U.S. stocks continue to soar!

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Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

We've done it folks! The SPX sure to close at ATH.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Marseille07 wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 2:26 pm We've done it folks! The SPX sure to close at ATH.
Don’t count your chickens……
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

We did it!
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

"Inflation grew at the fastest rate in more than a decade last month, but CNBC’s Jim Cramer called it the worst kept secret on Wall Street and said the stock market took it in stride."

"Ain't nothin' gonna to break my stride
Nobody gonna slow me down, oh no
I got to keep on movin'"
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:02 pm "Inflation grew at the fastest rate in more than a decade last month, but CNBC’s Jim Cramer called it the worst kept secret on Wall Street and said the stock market took it in stride."

"Ain't nothin' gonna to break my stride
Nobody gonna slow me down, oh no
I got to keep on movin'"
I love these daily updates. Keep them coming.

:sharebeer
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

Robot Monster wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:02 pm "Inflation grew at the fastest rate in more than a decade last month, but CNBC’s Jim Cramer called it the worst kept secret on Wall Street and said the stock market took it in stride."
All I can think of is Alfred E Neuman of Mad Magazine fame saying “What, me worry?”
It's a GREAT day to be alive! - Travis Tritt
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:36 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:02 pm "Inflation grew at the fastest rate in more than a decade last month, but CNBC’s Jim Cramer called it the worst kept secret on Wall Street and said the stock market took it in stride."
All I can think of is Alfred E Neuman of Mad Magazine fame saying “What, me worry?”
Alfred didn't know about trailing stops.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

“Our base view is still that growth and inflation remain buoyant and supportive of risk assets...It’s been interesting to watch rates tick lower and stay lower. That seems to imply the market is believing the Fed is going to remain lower for longer and hold rates there.” link
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:01 pm “Our base view is still that growth and inflation remain buoyant and supportive of risk assets...It’s been interesting to watch rates tick lower and stay lower. That seems to imply the market is believing the Fed is going to remain lower for longer and hold rates there.” link
The Fed's being saying this for a long time but it was the market not believing them and pushed 10Y above 1.70% at one point. Now that we're actually realizing inflation, they start to believe the Fed is amusing to me.
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

The U.S. Stock Market is barely flat today, hardly soaring.
A fool and his money are good for business.
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:26 pm The U.S. Stock Market is barely flat today, hardly soaring.
Does that mean that the stock market has reached "a permanently high plateau"? :D

(Credit to Irving Fisher)
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:37 pm
nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:26 pm The U.S. Stock Market is barely flat today, hardly soaring.
Does that mean that the stock market has reached "a permanently high plateau"? :D

(Credit to Irving Fisher)
We've been hovering all week around ATHs. The good news is, we may be consolidating before another move upward.
livesoft
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by livesoft »

Today had a nice finish. Not sure why. I'm only looking because I hit another MMilestione.
Wiki This signature message sponsored by sscritic: Learn to fish.
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

livesoft wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:04 pm Today had a nice finish. Not sure why. I'm only looking because I hit another MMilestione.
Congrats! Looking forward to seeing it in the Milestone thread. :D
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nedsaid
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nedsaid »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:37 pm
nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:26 pm The U.S. Stock Market is barely flat today, hardly soaring.
Does that mean that the stock market has reached "a permanently high plateau"? :D

(Credit to Irving Fisher)
Well, the market did rally a bit after I posted. The Dow up 13.36, S&P 500 up 8.26, and the NAZZ up 49.09. So I learned another trick here. I can post in the "free fall" thread or I can post here and say that the market isn't doing much in order to get the market to go up. :wink:

Seriously, as noted below, the market has been hovering around all-time highs this week. I don't know the future but I know that from history that the market is up more often than not (60% of all days) and that the long term trend is up. Not sure about the permanently high plateau but probably not.
A fool and his money are good for business.
nigel_ht
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by nigel_ht »

nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 3:59 pm
Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:37 pm
nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:26 pm The U.S. Stock Market is barely flat today, hardly soaring.
Does that mean that the stock market has reached "a permanently high plateau"? :D

