U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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watchnerd
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.

Grrr.

Stupid low trading volume.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.

Grrr.

Stupid low trading volume.
Market timer! Gotta take what the markets give you.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:24 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.

Grrr.

Stupid low trading volume.
Market timer! Gotta take what the markets give you.
I'm not going to place a market order when my order is 50% of the trading volume... ;)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:46 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:24 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.

Grrr.

Stupid low trading volume.
Market timer! Gotta take what the markets give you.
I'm not going to place a market order when my order is 50% of the trading volume... ;)
Huh, that's interesting. I remember some posters here having so much confidence that the Authorized Participants would come rescue because they're just some program somewhere making countertrades.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by luckyducky99 »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:46 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:24 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.

Grrr.

Stupid low trading volume.
Market timer! Gotta take what the markets give you.
I'm not going to place a market order when my order is 50% of the trading volume... ;)
I had an "oh my" moment the first time I traded something with thin liquidity and saw my own order show up in the day's price graph. Live and learn.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

luckyducky99 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:52 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:46 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:24 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.

Grrr.

Stupid low trading volume.
Market timer! Gotta take what the markets give you.
I'm not going to place a market order when my order is 50% of the trading volume... ;)
I had an "oh my" moment the first time I traded something with thin liquidity and saw my own order show up in the day's price graph. Live and learn.
Happened to me today, although at my limit price.

And my order was only partially (56%) filled.

But it went up beyond what I paid, so I guess I was the cheap bastich holding the price down.
Last edited by watchnerd on Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

VTI soared today. +0.03%!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:48 pm Huh, that's interesting. I remember some posters here having so much confidence that the Authorized Participants would come rescue because they're just some program somewhere making countertrades.
If 'come to the rescue' means 'sell it to you higher than the current Ask', yes, I agree.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Alaric »

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:02 pm VTI soared today. +0.03%!
0.03% is all it needs to average to return 7.85% annually. :happy
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:02 pm VTI soared today. +0.03%!
Interesting.

The mutual fund version of VTI, VTSAX, was -0.02% on the day.

And, of course, I own VTSAX. :oops:
Last edited by Stinky on Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Alaric wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:36 pm
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:02 pm VTI soared today. +0.03%!
0.03% is all it needs to average to return 7.85% annually. :happy
Really goes to show how every little bit of green goes towards building a big 'ol tasty salad! :moneybag
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by luckyducky99 »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:48 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:46 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:24 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.

Grrr.

Stupid low trading volume.
Market timer! Gotta take what the markets give you.
I'm not going to place a market order when my order is 50% of the trading volume... ;)
Huh, that's interesting. I remember some posters here having so much confidence that the Authorized Participants would come rescue because they're just some program somewhere making countertrades.
Assuming an ETF, APs make their money by arbitraging the NAV. If a thinly traded ETF is at a discount to NAV there might not be any easy money to be made by selling to him.

I have often wondered how bothersome (or not) the share creation/redemption process is for those that actually act as APs.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Cheez-It Guy »

Stinky wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:45 pm
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:02 pm VTI soared today. +0.03%!
Interesting.

The mutual fund version of VTI, VTSAX, was -0.02% on the day.

And, of course, I own VTSAX. :oops:
Hah! Me too. . .
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

luckyducky99 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:50 pm Assuming an ETF, APs make their money by arbitraging the NAV. If a thinly traded ETF is at a discount to NAV there might not be any easy money to be made by selling to him.

I have often wondered how bothersome (or not) the share creation/redemption process is for those that actually act as APs.
If the price is below the NAV, watchnerd actually makes money by simply buying with a market order. APs step in when the price is above the NAV; that's where they sell higher and buy back lower from the issuer.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by euphonious »

Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:52 pm
Stinky wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:45 pm
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:02 pm VTI soared today. +0.03%!
Interesting.

The mutual fund version of VTI, VTSAX, was -0.02% on the day.

And, of course, I own VTSAX. :oops:
Hah! Me too. . .
If it makes you feel any better, that 0.05% difference spread out over a year is only 0.00014%, which is basically nothing compared to the 0.01% difference in expense ratios. :)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by luckyducky99 »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:56 pm
luckyducky99 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:50 pm Assuming an ETF, APs make their money by arbitraging the NAV. If a thinly traded ETF is at a discount to NAV there might not be any easy money to be made by selling to him.

I have often wondered how bothersome (or not) the share creation/redemption process is for those that actually act as APs.
If the price is below the NAV, watchnerd actually makes money by simply buying with a market order. APs step in when the price is above the NAV; that's where they sell higher and buy back lower from the issuer.
If you buy below the NAV that's good for you if the ETF later trades up to the NAV. But the underlying assets could also trade down towards the ETF price. Either could happen, e.g. sometimes ETF prices for international funds move down while international markets are closed in anticipation of the underlying going down once they open.
Last edited by luckyducky99 on Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

luckyducky99 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:50 pm
Assuming an ETF, APs make their money by arbitraging the NAV. If a thinly traded ETF is at a discount to NAV there might not be any easy money to be made by selling to him.

I have often wondered how bothersome (or not) the share creation/redemption process is for those that actually act as APs.
Yes, it's an ETF.

