries... they've predicted 8 out of the last 4 bear markets.

(Not that I'm particularly bullish... just not a fan of canaries.)

I see your 2021 prediction in the Boglehead contest, 4795. The canaries would like to have a word with you.
Predicting the future is hard. But, maybe, some people are good at it. They say so, and they get paid very well.

CNN is currently running this headline: "Wall Street just showed the Reddit crowd how to really make money"
To justify the click-bait, they point out: "Global hedge funds .. saw returns of nearly 5% in the first quarter"
Take THAT you passive investor types. "On average"! "5%"! (some more, some less :-( )

My own, irrelevant addition to CNN's intrepid analysis: VTSAX Q1 up 6.43%.

Sigh. Why can't I be a hedge-fund manager?
Put out a slick brochure.
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Predicting the future is hard.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Somethingwitty92912 »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:53 am
Somethingwitty92912 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 8:56 am
Oil is used in a lot of things besides lube for autos. Basically everything made of plastic, and countless other things. Just some FYI.
Yes, of course, everybody knows that.

And, given all the negative attention on plastics now, I don't think that's a great selling point.
Eh, what are you replacing it with? ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Somethingwitty92912 wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:19 am

Eh, what are you replacing it with? ;)
Are you asking me a personal question about what we do to reduce plastic consumption in our house?

I could list, but it's pretty OT.

Regardless, betting on the future of plastics is like a 50 year old movie line now from "The Graduate".

I'd pick copper over oil if I was going to make a commodities bet in 2021.
Last edited by watchnerd on Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by LadyGeek »

Let's stay on-topic.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

An encouraging article posted by the WSJ this morning. https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-stock ... yURL_share

The first paragraph of the article says:
A greater num­ber of stocks have been pro­pelling the U.S. mar­ket higher lately, a sig­nal that—if his­tory is any in­di­ca­tor—more gains could be ahead.

The article also notes that 95% of stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, the sign of a broad rally.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Stinky wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 2:38 pm An encouraging article posted by the WSJ this morning. https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-stock ... yURL_share

The first paragraph of the article says:
A greater num­ber of stocks have been pro­pelling the U.S. mar­ket higher lately, a sig­nal that—if his­tory is any in­di­ca­tor—more gains could be ahead.

The article also notes that 95% of stocks are trading above their 200-day moving averages, the sign of a broad rally.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Noteworthy that 32% of fund managers view a bond market “taper tantrum” as the biggest tail risk. It reminds me of Jeremy Siegel's prediction:

“I think interest rates and inflation are going to rise well above what the Fed has projected. We’re going to have a strong inflationary year. I think 4% to 5%."
link

(Important to note Siegel is still bullish for reasons you can read for yourself in the article.)

Edit: Siegel reiterated the inflation prediction of 4%-5% in a Bloomberg interview, but also says we could see that level of inflation for two or three years.
Source
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Last edited by Robot Monster on Thu Apr 22, 2021 9:29 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Robot Monster wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:25 pm
Noteworthy that 32% of fund managers view a bond market “taper tantrum” as the biggest tail risk. It reminds me of Jeremy Siegel's prediction:

“I think interest rates and inflation are going to rise well above what the Fed has projected. We’re going to have a strong inflationary year. I think 4% to 5%."
link

(Important to note Siegel is still bullish for reasons you can read for yourself in the article.)
But how come these inflation concerns aren't being predicted by the breakeven inflation rate?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

HanSolo wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:41 am
I wasn't referring to social mission (as in the sense of so-called ESG investing). I was thinking of things like, for example, GE profiting from producing light bulbs, radios, jet engines, and other things that delivered benefits to society (or homebuilders building houses, or farmers growing food, etc.). On the other hand, tobacco companies profited by deliberately getting people addicted to cigarettes, with no regard to the overall effect it would have on people. My meaning was that, to a significant and increasing degree, Big Tech profits in the 21st century are coming from activities that smell more like the latter than the former (as I said, "creating addictions and selling our personal data"). I'm questioning how much more that trend can play out. Maybe a lot. Maybe not.

The fact that someone earlier in this thread would claim that profitable business "has never been about improving the quality of life" is further evidence of the growing disconnect between business profitability and delivering something positive to society. It's a phenomenon we can observe. The effect on markets going forward is an open question.
Well let’s see. Google gives you instant access to vast amounts of information that is unprecedented in human history*. Apple puts that capability in your pocket. Amazon allows you to buy almost anything from your phone and get it shipped to your house.

Do those improve quality of life and benefits to society?

Yep.

Characterizing big tech as merely creating addictions and selling personal data ignores the glaringly obvious benefits of what that technology enables.

