Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
Post Reply
User avatar
Topic Author
fredflinstone
Posts: 2829
Joined: Mon Mar 29, 2010 7:35 am
Location: Bedrock

Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by fredflinstone »

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/analyst ... 44620.html

"When we have so much liquidity pervasive throughout the system and it has to have somewhere to go. So it's really hard to fight this melt-up at this particular point. That's something to consider in the short term. But I think in the long term, you still need to be aware of the fundamentals and what you own. And there may be some upside there. But going forward into the fall, there may be some downside, too."

Hard to disagree with that.
theorist
Posts: 1329
Joined: Sat Sep 28, 2019 11:39 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by theorist »

This is pretty bold: the analyst doesn’t even mention the possibility of a sideways market!
runninginvestor
Posts: 1795
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:00 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by runninginvestor »

She's not just an analyst, she's an owner/president of a capital management company and adjunct professor in finance.
Grt2bOutdoors
Posts: 25617
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:20 pm
Location: New York

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

runninginvestor wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:53 am She's not just an analyst, she's an owner/president of a capital management company and adjunct professor in finance.
She’s really going out on a limb with that prediction. :oops:
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 14088
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by Stinky »

I’m going to abandon Boglehead investing principles and do whatever this analyst recommends.

Now, what exactly does she want me to do? :oops:
Retired life insurance company financial executive who sincerely believes that ”It’s a GREAT day to be alive!”
tigermilk
Posts: 866
Joined: Thu Aug 15, 2013 9:32 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by tigermilk »

There will be a cat 5 hurricane.... at some point

There will be a 7.0+ earthquake ... at some point

Eggs will go on sale ... at some point
grok87
Posts: 10512
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by grok87 »

so i read the article. the headline is not something she said. i don't think there is any useful advice but this quote is interesting

"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."

Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
RIP Mr. Bogle.
runninginvestor
Posts: 1795
Joined: Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:00 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by runninginvestor »

Grt2bOutdoors wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:05 am
runninginvestor wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:53 am She's not just an analyst, she's an owner/president of a capital management company and adjunct professor in finance.
She’s really going out on a limb with that prediction. :oops:
To be fair, if I were to invest with an advisor, I wouldn't want one with strong convictions either (going all in on one idea, company, philosophy). I'd stick around a little while longer to listen to an advisor that tries to flesh out a little more nuance. Which often sounds like hedging both sides when talking about markets & predictions. I'd rather see more investment articles try to give reason and theory as to why the market could go in either direction, than just give a point in time prediction in one sitting.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 21246
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by HomerJ »

grok87 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:44 am so i read the article. the headline is not something she said. i don't think there is any useful advice but this quote is interesting

"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."

Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
I was in a store yesterday and I didn't hear anyone talking about the prices.

Any of you go to stores where everyone is chattering loudly about the prices?

I haven't seen much of an uptick myself. But then we always look for sales. So far, sale prices seem about the same.
"The best tools available to us are shovels, not scalpels. Don't get carried away." - vanBogle59
z3r0c00l
Posts: 3790
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:43 am
Location: NYC

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by z3r0c00l »

The doom-and-gloom set are doomed to be wrong most of the time since stocks go up most of the time. Corporations are making money and so stocks should go up, it's that simple. Any attempt at predicting more than that centuries-long trend is going to be a coin flip.
70% Global Stocks / 30% Bonds
ActionJackson
Posts: 74
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 8:25 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by ActionJackson »

He's not wrong.
In the parlance of the headline: "I may be wrong, but I may be right."
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by nigel_ht »

Given how compressed the 2020 crash was if today is the roaring 20's is it really going to be 1929 by fall?
mancich
Posts: 1217
Joined: Fri Sep 05, 2014 2:05 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by mancich »

How prescient...
phxjcc
Posts: 1329
Joined: Thu Aug 23, 2018 3:47 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by phxjcc »

"Periods of increasing darkness tonight following sundown, followed by increasing light tomorrow after sunrise.
This pattern will repeat far into the future without interruption."

//begin rant**
Just another talking head filling in the gaps between commercials,

The only better job than a Financial Analyst on TV discussing the reason why the market performed like it did (past tense)?

The weather guesser's telling us what the temperature was today--past tense.

An alternative?
The morons that are put on the tube telling us what is going to happen in the future.
The ONLY ONE that ever held them accountable that I can remember was Louis Rukeyser--he had his mid-year and end-year round up where he held them accountable for their predictions.

Heaven forbid that this ever happens today.

(Ref: Jim Cramer, Feb 2000 predictions)

No accountability, period.

It is the finance industry's equivalent of WWF/WCW to competitive athletics (known as "Sports Entertainment Television")

IMNSHO, it should be called "Financial Market Entertainment Television"

**end rant//
User avatar
JoeRetire
Posts: 15381
Joined: Tue Jan 16, 2018 1:44 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by JoeRetire »

This reads like yet another rant about clickbait. Yet it intrigued you enough to click.

