U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Discuss all general (i.e. non-personal) investing questions and issues, investing news, and theory.
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:41 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:58 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:46 pm stocks are on sale!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quality- ... 55120.html
I recommend to find some AA you're comfortable holding. 20/80(cash) is on the conservative side, but if that's what you want then stick with that.
I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Then you should go 0/100.

If you can reach your retirement goal with 0/100, be 0/100....
Given the current environment, and actually pretty much most of the time since 2009 (negative real rates), that is impossible. I'm being forced into stocks just like pension funds.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 16899
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:01 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:15 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Well, I think 0/100(cash) is a bit crazy as you're almost certain to lose out vs inflation. Personally I'd go 100/0 in 401K and just forget it, unless you need to access the money. But this is unlikely as you have lots of cash elsewhere.
The thought it makes me very nervous even though I think it's the right thing to do given the environment we are in.
There's your problem. Quit thinking about what you should do based on the "environment we are in". Mostly because you're incapable (ALL OF US are) of knowing what "environment we are in".

Pick something that you can hold through ALL environments, and then you don't have to successfully market-time anymore. You're obviously terrible at it (WE ALL are). You were in cash for the past 10 years during a raging bull market. You obviously cannot determine "the environment we are in" correctly.
Last edited by HomerJ on Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:49 am, edited 1 time in total.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 16899
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:44 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:41 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:58 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:46 pm stocks are on sale!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quality- ... 55120.html
I recommend to find some AA you're comfortable holding. 20/80(cash) is on the conservative side, but if that's what you want then stick with that.
I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Then you should go 0/100.

If you can reach your retirement goal with 0/100, be 0/100....
Given the current environment, and actually pretty much most of the time since 2009 (negative real rates), that is impossible. I'm being forced into stocks just like pension funds.
So if you can't reach your retirement goals with 0/100, then you certainly shouldn't be comfortable with it. It should make you nervous that you won't have enough money to retire with 0/100. And that's BEFORE considering the inflation risk.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 16899
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

[quoting removed content removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]

It's never safe to assume anything, and if you actually believed your own words, you'd be 100% in stocks.

Since you aren't, you don't.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
CurlyDave
Posts: 2744
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

[quoted post and reply removed by admin LadyGeek]

Go back to the rock-solid principles Adam Smith expounded and you will do much better. Adam Smith and Jack Bogle are far better guides to investing than the current fed chairman.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
atdharris
Posts: 929
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

It seems like the Fed has been expanding its powers now for decades. I am assuming the Fed will accommodate investors because they have the last two major stock market crashes (2008, 2020) and the major correct (2018 by backing off rate hikes after the 20% drop). They didn't so much in 2000 and we saw how long it took for the market and economy to recover. Perhaps I am wrong, but I am 100% stock because 1) I have a long horizon and 2) based on most recent history, the Fed has acted to accommodate investors.
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

atdharris wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:38 am It seems like the Fed has been expanding its powers now for decades. I am assuming the Fed will accommodate investors because they have the last two major stock market crashes (2008, 2020) and the major correct (2018 by backing off rate hikes after the 20% drop). They didn't so much in 2000 and we saw how long it took for the market and economy to recover. Perhaps I am wrong, but I am 100% stock because 1) I have a long horizon and 2) based on most recent history, the Fed has acted to accommodate investors.
When did you go 100% stock?
atdharris
Posts: 929
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:39 am
atdharris wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 9:38 am It seems like the Fed has been expanding its powers now for decades. I am assuming the Fed will accommodate investors because they have the last two major stock market crashes (2008, 2020) and the major correct (2018 by backing off rate hikes after the 20% drop). They didn't so much in 2000 and we saw how long it took for the market and economy to recover. Perhaps I am wrong, but I am 100% stock because 1) I have a long horizon and 2) based on most recent history, the Fed has acted to accommodate investors.
When did you go 100% stock?
May 2020. I held 10% in TLT for a few years in my taxable account. When it spiked during the crash and the Fed dropped rates to 0%, I dumped it and went all in on VTI/VEA/VWO. My 401k and Roth have always been 100% stock. I don't see the upside in bond funds now with rates where they are. I see it as I will only lose money as the Fed hikes rates, if they even do that. For all we know, inflation may taper off and we're back to 0% rates for the foreseeable future.
Silverado
Posts: 740
Joined: Fri Oct 18, 2013 6:07 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Silverado »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:58 am [quoting removed content removed by moderator oldcomputerguy]

It's never safe to assume anything, and if you actually believed your own words, you'd be 100% in stocks.

