Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

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racy
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Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by racy »

Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory.
Quoting him, "The market is registering a major peak right now, Prechter said -- which means the economy may be entering a bear market similar to that in 1929 and 1966, both years that included major market crashes. Prechter declined to speculate at what rate he thought the S&P would fall but suggested it would be higher than 20%. "http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... chter.html
Thoughts?
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Tycoon
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by Tycoon »

The Elliott Wave, a classic for sure.
Emotionless, prognostication free investing. Ignoring the noise and economists since 1979. Getting rich off of "smart people's" behavioral mistakes.
Levett
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by Levett »

Years ago Barron's referred to it as the "idiot Wave."

Lev
minimalistmarc
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by minimalistmarc »

Pretcher has been saying the exact same thing for years. Not actionable.
WhyNotUs
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by WhyNotUs »

Elliot Wave predicts 50 out of every 5 recessions. :sharebeer :sharebeer
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onthecusp
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by onthecusp »

I don't know.

Really, I don't know, so I'll maintain my AA targets.

Elliot waves seem pretty obvious, until they miss a prediction, then you get to reinterpret the previous waves in light of the current bigger waves. People miss predictions with them all the time. Market timing.
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Crimsontide
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by Crimsontide »

Might as well throw chicken bones... what a crock.
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bottlecap
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by bottlecap »

So?

It's financial porn, but somehow this is financial porn we should take seriously?

JT
david1082b
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by david1082b »

Mr Prechter, what a legend:
Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016

Published: June 17, 2010

"The only way for the developing configuration to satisfy a perfect set of Fibonacci time relationships is for the stock market to fall over the next six years and bottom in 2016."

"This bear market is of Supercycle degree, the biggest since 1720-1784. It should therefore include a decline deeper that the 89% decline of 1929-1932. A decline of 91.5% or more would carry it below 1,000."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ellio ... 2010-06-17

At least he can count I guess.
Beat The Street
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by Beat The Street »

david1082b wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 7:52 pm Mr Prechter, what a legend:
Elliot Wave predicts triple-digit Dow in 2016

Published: June 17, 2010

"The only way for the developing configuration to satisfy a perfect set of Fibonacci time relationships is for the stock market to fall over the next six years and bottom in 2016."

"This bear market is of Supercycle degree, the biggest since 1720-1784. It should therefore include a decline deeper that the 89% decline of 1929-1932. A decline of 91.5% or more would carry it below 1,000."
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ellio ... 2010-06-17

At least he can count I guess.
In 1720 Prechter was just finishing up grad school. Elliott Wave, Dow Theory, Death Cross, Head and Shoulders formation, all garbage.
“Never ask anyone for their opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask them what they have—or don’t have—in their portfolio.” -Taleb
livesoft
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by livesoft »

My thoughts: This thread should be deleted. Anybody can model the past chart of any stock market with enough Fourier terms. Just because you don't know math is no reason to believe that mathematicians are magicians. I suppose though that Fake News is the Law of the Land nowadays.
Last edited by livesoft on Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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BolderBoy
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by BolderBoy »

racy wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:41 pm Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory... Thoughts?
As a special favor to you, I will tonight gut an owl and read its entrails. You'll know by tomorrow what I found out about the future.
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Phineas J. Whoopee
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by Phineas J. Whoopee »

racy wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:41 pm Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory.
Quoting him, "The market is registering a major peak right now, Prechter said -- which means the economy may be entering a bear market similar to that in 1929 and 1966, both years that included major market crashes. Prechter declined to speculate at what rate he thought the S&P would fall but suggested it would be higher than 20%. "http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... chter.html
Thoughts?
My thought is, given what I underlined, he's not predicting anything, which is smart for him because that way he can't be wrong.

PJW
westrichj312
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by westrichj312 »

if you believe in the wave you might as well believe in the little green man coming down from space!
ryman554
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by ryman554 »

Come on guys, lets give the OP a break.

There is a reason that investment banks are spending so much on quants and research into chaos theory to predict future results. There has to be some there there in mathematical investing.