(Credit to Irving Fisher)
Well, the market did rally a bit after I posted. The Dow up 13.36, S&P 500 up 8.26, and the NAZZ up 49.09. So I learned another trick here. I can post in the "free fall" thread or I can post here and say that the market isn't doing much in order to get the market to go up. :wink:

Seriously, as noted below, the market has been hovering around all-time highs this week. I don't know the future but I know that from history that the market is up more often than not (60% of all days) and that the long term trend is up. Not sure about the permanently high plateau but probably not.
Oh no, it’s not the roaring 20’s! We’re about to replay 1966…
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Stinky wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:37 pm
nedsaid wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:26 pm The U.S. Stock Market is barely flat today, hardly soaring.
Does that mean that the stock market has reached "a permanently high plateau"? :D

(Credit to Irving Fisher)
A long time ago I saw a movie about that. It was called "High Plains Drifter".
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:13 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:01 pm “Our base view is still that growth and inflation remain buoyant and supportive of risk assets...It’s been interesting to watch rates tick lower and stay lower. That seems to imply the market is believing the Fed is going to remain lower for longer and hold rates there.” link
The Fed's being saying this for a long time but it was the market not believing them and pushed 10Y above 1.70% at one point. Now that we're actually realizing inflation, they start to believe the Fed is amusing to me.
On the latest Bloomberg Real Yield, a guy from JP Morgan laid the blame on a short squeeze. YouTube link
2:51-3:40
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 11:10 pm
Marseille07 wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:13 pm
Robot Monster wrote: Fri Jun 11, 2021 2:01 pm “Our base view is still that growth and inflation remain buoyant and supportive of risk assets...It’s been interesting to watch rates tick lower and stay lower. That seems to imply the market is believing the Fed is going to remain lower for longer and hold rates there.” link
The Fed's being saying this for a long time but it was the market not believing them and pushed 10Y above 1.70% at one point. Now that we're actually realizing inflation, they start to believe the Fed is amusing to me.
On the latest Bloomberg Real Yield, a guy from JP Morgan laid the blame on a short squeeze. YouTube link
2:51-3:40
Whoa, that's super interesting. I can almost hear Dr. Burry saying this: https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/fcd761d2-0 ... 2dff8ac070
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

So, on Wednesday we get the FOMC Announcement and the Fed Chair Press Conference; the quarterly rate-forecast “dot plot” will be released and, according to the 51 economists surveyed by Bloomberg, they predict it will show:

"...the median of 18 officials penciling in at least one 2023 increase. The remainder see no liftoff from near-zero rates until 2024 at the earliest, mirroring the Fed’s forecast in March." link

Of course, from 2018 I remember the WSJ article, "Economists Expect Fed to Continue Raising Rates Through 2019".

"All 58 economists who participated in The Wall Street Journal’s latest survey saw the Fed raising interest rates...Their median forecast calls for three additional increases in 2019 to a range between 3% and 3.25%..."
https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists ... 1542294000

Except, in 2019, they lowered.

***

On a side note I notice that, as of the moment (June 13, 2021) 6 out of the 50 topics on the main page mention the word "inflation".
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
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Forester
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Forester »

We are in the eye of the storm. This is New Years Eve 1999 or early 2008.

Image
TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

Forester wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:19 pm We are in the eye of the storm. This is New Years Eve 1999 or early 2008.
“This message brought to you by the Forester ministry of disinformation…”

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex
lostdog
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by lostdog »

Forester wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:19 pm We are in the eye of the storm. This is New Years Eve 1999 or early 2008.

Image
This should be a good week.
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OohLaLa
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by OohLaLa »

I think that, by now, many of us following this thread have developed a Pavlovian (or Forestian?) reflex. Whenever Forester posts in this thread, we start rubbing our hands together. Add a bit of saliva at the corner of the lip, too, while you're at it.

He's experimenting on us! :mrgreen:
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Stinky
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Stinky »

OohLaLa wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:25 pm I think that, by now, many of us following this thread have developed a Pavlovian (or Forestian?) reflex. Whenever Forester posts in this thread, we start rubbing our hands together. Add a bit of saliva at the corner of the lip, too, while you're at it.

