Caduceus wrote: ↑Sun Aug 01, 2021 1:59 pm
YTD, using IRR calculations, I am up 105.7%. Definitely unexpected to see portfolio more than doubling in about half a year.
Buying some call options during the dark days of the covid crisis helped juice returns a little, but most of the gains came from the portfolio's heavy concentration in just two equity positions at the start of the year. Portfolio return would have been even better had I not sold my options too early in retrospect. The options I sold went on to more than double in value.
64% of my portfolio is currently in one stock and 36% in cash (selling cash-secured puts for yield).
Bluce wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 3:45 pm
One's "Up YTD" number doesn't mean anything if one includes contributions.
Plenty of people in this thread include contributions, most likely because it's a silly thread which doesn't justify doing the extra math.
That's the best explanation I've heard yet!
I thought they were all older ladies from Beardstown, Illinois
Yes.
I like to keep track (no Beardstown) a few times per year to see how I measure up against Wellesley. IMO, one should always measure their portfolio against a known benchmark. If you have a 50/50 AA, then you should be doing about half of the SnP. If you're trading stocks, or jumping in and out of funds and your return is less than the benchmark, then give it up and buy and hold indexes.
I have roughly the same AA as Wellesley (plus VWIAX is about 12% of my portfolio). I don't know what my beta is though, but probably higher than Wells cuz I have a couple of very volatile closed-end bond funds.
As of yesterday, VWIAX is up 7.58% YTD.
My port is up 7.29%.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
placeholder wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:51 pm
Now that I'm retired my pension just about matches my spending so my results are close enough to real to not worry about it.
placeholder wrote: ↑Tue Aug 31, 2021 6:51 pm
Now that I'm retired my pension just about matches my spending so my results are close enough to real to not worry about it.
That's hitting the sweet spot! Congrats.
Non cola so down the line inflation will change that but I can also start social security when I want.
YTD (31 August 2021) returns of a few 60/40 funds for your viewing pleasure:
+09.23% VSMGX Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth fund, has US + International
+11.74% VBIAX Vanguard Balanced Index fund, has US only and no international
+11.79% DGSIX, DFA Global Allocation 60/40 I fund, a small-cap and value tilted 60/40 asset allocation
Once again, the performance of a 60/40 portfolio varies by quite a bit depending on how the 60/40 is constituted.
Also note:
+33.63% AVUV Avantis US Small Cap Value ETF
+13.14% MTUM iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF
+20.57% VTSAX Vanguard Total US Stock Market
+10.14% VTIAX Vanguard Total International Stock Market -00.68% VBTLX Vanguard US Bond Index fund
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I never look at YTD because it's a variable amount of time and there is nothing special about January 1. For the trailing year, 13.8%, 3 Fund portfolio, 50/50.
chuckb84 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:30 am
I never look at YTD because it's a variable amount of time and there is nothing special about January 1. For the trailing year, 13.8%, 3 Fund portfolio, 50/50.
There is nothing special about Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) either.
Total returns for either period are still just interesting numbers. For us 10.98% YTD versus 18.34% TTM, asset allocation of 50/50, a three-fund portfolio plus small-cap value.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
chuckb84 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:30 am
I never look at YTD because it's a variable amount of time and there is nothing special about January 1. For the trailing year, 13.8%, 3 Fund portfolio, 50/50.
There is nothing special about Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) either.
Agree. I have my Schwab/Summary/Personal Value opening page set to "YTD".
When one calendar year is over I record what my PF did for that year, then forget about it and start over.
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes
chuckb84 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:30 am
I never look at YTD because it's a variable amount of time and there is nothing special about January 1. For the trailing year, 13.8%, 3 Fund portfolio, 50/50.
There is nothing special about Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) either.
Total returns for either period are still just interesting numbers. For us 10.98% YTD versus 18.34% TTM, asset allocation of 50/50, a three-fund portfolio plus small-cap value.
Sure. Either one is a recency snapshot, so add a grain of salt. But TTM is at least a fixed interval. I've never understood how YTD is interesting in February.
chuckb84 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 03, 2021 11:30 am
I never look at YTD because it's a variable amount of time and there is nothing special about January 1. For the trailing year, 13.8%, 3 Fund portfolio, 50/50.
There is nothing special about Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) either.
Total returns for either period are still just interesting numbers. For us 10.98% YTD versus 18.34% TTM, asset allocation of 50/50, a three-fund portfolio plus small-cap value.
Sure. Either one is a recency snapshot, so add a grain of salt. But TTM is at least a fixed interval. I've never understood how YTD is interesting in February.
Maybe it's like watching a race or a ball game. The final time or final score score is the only thing that counts, but it can be thrilling to watch.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
chuckb84 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:19 pmSure. Either one is a recency snapshot, so add a grain of salt. But TTM is at least a fixed interval. I've never understood how YTD is interesting in February.
Either way or any way, performance numbers are only interesting when compared to a benchmark with a similar level of risk. And that's the beauty of this thread: Everyone can cheat on their benchmarks, so that they always outperform their benchmarks whether over TTM or YTD.
And even various portfolios consisting of 60% equities and 40% fixed income can have quite varied levels of risk depending on the kinds of equities and the kinds of fixed income they hold.
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It is interesting. When the markets are up like 10% if your allocation is 40% to equities you are up by 4% and if you are allocation is 80% to equities you are up by 8%. Not such a huge difference if you think about it. But the riskiness of having an 80% allocation v/s 40% allocation is such a huge difference!
chuckb84 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 04, 2021 8:19 pm
Either one is a recency snapshot, so add a grain of salt.
Rolling 40-year average is more interesting.
How we are doing compared to our withdrawal rate is more interesting to me. YTD enough to cover about three years of living expenses net of Social Security.
"Everything should be as simple as it is, but not simpler." - Albert Einstein |
Wiki article link: Bogleheads® investment philosophy
revhappy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 05, 2021 10:02 am
It is interesting. When the markets are up like 10% if your allocation is 40% to equities you are up by 4% and if you are allocation is 80% to equities you are up by 8%. Not such a huge difference if you think about it. But the riskiness of having an 80% allocation v/s 40% allocation is such a huge difference!
But that is the important part for both accumulators and even decumulators.
A 4% of 1 million is 40K and 8% is 80K. Compound that over 10 years we are talking about more than half a million. For retirees, it all depends on inflation. The decade 2010 -2020 with less than 2% inflation and >10% average return is like a golden era. Had it been 3.5% inflation and 5% returns whether one has 40-60 vs 80-20 will make all the difference. For a lost decade like 2010's it would have made way more difference in real terms.
When in doubt, http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=79939
As previously noted, I use Wellesley as my benchmark -- because my AA is very close to theirs and Wellesley has an excellent track record going all the way back to 1970 (9.68% annualized), so it's a high benchmark. So if I can at least keep up with them I'm happy.
I probably have a higher beta though, because I have some closed-end bond funds which are very volatile, but have a high payout which is why I have them.
As of 9/3, YTD:
Wellesley: +6.96%
Bluce's PF: + 7.73%
"There are no new ideas, only forgotten ones." -- Amity Shlaes