I'm not sure the point of these kinds of threads, if the answer is that obvious. Is any part of this "actionable"?
This isn't just my wallet. It's an organizer, a memory and an old friend.
Grt2bOutdoors
Posts: 25617
Joined: Thu Apr 05, 2007 8:20 pm
Location: New York

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by Grt2bOutdoors »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:19 am
grok87 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:44 am so i read the article. the headline is not something she said. i don't think there is any useful advice but this quote is interesting

"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."

Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
I was in a store yesterday and I didn't hear anyone talking about the prices.

Any of you go to stores where everyone is chattering loudly about the prices?

I haven't seen much of an uptick myself. But then we always look for sales. So far, sale prices seem about the same.
I’m seeing people “talk” about prices in an indirect manner - they either purchase less or none of the product. That in a way is letting their wallet send a message to store managers that the prices are too high (talking about products or services that were normally in higher demand).
"One should invest based on their need, ability and willingness to take risk - Larry Swedroe" Asking Portfolio Questions
Actin
Posts: 259
Joined: Wed May 16, 2018 8:40 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by Actin »

I'm going to keep saying this every time someone says there's a crash coming.

Show me your 100x leveraged shorts on the S&P or shut up.

The doomsday crowd needs to get called out more. There's no penalty for these gurus that keep being wrong year after year. Then one of them does inevitably gets calls it and everyone thinks he's a genius, despite being wrong for a decade.
User avatar
Toons
Posts: 14459
Joined: Fri Nov 21, 2008 9:20 am
Location: Hills of Tennessee

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by Toons »

"And there may be some upside there. But going forward into the fall, there may be some downside, too."

I can recall statements like this being said over the years since I started investing in
1980
Dow 887

:mrgreen:
"One does not accumulate but eliminate. It is not daily increase but daily decrease. The height of cultivation always runs to simplicity" –Bruce Lee
DB2
Posts: 1396
Joined: Thu Jan 17, 2019 9:07 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by DB2 »

Actin wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:20 pm I'm going to keep saying this every time someone says there's a crash coming.

Show me your 100x leveraged shorts on the S&P or shut up.

The doomsday crowd needs to get called out more. There's no penalty for these gurus that keep being wrong year after year. Then one of them does inevitably gets calls it and everyone thinks he's a genius, despite being wrong for a decade.
Agreed. Grantham and Dent immediately come to mind.
grok87
Posts: 10512
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by grok87 »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:19 am
grok87 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 7:44 am so i read the article. the headline is not something she said. i don't think there is any useful advice but this quote is interesting

"MICHELLE CONNELL: It's probably the same question or concern that investors are discussing or a consumer in the store-- like, yesterday I was in a store in Dallas-Fort Worth, and everybody's talking about the prices. It's inflation. And especially for clients that are close to retirement or in distribution phase, they're really concerned if their portfolio is going to last. Or if it's going to last, is it going to maintain their lifestyle? So those are the calls that I'm getting. They-- of course, they appreciate the melt-up, but is this money going to last? That's the number one call that I'm getting from most of my clients."

Reading between the lines, i think near-retirees/retirees are worried about a high inflation scenario coupled with poor stock market performance. I think that's a valid concern. IIRC the worst year for a 4% SWR was 1966 when this sort of scenario played out and the SWR strategy failed after 33 years.
viewtopic.php?p=6011838#p6011838
I was in a store yesterday and I didn't hear anyone talking about the prices.

Any of you go to stores where everyone is chattering loudly about the prices?

I haven't seen much of an uptick myself. But then we always look for sales. So far, sale prices seem about the same.
maybe she as in a used car store? or at a lumber yard ?
RIP Mr. Bogle.
stocknoob4111
Posts: 3495
Joined: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:52 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by stocknoob4111 »

I made this prediction too, that it will go down at some point but may go up first.. however I was not paid for this rigorous analysis
Normchad
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2011 6:20 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by Normchad »

Total word salad. And in the quote from OP, they don’t actually say anything at all.

I think it was stocknoob that nailed the BH2020 contest. I will lesson to stocknoob, but ignore everybody else.
Normchad
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu Mar 03, 2011 6:20 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by Normchad »

Normchad wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 10:08 pm Total word salad. And in the quote from OP, they don’t actually say anything at all.

I think it was stocknoob that nailed the BH2020 contest. I will lesson to stocknoob, but ignore everybody else.
I’ll further predict that at some point, my kid will look at the stock prices of 2021 and shake their head in disbelief at how cheap they were.
User avatar
drumboy256
Posts: 673
Joined: Sat Jun 06, 2020 2:21 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by drumboy256 »

SP500 will probably hit 5200 before we get a correction at this point. :sharebeer
Promise is one thing. Fulfilling that promise is quite another. - Sir Alex Ferguson | 20% IVV / 40% IBIT / 20% IXUS / 20% VGLT + chill
heyyou
Posts: 4452
Joined: Tue Feb 20, 2007 3:58 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by heyyou »

Firesign Theater: Midnight news of "Big light in sky forecast for this morning."
User avatar
HanSolo
Posts: 2286
Joined: Thu Jul 19, 2012 3:18 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by HanSolo »

