Stock Market success

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

Some have hinted at market success, not many have shared the elements of success. What I originally posted: I've got a sense that few people can buy and hold great companies over years, have never met anyone in real life that got rich this way. If you have had success in this manner, please share the story and any key features.


Yeah, I know this is the BH forum. I expect that market success is on a bell curve. I expect that few have bought and held. I expect that ID ing great companies is difficult to do. BUT, if you have done all those things, I want to know the details. What was your story at the time? Why did you buy and hold that company? I am not trying to troll, I want to learn, be a voyeur of your success.

Thanks
Pale Blue Dot
User avatar
firebirdparts
Posts: 4412
Joined: Thu Jun 13, 2019 4:21 pm
Location: Southern Appalachia

Re: Stock Market success

Post by firebirdparts »

4nursebee wrote: Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:52 am I've got a sense that few people can buy and hold great companies over years, have never met anyone in real life that got rich this way.
I think everybody could, but people just don't. Sometimes they spend the money, and sometimes they get tired of waiting for the stock to go up and they buy something else. FWIW. I almost made it, but ultimately my boring investments were better than my guesswork. I did some of the right things but I did not quite string enough good decisions together to pull this off. In my own example, I made modest investments in Apple in say 1993 because I was a fan of their products. They almost went bankrupt for a long time and I got tired of it going nowhere. Had I made that one decision differently, then it would today be significant.

I've met plenty of people who were rich and who held great companies for a long time. but I would say primarily they 'got rich' by not spending the money and investing it in "something". There is certainly a correlation between not spending the money and having a high income. It's not a perfect correlation but it's there.
Last edited by firebirdparts on Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
This time is the same
Tingting1013
Posts: 1594
Joined: Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:44 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Tingting1013 »

nisiprius wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2012 5:50 am
umfundi wrote:In my view, investing in the total available market has been proven to give a sufficiently assured result. Perhaps not provable by the Scientific Method but, in my book, sufficiently plausible.
I've recently been posting variants on rants about what happens if you test investing theories. That is, if you take some very confidently expressed statement, such as "value beats growth," that has a very plausible Homo economicus argument as to why it does, and then going out and choosing your own data to look at, rather than looking through the green-tinted glasses of someone else's choice of funds, indexes, data sets, start and end points. It is remarkable how often the investment just doesn't do what it's supposed to. The champions of the proposition always have explanations of why your specific choices were wrong, or why your start and end points include some unique anomalous once-in-a-lifetime event that shouldn't count.

In contrast, it occurs to me, index funds are one of the rare exceptions. Index funds in theory give you the total return of the index, less a small drag due to expenses. And the point is that, in the real world, with real index funds created by real fallible humans with real expenses, they do. In practice, not just in theory!

They don't have to be the right brand, you don't need to measure between the right dates, it works with real live dollars in real live index funds, not just on a spreadsheet. It doesn't have to be a Vanguard fund; some lousy 0.5% expense ratio monstrosity in a bad 401(k) works, too. About the only exception I can think off offhand is the Schwab Total Bond Index Fund. That is, if you pick an index fund at random, the chances that it will pay you something close to the actual index returns are probably upward of 99%. And that would have been true, I think, for "out of sample" forward-looking behavior; that is, I think that if you'd picked index funds, anyone's index funds, in 2002, the average annualized returns of them going forward from 2002 would have been a very decent match for the index... for every single one of them but Schwab Total Bond Index.
Saying that “index funds give you the returns of the index” is a tautology, not a predictive theory. It is not at all comparable to “value beats growth” or some other predictive statement. It is more comparable to the statement “if you own value stocks, you’ll get the return of those stocks, whatever they are.”

Reading in between the lines, you are basically saying you don’t believe any predictive theory is possible in investing.

Which is certainly a debatable point.