Since you aren't, you don't.
Tracking anoop's position is like the time my cat got a glue trap stuck to his tail. Pretty sure he went this way, but there is no true sign.

Now, isn’t it about time for some good old fashioned late morning climb?
Marseille07
Posts: 4616
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:01 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:15 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Well, I think 0/100(cash) is a bit crazy as you're almost certain to lose out vs inflation. Personally I'd go 100/0 in 401K and just forget it, unless you need to access the money. But this is unlikely as you have lots of cash elsewhere.
The thought it makes me very nervous even though I think it's the right thing to do given the environment we are in.
I didn't say anything about the environment we are in. I'm 100/0 in 401K for just about a decade. In 2012 I ran into someone who recommended holding S&P500. I didn't know Bogleheads back then but that was my introduction to the idea, and I naively followed it. Turned out it was a good decision.
xraygoggles
Posts: 173
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:30 pm
Location: SoCal

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by xraygoggles »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:44 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:41 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 11:58 pm
anoop wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 10:46 pm stocks are on sale!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/quality- ... 55120.html
I recommend to find some AA you're comfortable holding. 20/80(cash) is on the conservative side, but if that's what you want then stick with that.
I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Then you should go 0/100.

If you can reach your retirement goal with 0/100, be 0/100....
Given the current environment, and actually pretty much most of the time since 2009 (negative real rates), that is impossible. I'm being forced into stocks just like pension funds.
But the pension funds know something that you don't apparently: stonks only go up.
nigel_ht
Posts: 2536
Joined: Tue Jan 01, 2019 10:14 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:46 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:01 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:15 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Well, I think 0/100(cash) is a bit crazy as you're almost certain to lose out vs inflation. Personally I'd go 100/0 in 401K and just forget it, unless you need to access the money. But this is unlikely as you have lots of cash elsewhere.
The thought it makes me very nervous even though I think it's the right thing to do given the environment we are in.
There's your problem. Quit thinking about what you should do based on the "environment we are in". Mostly because you're incapable (ALL OF US are) of knowing what "environment we are in".

Pick something that you can hold through ALL environments, and then you don't have to successfully market-time anymore. You're obviously terrible at it (WE ALL are). You were in cash for the past 10 years during a raging bull market. You obviously cannot determine "the environment we are in" correctly.
That’s the point…something he can hold is 0/100 but it doesn’t get him to the end goal.

The whole thing about AA is over 30 years of accumulation 100/0 has the best historical results. Any other AA is subjective based on on “risk tolerance”.

If market timing makes him happy, as long as he doesn’t sell for a loss in a down market, he likely beats 0/100.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 16899
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

nigel_ht wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:30 am If market timing makes him happy, as long as he doesn’t sell for a loss in a down market, he likely beats 0/100.
Heh, that's an interesting point.

But I think that someone whose starting point is 0/100 is very likely to sell for a loss in a down market.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lostdog wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:21 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:53 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:43 pm What a great day. I'm starting to believe that the poster lostdog has something special here.
Maybe we could get the Bogle Center to fund lostdog’s gym membership. :D

That seems to be the least we could do. I think that Boglehead Nation is richer because of lostdog’s exercise. :moneybag
I pick the elliptical in front of the TV that is displaying CNBC. I was witnessing the melt up and upped the resistance from 8 to 10. I'm beat.
Can you please go to the gym today?
jarjarM
Posts: 1205
Joined: Mon Jul 16, 2018 1:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jarjarM »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:26 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:21 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:53 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:43 pm What a great day. I'm starting to believe that the poster lostdog has something special here.
Maybe we could get the Bogle Center to fund lostdog’s gym membership. :D

That seems to be the least we could do. I think that Boglehead Nation is richer because of lostdog’s exercise. :moneybag
I pick the elliptical in front of the TV that is displaying CNBC. I was witnessing the melt up and upped the resistance from 8 to 10. I'm beat.
Can you please go to the gym today?
I'm seeing a bit of a melt up, maybe lostdog is already in the gym.
Flyer24
Moderator
Posts: 3248
Joined: Sun Apr 08, 2018 4:21 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Flyer24 »