He's experimenting on us! :mrgreen:
I dread the day when Forester turns bullish. :twisted:
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rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Stinky wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:39 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:25 pm I think that, by now, many of us following this thread have developed a Pavlovian (or Forestian?) reflex. Whenever Forester posts in this thread, we start rubbing our hands together. Add a bit of saliva at the corner of the lip, too, while you're at it.

He's experimenting on us! :mrgreen:
I dread the day when Forester turns bullish. :twisted:
Pretty much. He's early. What we don't know is how early.

What we should be looking for is alternative investments that will be the next bull.
TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

rockstar wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:56 pm
Stinky wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:39 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:25 pm I think that, by now, many of us following this thread have developed a Pavlovian (or Forestian?) reflex. Whenever Forester posts in this thread, we start rubbing our hands together. Add a bit of saliva at the corner of the lip, too, while you're at it.

He's experimenting on us! :mrgreen:
I dread the day when Forester turns bullish. :twisted:
Pretty much. He's early. What we don't know is how early.

What we should be looking for is alternative investments that will be the next bull.
Nope. Pretty much the bulk of the nation's retirement assets are and will continue to be invested in stocks/bonds as they are now for the foreseeable future. Quite literally, retirement security depends on market success.

My advice: Give Mr. Chuckles the laughter he deserves, then go on staying the course.

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

TheDDC wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:14 pm
rockstar wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:56 pm
Stinky wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:39 pm
OohLaLa wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:25 pm I think that, by now, many of us following this thread have developed a Pavlovian (or Forestian?) reflex. Whenever Forester posts in this thread, we start rubbing our hands together. Add a bit of saliva at the corner of the lip, too, while you're at it.

He's experimenting on us! :mrgreen:
I dread the day when Forester turns bullish. :twisted:
Pretty much. He's early. What we don't know is how early.

What we should be looking for is alternative investments that will be the next bull.
Nope. Pretty much the bulk of the nation's retirement assets are and will continue to be invested in stocks/bonds as they are now for the foreseeable future. Quite literally, retirement security depends on market success.

-TheDDC
The problem is that those are the only options in 401k programs. However, historically, we have seen bull markets shift to other stuff. Right now, it's clear that it's REITs, real estate, and commodities. Who knows how long this outperformance will last. But those are the areas that are moving higher right now.
TheDDC
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by TheDDC »

rockstar wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:17 pm The problem is that those are the only options in 401k programs. However, historically, we have seen bull markets shift to other stuff. Right now, it's clear that it's REITs, real estate, and commodities. Who knows how long this outperformance will last. But those are the areas that are moving higher right now.
Either Bogleheads are right or they are wrong.

-TheDDC
Rules to wealth building: 75-80% VTSAX piled high and deep, 20-25% VTIAX, 0% given away to banks, minimize amount given to medical-industrial complex
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

rockstar wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:17 pm Right now, it's clear that it's REITs, real estate, and commodities.
Yeah, I saw someone in another thread mention they took positions in both of those. How'd you both know about that? Is there some newsletter I'm missing out on?

You're probably already aware of this, but the David Swensen portfolio is 15% REIT. link So, it's not an unreasonable thing to overweight. Another portfolio in that link has a 5% allocation to global REITs. The Vanguard Global REIT, VNQI, has an 11% exposure to China, which might be a deal killer for some.
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
rockstar
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by rockstar »

Robot Monster wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:10 pm
rockstar wrote: Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:17 pm Right now, it's clear that it's REITs, real estate, and commodities.
Yeah, I saw someone in another thread mention they took positions in both of those. How'd you both know about that? Is there some newsletter I'm missing out on?

You're probably already aware of this, but the David Swensen portfolio is 15% REIT. link So, it's not an unreasonable thing to overweight. Another portfolio in that link has a 5% allocation to global REITs. The Vanguard Global REIT, VNQI, has an 11% exposure to China, which might be a deal killer for some.
I'm in REET and VNQ.