Let me extend your statement about index funds: “If you leverage an index fund, you’ll get the returns of the index fund, on the upside and the downside.”
User avatar
Brianmcg321
Posts: 1875
Joined: Mon Jul 15, 2019 8:23 am

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Brianmcg321 »

firebirdparts wrote: Sun Dec 20, 2020 10:38 am
4nursebee wrote: Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:52 am I've got a sense that few people can buy and hold great companies over years, have never met anyone in real life that got rich this way.
I think everybody could, but people just don't. Sometimes they spend the money, and sometimes they get tired of waiting for the stock to go up and they buy something else. FWIW. I almost made it, but ultimately my boring investments were better than my guesswork. I did some of the right things but I did not quite string enough good decisions together to pull this off. In my own example, I made modest investments in Apple in say 1993 because I was a fan of their products. They almost went bankrupt for a long time and I got tired of it going nowhere. Had I made that one decision differently, then it would today be significant.

I've met plenty of people who were rich and who held great companies for a long time. but I would say primarily they 'got rich' by not spending the money and investing it in "something". There is certainly a correlation between not spending the money and having a high income. It's not a perfect correlation but it's there.
There are more than a few former TSLA stock holders post on YouTube that sold their shares a year ago to fund the purchase of a new Tesla.

That cost them millions theoretically.
Rules to investing: | 1. Don't lose money. | 2. Don't forget rule number 1.
athan
Posts: 292
Joined: Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:33 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by athan »

In 2015 I posted here for the first time with my post-residency portfolio of $320,000. At the time I had over 10 percent of investment portfolio in Tesla ($40k).

Boglehead heavy hitters like Livesoft told me it was not ok to have 10 percent in individual stocks.

Other Boglehead hall of famers like Toons told me it was ok, as he had done well over time with some individual stocks.

I decided to hold on to Tesla, and even doubled my position in 2019 when it dropped again under 200 pre-split.

My ten percent investment in Tesla is now 50 percent of portfolio, or around 1.1 million.

It has allowed me to use other funds to pay if my mortgage, and also build a backyard pool during Covid.

I also feel more secure in my professional life, as I know I already have around 25 times expenses at the age of 40. I can cut back on work and still be ok financially.

Of course this can change in an instant with the volatility of Tesla, but I still believe in Elon Musk and will hold for the long term.

I’m not sure if I am rich from an individual stock, but I am actually less stressed for sure with the added security because of Tesla stock.
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

athan wrote: Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:36 pm In 2015 I posted here for the first time with my post-residency portfolio of $320,000. At the time I had over 10 percent of investment portfolio in Tesla ($40k).

Boglehead heavy hitters like Livesoft told me it was not ok to have 10 percent in individual stocks.

Other Boglehead hall of famers like Toons told me it was ok, as he had done well over time with some individual stocks.

I decided to hold on to Tesla, and even doubled my position in 2019 when it dropped again under 200 pre-split.

My ten percent investment in Tesla is now 50 percent of portfolio, or around 1.1 million.

It has allowed me to use other funds to pay if my mortgage, and also build a backyard pool during Covid.

I also feel more secure in my professional life, as I know I already have around 25 times expenses at the age of 40. I can cut back on work and still be ok financially.

Of course this can change in an instant with the volatility of Tesla, but I still believe in Elon Musk and will hold for the long term.

I’m not sure if I am rich from an individual stock, but I am actually less stressed for sure with the added security because of Tesla stock.

Why TSLA?

Why were you able to hold? Why did you add?
Pale Blue Dot
Marseille07
Posts: 16054
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:41 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Marseille07 »

It's a bit troubling by the notion that stock market success is conflated with picking something and B&H it; lots of people do it the other way where they tactically trade stocks and do well long-term.
athan
Posts: 292
Joined: Fri Nov 13, 2015 3:33 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by athan »

4nursebee wrote: Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:40 pm
athan wrote: Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:36 pm In 2015 I posted here for the first time with my post-residency portfolio of $320,000. At the time I had over 10 percent of investment portfolio in Tesla ($40k).

Boglehead heavy hitters like Livesoft told me it was not ok to have 10 percent in individual stocks.

Other Boglehead hall of famers like Toons told me it was ok, as he had done well over time with some individual stocks.

I decided to hold on to Tesla, and even doubled my position in 2019 when it dropped again under 200 pre-split.

My ten percent investment in Tesla is now 50 percent of portfolio, or around 1.1 million.

It has allowed me to use other funds to pay if my mortgage, and also build a backyard pool during Covid.

