Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

[racy]

Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory.
Quoting him, "The market is registering a major peak right now, Prechter said -- which means the economy may be entering a bear market similar to that in 1929 and 1966, both years that included major market crashes. Prechter declined to speculate at what rate he thought the S&P would fall but suggested it would be higher than 20%. "http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... chter.html
Thoughts?

[Tycoon]

The Elliott Wave, a classic for sure.

[Levett]

Years ago Barron's referred to it as the "idiot Wave."

Lev

[minimalistmarc]

Pretcher has been saying the exact same thing for years. Not actionable.

[WhyNotUs]

Elliot Wave predicts 50 out of every 5 recessions.

[onthecusp]

I don't know.

Really, I don't know, so I'll maintain my AA targets.

Elliot waves seem pretty obvious, until they miss a prediction, then you get to reinterpret the previous waves in light of the current bigger waves. People miss predictions with them all the time. Market timing.

[Crimsontide]

Might as well throw chicken bones... what a crock.

[bottlecap]

So?

It's financial porn, but somehow this is financial porn we should take seriously?

JT

[david1082b]

Mr Prechter, what a legend:

Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016

Published: June 17, 2010

"The only way for the developing configuration to satisfy a perfect set of Fibonacci time relationships is for the stock market to fall over the next six years and bottom in 2016."

"This bear market is of Supercycle degree, the biggest since 1720-1784. It should therefore include a decline deeper that the 89% decline of 1929-1932. A decline of 91.5% or more would carry it below 1,000."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ellio ... 2010-06-17

At least he can count I guess.

[Beat The Street]

Mr Prechter, what a legend:

Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016

Published: June 17, 2010

"The only way for the developing configuration to satisfy a perfect set of Fibonacci time relationships is for the stock market to fall over the next six years and bottom in 2016."

"This bear market is of Supercycle degree, the biggest since 1720-1784. It should therefore include a decline deeper that the 89% decline of 1929-1932. A decline of 91.5% or more would carry it below 1,000."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ellio ... 2010-06-17

At least he can count I guess.

In 1720 Prechter was just finishing up grad school. Elliott Wave, Dow Theory, Death Cross, Head and Shoulders formation, all garbage.

[livesoft]

My thoughts: This thread should be deleted. Anybody can model the past chart of any stock market with enough Fourier terms. Just because you don't know math is no reason to believe that mathematicians are magicians. I suppose though that Fake News is the Law of the Land nowadays.

[BolderBoy]

Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory... Thoughts?

As a special favor to you, I will tonight gut an owl and read its entrails. You'll know by tomorrow what I found out about the future.

[Phineas J. Whoopee]

Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory.
Quoting him, "The market is registering a major peak right now, Prechter said -- which means the economy may be entering a bear market similar to that in 1929 and 1966, both years that included major market crashes. Prechter declined to speculate at what rate he thought the S&P would fall but suggested it would be higher than 20%. "http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... chter.html
Thoughts?

My thought is, given what I underlined, he's not predicting anything, which is smart for him because that way he can't be wrong.

PJW

[westrichj312]

if you believe in the wave you might as well believe in the little green man coming down from space!

[ryman554]

Come on guys, lets give the OP a break.

There is a reason that investment banks are spending so much on quants and research into chaos theory to predict future results. There has to be some there there in mathematical investing.

<tinfoil hat> But the good stuff is not going to be revealed by a guy who's going to talking to Neil Cavuto, unless he's a whistleblower talking about a sinister plot by the big banks to rig a huge downturn so they can swoop in like Mr. Potter and buy it all up at discount prices.... </tinfoil hat>

Anybody who knows anything ain't saying it. Anybody who says it just wants to get rich/famous but doesn't know squat.

[skepticalobserver]

Prechter for does have staying power. I was reading about the Wave in Futures magazine in 1980's. Has anybody turned a dime on this stuff (other than Bob)?

[Raymond]

Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory... Thoughts?

As a special favor to you, I will tonight gut an owl and read its entrails. You'll know by tomorrow what I found out about the future.

Please, not an owl! I like them, and they are cool birds.

Now a pigeon? Gut as many of those pooping airborne rats as you want

Better yet, just use live chickens, hurl pieces of cake at them and see what they do - worked pretty well for the Romans.

Maybe we should throw cake at Mr. Cavuto and his guests? If they gobble it up, then all will be well.

[technovelist]

"There's one born every minute." -- Attributed to P. T. Barnum.

[alpenglow]

Years ago Barron's referred to it as the "idiot Wave."

Nice.

[Steelersfan]

Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory... Thoughts?

As a special favor to you, I will tonight gut an owl and read its entrails. You'll know by tomorrow what I found out about the future.

Please, not an owl! I like them, and they are cool birds.

Now a pigeon? Gut as many of those pooping airborne rats as you want

Better yet, just use live chickens, hurl pieces of cake at them and see what they do - worked pretty well for the Romans.

Maybe we should throw cake at Mr. Cavuto and his guests? If they gobble it up, then all will be well.

My favorite posts of the day, right there. Thanks for the grins.

[HomerJ]

Prechter for does have staying power. I was reading about the Wave in Futures magazine in 1980's. Has anybody turned a dime on this stuff (other than Bob)?

How many times can someone make a wrong prediction and still get invited onto T.V. and taken seriously?

[jmndu99]

Great as I'm in the accumulation phase and need to buy at firesale prices.

[racy]

My thoughts: This thread should be deleted. Anybody can model the past chart of any stock market with enough Fourier terms. Just because you don't know math is no reason to believe that mathematicians are magicians. I suppose though that Fake News is the Law of the Land nowadays.

Oh, come on. Join in the fun!
And, for those not familiar with Fourier terms (like me), I Googled a definition from Wikipedia and copied it here:
"In mathematics, a Fourier series is a way to represent a (wave-like) function as the sum of simple sine waves. More formally, it decomposes any periodic function or periodic signal into the sum of a (possibly infinite) set of simple oscillating functions, namely sines and cosines (or, equivalently, complex exponentials)."

[minesweep]

Even a broken clock is right twice.....

[racy]

An evaluation and ranking of 68 market forecasters was conducted in May of this year. Spoiler alert! Prechter ranked last!

See page 19.
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.ph ... 78&EXT=pdf