From last Friday's data, the NAV was at a 0.11% premium to market price.

But it's not a stock ETF.

SIG is the market maker.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

luckyducky99 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 6:18 pm
If you buy below the NAV that's good for you if the ETF later trades up to the NAV. But the underlying assets could also trade down towards the ETF price. Either could happen, e.g. sometimes ETF prices for international funds move down while international markets are closed in anticipation of the underlying going down once they open.
I bought below last Friday's NAV.

I can't tell yet if I bought below today's NAV.

The market price closed above what I paid.

I had an order for 3000 @ 25.52.

1590 got filled, but I'm not seeing anything that matches it exactly in the chart:

https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/USDU#ey ... J0In19fX0-

This position is going to take a while because I need 12k shares total, which is more than the daily volume on slow days.
Last edited by watchnerd on Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:56 pm
luckyducky99 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:50 pm Assuming an ETF, APs make their money by arbitraging the NAV. If a thinly traded ETF is at a discount to NAV there might not be any easy money to be made by selling to him.

I have often wondered how bothersome (or not) the share creation/redemption process is for those that actually act as APs.
If the price is below the NAV, watchnerd actually makes money by simply buying with a market order. APs step in when the price is above the NAV; that's where they sell higher and buy back lower from the issuer.
As of last Friday's data, the market price was $.03 premium to NAV:

https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/currency/usdu#
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:13 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:56 pm
luckyducky99 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:50 pm Assuming an ETF, APs make their money by arbitraging the NAV. If a thinly traded ETF is at a discount to NAV there might not be any easy money to be made by selling to him.

I have often wondered how bothersome (or not) the share creation/redemption process is for those that actually act as APs.
If the price is below the NAV, watchnerd actually makes money by simply buying with a market order. APs step in when the price is above the NAV; that's where they sell higher and buy back lower from the issuer.
As of last Friday's data, the market price was $.03 premium to NAV:

https://www.wisdomtree.com/etfs/currency/usdu#
Sounds fine. You can place market orders with confidence. The APs got your back. Worst comes worst, 40x becomes 39x.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:16 pm
Sounds fine. You can place market orders with confidence. The APs got your back. Worst comes worst, 40x becomes 39x.
But I want more shares cheaper....

It takes the fun out of it, otherwise.

I don't get this kind of entertainment value out of big ETFs like VT.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:20 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:16 pm
Sounds fine. You can place market orders with confidence. The APs got your back. Worst comes worst, 40x becomes 39x.
But I want more shares cheaper....

It takes the fun out of it, otherwise.

I don't get this kind of entertainment value out of big ETFs like VT.
Whoa, yeah this is very illiquid. Personally I wouldn't touch it with a ten-foot pole. Huge hassle on buying as well as selling, and a possibility of ETF closure.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Stinky wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:45 pm
Cheez-It Guy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 5:02 pm VTI soared today. +0.03%!
Interesting.

The mutual fund version of VTI, VTSAX, was -0.02% on the day.

And, of course, I own VTSAX. :oops:
You can always convert to the ETF tax free. But it can go the other direction too.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Money Flow Index is close to overbought for QQQ and VOO. IWM is still below 50. Got my last purchases in while both QQQ and VOO were hovering around 50. Going to continue to put all of my 401k into VOO equivalent available to me. Going to wait for the money flow index to get back down near 50 before adding more to QQQ and VOO in taxable. I might pay down my mortgage some more this month.

Returns are looking good for this year.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:24 pm and a possibility of ETF closure.
That would be interesting to see what would happen in that case.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.
Why didn't you use a market order?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:53 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.
Why didn't you use a market order?
See upthread
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by UpperNwGuy »

watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:04 pm
UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:53 pm
watchnerd wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 3:06 pm Bah, I couldn't get my full limit order filled.

Even though I was offering the closing price.
Why didn't you use a market order?
See upthread
Because it would take the fun out of it?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

UpperNwGuy wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:09 pm

Because it would take the fun out of it?
All of the things discussed above.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

NASDAQ and my favorite fruit company are doing some right proper soaring this morning. :sharebeer :moneybag

You guys with VOO and SPY -- not so much. :(
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:52 am NASDAQ and my favorite fruit company are doing some right proper soaring this morning. :sharebeer :moneybag

You guys with VOO and SPY -- not so much. :(
VOO is up 0.11%. That's an annualized return of around 27%!

Edit: And if we assume 0.11% per half hour of trading, that's about an annualized return of more than 400%!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

Mega corp stock going up too much, increasing past its target AA.

But have to wait until July to sell next tranche of ESPP for best tax treatment....
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:02 am
...VOO is up 0.11%. That's an annualized return of around 27%!

Edit: And if we assume 0.11% per half hour of trading, that's about an annualized return of more than 400%!
I get 596%, but my HP 11C is older than most of the people on this board. :D
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:13 am Mega corp stock going up too much, increasing past its target AA.