I also feel more secure in my professional life, as I know I already have around 25 times expenses at the age of 40. I can cut back on work and still be ok financially.

Of course this can change in an instant with the volatility of Tesla, but I still believe in Elon Musk and will hold for the long term.

I’m not sure if I am rich from an individual stock, but I am actually less stressed for sure with the added security because of Tesla stock.

Why TSLA?

Why were you able to hold? Why did you add?
Tesla because I realized early the unique skill set Elon Musk has to be able to discuss anything on a technical level with experts in that field. Then his ability to make those discussions a part of manufacturing reality.

Tesla was the public way to invest in an Elon Musk company, and still is today.

I started investing in Tesla before Model 3 production, but I liked the idea of the Nevada battery factory exponentially increasing the world’s battery production.
BogleFan510
Posts: 1039
Joined: Tue Aug 04, 2020 2:13 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by BogleFan510 »

removed
Last edited by BogleFan510 on Mon Dec 28, 2020 11:50 am, edited 1 time in total.
kleiner
Posts: 346
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2020 8:45 am

Re: Stock Market success

Post by kleiner »

I bought a $1000 worth of Apple in 1998 and still own those shares - does that count? :happy
User avatar
abuss368
Posts: 27850
Joined: Mon Aug 03, 2009 2:33 pm
Location: Where the water is warm, the drinks are cold, and I don't know the names of the players!
Contact:

Re: Stock Market success

Post by abuss368 »

4nursebee wrote: Sat Dec 08, 2012 7:52 am I'd like to hear from others on stock market success. I know that most here do not advocate picking individual stocks, and those that do advocate it suggest no more than 10% of funds.

I've got a sense that few people can buy and hold great companies over years, have never met anyone in real life that got rich this way. If you have had success in this manner, please share the story and any key features. In 10 years or so I hope to post my own success story.

Thank you.
During our individual stock picking days: America On Line in the 1990s. Once in a lifetime.

Best.
Tony
John C. Bogle: “Simplicity is the master key to financial success."
User avatar
ThereAreNoGurus
Posts: 970
Joined: Fri Jan 24, 2014 10:41 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by ThereAreNoGurus »

4nursebee wrote: Sun Dec 20, 2020 9:17 am Some have hinted at market success, not many have shared the elements of success. What I originally posted: I've got a sense that few people can buy and hold great companies over years, have never met anyone in real life that got rich this way. If you have had success in this manner, please share the story and any key features.
I bought, held, and re-invested dividends in many great companies. In fact my investments from the early eighties have returned over 5,000%. Yeah, that's right... over five thousand percent, but this is not what the OP is looking for.

However, for those that are interested, here's my secret: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/
Trade the news and you will lose.
ColoradoRick
Posts: 203
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2016 12:06 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by ColoradoRick »

OP - I've had index funds with some individual stocks on the side. The last 3 years (2017-8-9) slightly beat the S&P500 which is my benchmark. Individual stocks got up to 34% of our total assets. Really for past 15 years I treated the individual stocks as kind of a hobby but after having some Boglehead guilt I figured in 2016 that I really should look at the facts, hence I can say most of my individual stocks did slightly better than the S&P. But the slightly increased performance isn't worth the risk. No TESLA home run here.

However this year I have one of the the Dow & S&Ps dogs and it has really dragged down my performance. Going to slowly liquidate the dog starting in January. As I'm getting older I've decided to fade out of individual stocks so when my wife survives me, she'll just have basically the SP 500 Index fund and very little if any individual stocks.

Its been a lot of fun and was great to see that my hobby really didn't cost me much and maybe made 1-1.5%/year more. However given the increased risk I would not recommend it to make more money unless you want to consider it a hobby. I would recommend (as many have) not doing more than 5 to 10% of your total assets in individual stocks if you feel you have to scratch the itch.
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

Well, when I started this post I thought I would have my own success story to tell in 10 years. Now it seems that I have just over a year left for that. Does anyone have an update? Any homeruns or 10Xs or 100Xs?
Pale Blue Dot
livesoft
Posts: 86076
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by livesoft »

