Northern Flicker wrote: ↑Fri May 14, 2021 8:02 pm
midareff wrote: ↑Fri May 14, 2021 6:02 pm
Please advise what Vanguard of other International Fund (ticker) you were in at that time as I'd like to check your recollection of the happenings 20 + years ago. VGTSX only goes back to 6/26/1996, and VTIAX goes back even less.
Using VGTSX and Morningstars proxy for International equity the performance from 2001 to date; .... international performance is up 183.19% vs. 346.73% for the S&P 500. Respectfully, there is no way that helped your portfolio but recollections are a wonderful thing.... unless you have numbers and tickers your just saying.
BTW, Monarchos won the Kentucky Derby in 2001 ... is that of any relevance today?
I held a combination of CREF Stock (which was still 100% US back then) and CREF Global Equities in proportion needed to make the allocation, then Vanguard funds from 1/1/2008 to present (vtmgx for int'l until 3/2020).
You can do the calculation with Vanguard index funds. The point you may be missing is the glide path. I went from 70% stocks to 60% stocks in 6/2007 and to 55% stocks on 12/31/2007. The dates of the two changes had to do with replacing TIAA Real Estate with a direct real estate holding and reflect the timings of cash flows from that, but the move from 70/30 to 55/45 completed on 12/31/2007 for the stock/bond portfolio was an intentional glide path allocation decision.
In the calculation, I used 70/30 from 6/2001 to 12/31/2007, and 55/45 starting 1/2/2008 as the stock/bond allocations, with 25% of stock in non-US stock, reflective of the stock/bond holdings I had. The reduction to 60% stock for the last half of 2007 as an intermediate step in the glide path change boosted return very slightly, but I left that out of the calculation because it was just a lucky timing artifact. I did not consider cash flows from ongoing portfolio contributions, which would not be easy to do.
Thanks for your thoughtful reply. I'm sure that made good sense at the time for you with your individual goals and destination point in mind. From the data I see historically, and it has been posted in any of a hundred other threads on the topic, International may outperform from time to time but looking over the scope of an investor's time horizon, from start to end, international has under performed and been a drag on final portfolio results. Look at the larger picture, 1900 forward or if you prefer 1950 forward. I've been in the market for 5 decades myself and a couple, or a few years here or there of international out-performance just aren't enough. Besides the actual performance issue is the fact that more than 42% of the sales of the S&P500 are internationally sourced. The S&P500 is already tied to the rest of the world in the manner that really counts.. $ale$ and profit$. Just because a company has it's legal domicile in Bulgaria or Ireland or other location that makes sense to them or their lawyers outside the US doesn't make it an International company, or an international company worth owning in place of S&P500 or US Total Stock Market investment dollars.
There is 37 pages of back and forth on this thread, mostly about International and diversification. If diversification, from an international perspective, is the only free lunch on Wall Street, it is the most expensive lunch you could have eaten over your investing lifetime. I too ate the pablum coming from this echo chamber for a few years after I first read about this internet site in a Bill Bernstein book, maybe a dozen or likely more years ago. Lots of cute sayings here, they echo back and forth. Many are good, some are excellent, some just don't work as well as the saying would have you expect, but have lots of supporters who can point to specific periods in time when it applied. Over a lifetime it hasn't, over someone else's lifetime looking forward you never know what Mr. Market will do. Vanguard shows the Total US p/e @ 27.3 currently vs. 17.6 for International. Do I expect there will be a time, a year or a few where things return to what mean or average may actually apply in the 2020's .. sure I do. Do I expect the vibrancy and entrepreneurial capitalist spirit in the US to continue to outperform over extended time periods, same sure I do and that's good enough for Warren, was good enough for Jack and certainly is good enough for me.
I've said my peace, others have other opinions and I wish them investing success too. I know what's good for me and I intend to stay with it until data, not emotions or sayings, show me otherwise. Have a great weekend and thanks again for your thoughtful reply..