U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

HanSolo wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:48 am
TheDDC wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:15 pm
HanSolo wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:16 am
Nah... current overvaluation doesn't pose a problem as long as we accept diminished returns going forward.
Nah... I do not accept. Most would be in crypto by then if we we just "accept lower returns", which I don't. I accept historical average.
I looked up the historical average and I can guarantee to you that long-term returns from this point to, say, the end of the decade, won't be that number. They will be over or under.

Just to clarify... by "diminished returns" I didn't mean relative to historical average. I meant relative to what they would've been, had we not soared. For example, we don't know at what number the S&P will finish the decade, but it's a mathematical fact that returns from the current number to that endpoint are less than from some lower number to that endpoint. If, for example, we reach the 2029 endpoint number this year, then the remaining price return on the S&P will be zero for the rest of the decade. That is an example of diminished returns.

Not accepting diminished returns is mathematically equivalent to not accepting the soaring. And now that we know your position, glad to hear it!

Following up on this...
HanSolo wrote: Tue Oct 05, 2021 7:16 am
TheDDC wrote: Thu Sep 23, 2021 8:52 pm I call bottom on 9/21. Forester can thank me later.
Or... the other way around?
Just to clarify... my meaning was that I'm happy that Forester now has an apprentice in the delicate art of forecasting, and that it would be "good form" to thank him for your apprenticeship.

Good luck.
I think I found Forester's mentor.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Nathan Drake wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:38 am Future estimates are often wrong and overly optimistic

Profit margins are abnormally high by historical standards, which is usually followed by subpar earnings growth because it’s not sustainable

PE10 is used for this reason, and while not perfect it smoothes out the abnormally good or bad years
So what are you suggesting? Not staying the course?

The thing about accumulators is that it doesn't matter, since even if the US market is overvalued and crashes, we end up buying more shares on the cheap.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by pasadena »

AquaBliss wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:51 am
pasadena wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:55 pm
atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 am My Amazon shares have taken off. Not sure what is causing that but I'll take it
For me, it's Tesla, today, and I'll take it too :)
1week from today, Tesla will close over $1,000 for the first time. I mean I’m pretty sure at least ;)
Uhuh, yeah, that's what, 18%? Nothing! I wish lol. I wouldn't be surprised if the stock went back down some after the earnings call.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

lostdog wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:32 am
nedsaid wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:15 am
atdharris wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 10:12 am My Amazon shares have taken off. Not sure what is causing that but I'll take it
My theory is that Amazon might have fewer supply chain issues than its competitors. I also wonder if Wal-Mart has done well recently, their supply chain has been very good, their reputation was that if you couldn't find it somewhere else, chances were you could find it at Wal-Mart.
When we shop at Sam's Club, it looks like they're not having an issues at all. All shelves are stocked.
Yep, that is what I suspected. Thank you.
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HomerJ
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

HanSolo wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:48 am
TheDDC wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 4:15 pm
HanSolo wrote: Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:16 am
Nah... current overvaluation doesn't pose a problem as long as we accept diminished returns going forward.
Nah... I do not accept. Most would be in crypto by then if we we just "accept lower returns", which I don't. I accept historical average.
I looked up the historical average and I can guarantee to you that long-term returns from this point to, say, the end of the decade, won't be that number. They will be over or under.
End of the decade is not "long-term". You guys are talking about two different things.
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HanSolo
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

HomerJ wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 11:32 am
HanSolo wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:48 am I looked up the historical average and I can guarantee to you that long-term returns from this point to, say, the end of the decade, won't be that number. They will be over or under.
End of the decade is not "long-term". You guys are talking about two different things.
It's long-term by the standards of this thread. People talk about soaring on one day as if that means something.

No matter. My assertion applies to whatever time frame you want to pick.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

HanSolo wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 7:23 pm
HomerJ wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 11:32 am
HanSolo wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:48 am I looked up the historical average and I can guarantee to you that long-term returns from this point to, say, the end of the decade, won't be that number. They will be over or under.
End of the decade is not "long-term". You guys are talking about two different things.
It's long-term by the standards of this thread. People talk about soaring on one day as if that means something.

No matter. My assertion applies to whatever time frame you want to pick.
The IRS considers long term one year. We usually end up working about 40ish years. I think, long term changes for people as they reach retirement, especially if you become a more conservative investor after you retire.

Nevertheless, it's nice to see the market soaring based on earnings instead of spooky day to day stuff.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

This bull run is like 90% of Jazz Music - very pleasant & impressive for a period of time; but after a while it outstays its welcome and you want it to end. I am a humble Millennial accumulator. To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am This bull run is like 90% of Jazz Music - very pleasant & impressive for a period of time; but after a while it outstays its welcome and you want it to end. I am a humble Millennial accumulator. To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
You may want this bull to end, but some of us want it to continue.