4nursebee wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:52 am Well, when I started this post I thought I would have my own success story to tell in 10 years. Now it seems that I have just over a year left for that. Does anyone have an update? Any homeruns or 10Xs or 100Xs?
The stock market is up (or will be up by end of today or has been up) by 20% in 2021 alone. So if one had $5 million in total US Stock Market Index or similar investments at the beginning of the year, then they would have made a million dollars so far in 2021. That's a mere 0.2X and not 10X or 100X, but it is still a million dollars they didn't have at the beginning of the year and that surely counts as Stock Market success.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

livesoft wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:14 am
4nursebee wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:52 am Well, when I started this post I thought I would have my own success story to tell in 10 years. Now it seems that I have just over a year left for that. Does anyone have an update? Any homeruns or 10Xs or 100Xs?
The stock market is up (or will be up by end of today or has been up) by 20% in 2021 alone. So if one had $5 million in total US Stock Market Index or similar investments at the beginning of the year, then they would have made a million dollars so far in 2021. That's a mere 0.2X and not 10X or 100X, but it is still a million dollars they didn't have at the beginning of the year and that surely counts as Stock Market success.
At some point in December of 2012 the SP 500 was about 1514, now 4395. I'm willing to call that a 3x. It is interesting to ponder individual stock returns in comparison. For example, at some point in December 2012 TSLA was <10, now 750. That is a lot more X.
Pale Blue Dot
livesoft
Posts: 86076
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by livesoft »

4nursebee wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:22 amFor example, at some point in December 2012 TSLA was <10, now 750. That is a lot more X.
Indeed, but it would take some fortitude to not sell off some shares of big winners as they overwhelm one's portfolio, so only special people might have participated in the complete run up of such individual stocks.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

livesoft wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:24 am
4nursebee wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:22 amFor example, at some point in December 2012 TSLA was <10, now 750. That is a lot more X.
Indeed, but it would take some fortitude to not sell off some shares of big winners as they overwhelm one's portfolio, so only special people might have participated in the complete run up of such individual stocks.
Such specialness: Is it random, learned, teachable? Could it have been predicted?
Same for fortitude?
Pale Blue Dot
livesoft
Posts: 86076
Joined: Thu Mar 01, 2007 7:00 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by livesoft »

4nursebee wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:31 amSuch specialness: Is it random, learned, teachable? Could it have been predicted?
Same for fortitude?
Actually, it is wealth. People for who a 75X gain in their shares of TSLA would make no material change in their wealth would be more likely to let it ride than to sell some of their shares after 10X or 20X or XXX (i.e. obscene) gains.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
Ed 2
Posts: 2692
Joined: Sat May 15, 2010 9:34 am

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Ed 2 »

4nursebee wrote: Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:40 pm
athan wrote: Sun Dec 20, 2020 1:36 pm In 2015 I posted here for the first time with my post-residency portfolio of $320,000. At the time I had over 10 percent of investment portfolio in Tesla ($40k).

Boglehead heavy hitters like Livesoft told me it was not ok to have 10 percent in individual stocks.

Other Boglehead hall of famers like Toons told me it was ok, as he had done well over time with some individual stocks.

I decided to hold on to Tesla, and even doubled my position in 2019 when it dropped again under 200 pre-split.

My ten percent investment in Tesla is now 50 percent of portfolio, or around 1.1 million.

It has allowed me to use other funds to pay if my mortgage, and also build a backyard pool during Covid.

I also feel more secure in my professional life, as I know I already have around 25 times expenses at the age of 40. I can cut back on work and still be ok financially.

Of course this can change in an instant with the volatility of Tesla, but I still believe in Elon Musk and will hold for the long term.

I’m not sure if I am rich from an individual stock, but I am actually less stressed for sure with the added security because of Tesla stock.

Why TSLA?