A trolling member’s post was deleted. Please move along.
lostdog
Posts: 4251
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

jarjarM wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:42 pm
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:26 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:21 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:53 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:43 pm What a great day. I'm starting to believe that the poster lostdog has something special here.
Maybe we could get the Bogle Center to fund lostdog’s gym membership. :D

That seems to be the least we could do. I think that Boglehead Nation is richer because of lostdog’s exercise. :moneybag
I pick the elliptical in front of the TV that is displaying CNBC. I was witnessing the melt up and upped the resistance from 8 to 10. I'm beat.
Can you please go to the gym today?
I'm seeing a bit of a melt up, maybe lostdog is already in the gym.
Just arrived at the park. It's bike day. Chilling at the picnic table eating lunch.
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:50 pm
jarjarM wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:42 pm
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:26 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:21 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:53 pm

Maybe we could get the Bogle Center to fund lostdog’s gym membership. :D

That seems to be the least we could do. I think that Boglehead Nation is richer because of lostdog’s exercise. :moneybag
I pick the elliptical in front of the TV that is displaying CNBC. I was witnessing the melt up and upped the resistance from 8 to 10. I'm beat.
Can you please go to the gym today?
I'm seeing a bit of a melt up, maybe lostdog is already in the gym.
Just arrived at the park. It's bike day. Chilling at the picnic table eating lunch.
At least get back on the bike then -- we got barely 2 hours to go and there's been no movement. You can chill after the markets close.
User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 3974
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:50 pm
jarjarM wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:42 pm
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:26 pm
lostdog wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 3:21 pm
Stinky wrote: Tue Jun 22, 2021 2:53 pm

Maybe we could get the Bogle Center to fund lostdog’s gym membership. :D

That seems to be the least we could do. I think that Boglehead Nation is richer because of lostdog’s exercise. :moneybag
I pick the elliptical in front of the TV that is displaying CNBC. I was witnessing the melt up and upped the resistance from 8 to 10. I'm beat.
Can you please go to the gym today?
I'm seeing a bit of a melt up, maybe lostdog is already in the gym.
Just arrived at the park. It's bike day. Chilling at the picnic table eating lunch.
Man, I'm beginning to hate Wednesdays :wink:

Just keep following your regular schedule! It has been working like a charm. Let's not jinx it by getting too greedy and trying to manipulate the markets.
Marseille07
Posts: 4616
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

The poster lostdog didn't hit the gym today? What's going on here.
User avatar
Doom&Gloom
Posts: 3974
Joined: Thu May 08, 2014 3:36 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Doom&Gloom »

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 3:02 pm The poster lostdog didn't hit the gym today? What's going on here.
Consolidation.
lostdog
Posts: 4251
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

No gym today. Rest day for the muscles. Bike day and chill day.
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Fidelity has a link to this on their home page.
https://www.investor.gov/additional-res ... know-risks

This is a cool pic. Especially the post-it at the bottom right
https://www.investor.gov/sites/investor ... 0Board.jpg
What is 72 divided by 0?
Last edited by anoop on Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 16899
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

lostdog wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 5:46 pm No gym today. Rest day for the muscles. Bike day and chill day.
Maybe you should switch rest day to Saturday or Sunday. :)
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
User avatar
JoMoney
Posts: 11732
Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2013 5:31 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by JoMoney »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:03 pm...
This is a cool pic. Especially the post-it at the bottom right
https://www.investor.gov/sites/investor ... 0Board.jpg
What is 72 divided by 0?
The answer is many Americans retirement portfolio.
"To achieve satisfactory investment results is easier than most people realize; to achieve superior results is harder than it looks." - Benjamin Graham
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 8164
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 11:03 pm This is a cool pic. Especially the post-it at the bottom right

https://www.investor.gov/sites/investor ... 0Board.jpg

What is 72 divided by 0?
Yes, it takes a mighty long time to double your money when a “high yield” savings account pays 0.5% or less.
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
User avatar
Stinky
Posts: 8164
Joined: Mon Jun 12, 2017 11:38 am
Location: Sweet Home Alabama