Housing booms usually follow rate drops.

I was not expecting a commodity boom.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

Nice rebound for my tech heavy portfolio over the last 2 weeks. I believe I've finally smashed through my personal all time high
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:28 am Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
One day a trend does not make. YTD return:

QQQ: 8.88%
VOO: 13.83%
IJS: 34.19%
AVUV: 38.57%

There's your rotation.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:59 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:28 am Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
One day a trend does not make. YTD return:

QQQ: 8.88%
VOO: 13.83%
IJS: 34.19%
AVUV: 38.57%

There's your rotation.
Ah yes. But if we look at a whole year of returns, QQQ is ahead. Thereby proving that any desired answer is possible if we torture the data long enough. :D
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
fatcoffeedrinker
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by fatcoffeedrinker »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 9:11 am
fatcoffeedrinker wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:59 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:28 am Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
One day a trend does not make. YTD return:

QQQ: 8.88%
VOO: 13.83%
IJS: 34.19%
AVUV: 38.57%

There's your rotation.
Ah yes. But if we look at a whole year of returns, QQQ is ahead. Thereby proving that any desired answer is possible if we torture the data long enough. :D
Agreed that 5 months is not that long, but you asked about rotation out of 'DAQ, which implies to me recent changes from the prior trend.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:28 am Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
I realize you’ve been in QQQ for a long time and have enjoyed the plentiful bounty. Am curious, would you recommend a QQQ overweight to someone who was looking to invest new money?
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:06 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:28 am Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
I realize you’ve been in QQQ for a long time and have enjoyed the plentiful bounty. Am curious, would you recommend a QQQ overweight to someone who was looking to invest new money?
Not only would I make that recommendation, I have made it to people not on this board.

Now it comes with a caveat. The internet is filled with tools to compare performance between various stocks. Portfolio Visualizer for one. Most brokerages will have such a tool also. About once per quarter compare QQQ vs. SPY (or VOO). If SPY starts to show better performance over a period of about a year, start migrating your holdings to SPY. Lets say at 25% per quarter.

If you want to call that performance-chasing, so be it. Personally I think it is pretty tame stuff. You will not get hurt very badly, and you may just have significant outperformance.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Robot Monster
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Robot Monster »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:38 am
Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:06 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:28 am Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
I realize you’ve been in QQQ for a long time and have enjoyed the plentiful bounty. Am curious, would you recommend a QQQ overweight to someone who was looking to invest new money?
Not only would I make that recommendation, I have made it to people not on this board.

Now it comes with a caveat. The internet is filled with tools to compare performance between various stocks. Portfolio Visualizer for one. Most brokerages will have such a tool also. About once per quarter compare QQQ vs. SPY (or VOO). If SPY starts to show better performance over a period of about a year, start migrating your holdings to SPY. Lets say at 25% per quarter.

If you want to call that performance-chasing, so be it. Personally I think it is pretty tame stuff. You will not get hurt very badly, and you may just have significant outperformance.
Thank you. I appreciate the detailed response on that.
"Picking an AA and sticking with it will get you much better off than any strategy that relies on pontificating on the market." -- our favorite golfer
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:38 am
Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:06 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:28 am Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
I realize you’ve been in QQQ for a long time and have enjoyed the plentiful bounty. Am curious, would you recommend a QQQ overweight to someone who was looking to invest new money?
Not only would I make that recommendation, I have made it to people not on this board.

Now it comes with a caveat. The internet is filled with tools to compare performance between various stocks. Portfolio Visualizer for one. Most brokerages will have such a tool also. About once per quarter compare QQQ vs. SPY (or VOO). If SPY starts to show better performance over a period of about a year, start migrating your holdings to SPY. Lets say at 25% per quarter.

If you want to call that performance-chasing, so be it. Personally I think it is pretty tame stuff. You will not get hurt very badly, and you may just have significant outperformance.
I just hold both 50/50 and buy whichever is cheaper via rebalancing. I don't see why you have to hold one or the other and keep migrating between the two.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:52 am
I just hold both 50/50 and buy whichever is cheaper via rebalancing. I don't see why you have to hold one or the other and keep migrating between the two.
50/50 is clearly another way to get some of the same benefit.