But have to wait until July to sell next tranche of ESPP for best tax treatment....
Sounds like a luxury problem to me...
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

Nice to see that the soaring has returned. Nobody here do anything funny! :x
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:52 am NASDAQ and my favorite fruit company are doing some right proper soaring this morning. :sharebeer :moneybag

You guys with VOO and SPY -- not so much. :(
"Market bull Jeremy Siegel warns the Nasdaq rebound will unravel, favors value stocks" published 3-9-21 link

Today, at the moment at least:
QQQ +0.67%
VTV -0.42%

Will return to this post to see how things play out.

Edit: Also notice a Bloomberg article from today, "JPMorgan Chief Strategist Says Markets May Be at Long-Term Turning Point--Value shares may be set to outperform growth ones for a significant period, strategist Marko Kolanovic says." link The word "may" is an awfully weak word, if you think about it, though. Scarlett Johansson may join me for tea and crumpets later this afternoon. Never said it was likely.
Last edited by Robot Monster on Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:13 am Mega corp stock going up too much, increasing past its target AA.

But have to wait until July to sell next tranche of ESPP for best tax treatment....
Don't let the tax tail wag the dog.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:30 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:13 am Mega corp stock going up too much, increasing past its target AA.

But have to wait until July to sell next tranche of ESPP for best tax treatment....
Don't let the tax tail wag the dog.
Another thought -

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:30 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:13 am Mega corp stock going up too much, increasing past its target AA.

But have to wait until July to sell next tranche of ESPP for best tax treatment....
Don't let the tax tail wag the dog.
Why not?

If the price stays the same*, change of disposition qualification is a guaranteed profit vs selling now.

*(we know it won't, but I'm not going to introduce price speculation / market timing into the equation)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:05 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:30 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:13 am Mega corp stock going up too much, increasing past its target AA.

But have to wait until July to sell next tranche of ESPP for best tax treatment....
Don't let the tax tail wag the dog.
Why not?

If the price stays the same, change of disposition qualification is a guaranteed profit vs selling now.
Pretty big if there.

The odds of the price being the same is almost zero. It could be higher, it could be lower. But the odds of it being exactly the same next July is pretty low.

Heh, you edited your post while I was posting the above.

Possible price change is, of course, material to the financial decision.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:07 pm
watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:05 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:30 am
watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:13 am Mega corp stock going up too much, increasing past its target AA.

But have to wait until July to sell next tranche of ESPP for best tax treatment....
Don't let the tax tail wag the dog.
Why not?

If the price stays the same, change of disposition qualification is a guaranteed profit vs selling now.
Pretty big if there.

The odds of the price being the same is almost zero. It could be higher, it could be lower. But the odds of it being exactly the same next July is pretty low.

Heh, you edited your post while I was posting the above.

Possible price change is, of course, material to the financial decision.
It's not next July.

It's this July for this next tranche.

Every 3 months there is a new tranche, so ones coming up in October, then January, etc,
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by watchnerd »

HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:07 pm
Possible price change is, of course, material to the financial decision.
Price change is unknowable.

I have ESPP stock with status changes extending 2 years into the future, on a rolling basis.

If I were to sell them all now in an effort to preserve current price:

1. I'd pay short term cap gains on any of them held less than a year
2. The ESPP discount (10%) gets taxed as ordinary income, which in my case, is in the 35% bracket.

Yeah, the market could go down, but if the market goes down, I take a hit to my stock holdings no matter what.

And if megacorp stock goes down more than the general market, then my concentrated risk gets reduced back to its target allocation, or below, anyway.
Global stocks, IG/HY bonds, gold & digital assets at market weights 75% / 19% / 6% || LMP: TIPS ladder
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

watchnerd wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:25 pm
HomerJ wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 12:07 pm
Possible price change is, of course, material to the financial decision.
Price change is unknowable.

I have ESPP stock with status changes extending 2 years into the future, on a rolling basis.

If I were to sell them all now in an effort to preserve current price:

1. I'd pay short term cap gains on any of them held less than a year
2. The ESPP discount (10%) gets taxed as ordinary income, which in my case, is in the 35% bracket.

Yeah, the market could go down, but if the market goes down, I take a hit to my stock holdings no matter what.

And if megacorp stock goes down more than the general market, then my concentrated risk gets reduced back to its target allocation, or below, anyway.
I always sell my ESPP stock the day after I get it.

I get it 15% below the cost, I pay 33% or so of that 15% gain in taxes.

It's 10% free money.

If I wait 2 years, I might get more, I might get less. Who knows what the market will do.

I take 10% guaranteed free money and don't worry about trying to avoid taxes. I could end up with less money trying to save money (or more).

But that's just me. :)
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:36 pm Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
Late afternoon mini-melt-up in progress. S&P is up about 10 points in the last 90 minutes. New ATH level, of course.

Boglehead Nation wants you to go to the gym, and stay there. At least until after 4pm ET. Do it every day, please. :D
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:36 pm Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
Thanks for going to the gym. The melt up has started. :sharebeer
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

What a great day, whoah!
pasadena
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

Today's shaping up to be a great day for my fun money account 8-)
rchmx1
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rchmx1 »

lostdog wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 1:36 pm Heading to the gym. We'll see if we have a melt up coming.
If we hadn't returned to soaring today I was gonna call you out for being lazy this week haha
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