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
User avatar
jason2459
Posts: 995
Joined: Wed May 06, 2020 7:59 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jason2459 »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
Stonks
"In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it is a weighing machine" ~Benjamin Graham
lazynovice
Posts: 1823
Joined: Mon Apr 16, 2012 10:48 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lazynovice »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
The only thing I see in the news this morning is we have fewer jobless claims than expected.
“I didn’t want my sailboat to be in the driveway when I died.” Nomadland
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
YOLO
atdharris
Posts: 929
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

lazynovice wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:19 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
The only thing I see in the news this morning is we have fewer jobless claims than expected.
Actually, we had more jobless claims than expected. 411,000 vs 380,000 as expected. Remember, bad news is great news for the market
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lazynovice wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:19 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
The only thing I see in the news this morning is we have fewer jobless claims than expected.
Fewer than last week, but moar than expected.
lostdog
Posts: 4251
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2016 2:15 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Reinvested my dividends received from VXUS and I'll be heading to the gym around lunch time.
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

lostdog wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:26 am Reinvested my dividends received from VXUS and I'll be heading to the gym around lunch time.
If you're at the gym, then it's not lunch time.
z3r0c00l
Posts: 2440
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2012 11:43 am
Location: NYC

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by z3r0c00l »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
Some progress made towards bipartisan infrastructure bill.
100% Global Stocks / Ibond Emergency Fund
xraygoggles
Posts: 173
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:30 pm
Location: SoCal

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by xraygoggles »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
Rocketship, diamond-hands, moon smiling emojis.

That answer your question?
CurlyDave
Posts: 2744
Joined: Thu Jul 28, 2016 11:37 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
FOMO and TINA for the win.

NASDAQ again leads the pack, and where NASDAQ goes, QQQ will surely follow.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
oilrig
Posts: 228
Joined: Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:25 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by oilrig »

atdharris wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:22 am
lazynovice wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:19 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
The only thing I see in the news this morning is we have fewer jobless claims than expected.
Remember, bad news is great news for the market
I know this is true, Ive seen it time and time again. But why is it true?
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

oilrig wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:56 am
atdharris wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:22 am
lazynovice wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:19 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
The only thing I see in the news this morning is we have fewer jobless claims than expected.
Remember, bad news is great news for the market
I know this is true, Ive seen it time and time again. But why is it true?
There is no danger of the punch bowl being taken away.
atdharris
Posts: 929
Joined: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:18 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

oilrig wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 10:56 am
atdharris wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:22 am
lazynovice wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 9:19 am
Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 8:51 am New highs this morning.

FOMO? TINA? Or something else?

The rally continues unabated.
The only thing I see in the news this morning is we have fewer jobless claims than expected.
Remember, bad news is great news for the market
I know this is true, Ive seen it time and time again. But why is it true?
Because if the economic recovery is too strong, the market fears the Fed will be forced to raise rates and taper faster than anticipated.

If we see slower growth and a weaker labor market, the market thinks the Fed will keep rates at 0 and continue with heavy QE.
User avatar
sperry8
Posts: 2428
Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 9:25 pm
Location: Miami FL

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by sperry8 »

HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:46 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:01 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:15 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Well, I think 0/100(cash) is a bit crazy as you're almost certain to lose out vs inflation. Personally I'd go 100/0 in 401K and just forget it, unless you need to access the money. But this is unlikely as you have lots of cash elsewhere.
The thought it makes me very nervous even though I think it's the right thing to do given the environment we are in.
There's your problem. Quit thinking about what you should do based on the "environment we are in". Mostly because you're incapable (ALL OF US are) of knowing what "environment we are in".

Pick something that you can hold through ALL environments, and then you don't have to successfully market-time anymore. You're obviously terrible at it (WE ALL are). You were in cash for the past 10 years during a raging bull market. You obviously cannot determine "the environment we are in" correctly.
Well said. I struggle to understand this obsession with trying to beat the market. Time and time again people prove it is almost impossible to do. People lose much more money trying to beat it than they would if they just stayed in it.
BH contests: 2020 #253 of 664 | 19 #233 of 645 | 18 #150 of 493 | 17 #516 of 647 | 16 #121 of 610 | 15 #18 of 552 | 14 #225 of 503 | 13 #383 of 433 | 12 #366 of 410 | 11 #113 of 369 | 10 #53 of 282
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

sperry8 wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:05 am
HomerJ wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 8:46 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 1:01 am
Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:15 am
anoop wrote: Wed Jun 23, 2021 12:07 am I'm most comfortable with 0/100. What do you suggest, chair Powell?
Well, I think 0/100(cash) is a bit crazy as you're almost certain to lose out vs inflation. Personally I'd go 100/0 in 401K and just forget it, unless you need to access the money. But this is unlikely as you have lots of cash elsewhere.
The thought it makes me very nervous even though I think it's the right thing to do given the environment we are in.
There's your problem. Quit thinking about what you should do based on the "environment we are in". Mostly because you're incapable (ALL OF US are) of knowing what "environment we are in".

