U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

jason2459 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:10 pm It's not going to happen till you get a certain someone say it's not going to happen.
It's...going to happen.

Let's see if my contrarian indicator works.
Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

jason2459 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:10 pm It's not going to happen till you get a certain someone say it's not going to happen.

He already did. :D

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=80065&p=5900486#p5900486

“ Mission Impossible 7: S&P 500 @ 4,000”
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

jason2459 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:10 pm It's not going to happen till you get a certain someone say it's not going to happen.
From the archives. 3/23/21. All of 8 days ago.
Forester wrote: Tue Mar 23, 2021 6:20 pm Mission Impossible 7: S&P 500 @ 4,000
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jason2459
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Perfect, we're all set then.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

A taper scare for a bit.
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Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:41 pm A taper scare for a bit.
Looks like the taper continues.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Vtsax100 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:42 pm
lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:41 pm A taper scare for a bit.
Looks like the taper continues.
Those darn traders taking profits... :twisted:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

slowly the air is getting released from the balloon.
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Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

Do I see a melt up trying to start?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:48 pm slowly the air is getting released from the balloon.
Run it up, lock in quarterly profits, and start fresh tomorrow.

I think, we need a thread about when to withdraw money for retirement. Some months seem better than others. Last year ended up nearly 20%, but if you took your RMDs in March, it cost ya.
Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Forester and I are still safe!

viewtopic.php?p=5884917#p5884917
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

I put a chunk of DW's VTI up for sell @ $208.50. Might get it today, tomorrow. If not, maybe later.

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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Down it goes.
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Ajcorpus
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Ajcorpus »

lostdog wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:48 pm slowly the air is getting released from the balloon.
Ahh that was disappointing, here’s to an even better day tomorrow !
Vtsax100
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

Triple digit golfer wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:56 pm Forester and I are still safe!

viewtopic.php?p=5884917#p5884917

For now...
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Whoa, a huge dip into the close. Well, still up on the day.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by firebirdparts »

Tomorrow is a rebalance day, yes? Interesting.
This time is the same
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Yesterdaysnews
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Yesterdaysnews »

A great month despite all the drama !
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Scott S
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Scott S »

Aw man! I was so sure we'd soar to 4000 today.
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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

It'll be interesting how the markets digest Mr. Biden's infrastructure plans, just unveiled today.
jmch1990
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jmch1990 »

inbox788 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:41 am
jmch1990 wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:02 pmAssuming the average 10% growth each year, in 96 months (8 years) the S&P would be around 8,400. (Past performance does not equal future, et al.)
I don't think anyone is using 10% annual market growth, nominal or otherwise for this longer term. And what kind of GDP growth do we need to get that? GDP vs market, which is the tail wagging the dog?

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... ct-gdp.asp

This permabull is going to be remembered for making the right call on the recovery, but so far no 10% correction. Fingers crossed.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fundstr ... ish-2014-9
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029903760

We're supposed to see 3500 before reaching 4300. Don't think we'll cross 4000 that soon if that's the path.
Vtsax100 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:39 am Lets get this party started. Is S&P 500 going to 4000 today? Its almost there!
Not saying we should or we shouldn't. I don't know if 10% annual growth is upcoming and neither does anyone else. Just noting that an S&P in the 8,000s in 10 years shouldn't be seen as a "surge" as much as it is a continuation of the average growth the S&P has had for the past ~90 years.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

jmch1990 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:31 pm
inbox788 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:41 am
jmch1990 wrote: Tue Mar 30, 2021 2:02 pmAssuming the average 10% growth each year, in 96 months (8 years) the S&P would be around 8,400. (Past performance does not equal future, et al.)
I don't think anyone is using 10% annual market growth, nominal or otherwise for this longer term. And what kind of GDP growth do we need to get that? GDP vs market, which is the tail wagging the dog?

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... ct-gdp.asp

This permabull is going to be remembered for making the right call on the recovery, but so far no 10% correction. Fingers crossed.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fundstr ... ish-2014-9
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029903760

We're supposed to see 3500 before reaching 4300. Don't think we'll cross 4000 that soon if that's the path.
Vtsax100 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:39 am Lets get this party started. Is S&P 500 going to 4000 today? Its almost there!
Not saying we should or we shouldn't. I don't know if 10% annual growth is upcoming and neither does anyone else. Just noting that an S&P in the 8,000s in 10 years shouldn't be seen as a "surge" as much as it is a continuation of the average growth the S&P has had for the past ~90 years.
Exactly. We may not get 10% a year for the next 8 years, but it certainly isn't some crazy out-of-the-world prediction. They just said we might get the historical average.