And, I think it will. I think historians will look back on the past few decades and see it as a digital revolution which produced just as profound an effect on human society as the industrial revolution -- a permanent lifting of living standards. It keeps wringing a few more percent efficiency out of existing industrial processes each year. And it accelerates innovation and progress.

How long will it continue? It is hard to say, but I don't think it is over yet.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am This bull run is like 90% of Jazz Music - very pleasant & impressive for a period of time; but after a while it outstays its welcome and you want it to end. I am a humble Millennial accumulator. To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
"Predict, but verify."

Keep on soaring!
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HanSolo »

CurlyDave wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:48 am
Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am "Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
You may want this bull to end, but some of us want it to continue.
High prices are good for sellers. Low prices are good for buyers.

If you're neither, and looking at market ups and downs, then you're just watching a show.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
To be clear, this is kind of like a paraphrase, not a quote.

And, in my opinion, not a very good “paraphrase”.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am I am a humble ...
Wrong.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by vanbogle59 »

HanSolo wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 2:48 am I can guarantee to you that long-term returns from this point to, say, the end of the decade, won't be that number. They will be over or under.
Right.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

CurlyDave wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:48 am
Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am This bull run is like 90% of Jazz Music - very pleasant & impressive for a period of time; but after a while it outstays its welcome and you want it to end. I am a humble Millennial accumulator. To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
You may want this bull to end, but some of us want it to continue.

And, I think it will. I think historians will look back on the past few decades and see it as a digital revolution which produced just as profound an effect on human society as the industrial revolution -- a permanent lifting of living standards. It keeps wringing a few more percent efficiency out of existing industrial processes each year. And it accelerates innovation and progress.

How long will it continue? It is hard to say, but I don't think it is over yet.
Yes, it will end. Then begin again. Otherwise, there's always crypto.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 000 »

CurlyDave wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:48 am
Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am This bull run is like 90% of Jazz Music - very pleasant & impressive for a period of time; but after a while it outstays its welcome and you want it to end. I am a humble Millennial accumulator. To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
You may want this bull to end, but some of us want it to continue.

And, I think it will. I think historians will look back on the past few decades and see it as a digital revolution which produced just as profound an effect on human society as the industrial revolution -- a permanent lifting of living standards. It keeps wringing a few more percent efficiency out of existing industrial processes each year. And it accelerates innovation and progress.

How long will it continue? It is hard to say, but I don't think it is over yet.
Ohhh it sounds like I'm starting to hear that sweet sweet euphoria.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am This bull run is like 90% of Jazz Music - very pleasant & impressive for a period of time; but after a while it outstays its welcome and you want it to end. I am a humble Millennial accumulator. To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
Like 1965 - 1982, 1982 - 2000, and 2000 - 2012, I expect the 2012 - ? run to end also, perhaps it will last a comparable 12-18 years which means it would end in the 2024 - 2030 time frame. We could easily be up 50-100% if it does run that long, have no plans to miss out on that possibility.
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Post by mr_brightside »

I'm thinking some of this 'inflation' is companies taking price when they can use inflation as a cover story... are 'some' costs going up? absolutely. but I think a decent percentage is simply padding the profit margin.

earnings IMO are going to be VERY solid for a while. i won't be exiting equities in any meaningful way.

cruises have started again out of Florida (finally!) hundreds of thousands attending sporting events en masse. COVID vaccines AND treatments. hospitalization rates falling everywhere. we are finally putting COVID in the rearview. :beer

things look pretty good in that regard anyway.

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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Mr Market is struggling to go positive on the day.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 9:12 am Mr Market is struggling to go positive on the day.
The 'DAQ, my favorite index, is slightly positive. And my QQQ is starting to lift off.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by 456M »

I wish it stays in the red. My contributions don't hit my account till the end of this week. Looks like I missed this latest and biggest drop of 2021 lol.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:22 am
Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am This bull run is like 90% of Jazz Music - very pleasant & impressive for a period of time; but after a while it outstays its welcome and you want it to end. I am a humble Millennial accumulator. To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
Like 1965 - 1982, 1982 - 2000, and 2000 - 2012, I expect the 2012 - ? run to end also, perhaps it will last a comparable 12-18 years which means it would end in the 2024 - 2030 time frame. We could easily be up 50-100% if it does run that long, have no plans to miss out on that possibility.
I think, in general, the theory is that secular stock market cycles work in 15-20 year cycles... I think that's a generational thing. A new generation comes along that has learned none of the lessons about the stock market ups and downs, and makes all the same mistakes again

1913-1929 Bull market - 16 years
1929-1946 Bear market - 17 years
1946-1966 Bull market - 20 years
1966-1982 Bear Market - 16 years
1982-2000 Bull Market - 18 years
2000-2010 Bear market - 10 years
2010-2021? Bull market - 11+ years?