Pick something that you can hold through ALL environments, and then you don't have to successfully market-time anymore. You're obviously terrible at it (WE ALL are). You were in cash for the past 10 years during a raging bull market. You obviously cannot determine "the environment we are in" correctly.
Well said. I struggle to understand this obsession with trying to beat the market. Time and time again people prove it is almost impossible to do. People lose much more money trying to beat it than they would if they just stayed in it.
Everyone equates being out of the market with trying to time it. I was out of the market because I wanted to invest conservatively. It was possible to make it without investing in stocks prior to the GFC. That is what e.g. books like Worry Free Investing by Zvi Bodie were about. Post GFC, we entered major manipulation by the fed and the manipulation never went away. This means no matter how risk averse one is or how ethically conflicted one is about investing in stocks, TINA. The fed literally equates a 401k with stocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBTfIIm-sgU&t=3401s
Marseille07
Posts: 4616
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:14 am Everyone equates being out of the market with trying to time it. I was out of the market because I wanted to invest conservatively. It was possible to make it without investing in stocks prior to the GFC. That is what e.g. books like Worry Free Investing by Zvi Bodie were about. Post GFC, we entered major manipulation by the fed and the manipulation never went away. This means no matter how risk averse one is or how ethically conflicted one is about investing in stocks, TINA. The fed literally equates a 401k with stocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBTfIIm-sgU&t=3401s
It's OK to be conservative. You aren't timing the market.

Maybe your fear is that while you probably know deep down you've already missed out on a bull market, if you decide to enter now the Fed might stop the manipulation?

I'm DCAing myself because I want to limit the downside moreso than maximizing the upside. Investors have different priorities and that's perfectly fine.
User avatar
HomerJ
Posts: 16899
Joined: Fri Jun 06, 2008 12:50 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by HomerJ »

anoop wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:14 amEveryone equates being out of the market with trying to time it. I was out of the market because I wanted to invest conservatively. It was possible to make it without investing in stocks prior to the GFC.
Okay, this makes more sense.

So 3%-4% from bonds or CDs was good enough for you to meet your goals in the past, but now that rates are so low, you feel you are being forced to invest in stocks.

Makes sense. You are now going to have to learn about how stocks work, so that you don't make behavioral mistakes that derail your retirement goals.

You've got 50% of your 401k in stocks now, and that's 20% of your entire portfolio?

20/80 is a good place for you to start... you're going to have to learn to not make large changes to your stock portfolio. Commit to the 20%.

The market may crash, the value may go down, but you'll need to stay the course, and wait for the market to recover and move on to new heights,

The long-term nominal 10% annual return of the stock market INCLUDES the crashes. In the past, you could hold right through them, and still make a lot of money over the long-run.

But if you're going to jump out the next time the market goes down 20% or because you read something on the Internet that scares you, you might end up LOSING money in the stock market. And that's even worse for your goals than low returns from bonds/CDs.
A Goldman Sachs associate provided a variety of detailed explanations, but then offered a caveat, “If I’m being dead-### honest, though, nobody knows what’s really going on.”
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:33 am You've got 50% of your 401k in stocks now, and that's 20% of your entire portfolio?
Yes.
Triple digit golfer
Posts: 7900
Joined: Mon May 18, 2009 5:57 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

HomerJ wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:33 am
anoop wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:14 amEveryone equates being out of the market with trying to time it. I was out of the market because I wanted to invest conservatively. It was possible to make it without investing in stocks prior to the GFC.
Okay, this makes more sense.

So 3%-4% from bonds or CDs was good enough for you to meet your goals in the past, but now that rates are so low, you feel you are being forced to invest in stocks.

Makes sense. You are now going to have to learn about how stocks work, so that you don't make behavioral mistakes that derail your retirement goals.