I went completely into QQQ in about 2005 and have never yet tripped the "migrate back" criteria, so the concept of constantly migrating is purely a theoretical possibility so far.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:16 am
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:52 am
...I just hold both 50/50 and buy whichever is cheaper via rebalancing. I don't see why you have to hold one or the other and keep migrating between the two.
50/50 is clearly another way to get some of the same benefit.

I went completely into QQQ in about 2005 and have never yet tripped the "migrate back" criteria, so the concept of constantly migrating is purely a theoretical possibility so far.
Answering a question is easy -- asking the right question is the hard part.
Marseille07
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Marseille07 »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:16 am
Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:52 am
I just hold both 50/50 and buy whichever is cheaper via rebalancing. I don't see why you have to hold one or the other and keep migrating between the two.
50/50 is clearly another way to get some of the same benefit.

I went completely into QQQ in about 2005 and have never yet tripped the "migrate back" criteria, so the concept of constantly migrating is purely a theoretical possibility so far.
Gotcha. I suspect this will eventually happen though. Come 1/1/22 I wouldn't be surprised if SPY ended 2021 higher than QQQ, for example.
jay22
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by jay22 »

I remain bullish on big tech - strong fundaments and fairly valued. Given that, I think we'll continue to see NASDAQ outperform SPY.
CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 11:22 am ... I suspect this will eventually happen though. Come 1/1/22 I wouldn't be surprised if SPY ended 2021 higher than QQQ, for example.
I have no doubt that sooner or later SPY will be a better bet than QQQ. But my point is that "keep migrating" is a little strong for something that hasn't happened yet in 15+ years and might happen once in 16. :happy :happy
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atdharris
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by atdharris »

One of the positives for big tech during this consolidation period is that it has allowed some growth into their valuations. Amazon is trading at historically low levels valuation wise. Facebook has always been on the cheaper side given its growth rate.
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aj76er
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by aj76er »

CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:38 am
Robot Monster wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 10:06 am
CurlyDave wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:28 am Well, once again the 'DAQ is walking all over the S&P.

Where is this rotation I have heard people speak of?
I realize you’ve been in QQQ for a long time and have enjoyed the plentiful bounty. Am curious, would you recommend a QQQ overweight to someone who was looking to invest new money?
Not only would I make that recommendation, I have made it to people not on this board.

Now it comes with a caveat. The internet is filled with tools to compare performance between various stocks. Portfolio Visualizer for one. Most brokerages will have such a tool also. About once per quarter compare QQQ vs. SPY (or VOO). If SPY starts to show better performance over a period of about a year, start migrating your holdings to SPY. Lets say at 25% per quarter.

If you want to call that performance-chasing, so be it. Personally I think it is pretty tame stuff. You will not get hurt very badly, and you may just have significant outperformance.
Hi CurlyDave, thanks for sharing some insight into your methodology! What indices and/or funds do you consider a candidate for rotating into? For example do you track SCV, MCV, LCV, EM, IntlDev in addition to QQQ and SPY?
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CurlyDave
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by CurlyDave »

aj76er wrote: Mon Jun 14, 2021 1:36 pm
Hi CurlyDave, thanks for sharing some insight into your methodology! What indices and/or funds do you consider a candidate for rotating into? For example do you track SCV, MCV, LCV, EM, IntlDev in addition to QQQ and SPY?
For the Boglehead part of our portfolio I only consider SPY and QQQ.

Back in 2005 I put all of my fun money into AAPL -- lost it. (Not literally lost, but it was in a taxable account, and if I sell I am going to have to pay Uncle way more than I want to. So, for right now we use the AAPL for charitable giving. This is a terrible problem to have it is +9600%.) :mrgreen:

I also have some XBI and VGT. DW has her fun money in AMZN.

Very little slicing and dicing for this family.
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by csan »

Red to green
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Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

Post by Triple digit golfer »

Lostdog saved the market today.
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