Why were you able to hold? Why did you add?
Recency bias. Performance chasing. Most of as assuming past performance for the last couple of years will be future performance. And most of us assume 10 years of investing a long term investing.
"The fund industry doesn't have a lot of heroes, but he (Bogle) is one of them," Russ Kinnel
Kookaburra
Posts: 2045
Joined: Thu Apr 02, 2020 11:14 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Kookaburra »

It’s easy to grin
When your ship has come in
And you’ve got the stock market beat
But the man worthwhile
Is the man who can smile
When his shorts are too tight in the seat

-Judge Smailes
User avatar
mrspock
Posts: 2158
Joined: Tue Feb 13, 2018 1:49 am
Location: Vulcan

Re: Stock Market success

Post by mrspock »

4nursebee wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:22 am
livesoft wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 5:14 am
4nursebee wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 4:52 am Well, when I started this post I thought I would have my own success story to tell in 10 years. Now it seems that I have just over a year left for that. Does anyone have an update? Any homeruns or 10Xs or 100Xs?
The stock market is up (or will be up by end of today or has been up) by 20% in 2021 alone. So if one had $5 million in total US Stock Market Index or similar investments at the beginning of the year, then they would have made a million dollars so far in 2021. That's a mere 0.2X and not 10X or 100X, but it is still a million dollars they didn't have at the beginning of the year and that surely counts as Stock Market success.
At some point in December of 2012 the SP 500 was about 1514, now 4395. I'm willing to call that a 3x. It is interesting to ponder individual stock returns in comparison. For example, at some point in December 2012 TSLA was <10, now 750. That is a lot more X.
The problem is scale. Individual stock investing does not lend itself to betting a huge chunk of your net worth. I have 2/3 of my entire NW in just two tickers. That’s it. Most people aren’t willing to bet that kind of money on single stocks. So while these 10 baggers sound great… it’s usually from 10k not millions. 100 baggers are maybe once in your life for a very small portion of investors.

It’s tantamount to saying “I’m going to grow up to be an NBA or NFL star.” — a great goal, but very few achieve it, and it makes for a poor financial plan due to the long odds.
2marshmallow
Posts: 71
Joined: Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:28 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 2marshmallow »

4nursebee wrote: Wed Dec 12, 2012 6:18 am Well I get the sense that as with the people I've met in real life that few have achieved great wealth investing in individual stocks. Those that have shared and done well seem to have bought, held, and added over many years in what happened to be good companies. But those winners appear to be tempered by underperformers. If anyone else has a story to share along these lines please do.

Thank you.
I know 2 people who may be relevant to your query, but first you would have to define "rich" and "great wealth".

Regards,
2marshmallow
mikejuss
Posts: 2833
Joined: Tue Jun 23, 2020 1:36 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by mikejuss »

4nursebee wrote: Sat Dec 08, 2012 11:00 amDespite the many people I have met in life, I have not met anyone that got rich with individual stocks. I think this rather supports not gambling in the market and sticking with the philosophies suggested here.
If that is the case, OP, then why are you fishing for success stories about individual-stock pickers? Be very careful. What insights do you think you have into the stock market that trained professionals don't?
50% VTSAX | 25% VTIAX | 25% VBTLX (retirement), 25% VTEAX (taxable)
Nowizard
Posts: 4842
Joined: Tue Oct 23, 2007 5:33 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Nowizard »

Starting out, we invested in stocks rather than funds, primarily due to lack of knowledge, thinking 8-10 stocks gave us diversification. We did acceptably but also had the biggest error when $20,000 in a stock became over $200K at a time when our asset total was probably 200K without counting that stock. Started down, we felt it would recover, but eventually sold at a profit of less than 10K. Have not bought individual stocks since other than on occasions when we felt a particular stock offered promise. We own more stocks now than anytime since the 1980's, seven, three of which are speculative. YTD return is 8.5% which is approximately equal to overall appreciation YTD for our portfolio. So, the positive is primarily that we enjoy watching the individual stocks, two of which have substantially larger profits in the past couple of years. It would be far too much time requirement to hold only individual stocks at this point in retirement and with the asset total. Individual stocks represent 5.6% of the total in our case at the moment.

