It's...going to happen.
Let's see if my contrarian indicator works.
From the archives. 3/23/21. All of 8 days ago.
Those darn traders taking profits...
Run it up, lock in quarterly profits, and start fresh tomorrow.
Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:56 pm Forester and I are still safe!
viewtopic.php?p=5884917#p5884917
Not saying we should or we shouldn't. I don't know if 10% annual growth is upcoming and neither does anyone else. Just noting that an S&P in the 8,000s in 10 years shouldn't be seen as a "surge" as much as it is a continuation of the average growth the S&P has had for the past ~90 years.inbox788 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:41 amI don't think anyone is using 10% annual market growth, nominal or otherwise for this longer term. And what kind of GDP growth do we need to get that? GDP vs market, which is the tail wagging the dog?
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... ct-gdp.asp
This permabull is going to be remembered for making the right call on the recovery, but so far no 10% correction. Fingers crossed.
https://www.businessinsider.com/fundstr ... ish-2014-9
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029903760
We're supposed to see 3500 before reaching 4300. Don't think we'll cross 4000 that soon if that's the path.
Exactly. We may not get 10% a year for the next 8 years, but it certainly isn't some crazy out-of-the-world prediction. They just said we might get the historical average.jmch1990 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:31 pmNot saying we should or we shouldn't. I don't know if 10% annual growth is upcoming and neither does anyone else. Just noting that an S&P in the 8,000s in 10 years shouldn't be seen as a "surge" as much as it is a continuation of the average growth the S&P has had for the past ~90 years.inbox788 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 11:41 amI don't think anyone is using 10% annual market growth, nominal or otherwise for this longer term. And what kind of GDP growth do we need to get that? GDP vs market, which is the tail wagging the dog?
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answer ... ct-gdp.asp
This permabull is going to be remembered for making the right call on the recovery, but so far no 10% correction. Fingers crossed.
https://www.businessinsider.com/fundstr ... ish-2014-9
https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029903760
We're supposed to see 3500 before reaching 4300. Don't think we'll cross 4000 that soon if that's the path.
Agree, and if it does get there, I wouldn't complain, but I'd definitely worry (kind of like now, but amplified more). And I'll be taking more off the table than I already am now. We'd all need to take some off just to rebalance, especially if interest rates and bond returns remain low. In the end, it's just a number, but it reflects a lot of information about the companies, the economy and future expectations.jmch1990 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:31 pmNot saying we should or we shouldn't. I don't know if 10% annual growth is upcoming and neither does anyone else. Just noting that an S&P in the 8,000s in 10 years shouldn't be seen as a "surge" as much as it is a continuation of the average growth the S&P has had for the past ~90 years.
We spend the last decade making up for the lost decade, so it can be done, but can we continue back at the historic pace? Not sure 50/50 applies to average here, but we will or we won't, but have to stay tuned to find out.HomerJ wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 7:56 pmExactly. We may not get 10% a year for the next 8 years, but it certainly isn't some crazy out-of-the-world prediction. They just said we might get the historical average.
Edit: Oh wait, they are saying PRICE alone will grow at 10% a year... With dividends at 1.5%, that means they are predicting 11.5% a year for the next 8 years... Still possible, still not crazy.. but indeed higher than average historical.
He's so much fun to read! I learned about favorable and unfavorable trend uniformity today thanks to youminimalistmarc wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 3:29 am You should speak to Mr Hussman he’s been saying the same thing for decades
You only missed by one day.
Woo-hoo!
And where is our "Lost Decade" guy?
You sold on a Sunday?Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:03 am I took a little VTI off the top on November 1st and I’d have 30k gains since then on that position had I just held it
It’s unbelievable and an expensive lesson learned
Was it a rebalance or did you actually reduce your target stock allocation because you felt the market was "high?"Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:03 am I took a little VTI off the top on November 1st and I’d have 30k gains since then on that position had I just held it
It’s unbelievable and an expensive lesson learned
Actually, the end of October, beginning of November was the bottom of a pullback from 3,534 on October 12th to 3,269 on October 30.Triple digit golfer wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:10 amWas it a rebalance or did you actually reduce your target stock allocation because you felt the market was "high?"Yesterdaysnews wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:03 am I took a little VTI off the top on November 1st and I’d have 30k gains since then on that position had I just held it
It’s unbelievable and an expensive lesson learned
If the former, good job. You are maintaining your AA and not worrying about the market.
If the latter, shame on you. Bad Boglehead. Bad!
They'll show up when there is a massive down day.
Sold!Broken Man 1999 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 31, 2021 2:56 pm I put a chunk of DW's VTI up for sell @ $208.50. Might get it today, tomorrow. If not, maybe later.
Broken Man 1999
I have some of my 'fun money' in a couple commodity/materials ETFs (VAW, for example).. they have been doing well the last few months. Maybe this will be one of those periods where commodities outperforms for a few years.willthrill81 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 01, 2021 9:34 am I wonder how much of the recent runup in stocks is due to the market's expectation for higher inflation. The 10 year breakeven inflation rate on TIPS, generally viewed as one of the best estimates of forward inflation, is currently 2.37%, the highest it's been since 2013, and definitely trending upward.