You've got 50% of your 401k in stocks now, and that's 20% of your entire portfolio?

20/80 is a good place for you to start... you're going to have to learn to not make large changes to your stock portfolio. Commit to the 20%.

The market may crash, the value may go down, but you'll need to stay the course, and wait for the market to recover and move on to new heights,

The long-term nominal 10% annual return of the stock market INCLUDES the crashes. In the past, you could hold right through them, and still make a lot of money over the long-run.

But if you're going to jump out the next time the market goes down 20% or because you read something on the Internet that scares you, you might end up LOSING money in the stock market. And that's even worse for your goals than low returns from bonds/CDs.
This is an absolutely perfect example of where contributing to a target date fund and completely ignoring one's portfolio is a good idea.
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:22 am Maybe your fear is that while you probably know deep down you've already missed out on a bull market, if you decide to enter now the Fed might stop the manipulation?
I was expecting the market to return to normal at some point but that doesn't look to be the case. Previously, at least they had a stated upper bound for inflation at 2% so I felt that worst case, I lose 2% purchasing power per year, and I was OK with that.

Now they are letting inflation rip and saying it's transitory even though every CEO out there is saying otherwise. I don't want to find out I lost 10% purchasing power per year, with the fed acting "surprised".

Based on what I have seen so far, I don't think the manipulation will ever stop. On the contrary, congress is now stimulating so we have both monetary and fiscal stimulus. But who knows what will actually happen and I'm getting tired of trying to stay on top of what is going on. So I'm trying to get to a conservative allocation that at least keeps up with inflation.

As I posted elsewhere, I fear we are entering a phase where stocks go up, but inflation outpaces the gains in stocks (the big gains in stocks, at least for this bust cycle, are behind us). But that is to be seen. Keep in mind that most of the increase in stock prices has been via P/E expansion not via true earnings growth. If we remove stock buybacks things look even worse. Inflation won't be kind to earnings, so we will have to depend on further P/E expansion which will happen if the markets continue to be flush with liquidity.
xraygoggles
Posts: 173
Joined: Sat Sep 15, 2018 3:30 pm
Location: SoCal

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by xraygoggles »

anoop wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:51 am As I posted elsewhere, I fear we are entering a phase where stocks go up, but inflation outpaces the gains in stocks (the big gains in stocks, at least for this bust cycle, are behind us). But that is to be seen. Keep in mind that most of the increase in stock prices has been via P/E expansion not via true earnings growth. If we remove stock buybacks things look even worse. Inflation won't be kind to earnings, so we will have to depend on further P/E expansion which will happen if the markets continue to be flush with liquidity.
This is patently false for Big Tech - FAANG and the like. Their PE ratios are commensurate with their earnings growth, and believe it or not, some people think they are currently cheap.
anoop
Posts: 2534
Joined: Tue Mar 04, 2014 1:33 am

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by anoop »

xraygoggles wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:53 am
anoop wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:51 am As I posted elsewhere, I fear we are entering a phase where stocks go up, but inflation outpaces the gains in stocks (the big gains in stocks, at least for this bust cycle, are behind us). But that is to be seen. Keep in mind that most of the increase in stock prices has been via P/E expansion not via true earnings growth. If we remove stock buybacks things look even worse. Inflation won't be kind to earnings, so we will have to depend on further P/E expansion which will happen if the markets continue to be flush with liquidity.
This is patently false for Big Tech - FAANG and the like. Their PE ratios are commensurate with their earnings growth, and believe it or not, some people think they are currently cheap.
Ca. 2013 Apple's PE was around 10. Now it is around 30. Please check your data. Also, like I mentioned, please factor in stock buybacks.
Marseille07
Posts: 4616
Joined: Fri Nov 06, 2020 1:41 pm

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

anoop wrote: Thu Jun 24, 2021 11:51 am Based on what I have seen so far, I don't think the manipulation will ever stop. On the contrary, congress is now stimulating so we have both monetary and fiscal stimulus. But who knows what will actually happen and I'm getting tired of trying to stay on top of what is going on. So I'm trying to get to a conservative allocation that at least keeps up with inflation.
I think this is fine. If 20/80 is comfortable for you then just keep that allocation. It's much better to hold something conservative than to go aggressive then panic sell at the bottom later.
Post Reply