* if you don’t think Google gives you access try finding anything without using a search engine.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheTimeLord »

Futures are disappointedly quiet this evening. Even after the past couple of weeks no meaningful pullback is yet visible on the horizon. We live in a time that demands discipline from its hunters with the ability to see the world as it is, as oppose to how they wish it to be. Greed and Fear both spin their stories whispering their half truths to those eager to listen.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Semantics »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:29 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 3:25 pm
Noteworthy that 32% of fund managers view a bond market “taper tantrum” as the biggest tail risk. It reminds me of Jeremy Siegel's prediction:

“I think interest rates and inflation are going to rise well above what the Fed has projected. We’re going to have a strong inflationary year. I think 4% to 5%."
link

(Important to note Siegel is still bullish for reasons you can read for yourself in the article.)
But how come these inflation concerns aren't being predicted by the breakeven inflation rate?
They are, if you assume inflation will fall back to "normal" after. The 5-year BE rate is 2.57%, which is about equivalent to one year of 5% followed by four years of 2%.

People are also conflating rising yields with inflation. You can have rising yields without inflation; indeed, the breakeven rate did not go up during the 2013 taper tantrum.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Semantics wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:07 pm

They are, if you assume inflation will fall back to "normal" after. The 5-year BE rate is 2.57%, which is about equivalent to one year of 5% followed by four years of 2%.
Exactly....

A short term spike is not something to worry about or adjust your portfolio over.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Asia-Pacific is soaring.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

lostdog wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:27 pm Asia-Pacific is soaring.
Indeed it is. And NASDAQ futures at least have turned green. Might be getting more of the good color tomorrow.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

watchnerd wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:23 pm
Semantics wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:07 pm

They are, if you assume inflation will fall back to "normal" after. The 5-year BE rate is 2.57%, which is about equivalent to one year of 5% followed by four years of 2%.
Exactly....

A short term spike is not something to worry about or adjust your portfolio over.
If an inflation panic does happen because of a short term spike, that could very well be a beautiful time to be rebalancing, or a buying opportunity for those chipmunks out their secretly hoarding away piles of dry powder.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

lostdog wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 10:27 pm Asia-Pacific is soaring.
MCHI (China ETF) is +0.29%, woohoo for my China tilt, but my three out of my four funny money stocks are handily beating that:
Amazon +0.86%
Google +0.80%
Disney +1.48%

In conclusion: never bet against that Disney magic. :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

nigel_ht wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 9:26 pm
HanSolo wrote: Sun Apr 18, 2021 5:41 am
I wasn't referring to social mission (as in the sense of so-called ESG investing). I was thinking of things like, for example, GE profiting from producing light bulbs, radios, jet engines, and other things that delivered benefits to society (or homebuilders building houses, or farmers growing food, etc.). On the other hand, tobacco companies profited by deliberately getting people addicted to cigarettes, with no regard to the overall effect it would have on people. My meaning was that, to a significant and increasing degree, Big Tech profits in the 21st century are coming from activities that smell more like the latter than the former (as I said, "creating addictions and selling our personal data"). I'm questioning how much more that trend can play out. Maybe a lot. Maybe not.

The fact that someone earlier in this thread would claim that profitable business "has never been about improving the quality of life" is further evidence of the growing disconnect between business profitability and delivering something positive to society. It's a phenomenon we can observe. The effect on markets going forward is an open question.
Well let’s see. Google gives you instant access to vast amounts of information that is unprecedented in human history*. Apple puts that capability in your pocket. Amazon allows you to buy almost anything from your phone and get it shipped to your house.

Do those improve quality of life and benefits to society?

Yep.

Characterizing big tech as merely creating addictions and selling personal data ignores the glaringly obvious benefits of what that technology enables.

* if you don’t think Google gives you access try finding anything without using a search engine.
I didn't say those companies don't add value to society. My point was about the degree to which they do a disservice relative to the degree that they do a service.

I'm not saying the rise of a "disservice economy" ("surveillance capitalism", "addiction economy", etc.) will kill the stock market. Tobacco companies did quite well for many years. But public acceptance of that could change, and this is a variable I haven't seen taken into account.

I'm not making any claims about whether any of the above is "right" or "wrong", or whether or not it will allow stocks to "continue to soar". I only advocate awareness.

It doesn't matter whether people agree with my perceptions, only that they keep paying attention and make up their own minds.

For more information:
"Addiction to Technology Is Killing Capitalism" (The Atlantic)
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ar ... em/606769/
"Facebook makes people less happy, study finds" (The Independent)
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 57246.html

PS: I still find it fascinating that someone earlier in this thread would claim that profitable business "has never been about improving the quality of life", thereby suggesting that your argument in favor of Google and Apple may be rendered moot. I don't think it's moot, but some people obviously do. This is another variable that may have some implication on markets.

PPS: Before Google, I used AltaVista, Lycos and MapQuest. They worked well enough for my purposes. But that's just me. Your mileage may vary.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

HanSolo wrote: Mon Apr 19, 2021 6:45 pm The fact that someone earlier in this thread would claim that profitable business "has never been about improving the quality of life" is further evidence of the growing disconnect between business profitability and delivering something positive to society.
Well, I'm sure all y'all recall that Adam Smith fella. He thought it was downright amazin that different folks, all workin' for their own personal profit, ended up makin' the world a better place... As if guided by some sort of invisible hand or some such magic.
He thought it was magic then. What's changed?
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