Tim
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

:beer
Last edited by 4nursebee on Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
burritoLover
Posts: 4097
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:13 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by burritoLover »

A drunk monkey could have made money picking stocks in the last 10 years.
MrBeaver
Posts: 491
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:45 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by MrBeaver »

4nursebee wrote: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:10 am If I am not clear, I am looking for success stories of those that purchased individual stocks.
I have a friend (SW industry) who received a large severance package around 2012 in a very cyclical software sub-industry. He took most of it and invested it in the following:

TSLA
AAPL
FB

His reasoning was network effects in tech: electrification beyond cars (superchargers, etc.), iOS, and critical mass of social networks being difficult to unseat. I agreed with the reasoning but did not want to take on the single stock risks. He has done very well as a result. The CAGR of that portfolio over that time is over 70% versus roughly 12% for VTI.

I suspect one reason ‘picking stocks’ is alluring is because of (1)selection bias in the stories we hear, and (2)hypotheticals we imagine with hindsight information.

But it does happen.

At the same time, I would not be surprised if people who ‘get lucky’ once are much more likely to ‘get unlucky’ before they retire, bringing their returns back down toward market averages or below.
User avatar
Top99%
Posts: 465
Joined: Sat Apr 22, 2017 9:30 am
Location: Austin, TX

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Top99% »

The problem is the stock market is a 2nd order chaotic system. By that I mean if I could build some magic program which would accurately predict the price of TSLA on December 1st 2021 and that program predicted it would be $1000 unless I kept that all to myself the next day TSLA would rise to $1000 as traders rushed in to cash in on the rise to $1000. Then what would happen on December 1st 2021 would now become unknown. By comparison the weather is a 1st order chaotic system so improvements in prediction models don't influence the weather.
So, with all that in mind the few individual stocks I owned produced a random outcome and an overall net loss. My only "stock market success" has come from buying index funds.
Adapt or perish
Joey Jo Jo Jr
Posts: 553
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:38 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Joey Jo Jo Jr »

You seem to have an axe to grind with Boglehead investing, which has helped many people become better off by putting relatively simple but successful plans into place. How many people has your experience helped beside you and your significant other? What is your actionable advice? Get lucky like me? Please let us know when you start your own fund or newsletter.
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

:beer
Last edited by 4nursebee on Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pale Blue Dot
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

4nursebee wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:03 pm
Joey Jo Jo Jr wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 12:58 pm You seem to have an axe to grind with Boglehead investing, which has helped many people become better off by putting relatively simple but successful plans into place. How many people has your experience helped beside you and your significant other? What is your actionable advice? Get lucky like me? Please let us know when you start your own fund or newsletter.
Your questions get this a bit off topic, that of stock market success.
I clearly stated I am not interested in guiding others, I have nothing to sell pertaining to such.
Few to nobody listened to me, nobody asked.
No axe to grind. No beef. But there is a one size fits all approach to things here, bit of an echo chamber at times. It is the nature of things in society and the internet.
Pale Blue Dot
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

:sharebeer
Last edited by 4nursebee on Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pale Blue Dot
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

:sharebeer
Last edited by 4nursebee on Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pale Blue Dot
User avatar
burritoLover
Posts: 4097
Joined: Sun Jul 05, 2020 12:13 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by burritoLover »

4nursebee wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:09 pm
burritoLover wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 11:45 am A drunk monkey could have made money picking stocks in the last 10 years.

The thing is to have approached this sober minded and to choose properly and then sit tight.
The greatest price to earnings multiple expansion in US history, second only to the dot com bubble and it isn’t even done yet. Don’t confuse some luck and investing in one of the greatest bull markets in history as skill in stock picking. All your reasons listed for investing are all public knowledge - it just happened to work out and in period when investors were nutty over growth stocks.

Let’s see how you do during a period like the 70’s.
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5657
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Beensabu »

4nursebee wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:05 pm But there is a one size fits all approach to things here, bit of an echo chamber at times.
There's a reason for that. It's to help as many people as possible to do "good enough" and avoid potentially disastrous outcomes.

It's safer to conform and be part of the pack. That way, you have plenty of company. You never really feel like you personally have screwed up. There's a great psychological benefit to that. Our minds are real. What they experience matters.

If you try to push outside the pack, you could very well fall behind it instead. You could even be forced to drop out entirely.

You happened to get in front. I'm happy for you. I hope you keep your lead. That doesn't mean it can be repeated by almost anyone else. Some people try and succeed. Good for them. Some people try and fail. Sucks for them. Others do not try. It sure seems like they have been fine so far.