Edit: Oh wait, they are saying PRICE alone will grow at 10% a year... With dividends at 1.5%, that means they are predicting 11.5% a year for the next 8 years... Still possible, still not crazy.. but indeed higher than average historical.
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inbox788
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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jmch1990 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:31 pmNot saying we should or we shouldn't. I don't know if 10% annual growth is upcoming and neither does anyone else. Just noting that an S&P in the 8,000s in 10 years shouldn't be seen as a "surge" as much as it is a continuation of the average growth the S&P has had for the past ~90 years.
Agree, and if it does get there, I wouldn't complain, but I'd definitely worry (kind of like now, but amplified more). And I'll be taking more off the table than I already am now. We'd all need to take some off just to rebalance, especially if interest rates and bond returns remain low. In the end, it's just a number, but it reflects a lot of information about the companies, the economy and future expectations.

What does it mean for a company to double it's stock price or market cap? Is it a doubling of sales? Doubling of margins? PE expansion? Figure growth? I can't envision doubling my purchases at Amazon or Costco, so others will have to double theirs and carry my extra weight to getting there. But seems like there are folks willing to take up the challenge.

High spenders what do you spend on?
viewtopic.php?p=5911704#p5911704
HomerJ wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:56 pmExactly. We may not get 10% a year for the next 8 years, but it certainly isn't some crazy out-of-the-world prediction. They just said we might get the historical average.

Edit: Oh wait, they are saying PRICE alone will grow at 10% a year... With dividends at 1.5%, that means they are predicting 11.5% a year for the next 8 years... Still possible, still not crazy.. but indeed higher than average historical.
We spend the last decade making up for the lost decade, so it can be done, but can we continue back at the historic pace? Not sure 50/50 applies to average here, but we will or we won't, but have to stay tuned to find out.
Last edited by inbox788 on Wed Mar 31, 2021 8:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Beensabu
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Beensabu »

minimalistmarc wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:29 am You should speak to Mr Hussman he’s been saying the same thing for decades 🤣
He's so much fun to read! I learned about favorable and unfavorable trend uniformity today thanks to you :)
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bog007 »

up a fifth
Don’t let anyone else ruin your portfolio. It’s your portfolio. Ruin it yourself!!!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by bog007 »

omg dow up 2000 points on new zillion dollar stimulus????!!!
Don’t let anyone else ruin your portfolio. It’s your portfolio. Ruin it yourself!!!
Ajcorpus
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Ajcorpus »

bog007 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 3:12 am omg dow up 2000 points on new zillion dollar stimulus????!!!

I sure would like to see a day like that .........
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Stinky
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Post by Stinky »

Scott S wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:19 pm Aw man! I was so sure we'd soar to 4000 today.
You only missed by one day.

S&P 4000!!
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lostdog
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Post by lostdog »

Soaring day today.

Please no taper this afternoon. :beer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

4000!
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ImUrHuckleberry
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by ImUrHuckleberry »

Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:31 am
Scott S wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:19 pm Aw man! I was so sure we'd soar to 4000 today.
You only missed by one day.

S&P 4000!!
Forester please tell us how 5000 won't come for another 20 years!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Is there a Forester 4000 quote?
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Scott S »

Stinky wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:31 am
Scott S wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:19 pmAw man! I was so sure we'd soar to 4000 today.
You only missed by one day.

S&P 4000!!
Woo-hoo! :sharebeer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Vtsax100 »

lostdog wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:35 am Is there a Forester 4000 quote?
Yes. Little over a week ago Forester described S&P 500 at 4000 as Mission Impossible 7. Stand by for a new and final prediction from Forester.

:sharebeer
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Post by Visitor76 »

Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:45 am
lostdog wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:35 am Is there a Forester 4000 quote?
Yes. Little over a week ago Forester described S&P 500 at 4000 as Mission Impossible 7. Stand by for a new and final prediction from Forester.