<tinfoil hat> But the good stuff is not going to be revealed by a guy who's going to talking to Neil Cavuto, unless he's a whistleblower talking about a sinister plot by the big banks to rig a huge downturn so they can swoop in like Mr. Potter and buy it all up at discount prices.... </tinfoil hat>

Anybody who knows anything ain't saying it. Anybody who says it just wants to get rich/famous but doesn't know squat.
skepticalobserver
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by skepticalobserver »

Prechter for does have staying power. I was reading about the Wave in Futures magazine in 1980's. Has anybody turned a dime on this stuff (other than Bob)?
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Raymond
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by Raymond »

BolderBoy wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:39 pm
racy wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:41 pm Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory... Thoughts?
As a special favor to you, I will tonight gut an owl and read its entrails. You'll know by tomorrow what I found out about the future.
Please, not an owl! I like them, and they are cool birds.

Now a pigeon? Gut as many of those pooping airborne rats as you want :P

Better yet, just use live chickens, hurl pieces of cake at them and see what they do - worked pretty well for the Romans.

Maybe we should throw cake at Mr. Cavuto and his guests? If they gobble it up, then all will be well.
"Ritter, Tod und Teufel"
technovelist
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by technovelist »

"There's one born every minute." -- Attributed to P. T. Barnum.
In theory, theory and practice are identical. In practice, they often differ.
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alpenglow
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by alpenglow »

Levett wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:56 pm Years ago Barron's referred to it as the "idiot Wave."
Nice.
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Steelersfan
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by Steelersfan »

Raymond wrote: Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:24 am
BolderBoy wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:39 pm
racy wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 4:41 pm Neil Cavuto had Robert Prechter on Fox Business today (yeah, I know, "financial porn"). Anyway, he's predicting a big recession using his Elliott Wave theory... Thoughts?
As a special favor to you, I will tonight gut an owl and read its entrails. You'll know by tomorrow what I found out about the future.
Please, not an owl! I like them, and they are cool birds.

Now a pigeon? Gut as many of those pooping airborne rats as you want :P

Better yet, just use live chickens, hurl pieces of cake at them and see what they do - worked pretty well for the Romans.

Maybe we should throw cake at Mr. Cavuto and his guests? If they gobble it up, then all will be well.
My favorite posts of the day, right there. Thanks for the grins. :happy
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HomerJ
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by HomerJ »

skepticalobserver wrote: Thu Nov 02, 2017 9:17 am Prechter for does have staying power. I was reading about the Wave in Futures magazine in 1980's. Has anybody turned a dime on this stuff (other than Bob)?
How many times can someone make a wrong prediction and still get invited onto T.V. and taken seriously?
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jmndu99
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by jmndu99 »

Great as I'm in the accumulation phase and need to buy at firesale prices.
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racy
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by racy »

livesoft wrote: Wed Nov 01, 2017 8:38 pm My thoughts: This thread should be deleted. Anybody can model the past chart of any stock market with enough Fourier terms. Just because you don't know math is no reason to believe that mathematicians are magicians. I suppose though that Fake News is the Law of the Land nowadays.
Oh, come on. Join in the fun!
And, for those not familiar with Fourier terms (like me), I Googled a definition from Wikipedia and copied it here:
"In mathematics, a Fourier series is a way to represent a (wave-like) function as the sum of simple sine waves. More formally, it decomposes any periodic function or periodic signal into the sum of a (possibly infinite) set of simple oscillating functions, namely sines and cosines (or, equivalently, complex exponentials)."
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by minesweep »

Even a broken clock is right twice.....
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy - John Bogle | Learn every day, but especially from the experiences of others, it's cheaper! - John Bogle
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racy
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Re: Robert Prechter, Elliott Wave theorist, Fox Business today

Post by racy »

An evaluation and ranking of 68 market forecasters was conducted in May of this year. Spoiler alert! Prechter ranked last!

See page 19.
https://poseidon01.ssrn.com/delivery.ph ... 78&EXT=pdf
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