There will always be an element of ego in trying to push outside the pack. Confidence and belief in one's own abilities and tenacity. That confidence may be warranted, or it may not. You may succeed even if the confidence is not warranted. You may fail even if it is. If you're going to push, you better be absolutely sure your mind can take it if you fail.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Monsterflockster
Posts: 980
Joined: Wed Nov 20, 2019 11:03 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Monsterflockster »

4nursebee wrote: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:10 am If I am not clear, I am looking for success stories of those that purchased individual stocks.
I believe Lt. Dan, CEO of Bubba Gump Shrimp Company, invested in some “fruit company” named Apple on behalf of owner Forest Gump. Rumor has it he did do we he didn’t have to worry about money anymore.
Last edited by Monsterflockster on Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Topic Author
4nursebee
Posts: 2664
Joined: Sun Apr 01, 2012 7:56 am
Location: US

Re: Stock Market success

Post by 4nursebee »

:arrow:
Last edited by 4nursebee on Sun Oct 10, 2021 5:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Pale Blue Dot
User avatar
Beensabu
Posts: 5657
Joined: Sun Aug 14, 2016 3:22 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Beensabu »

4nursebee wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 1:43 pm I think that those that perform well in the market work harder and do not participate in BH.
I'd say they work "different". It's obviously possible. It is usually ascribed to luck here, and it very well may be due to luck. You can't know whether it is or not unless it is consistent over a long period of time, through bull and bear markets.

But whether or not it is probable for a random individual is the key. A random individual is just as likely (and arguably more so) to fail as to succeed when selecting individual stocks as their main investment. If there is a "safer" path to "good enough", then those unable/unwilling to accept failure will take it. That's not an unreasonable decision. BH warns those unable/unwilling to accept failure that failure is possible (and even probable) when taking a diversifiable unsystematic risk. And shows that it is possible to reduce that risk of failure, and how to do so. Then you make your decisions with your eyes open.
"The only thing that makes life possible is permanent, intolerable uncertainty; not knowing what comes next." ~Ursula LeGuin
Joey Jo Jo Jr
Posts: 553
Joined: Mon Jun 21, 2021 11:38 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by Joey Jo Jo Jr »

Bottom line is that you’ve got to trust someone. You can 1) trust professional advisors, 2) trust the broad market to do better than the pros in the aggregate on a net cost basis, or 3) trust yourself to be better at investing than both. I have enough humility, and other things to worry about, to admit that I am not in the third group, and enough wisdom shared from good people on this forum to avoid the first.

So if you can successfully help people join you in the third group then you should do that and not waste your time trying to dismiss bogleheads for the good work of helping guide people into the second group. However, in your heart of hearts I think you realize you got lucky and that luck cannot be reliably replicated. Tesla might be Enron on the way up for all you or I know.
MrBeaver
Posts: 491
Joined: Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:45 pm

Re: Stock Market success

Post by MrBeaver »

Joey Jo Jo Jr wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 3:40 pm Bottom line is that you’ve got to trust someone. You can 1) trust professional advisors, 2) trust the broad market to do better than the pros in the aggregate on a net cost basis, or 3) trust yourself to be better at investing than both.
This is really well put.

Somewhat on a tangent, I’ll ask a question: What reason do we have to believe that those with more money to invest are more ‘right’ than others?

I guess I’m asking why EM-theory assumes the ‘dollar vote’ is more rational than a ‘person vote’. Certainly someone with no dollars on the line should be viewed skeptically. But why should a stock-picker with $100k invested automatically have more weight than a stock picker with $10k invested?

And before you say ‘they have more experience or knowledge’ recognize that argument would be in favor of arguing that an actively managed fund (before fees) should beat the market as a whole.
User avatar
LadyGeek
Site Admin
Posts: 95695
Joined: Sat Dec 20, 2008 4:34 pm
Location: Philadelphia
Contact:

Re: Stock Market success

Post by LadyGeek »

The OP has removed content from the first post and several posts in this thread. The discussion is no longer productive.

This thread has run its course and is locked.
Wiki To some, the glass is half full. To others, the glass is half empty. To an engineer, it's twice the size it needs to be.
Locked