But this ignores all the crashes and good years inside each cycle. It doesn't really mean anything, just a funny idea I read once to explain why every 20 years we seem to have a new group of investors who think the stock market will NEVER crash, and grow to the moon, and then discover that no, there's always a crash and bad years on the horizon.

In any case, 2000-2010 was much shorter than the 16-20 year cycles in the past, so it doesn't even match anymore.
Last edited by HomerJ on Mon Oct 18, 2021 12:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

It doesn't tell us much, except that 2012-2021 would be on the short side historically.
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Post by vanbogle59 »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:08 am It doesn't tell us much, except that 2012-2021 would be on the short side historically.
Everything before the comma is great. After that, it goes downhill.
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Forester wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 7:13 am This bull run is like 90% of Jazz Music - very pleasant & impressive for a period of time; but after a while it outstays its welcome and you want it to end. I am a humble Millennial accumulator. To quote President Reagan:

"Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this bull market!"
You should start your own thread entitled Woe, Is Me. It could encompass both your Eeyore tendencies in financial "predictions" and your potential love of metalcore. :twisted:
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Post by firebirdparts »

lostdog wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 9:36 am
I think I found Forester's mentor.

https://twitter.com/Logan_JH1
Quality entertainment there.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

If no one else will say it, I will.

Soaring today!

S&P has (re)crossed the 4500 line.
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Stinky wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:51 am If no one else will say it, I will.

Soaring today!

S&P has (re)crossed the 4500 line.
Proud to say that my end of year target is 5400. [Comment speculating on legislative change removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] All it takes is a few days of 2% gains.
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Post by Vtsax100 »

My sources tell me the S&P 500 is headed to a new ATH. My sources have never been wrong.
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anoop wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:53 am
Stinky wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 9:51 am If no one else will say it, I will.

Soaring today!

S&P has (re)crossed the 4500 line.
Proud to say that my end of year target is 5400. [Comment speculating on legislative change removed by moderator oldcomputerguy] All it takes is a few days of 2% gains.
Upping your stock allocation, anoop?
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If big tech can blow it out next week in their ER, I think we'll keep soaring. Lots of big names report Tues-Thurs
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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atdharris wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:42 am If big tech can blow it out next week in their ER, I think we'll keep soaring. Lots of big names report Tues-Thurs
Hoping. Last time it was a fail.
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Post by atdharris »

lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:46 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:42 am If big tech can blow it out next week in their ER, I think we'll keep soaring. Lots of big names report Tues-Thurs
Hoping. Last time it was a fail.
I remember. But I think expectations are a bit lower this time since most of the big tech names gave soft guidance.
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Taper in progress ...
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lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:34 pm Taper in progress ...
Already :oops:
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lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:34 pm Taper in progress ...
Tiny taper. So far.
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lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:34 pm Taper in progress ...
Tapering appears to be canceled
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Post by Stinky »

lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:34 pm Taper in progress ...
The taper stopped. The market moved up.

S&P closed at 99.4% of ATH.
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Post by atdharris »

Nice NFLX beat AH. We may see another green day tomorrow
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atdharris wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 3:10 pm Nice NFLX beat AH. We may see another green day tomorrow
It's not up by much after hours.
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atdharris wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 1:09 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 12:46 pm
atdharris wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 11:42 am If big tech can blow it out next week in their ER, I think we'll keep soaring. Lots of big names report Tues-Thurs
Hoping. Last time it was a fail.
I remember. But I think expectations are a bit lower this time since most of the big tech names gave soft guidance.
Given the way banks did I wouldn't be surprised if they had great earnings.
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Post by lostdog »

Netflix down 1.25%...

Will we have another earnings season disappoinment?
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lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:21 pm Netflix down 1.25%...

Will we have another earnings season disappoinment?
I thought they had good earnings. I guess good is bad these days. Maybe he lowered expectations on the earnings call.
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Post by Trader Joe »

"U.S. stocks continue to soar!"

Of course.
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Post by atdharris »

lostdog wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 5:21 pm Netflix down 1.25%...

Will we have another earnings season disappoinment?
You never know. I don't think NFLX guided down or anything like that. It's probably because DB downgraded the stock because of slowing revenue growth, which could actually plague other big tech names given they are now being measured against record growth during the pandemic
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Post by Vtsax100 »

Looks like some nice soaring has started for the day.
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Post by lostdog »

Vtsax100 wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:26 am Looks like some nice soaring has started for the day.
Please, no tapering today.
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Post by 456M »

Vtsax100 wrote: Wed Oct 20, 2021 9:26 am Looks like some nice soaring has started for the day.
Seems like everything is soaring. Even the currency that shall not be named.
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