JoeRetire wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:59 pm Is any part of this "actionable"?
Yes. The action would be for the OP to send their "snoozing Fred Flintstone" avatar image to the article author... no words, just the image.
Strategic Macro Senior (top 1%, 2019 Bogleheads Contest)
adestefan
Posts: 581
Joined: Fri Jan 06, 2017 7:22 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by adestefan »

grok87 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:57 pm
maybe she as in a used car store? or at a lumber yard ?
Lumber prices are currently tumbling and retail prices have come way down since the spring. Still not at pre-pandemic levels, but they’re getting there.
backpacker61
Posts: 1608
Joined: Wed May 20, 2020 6:36 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by backpacker61 »

phxjcc wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 1:23 pm
The ONLY ONE that ever held them accountable that I can remember was Louis Rukeyser--he had his mid-year and end-year round up where he held them accountable for their predictions.

Heaven forbid that this ever happens today.
Yes, and Louis Rukeyser was even funny, too!
“Now shall I walk or shall I ride? | 'Ride,' Pleasure said; | 'Walk,' Joy replied.” | | ― W.H. Davies
grok87
Posts: 10512
Joined: Tue Feb 27, 2007 8:00 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by grok87 »

adestefan wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 5:33 am
grok87 wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:57 pm
maybe she as in a used car store? or at a lumber yard ?
Lumber prices are currently tumbling and retail prices have come way down since the spring. Still not at pre-pandemic levels, but they’re getting there.
thanks.
looks like they have had quite the rollercoaster ride this year
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/commodities/lbs
RIP Mr. Bogle.
User avatar
RickBoglehead
Posts: 7852
Joined: Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:10 am
Location: In a house

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by RickBoglehead »

HomerJ wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:19 am
I was in a store yesterday and I didn't hear anyone talking about the prices.

Any of you go to stores where everyone is chattering loudly about the prices?

I haven't seen much of an uptick myself. But then we always look for sales. So far, sale prices seem about the same.
I don't have conversations in stores regardless. :D

I'm have seen stories about major companies raising prices.

Yes, we have noticed an uptick in the prices of specific things, and moreso the lack of sales on items that we often bought on sale pre-pandemic. We always got milk for $1.99 or less per gallon. Now it's regularly $2.75 or higher.

We bought eggs on sale for $.49 or $.75 per dozen, now $1.05 or higher. Sugar was always a regular sale item, no longer.

Watch carefully for size reductions without price increases.
Avid user of forums on variety of interests-financial, home brewing, F-150, EV, home repair, etc. Enjoy learning & passing on knowledge. It's PRINCIPAL, not PRINCIPLE. I ADVISE you to seek ADVICE.
GoneOnTilt
Posts: 1841
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by GoneOnTilt »

z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:36 am The doom-and-gloom set are doomed to be wrong most of the time since stocks go up most of the time. Corporations are making money and so stocks should go up, it's that simple. Any attempt at predicting more than that centuries-long trend is going to be a coin flip.
This is a great reminder. Thanks. We don't own lottery tickets (Peter Lynch paraphrase). We own shares of companies that create things and earn profits.
GoneOnTilt
Posts: 1841
Joined: Fri Sep 28, 2018 4:59 pm

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by GoneOnTilt »

RickBoglehead wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 6:35 am Watch carefully for size reductions without price increases.
^^ Interesting piece on the Marketplace podcast the other day about "shrinkflation."
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by nigel_ht »

Actin wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:20 pm I'm going to keep saying this every time someone says there's a crash coming.

Show me your 100x leveraged shorts on the S&P or shut up.

The doomsday crowd needs to get called out more. There's no penalty for these gurus that keep being wrong year after year. Then one of them does inevitably gets calls it and everyone thinks he's a genius, despite being wrong for a decade.
So there is no crash coming and we can see your 100x leverage buys on the S&P?

Yes, there's a crash coming. Hence my larger than desired bond allocation (ie > 0%). If I felt strongly that a crash wasn't going to happen over the next year I'd be 100% UPRO.
nigel_ht
Posts: 4742
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 9:14 am

Re: Actual headline: "Analyst: A stock market pullback is 'going to happen at some point.'"

Post by nigel_ht »

GoneOnTilt wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 8:03 am
z3r0c00l wrote: Mon Jul 26, 2021 8:36 am The doom-and-gloom set are doomed to be wrong most of the time since stocks go up most of the time. Corporations are making money and so stocks should go up, it's that simple. Any attempt at predicting more than that centuries-long trend is going to be a coin flip.
This is a great reminder. Thanks. We don't own lottery tickets (Peter Lynch paraphrase). We own shares of companies that create things and earn profits.
With this as a basis for investment then valuations should matter a lot more to investors than has been evidenced by actual recent market behavior...

The doom and gloom set is essentially folks that look at current price vs how much profit is being made and how much is expected in the future and thinking "Whoa...those are seriously out of whack".

The issue is in the past they've stayed seriously out of whack a lot longer than you'd think they could. If you left more on the table than you would have lost then staying in a more aggressive AA is the better course of action...
Post Reply