:sharebeer
And where is our "Lost Decade" guy? :wink:
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lusoman »

Historic.

Imagine this in March 2020.
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Yesterdaysnews
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Wow... the market has left me speechless
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Post by atdharris »

What a run. I just checked the lot of VTI I bought after TLH on 3/23/2020 and it's up 90%.
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Yesterdaysnews
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I took a little VTI off the top on November 1st and I’d have 30k gains since then on that position had I just held it 😩

It’s unbelievable and an expensive lesson learned
Last edited by Yesterdaysnews on Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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TheTimeLord
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Post by TheTimeLord »

Over the past couple of weeks the term "Global Synchronized Growth" has started to pop up with more frequency. I suspect it could be the dominant theme by summer.
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TheTimeLord
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Yesterdaysnews wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:03 am I took a little VTI off the top on November 1st and I’d have 30k gains since then on that position had I just held it 😩

It’s unbelievable and an expensive lesson learned
You sold on a Sunday?
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Triple digit golfer
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Yesterdaysnews wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:03 am I took a little VTI off the top on November 1st and I’d have 30k gains since then on that position had I just held it 😩

It’s unbelievable and an expensive lesson learned
Was it a rebalance or did you actually reduce your target stock allocation because you felt the market was "high?"

If the former, good job. You are maintaining your AA and not worrying about the market.

If the latter, shame on you. Bad Boglehead. Bad!
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TheTimeLord
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Triple digit golfer wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:10 am
Yesterdaysnews wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:03 am I took a little VTI off the top on November 1st and I’d have 30k gains since then on that position had I just held it 😩

It’s unbelievable and an expensive lesson learned
Was it a rebalance or did you actually reduce your target stock allocation because you felt the market was "high?"

If the former, good job. You are maintaining your AA and not worrying about the market.

If the latter, shame on you. Bad Boglehead. Bad!
Actually, the end of October, beginning of November was the bottom of a pullback from 3,534 on October 12th to 3,269 on October 30.
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Post by rchmx1 »

SO. MUCH. GREEN. :o :mrgreen: :moneybag
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Visitor76 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:53 am
Vtsax100 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:45 am
lostdog wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 8:35 am Is there a Forester 4000 quote?
Yes. Little over a week ago Forester described S&P 500 at 4000 as Mission Impossible 7. Stand by for a new and final prediction from Forester.

:sharebeer
And where is our "Lost Decade" guy? :wink:
They'll show up when there is a massive down day.

We'll start seeing some more bubble threads soon.
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Post by Corsair »

S&P 4000 and over 18 million American getting government jobless benefits. God Bless the USA
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Aaand...it'sgone
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Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

Yay! My new Fidelity taxable account has officially turned green (I lump summed my GME profits at a previous peak in Feb).
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by willthrill81 »

I wonder how much of the recent runup in stocks is due to the market's expectation for higher inflation. The 10 year breakeven inflation rate on TIPS, generally viewed as one of the best estimates of forward inflation, is currently 2.37%, the highest it's been since 2013, and definitely trending upward.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Broken Man 1999 »

Broken Man 1999 wrote: Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:56 pm I put a chunk of DW's VTI up for sell @ $208.50. Might get it today, tomorrow. If not, maybe later.

Broken Man 1999
Sold!

These ever-increasing index numbers do create some anxiety for some, but if one is maintaining their AA, they should have plenty of opportunities to rebalance into bonds/bond funds. And, should equities decline, plenty of bond/bond fund $$$ to rebalance, assuming they rebalanced out of equities into bonds/bond funds.

I'm OK with portfolio reaching all-time highs, bubble or not, especially with the bond portion $$$ increasing right along with the equity portion, via rebalancing.

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Post by Aaand...it'sgone »

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:34 am I wonder how much of the recent runup in stocks is due to the market's expectation for higher inflation. The 10 year breakeven inflation rate on TIPS, generally viewed as one of the best estimates of forward inflation, is currently 2.37%, the highest it's been since 2013, and definitely trending upward.
I have some of my 'fun money' in a couple commodity/materials ETFs (VAW, for example).. they have been doing well the last few months. Maybe this will be one of those periods where commodities outperforms for a few years.
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